The techniques to forecast available parking space(APS) are indispensable components for parking guidance systems(PGS). According to the data collected in Newcastle upon Tyne, England, the changing characteristics of ...The techniques to forecast available parking space(APS) are indispensable components for parking guidance systems(PGS). According to the data collected in Newcastle upon Tyne, England, the changing characteristics of APS were studied. Thereafter, aiming to build up a multi-step APS forecasting model that provides richer information than a conventional one-step model, the largest Lyapunov exponents(largest LEs) method was introduced into PGS. By experimental tests conducted using the same dataset, its prediction performance was compared with traditional wavelet neural network(WNN) method in both one-step and multi-step processes. Based on the results, a new multi-step forecasting model called WNN-LE method was proposed, where WNN, which enjoys a more accurate performance along with a better learning ability in short-term forecasting, was applied in the early forecast steps while the Lyapunov exponent prediction method in the latter steps precisely reflect the chaotic feature in latter forecast period. The MSE of APS forecasting for one hour time period can be reduced from 83.1 to 27.1(in a parking building with 492 berths) by using largest LEs method instead of WNN and further reduced to 19.0 by conducted the new method.展开更多
In order to evaluate the operational reliability of Japanese FBR （fast breeder reactor） MONJU, frequencies of important intermediate events and equipment failures resulting during reactor automatic trip are predicte...In order to evaluate the operational reliability of Japanese FBR （fast breeder reactor） MONJU, frequencies of important intermediate events and equipment failures resulting during reactor automatic trip are predicted using FTA （fault tree analysis） technique for the plant system model. The targeted devices are the following： PHTS （primary heat transport system）, SHTS （secondary heat transport system）, WS （water and steam system）, PPS （plant protection system） and PCS （plant control system）. In this paper, the frequency of automatic reactor trips was estimated by extracting and analyzing the important intermediate events and equipment failures covering all the derived fault trees of these systems. The analyses predicted 1.2/RY （reactor year） the value of unplanned shut down frequency by the internal factor of the system. The largest contributed event was function failure of SHTS accounting for 42.6% of total events followed by PHTS with 40.1%. The contribution factor of WS was only 4.4%.展开更多
In this study, we examine the impacts that EVs （electric vehicles） have on vehicle usage patterns and environmental improvements, using our integrated travel demand forecasting model, which can simulate an individua...In this study, we examine the impacts that EVs （electric vehicles） have on vehicle usage patterns and environmental improvements, using our integrated travel demand forecasting model, which can simulate an individual activity-travel behavior in each time period, as well as consider an induced demand by decreasing travel cost. In order to examine the effects that charging/discharging have on the demand in electricity, we analyze scenarios based on the simulation results of the EVs＇ parking location, parking duration and the battery state of charge. From the simulation, result under the ownership rate of EVs in the Nagoya metropolitan area in 2020 is about 6%, which turns out that the total CO2 emissions have decreased by 4% although the situation of urban transport is not changed. After calculating the electricity demand in each zone using architectural area and basic units of hourly power consumption, we evaluate the effect to decrease the peak load by V2G （vehicle-to-grid）. According to the results, if EV drivers charge at home during the night and discharge at work during the day, the electricity demand in Nagoya city increases by approximately 1%, although changes in each individual zone range from -7% to ＋8%, depending on its characteristics.展开更多
This research presents an analysis of travel mode choice for trips to Ho Chi Minh City metro station. Research methods were inherited through a formula to calculate passenger traffic forecasts to predict passengers, g...This research presents an analysis of travel mode choice for trips to Ho Chi Minh City metro station. Research methods were inherited through a formula to calculate passenger traffic forecasts to predict passengers, going to the station. Based on the collected data of interviews, traffic surveys, and ＂Irwin ＆ Von Cube＂ function, forecast the proportion of travel mode, and use to go to the station and leaving from the station. The results of study are used for the purpose of calculating the size of the metro station parking lots and parking layout plan.展开更多
基金Project(2012CB725402)supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of ChinaProjects(51338003,50908051)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The techniques to forecast available parking space(APS) are indispensable components for parking guidance systems(PGS). According to the data collected in Newcastle upon Tyne, England, the changing characteristics of APS were studied. Thereafter, aiming to build up a multi-step APS forecasting model that provides richer information than a conventional one-step model, the largest Lyapunov exponents(largest LEs) method was introduced into PGS. By experimental tests conducted using the same dataset, its prediction performance was compared with traditional wavelet neural network(WNN) method in both one-step and multi-step processes. Based on the results, a new multi-step forecasting model called WNN-LE method was proposed, where WNN, which enjoys a more accurate performance along with a better learning ability in short-term forecasting, was applied in the early forecast steps while the Lyapunov exponent prediction method in the latter steps precisely reflect the chaotic feature in latter forecast period. The MSE of APS forecasting for one hour time period can be reduced from 83.1 to 27.1(in a parking building with 492 berths) by using largest LEs method instead of WNN and further reduced to 19.0 by conducted the new method.
文摘In order to evaluate the operational reliability of Japanese FBR （fast breeder reactor） MONJU, frequencies of important intermediate events and equipment failures resulting during reactor automatic trip are predicted using FTA （fault tree analysis） technique for the plant system model. The targeted devices are the following： PHTS （primary heat transport system）, SHTS （secondary heat transport system）, WS （water and steam system）, PPS （plant protection system） and PCS （plant control system）. In this paper, the frequency of automatic reactor trips was estimated by extracting and analyzing the important intermediate events and equipment failures covering all the derived fault trees of these systems. The analyses predicted 1.2/RY （reactor year） the value of unplanned shut down frequency by the internal factor of the system. The largest contributed event was function failure of SHTS accounting for 42.6% of total events followed by PHTS with 40.1%. The contribution factor of WS was only 4.4%.
文摘In this study, we examine the impacts that EVs （electric vehicles） have on vehicle usage patterns and environmental improvements, using our integrated travel demand forecasting model, which can simulate an individual activity-travel behavior in each time period, as well as consider an induced demand by decreasing travel cost. In order to examine the effects that charging/discharging have on the demand in electricity, we analyze scenarios based on the simulation results of the EVs＇ parking location, parking duration and the battery state of charge. From the simulation, result under the ownership rate of EVs in the Nagoya metropolitan area in 2020 is about 6%, which turns out that the total CO2 emissions have decreased by 4% although the situation of urban transport is not changed. After calculating the electricity demand in each zone using architectural area and basic units of hourly power consumption, we evaluate the effect to decrease the peak load by V2G （vehicle-to-grid）. According to the results, if EV drivers charge at home during the night and discharge at work during the day, the electricity demand in Nagoya city increases by approximately 1%, although changes in each individual zone range from -7% to ＋8%, depending on its characteristics.
文摘This research presents an analysis of travel mode choice for trips to Ho Chi Minh City metro station. Research methods were inherited through a formula to calculate passenger traffic forecasts to predict passengers, going to the station. Based on the collected data of interviews, traffic surveys, and ＂Irwin ＆ Von Cube＂ function, forecast the proportion of travel mode, and use to go to the station and leaving from the station. The results of study are used for the purpose of calculating the size of the metro station parking lots and parking layout plan.
