系统工程与地震预报科学攻关

近几年来,“系统工程”一词在地震预报研究中时有所见。从地震预报本身特点来看,确实是一项系统工程,需要用系统工程的方法来研究。但是,不能不指出亦有滥用之例。 溯“滥用”之源,有如下几处: 第一,对系统概念不清。系统科学发展几十年来,“系统”的涵义是有发展的,普遍推广、应用后更是如此。系统再不能由电路中几个元件所能解释。

落叶松毛虫性信息素监测预报新技术应用初探

指出了松毛虫性信息素技术引诱监测试验,是在林间设置装有性诱剂的诱捕器,通过诱杀雄虫,准确地预测落叶松毛虫的发生期、发生量等。松毛虫性引诱剂,活性高、专一性强、不污染环境,对人畜无害,对天敌安全,害虫不产生抗性,是保护环境有效控制害虫的可行途径之一。

谁能预报下次地震

新世纪的第一年是以地震开始的。1月份印度地震至今造成近2万人死亡，15万人受伤；2月份北美板块的震动使美国、加拿大和萨尔瓦多都遭受了重创。下一次地震会在什么时候，什么地点偷袭我们?不久前，俄国科学家声称，地球表面中子的爆裂能够预示地震来临，这是地震预报科学中的最新发现。但即使如此，全球范围内相当一批科学家仍坚信地震无法预测。果真是这样吗?

砚北煤矿构造型冲击矿压的特点及防治

为了探索砚北煤矿2502采区构造型冲击矿压的来压特征及规律,统计分析了250205上工作面自开采到结束的642次冲击情况。研究了冲击矿压与煤层埋藏深度、运输巷到向斜轴的距离、震动发生的位置、开采强度、工作面推进度、工作面周期来压等方面的关系。初步总结出该面构造型冲击矿压的特点。并采用钻屑法、电磁辐射法、微震法等方法的8项指标开展冲击矿压预测预报,制订了包含以上8项内容的科学预测预报方法。在此基础上,采用深孔切顶、深孔卸压、钻孔注水等方法进行冲击矿压治理,取得了很好的效果,使冲击矿压对安全生产的影响减少95%以上。

The spring prediction barrier in ENSO hindcast experiments using the FGOALS-g model

The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model-gamil (FGOALS-g) was used to study the spring prediction barrier (SPB) in an ensemble system. This coupled model was developed and maintained at the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG). There are two steps in our hindcast experiments. The first is to integrate the coupled model continuously with sea surface temperature (SST) nudging, from 1971 to 2006. The second is to carry out a series of one-year hindcasts without SST nudging, by adopting initial values from the first step on January 1 st , April 1st , July 1st , and October 1st , from 1982 to 2005. We generate 10 ensemble members for a particular start date (1st ) by choosing different atmospheric and land conditions around the hindcast start date (1st through 10th ). To estimate the predicted SST, two methods are used: (1) Anomaly Correlation Coefficient and its rate of decrease; and (2) Talagrand distribution and its standard deviation. Results show that FGOALS-g offers a reliable ensemble system with realistic initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and high anomaly correlation (>0.5) within 6 month lead time. Further, the ensemble approach is effective, in that the anomaly correlation of ensemble mean is much higher than that of most individual ensemble members. The SPB exists in the FGOALS-g ensemble system, as shown by anomaly correlation and equal likelihood. Nevertheless, the role of the ensemble mean in reducing the SPB of ENSO prediction is significant. The rate of decrease of the ensemble mean is smaller than the largest deviations by 0.04-0.14. At the same time, the ensemble system "equal likelihood" declines during spring. An ensemble mean helps give a correct prediction direction, departing from largely-deviated ensemble members.

Learning and Progressing Through Scientific Practices—Commemorating the 90th Anniversary of the Haiyuan Earthquake and Working to Improve the Ability of Earthquake Prediction and Seismic Hazard Reduction

The great Haiyuan earthquake occurred at 20:06:09 on December 16,1920 in the south of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.The magnitude of this earthquake is 8.5,listed as one of the three greatest earthquakes to ever occur in Chinese continent.This devastating earthquake killed about 230,000 people according to previous reports.Recent studies show that total casualties may have reached 270,000.The study of this earthquake using modern scientific and technological methods is the first in the history of earthquake research in China.Significant breakthroughs took place in the middle of last century.The earthquake surface rupture,with 200km in length and prominent left-lateral strike-slip displacement,was discovered.The first monograph on the Haiyuan earthquake was published.In the 1980s,innovative large-scale geological mapping technology for active faults was developed during studies on the Haiyuan earthquake surface ruptures,with the publication of the first large-scale map of the Haiyuan active fault.Quantitative studies were carried out on the fine structure and geometry of the fault zone,Holocene slip rate,co-seismic displacement,paleoearthquake and recurrence intervals and future earthquake risk assessment.The innovative studies also included rupture propagation along the strike-slip fault,evolution of pull-apart basins,determination of total displacement of the strike-slip fault,transition equilibrium between strike-slip displacement along its major strand and crustal shortening at the end of the strike-slip fault,and the mechanism of deformation on Liupan Mountain.On the occasion of the 90th anniversary of the Haiyuan earthquake,careful retrospect of scientific progress achieved during the recent 20 years would be helpful in providing further direction in the study of active faults and earthquake hazard reduction.While taking this occasion to remember those lost by the Haiyuan earthquake,we aim to make greater contributions to earthquake prediction and seismic hazard reduction.

The dawn of successful prediction of major earthquakes

Since 1949, Chinese scientists have successfully predicted occurrence of many major earthquakes, such as the Haicheng MT. 3 event in 1975 and the Asian Game Village shock of 1990. In recent 20 years, however, some seis-mologists abroad have taken a disappointed and pessimistic view to earthquake prediction because of several failures. They suggest that the efforts should turn toward other fields, such as identification of building＇ s earthquake-proof capability, enhancement of house strength, and development of precise observational systems which will facilitate fast loca- ting of future major temblors and emergent relief on site. Such a pessimistic feeling has also influenced some Chinese researchers of the seismological community who attempted to give up efforts for earthquake prediction. Meanwhile other scientific workers are insisting in experiments and practices in this field and achieved some inspiring results. In this paper, we present several representative cases to illustrate that earthquakes are predictable under some conditions.

Establishing a non-hydrostatic global atmospheric modeling system at3-km horizontal resolution with aerosol feedbacks on the Sunway supercomputer of China

During the era of global warming and highly urbanized development,extreme and high impact weather as well as air pollution incidents influence everyday life and might even cause the incalculable loss of life and property.Despite the vast development of atmospheric models,there still exist substantial numerical forecast biases objectively.To accurately predict extreme weather,severe air pollution,and abrupt climate change,numerical atmospheric model requires not only to simulate meteorology and atmospheric compositions simultaneously involving many sophisticated physical and chemical processes but also at high spatiotemporal resolution.Global integrated atmospheric simulation at spatial resolutions of a few kilometers remains challenging due to its intensive computational and input/output(I/O)requirement.Through multi-dimension-parallelism structuring,aggressive and finer-grained optimizing,manual vectorizing,and parallelized I/O fragmenting,an integrated Atmospheric Model Across Scales(iAMAS)was established on the new Sunway supercomputer platform to significantly increase the computational efficiency and reduce the I/O cost.The global 3-km atmospheric simulation for meteorology with online integrated aerosol feedbacks with iAMAS was scaled to 39,000,000 processor cores and achieved the speed of 0.82 simulation day per hour(SDPH)with routine I/O,which enabled us to perform 5-day global weather forecast at 3-km horizontal resolution with online natural aerosol impacts.The results demonstrate the promising future that the increasing of spatial resolution to a few kilometers with online integrated aerosol feedbacks may significantly improve the global weather forecast.