This paper studies that the bullwhip effect of order releases and the amplifications of safety stock arise within the supply chain even when the demand model is ARIMA(0, 1, 1) and the forecast method used is a simple ...This paper studies that the bullwhip effect of order releases and the amplifications of safety stock arise within the supply chain even when the demand model is ARIMA(0, 1, 1) and the forecast method used is a simple exponentially weighted moving average. It also examines a vendor managed inventory (VMI) program to determine how it can help alleviate such negative effects, and gives the theoretical proofs and numerical illustrations. The results show that the effects with VMI are better than the effect without VMI in demand forecasting and safety stock levels, etc.展开更多
[ Objective] The aim of this study was to provide a theoretical basis for breeding selection, matching parents and the identification of traits during early period. [ Method ] With Shanli （ Pyrus ussuriensis Maxim） ...[ Objective] The aim of this study was to provide a theoretical basis for breeding selection, matching parents and the identification of traits during early period. [ Method ] With Shanli （ Pyrus ussuriensis Maxim） , S2 × Shanli （vigorous）, S2 x ShanU （dwarfing）, S2, super-dwarfing germplasm as the matedais, the dwarfing traits of each germplasm were identified by indices including leaf stomata density, branch-cortex ratio, leaf thickness, palisade tissue thickness, paisade-spongy ratio and vessel density. [Result] Among five kinds of pear germplasms, Shanli with strong growth potential had the smallest branch-cortex ratio, leaf thickness, palisade tissue thickness and palisade-spengy ratio, but the largest stomata density and vessel density. On the contrary, super-dwarfing germplasm with weak growth potential had the largest branch-cortex ratio, leaf thickness, palisade tissue thickness and palisade-spongy ratio, but the smallest stomata density and vessel density. There was a difference in stomata density, branch-cortex ratio, leaf thickness, palisade tissue thickness, palisade-spongy ratio and vessel density for every germplasm. [ Conclusion] Stomata density, branch-cortex ratio, leaf thickness, palisade tissue thickness, palisade-spongy ratio and vessel density can be used as indices of identification for pear growth potential in early period.展开更多
Ordovician limestone water is coal mines. In this paper, we analyze the the main source of water inrush in North China characteristic of three kinds of nonlinear seismic attributes, such as the largest lyapunov expone...Ordovician limestone water is coal mines. In this paper, we analyze the the main source of water inrush in North China characteristic of three kinds of nonlinear seismic attributes, such as the largest lyapunov exponent,fractal dimension and entropy and introduce their calculation methods. Taking the 81st and 82nd coal districts in the Xutuan coal mine as examples, we extract the three seismic attributes based on the 3D prestack migration seismic data of this area, which can display the Ordovician limestone fracture distribution in the mine. We comprehensively analyzed the three nonlinear seismic attributes and compared the results with transient electromagnetic exploration results and determined the possible Ordovician limestone aquosity distribution. This demonstrated that the nonlinear seismic attributes technology is an effective approach to predict the aquosity of Ordovician limestone.展开更多
[Objective] The paper is to analyze physical quantities and radar parameter of hail shooting and heavy convective rainfall weather. [Method] Using radar data of Jinan station during 2002 and 2008, combined with soundi...[Objective] The paper is to analyze physical quantities and radar parameter of hail shooting and heavy convective rainfall weather. [Method] Using radar data of Jinan station during 2002 and 2008, combined with sounding data, the physical quantities and radar parameter of hail shooting and heavy convective rainfall weather are compared and analyzed. [Result] The smaller Sl is conducive to the generation of hail weather. When K〉 35 ~C, the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly increased; when K〈20 ^（3, the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly decreased. When CAPE value is greater than 1 500 J/KG, the probability for occurrence of hail weather is significantly decreased, while the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly in- creased. The possibility for occurrence of hail monomer is small when the wind shear is less than 5 m/s; and it is large while wind shear is greater than 20 m/s. The radar forecasting indexes of hail monomer is as follows： VIL value reaches 35 kg/m2 （May）, 43 kg/m2 （June and July）, the monomer height is greater than 9 km, the maximum reflectivity factor is larger than 60 dBz, strong center height reaches 3.3 km （May）, 4.3 km （June） and 5.5 km （July）; VlL value of heavy rainfall monomer generally is below 25 kg/m2. [Conclusion] The paper provides basis form prediction of hail and heavy rainfall.展开更多
Objective: To study the prognostic value of the pathological margin and molecular margin marked by eIF4E and P53 protein in laryngeal carcinoma. Methods: The prognostic value of pathological and molecular margin was s...Objective: To study the prognostic value of the pathological margin and molecular margin marked by eIF4E and P53 protein in laryngeal carcinoma. Methods: The prognostic value of pathological and molecular margin was studied in 253 cases and 67 cases respectively, the latter were pathological negative margin chosen from the former. Immunohistochemisty was used to detect the expression of eIF4E and p53 proteins. Results: The rate of pathological, p53 and eIF4E positive margins was 20.2%, 19.4% and 32.8% respectively. The recurrent rate of those with positive margins was higher than that of negative margins, which including pathological margin (70.6% vs 35.1%, P =0.0000), p53 margin (69.2% vs 33.3%, P =0.018) and eIF4E margin (63.6% vs 28.9%, P =0.018); The survival rate of those with negative margins was higher than those with positive margins, including pathological margin (the 5-year cumulative survival rate was 37.52% and 64.37% respectively, P =0.0023), p53 margin (the 5-year cumulative survival rate was 24.62% and 75.69% respectively, P =0.0012) and eIF4E margin (the 5-year cumulative survival rate was 43.31% and 77.52% respectively, P =0.0006). Conclusion: The prognosis of those with both pathological and molecular positive margins was worse than that of the negative margins; Both the eIF4E and p53 were useful markers to pick out the poor prognostic patients from those with pathological negative margin, and the former seemed to be more potential.展开更多
文摘This paper studies that the bullwhip effect of order releases and the amplifications of safety stock arise within the supply chain even when the demand model is ARIMA(0, 1, 1) and the forecast method used is a simple exponentially weighted moving average. It also examines a vendor managed inventory (VMI) program to determine how it can help alleviate such negative effects, and gives the theoretical proofs and numerical illustrations. The results show that the effects with VMI are better than the effect without VMI in demand forecasting and safety stock levels, etc.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation(3056009130960231)~~
文摘[ Objective] The aim of this study was to provide a theoretical basis for breeding selection, matching parents and the identification of traits during early period. [ Method ] With Shanli （ Pyrus ussuriensis Maxim） , S2 × Shanli （vigorous）, S2 x ShanU （dwarfing）, S2, super-dwarfing germplasm as the matedais, the dwarfing traits of each germplasm were identified by indices including leaf stomata density, branch-cortex ratio, leaf thickness, palisade tissue thickness, paisade-spongy ratio and vessel density. [Result] Among five kinds of pear germplasms, Shanli with strong growth potential had the smallest branch-cortex ratio, leaf thickness, palisade tissue thickness and palisade-spengy ratio, but the largest stomata density and vessel density. On the contrary, super-dwarfing germplasm with weak growth potential had the largest branch-cortex ratio, leaf thickness, palisade tissue thickness and palisade-spongy ratio, but the smallest stomata density and vessel density. There was a difference in stomata density, branch-cortex ratio, leaf thickness, palisade tissue thickness, palisade-spongy ratio and vessel density for every germplasm. [ Conclusion] Stomata density, branch-cortex ratio, leaf thickness, palisade tissue thickness, palisade-spongy ratio and vessel density can be used as indices of identification for pear growth potential in early period.
文摘Ordovician limestone water is coal mines. In this paper, we analyze the the main source of water inrush in North China characteristic of three kinds of nonlinear seismic attributes, such as the largest lyapunov exponent,fractal dimension and entropy and introduce their calculation methods. Taking the 81st and 82nd coal districts in the Xutuan coal mine as examples, we extract the three seismic attributes based on the 3D prestack migration seismic data of this area, which can display the Ordovician limestone fracture distribution in the mine. We comprehensively analyzed the three nonlinear seismic attributes and compared the results with transient electromagnetic exploration results and determined the possible Ordovician limestone aquosity distribution. This demonstrated that the nonlinear seismic attributes technology is an effective approach to predict the aquosity of Ordovician limestone.
基金Supported by Science and Technology Development Project of Shandong Science and Technology Hall(2010GSF10805)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41140036)~~
文摘[Objective] The paper is to analyze physical quantities and radar parameter of hail shooting and heavy convective rainfall weather. [Method] Using radar data of Jinan station during 2002 and 2008, combined with sounding data, the physical quantities and radar parameter of hail shooting and heavy convective rainfall weather are compared and analyzed. [Result] The smaller Sl is conducive to the generation of hail weather. When K〉 35 ~C, the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly increased; when K〈20 ^（3, the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly decreased. When CAPE value is greater than 1 500 J/KG, the probability for occurrence of hail weather is significantly decreased, while the probability for occurrence of heavy rainfall weather is significantly in- creased. The possibility for occurrence of hail monomer is small when the wind shear is less than 5 m/s; and it is large while wind shear is greater than 20 m/s. The radar forecasting indexes of hail monomer is as follows： VIL value reaches 35 kg/m2 （May）, 43 kg/m2 （June and July）, the monomer height is greater than 9 km, the maximum reflectivity factor is larger than 60 dBz, strong center height reaches 3.3 km （May）, 4.3 km （June） and 5.5 km （July）; VlL value of heavy rainfall monomer generally is below 25 kg/m2. [Conclusion] The paper provides basis form prediction of hail and heavy rainfall.
文摘Objective: To study the prognostic value of the pathological margin and molecular margin marked by eIF4E and P53 protein in laryngeal carcinoma. Methods: The prognostic value of pathological and molecular margin was studied in 253 cases and 67 cases respectively, the latter were pathological negative margin chosen from the former. Immunohistochemisty was used to detect the expression of eIF4E and p53 proteins. Results: The rate of pathological, p53 and eIF4E positive margins was 20.2%, 19.4% and 32.8% respectively. The recurrent rate of those with positive margins was higher than that of negative margins, which including pathological margin (70.6% vs 35.1%, P =0.0000), p53 margin (69.2% vs 33.3%, P =0.018) and eIF4E margin (63.6% vs 28.9%, P =0.018); The survival rate of those with negative margins was higher than those with positive margins, including pathological margin (the 5-year cumulative survival rate was 37.52% and 64.37% respectively, P =0.0023), p53 margin (the 5-year cumulative survival rate was 24.62% and 75.69% respectively, P =0.0012) and eIF4E margin (the 5-year cumulative survival rate was 43.31% and 77.52% respectively, P =0.0006). Conclusion: The prognosis of those with both pathological and molecular positive margins was worse than that of the negative margins; Both the eIF4E and p53 were useful markers to pick out the poor prognostic patients from those with pathological negative margin, and the former seemed to be more potential.
