溢价预期对农户绿色防控技术采纳行为的非线性影响:基于质量认证的视角

绿色防控技术推广是应对气候变化和实现农业绿色转型的重要举措。现有研究往往单独分析溢价预期和质量认证对农户绿色防控技术采纳行为的影响,忽视了农户在溢价预期的激励下主动参与质量认证的可能性和溢价预期的作用程度。本文构建“溢价预期—质量认证—绿色防控技术采纳行为”的分析框架,利用湖北省1039户水稻种植户调研数据,探究溢价预期对农户绿色防控技术采纳行为的影响以及质量认证在其中的内在机制。结果显示:第一,溢价预期总体上显著促进了农户的绿色防控技术采纳行为,但溢价预期的促进效应呈现边际效应递减的非线性特征。而且,溢价预期对种植规模小、满足口粮型农户的绿色防控技术采纳行为的促进作用更强。第二,溢价预期与农户参与质量认证存在“倒U”型关系,即溢价预期对质量认证的影响具有“预期动力不足—溢价预期释放—溢价预期牵制”的非线性变化轨迹。第三,机制分析表明,溢价预期高的农户可以通过参与质量认证间接促进其采纳绿色防控技术。因此,有必要完善绿色农产品市场体系以强化农户对优质优价的信心,优化质量认证发展环境和配套措施吸纳农户广泛参与质量认证,实现对农户采纳绿色防控技术的长效激励。

MCP机制下的发电商报价策略研究

建立了一个考虑发电商的单位成本、最高报价、低于和等于市场出清价格(MCP)竞价成功的两种可能性概率的不完全信息模型.针对该模型,提出用预期市场出清电价和贝叶斯博弈结合的方法,求出以发电商收益最大为目标的报价策略,为电力市场内发电商的报价提供了一种新的分析途径.

Multivariate time delay analysis based local KPCA fault prognosis approach for nonlinear processes

Currently, some fault prognosis technology occasionally has relatively unsatisfied performance especially for in- cipient faults in nonlinear processes duo to their large time delay and complex internal connection. To overcome this deficiency, multivariate time delay analysis is incorporated into the high sensitive local kernel principal component analysis. In this approach, mutual information estimation and Bayesian information criterion （BIC） are separately used to acquire the correlation degree and time delay of the process variables. Moreover, in order to achieve prediction, time series prediction by back propagation （BP） network is applied whose input is multivar- iate correlated time series other than the original time series. Then the multivariate time delayed series and future values obtained by time series prediction are combined to construct the input of local kernel principal component analysis （LKPCA） model for incipient fault prognosis. The new method has been exemplified in a sim- ple nonlinear process and the complicated Tennessee Eastman （TE） benchmark process. The results indicate that the new method has suoerioritv in the fault prognosis sensitivity over other traditional fault prognosis methods.

Evaluation of ERA-Interim Monthly Temperature Data over the Tibetan Plateau

In this study, surface air temperature from 75 meteorological stations above 3000 m on the Tibetan Plateau are applied for evaluation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) third-generation reanalysis product ERA-Interim in the period of 1979-2010. High correlations ranging from 0.973 to 0.999 indicate that ERA-Interim could capture the annual cycle very well. However, an average root-meansquare error(rmse) of 3.7°C for all stations reveals that ERA-Interim could not be applied directly for the individual sites. The biases can be mainly attributed to the altitude differences between ERA-Interim grid points and stations. An elevation correction method based on monthly lapse rates is limited to reduce the bias for all stations. Generally, ERA-Interim captured the Plateau-Wide annual and seasonal climatologies very well. The spatial variance is highly related to the topographic features of the TP. The temperature increases significantly(10°C- 15°C) from the western to the eastern Tibetan Plateau for all seasons, in particular during winter and summer. A significant warming trend(0.49°C/decade) is found over the entire Tibetan Plateau using station time series from 1979-2010. ERA-Interim captures the annual warming trend with an increase rate of 0.33°C /decade very well. The observation data and ERA-Interim data both showed the largest warming trends in winter with values of 0.67°C/decade and 0.41°C/decade, respectively. We conclude that in general ERA-Interim captures the temperature trends very well and ERA-Interim is reliable for climate change investigation over the Tibetan Plateau under the premise of cautious interpretation.

Trinomial tree model of the real options approach used in mining investment price forecast and analysis

In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.

The Prediction Analysis of Customer Lifetime Value in Business to Business Enterprise

The measurement of customer assets value has become a significant task in the field of marketing. Although a series of achievements have been formed, the deeper research is still needed in the following aspects： how to build parameter estimation model of various variables based on the interaction among customer assets elements and how to get the scientific and available measured data. In order to solve these problems, this paper, based on the characteristics of customer relationship in Business to Business （B to B） enterprise and the analysis of the variable factors in the interactive models will systematically and practically use the seemingly unrelated regression method to construct three main parameters estimation models in the customer assets measurement model, and prove the feasibility of the model through a case study. Research results show that measurement model system constructed by this method solves the problem of interaction and germination among parameters influencing factors. At the same time, factors concentration simplifies data sources to ensure the reliability and objectivity of the data, and thus improve the accuracy and feasibility of the estimation of customer assets value.

电力工程建设同“三价”的差异探讨及其控制对策

在电力建设中 ,由于同一项目的投资领域发生的时段不同而产生预期价、交易价和结算价 3个不同形态。“三价”是在不同时期编制的 ,随着时间的推移 ,客观情况的变化 ,使“三价”出现变化 ,应采取以下措施 ,使“三价”在可控制范围内 :充分掌握信息 ,力求价格走势判断准确 ;尽可能采用施工设计量单招标 ,力求工程清单的准确性 ;掌握合理的交易价 ,力求以技术经济的综合水平控制投资 ;

OPTIMAL DECISIONS WHEN BALANCING EXPECTED PROFIT AND CONDITIONAL VALUE-AT-RISK IN NEWSVENDOR MODELS

This paper investigates a risk-averse inventory model by balancing the expected profit and conditional value-at-risk （CVaR） in a newsvendor model setting. We find out that： i） The optimal order quantity is increasing in the shortage cost for both the CVaR only criterion and the tradeoff objective, ii） For the case of zero shortage cost, the optimal order quantity to the CVaR criterion or tradeoff objective is increasing in the selling price, respectively. However, it may not be monotonic in the selling price when incorporating a substantial shortage cost. Moreover, it may be larger or less than the risk-neutral solution, iii） Under the tradeoff objective function, although the optimal order quantity for the model without shortage cost is increasing in the weight put on the expected profit, this property may not be true in general for the model with a substantial shortage cost. Some numerical examples are conducted to verify our results and observations.