《放射性肿瘤病因判断标准》判断值变化对铀矿工肺癌预期数的影响

目的探讨《放射性肿瘤病因判定标准》修订后,铀矿工肺癌预期数的变化。方法根据GBZ 97-2009及GBZ 97-2002公式倒推95%可信上限病因概率(PC)≥50%和PC≥50%时,铀矿工氡及其子体累积受照剂量水平。结果新标准诊断的矿工肺癌预期数约为旧标准的2倍。结论 GBZ 97-2009有利于患肺癌的铀矿工维权,但是否适合我国国情,仍需推敲。

不同时期晒田对水稻成穗率及产量的影响试验研究

本文采用随机区组排列方法,探讨研究了水源灌溉保证地区种植杂交水稻不同时期控水晒田对产量的影响。结果表明:有效分蘖临界叶龄期晒田处理产量最高,为813.2 kg/667m^2,比对照增产22.73%;其次是有效分蘖临界叶龄期前1叶处理,为782.6kg/667m^2,比对照增产18.11%;第三是茎蘖苗达预期穗数90%处理,为721.3 kg/667m^2,比对照增产8.86%;第四是茎蘖苗达预期穗数80%处理,为687.3 kg/667m^2,比对照增产3.73%;最低是对照不晒田,一直灌水处理,为662.6 kg/667m^2。由此可见,在有效分蘖临界叶龄期或稍前晒田,能提高成穗率,增加单产,可在大面积生产上推广应用。

实验室单台设备维修更换模型

运用运筹学的原理与方法,建立了实验室单台设备维修更换的数学模型,它能容易地确定每台机器预防性更换的最优间隔期,从而使设备在单位时间内的预期更换代价最低。

Analysis of Optimal Portfolio with Different Utility Function

The question of optimal portfolio is that finds the trading strategy satisfying the maximal expected utility function subject to some constraints. There is the optimal trading strategy under the risk neutral probability measure （martingale measure） if and only if there is no-arbitrage opportunity in the market. This paper argues the optimal wealth and the optimal value of expected utility with different utility function.

A Potential High-Score Scheme for the Prediction of Atlantic Storm Activity

A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number (ATSN) was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January February and April May.The 2.5°×2.5° resolution reanalysis data from both the US National Center for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) were applied.The model was cross-validated using data from 1979 2002.The ATSN predictions from the two reanalysis models were correlated with the observations with the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) of 0.79 (NCEP/NCAR) and 0.78 (ECMWF) and the multi-year mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) of 1.85 and 1.76,respectively.When the predictions of the two models were averaged,the ACC increased to 0.90 and the MAE decreased to 1.18,an exceptionally high score.Therefore,this new empirical approach has the potential to improve the operational prediction of the annual tropical Atlantic storm frequency.

Comparison of wind data from ERA-Interim and buoys in the Yellow and East China Seas

We compared data of sea surface wind from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis(ERA-Interim) with that collected from eight buoys deployed in the Yellow and East China seas.The buoy data covered a period from 2010 to 2011,during which the longest time series without missing data extended for 329 days.Results show that the ERA-Interim wind data agree well with the buoy data.The regression coefficients between the ERA-Interim and observed wind speed and direction are greater than 0.7 and 0.79,respectively.However,the ERA-Interim wind data overestimate wind speed at most of the buoy stations,for which the largest bias is 1.8 m/s.Moreover,it is found from scatter plots of wind direction that about 13%of the ERA-Interim wind data can be classified as bad for wind speeds below6 m/s.Overall,the ERA-Interim data forecast both the wind speed and direction well,although they are not very representative of our observations,especially those where the wind speed is below 6 m/s.

Hybrid grey model to forecast monitoring series with seasonality

The grey forecasting model has been successfully applied to many fields. However, the precision of GM(1,1) model is not high. In order to remove the seasonal fluctuations in monitoring series before building GM(1,1) model, the forecasting series of GM(1,1) was built, and an inverse process was used to resume the seasonal fluctuations. Two deseasonalization methods were presented , i.e., seasonal index-based deseasonalization and standard normal distribution-based deseasonalization. They were combined with the GM(1,1) model to form hybrid grey models. A simple but practical method to further improve the forecasting results was also suggested. For comparison, a conventional periodic function model was investigated. The concept and algorithms were tested with four years monthly monitoring data. The results show that on the whole the seasonal index-GM(1,1) model outperform the conventional periodic function model and the conventional periodic function model outperform the SND-GM(1,1) model. The mean Absolute error and mean square error of seasonal index-GM(1,1) are 30.69% and 54.53% smaller than that of conventional periodic function model, respectively. The high accuracy, straightforward and easy implementation natures of the proposed hybrid seasonal index-grey model make it a powerful analysis technique for seasonal monitoring series.

ANALYSES OF ERRORS IN MEDIUM-TERM NUMERICAL FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 1998

By statistic and dynamic analyses, we have come to the following conclusions: (1) The ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast can forecast medium-term activity of subtropical high, and the accuracy rate of forecast cannot have large improvement by translational corrections. (2) The important cause for the ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast to have errors in 1998 is that the astronomical tide is not included in the model. (3) Two indexes are found from which it can be judged that ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast will have errors if the astronomical tide is ignored in the model : ① When the 54.7?line under the moon of the nodical month astronomical singularities coincides with the trough-line of the subtropical jet flow from 50癊 to 150癊 on the 500 hPa level at 2000 L.T. of the same day, and is approximately vertical (α>60? with the isotherm, then the day 0 2 days after the appearance of the nodical month astronomical singularities is defined as the initial day. Then in three successive days after the initial day, ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast of the northern latitude of the 588 line at 120 癊 will have continuous errors as large as two latitudes (7/9). Otherwise, it won’t have continuous errors (13/13). ② Otherwise, if the 54.7 ?line is in the range of a low pressure between two high pressures, then there is a dispersive error on the day of the nodical month astronomical singularities (5/7). There is not any error (6/6) otherwise.

Early graft dysfunction following adult-to-adult livingrelated liver transplantation:Predictive factors and outcomes

AIM:To describe a condition that we define as early graft dysfunction(EGD)which can be identified preoperatively. METHODS:Small-for-size graft dysfunction following living-related liver transplantation(LRLT)is characterized by EGD when the graft-to-recipient body weight ratio(GRBWR)is below 0.8%.However, patients transplanted with GRBWR above 0.8%can develop dysfunction of the graft.In 73 recipients of LRLT(GRBWR>0.8%),we identified 10 patients who developed EGD.The main measures of outcomes analyzed were overall mortality,number of re-transplants and length of stay in days(LOS).Furthermore we analyzed other clinical pre-transplant variables,intraoperative parameters and post transplant data.RESULTS:A trend in favor of the non-EGD group(3-mo actuarial survival 98%vs 88%,P=0.09;3-mo graft mortality 4.7%vs 20%,P=0.07)was observed as well as shorter LOS(13 d vs 41.5 d;P=0.001)and smaller requirement of peri-operative Units of Plasma (4 vs 14;P=0.036).Univariate analysis of pre- transplant variables identified platelet count,serum bilirubin,INR and Meld-Na score as predictors of EGD. In the multivariate analysis transplant Meld-Na score (P=0.025,OR:1.175)and pretransplant platelet count(P=0.043,OR:0.956)were independently associated with EGD. CONCLUSION:EGD can be identified preoperatively and is associated with increased morbidity after LRLT. A prompt recognition of EGD can trigger a timely treatment.

Assessment of wind products obtained from multiple microwave scatterometers over the China Seas

Sea surface winds （SSWs） are vital to many meteorological and oceanographic applications, especially for regional study of short-range forecasting and Numerical Weather Prediction （NWP） assimilation. Spaceborne seatterometers can provide global ocean surface vector wind products at high spatial resolution. However, given the limited spatial coverage and revisit time for an individual sensor, it is valuable to study improvements of multiple microwave scatterometer observations, including the advanced scatterometer onboard parallel satellites MetOp-A （ASCAT-A） and MetOp-B （ASCAT-B） and microwave scatterometers aboard Oceansat-2 （OSCAT） and HY-2A （HY2-SCAT）. These four scatterometer-derived wind products over the China Seas （0°-40°N, 105°-135°E） were evaluated in terms of spatial coverage, revisit time, bias of wind speed and direction, after comparison with ERA-Interim forecast winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） and spectral analysis of wind components along the satellite track. The results show that spatial coverage of wind data observed by combination of the four sensors over the China Seas is about 92.8% for a 12-h interval at 12：00 and 90.7% at 24：00, respectively. The analysis of revisit time shows that two periods, from 5：30-8：30 UTC and 17：00-21：00 UTC each day, had no observations in the study area. Wind data observed by the four sensors along satellite orbits in one month were compared with ERA-Interim data, indicating that bias of both wind speed and direction varies with wind speed, especially for speeds less than 7 m/s. The bias depends on characteristics of each satellite sensor and its retrieval algorithm for wind vector data. All these results will be important as guidance in choosing the most suitable wind product for applications and for constructing blended SSW products.

Vehicle actuation based short-term traffic flow prediction model for signalized intersections

Traffic flow prediction is an important component for real-time traffic-adaptive signal control in urban arterial networks.By exploring available detector and signal controller information from neighboring intersections,a dynamic data-driven flow prediction model was developed.The model consists of two prediction components based on the signal states(red or green) for each movement at an upstream intersection.The characteristics of each signal state were carefully examined and the corresponding travel time from the upstream intersection to the approach in question at the downstream intersection was predicted.With an online turning proportion estimation method,along with the predicted travel times,the anticipated vehicle arrivals can be forecasted at the downstream intersection.The model performance was tested at a set of two signalized intersections located in the city of Gainesville,Florida,USA,using the CORSIM microscopic simulation package.Analysis results show that the model agrees well with empirical arrival data measured at 10 s intervals within an acceptable range of 10%-20%,and show a normal distribution.It is reasonably believed that the model has potential applicability for use in truly proactive real-time traffic adaptive signal control systems.

Application of Ambient Stress Parameters to Short-Term Prediction of the 2004, M_S5.0 Shuangbai, Yunnan Earthquake

Based on the data recorded by the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and using new methods, the short-term variations of the ambient stress field of Yunnan and its adjacent areas are monitored in real time. With the in-depth analyses of the spatial-temporal evolution of the ambient stress field prior to the 2004, Shuangbai M_S5.0 earthquake, concrete procedures for predicting the three elements of the earthquake are presented.

Using Satellite Data to Analyze the Initiation and Evolution of Deep Convective Clouds

In this study, two deep convective cloud cases were analyzed in detail to study their initiation and evolution. In both cases, all deep convective clouds were positioned at the rear of the cold front cloud bands and propagated backward. Satellite data showed that prior to initiation of the deep convective clouds, thermodynamic and moist conditions were favorable for their formation. In the morning, a deep convective cloud at the rear of cold front cloud band propagated backward, the outflow boundary of which created favorable conditions for initiation. An additional deep convective cloud cluster moved in from the west and interacted with the outflow boundary to develop a mesoscale convective system(MCS) with large, ellipse-shaped deep convective clouds that brought strong rainfall. The initiation and evolution of these clouds are shown clearly in satellite data and provide significant information for nowcasting and short-term forecasting.

Short-Term Forecasting of Urban Water Consumption Based on the Largest Lyapunov Exponent

An approach for short-term forecasting of municipal water consumption was presented based on the largest Lyapunov exponent of chaos theory. The chaotic characteristics of time series of urban water consumption were examined by means of the largest Lyapunov exponent and correlation dimension. By using the largest Lyapunov exponent a short-term forecasting model for urban water consumption was developed, which was compared with the artificial neural network (ANN) approach in a case study. The result indicates that the model based on the largest Lyapunov exponent has higher prediction precision and forecasting stability than the ANN method, and its forecasting mean relative error is 9.6% within its maximum predictable time scale while it is 60.6% beyond the scale.

Evaluation of ERA-Interim Monthly Temperature Data over the Tibetan Plateau

In this study, surface air temperature from 75 meteorological stations above 3000 m on the Tibetan Plateau are applied for evaluation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) third-generation reanalysis product ERA-Interim in the period of 1979-2010. High correlations ranging from 0.973 to 0.999 indicate that ERA-Interim could capture the annual cycle very well. However, an average root-meansquare error(rmse) of 3.7°C for all stations reveals that ERA-Interim could not be applied directly for the individual sites. The biases can be mainly attributed to the altitude differences between ERA-Interim grid points and stations. An elevation correction method based on monthly lapse rates is limited to reduce the bias for all stations. Generally, ERA-Interim captured the Plateau-Wide annual and seasonal climatologies very well. The spatial variance is highly related to the topographic features of the TP. The temperature increases significantly(10°C- 15°C) from the western to the eastern Tibetan Plateau for all seasons, in particular during winter and summer. A significant warming trend(0.49°C/decade) is found over the entire Tibetan Plateau using station time series from 1979-2010. ERA-Interim captures the annual warming trend with an increase rate of 0.33°C /decade very well. The observation data and ERA-Interim data both showed the largest warming trends in winter with values of 0.67°C/decade and 0.41°C/decade, respectively. We conclude that in general ERA-Interim captures the temperature trends very well and ERA-Interim is reliable for climate change investigation over the Tibetan Plateau under the premise of cautious interpretation.

Quantifying local predictability of the Lorenz system using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent

The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent（NLLE） can be used as a quantification of the local predictability limit of chaotic systems. In this study, the phase-spatial structure of the local predictability limit over the Lorenz-63 system is investigated. It is found that the inner and outer rims of each regime of the attractor have a high probability of a longer than average local predictability limit, while the center part is the opposite. However, the distribution of the local predictability limit is nonuniformly organized, with adjacent points sometimes showing quite distinct error growth.The source of local predictability is linked to the local dynamics, which is related to the region in the phase space and the duration on the current regime.

Short Group Signatures with Efficient Concurrent Join

Group signature schemes are fundamental cryptographic tools. A group signature scheme allows members of a group to anonymously sign misuse, the anonymity messages. To counter can be revoked by the group manager. The group joining operation is a critical component of group signature scheme, the framing attack can be prevented by group joining processes. This paper presents an efficient group signature scheme with a simple joining protocol that is based on a ＂single message and signature response＂ interaction between the prospective user and the group manager. The security of our group signature is based on the Discrete Logarithm assumption and Decisional Linear Diffie- Hellman assumption. The formal security proof of our scheme is given in the random oracle model. Our scheme is also a very efficient short group signature scheme with efficient concurrent join.

一体化创伤救治体系对危重创伤患者病死率的影响

目的定量评估一体化创伤救治体系对危重创伤患者救治质量的影响。方法从笔者单位创伤中心创伤数据库中提取并统计分析2010年1月-2012年12月笔者单位收治的符合入选标准的危重创伤患者以下数据：性别、年龄；入院后基本情况，包括收缩压、舒张压、腋温、心率、损伤严重程度评分（ISS）、急性生理与慢性健康评估Ⅱ（APACHEII）评分、格拉斯哥昏迷评分、首日尿量；入院后首次生理生化检测指标值，包括pH值、剩余碱、PaCO，、PaO2、标准碳酸氢根离子、白细胞计数、中性粒细胞、Hb、血小板计数、白蛋白、尿素氮、乳酸、血糖、血钠；手术情况、ICU住院时间、主要并发症（感染、ARDS、MODS／MOF）发生情况、死亡情况。采用单因素分析筛选出与患者死亡显著相关的暴露因素，纳人多因素Logistic回归建立风险校正病死率模型，计算3年间患者调整病死率的观察数／预期数（O／E）比值，并且采用泊松分布计算出O／E比值的95％置信区间（CI）。对数据行Studentt检验、Wilcox检验、r检验、Fisher确切概率法检验。结果共纳入3年间536例危重创伤患者，其中男438例（81．72％）、女98例（18．28％）。3年间患者性别、年龄、人院后基本情况比较，差异无统计学意义（x2=0．16，t值为0．05～104．50，W值为0．008～104．500，P值均大于0．05）。3年间患者入院后首次生理生化检查指标pH值、剩余碱、PaCO2、PaO2、Hb、血小板计数、血钠比较，差异均无统计学意义（t值为0．80—29．10，彤值为0．110、5．450，P值均大于0．05）；标准碳酸氢根离子、白细胞计数、中性粒细胞、白蛋白、尿素氮、乳酸、血糖比较，差异均有统计学意义（f值为1542．00～500000．00，形值为637．000～500000．000，P〈0．05或P〈0．01）。3年问患者的手术情况、ICU住院时间、主要并发症（感染、ARDS、MODS／MOF）发生情况比较，差异均无统计学意义（x2值为0．48～2．43，W=2．100，P值均大于0．05）。2010、2011、2012年患者病死率分别为11．9％（19／159）、11．2％（21／187）、7．4％（14／190），呈下降趋势，但差异无统计学意义（x2=2．43，P〉0．05）。3年间危重创伤患者死亡相关风险因素为患者年龄、ISS、APACHEⅡ评分、首13尿量、血小板计数、白蛋白和血钠。2010、2011、2012年患者调整病死率O／E比值（95％CI）分别为0．727（0．460～1．180）、0．718（0．460～1．230）、0．460（0．270～0．840），呈逐年下降趋势。结论一体化创伤救治体系有助于提高危重创伤患者救治质量。

基于Meta回归算法评估烧伤临床营养系统评价的异质性

目的基于Meta回归算法对烧伤临床营养系统评价研究的异质性进行量化评估。方法检索《PubMed数据库》、荷兰《医学文摘》光盘数据库、《科学引文索引数据库》、《Cochrane中心随机对照试验（RCT）注册数据库》、《中国生物医学文献数据库》、《中文生物医学期刊数据库》和《中国期刊全文数据库》1980年以后的文献资料，鉴定烧伤临床营养系统评价研究。纳入标准包括：研究设计为干预性系统评价或Meta分析；烧伤患者年龄大于或等于18岁；采用临床营养类干预，制剂包括特殊营养素、途径包括肠内或肠外营养；结局指标为病死率。采用两步法分析系统评价的异质性，（1）定性分析：统计系统评价发表年份以及纳入临床研究外部设计、患者类型、营养素摄人（制剂或途径）、热量摄人、结局的报告情况；（2）定量分析：对系统评价纳入有结局报告的临床试验，建立其研究外部设计、发表时间、营养素摄入（制剂或途径）、热量摄入对病死率的Meta回归方程，采用广义线性回归模型以病死率作为回归结局变量得到各临床试验的预期死亡数，计算实际数／预期数（O／E）比及其95％置信区间鉴定系统评价中临床试验的异质性。结果（1）检索获得6项系统评价研究，时间跨度为10年，其中3项针对成人患者的系统评价报告了营养素摄人（制剂或途径）、热量摄人和结局3项特征指标中的2项。共纳人11项有患者结局报告的临床试验，包括10项RCT、l项病例对照试验。（2）Meta回归分析显示，与另外7项研究不同，4项RCT（5个研究组）存在显著异质性，不是来自于一个总体。对3项全面报告了营养素摄入（制剂或途径）、热量摄入及结局的RCT进行Meta回归分析，结果显示其无异质性。结论烧伤临床营养系统评价质量不高，所纳人的RCT有显著的异质性；基于Meta回归技术的O／E统计量能有效识别RCT异质性并有助于鉴定异质性来源。

针灸研究的复杂性与挑战性(英文)

With the growing popularity of acupuncture in western society in recent decades,many acupuncture researches and clinical studies have been conducted.These studies have significantly enhanced our understanding of acupuncture;nevertheless,very few findings obtained from acupuncture research have been transferred to acupuncture clinical practice,which has significantly hampered the development of acupuncture treatment.In addition,some crucial information,such as correct dosage of acupuncture,remains unknown,which further limits the interpretation of clinical trials testing the efficacy of acupuncture treatment.Future acupuncture research should try to fill these gaps and explore new ways to increase the clinical effectiveness of acupuncture treatment.