The question of optimal portfolio is that finds the trading strategy satisfying the maximal expected utility function subject to some constraints. There is the optimal trading strategy under the risk neutral probabili...The question of optimal portfolio is that finds the trading strategy satisfying the maximal expected utility function subject to some constraints. There is the optimal trading strategy under the risk neutral probability measure (martingale measure) if and only if there is no-arbitrage opportunity in the market. This paper argues the optimal wealth and the optimal value of expected utility with different utility function.展开更多
A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number (ATSN) was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January February and April...A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number (ATSN) was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January February and April May.The 2.5°×2.5° resolution reanalysis data from both the US National Center for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) were applied.The model was cross-validated using data from 1979 2002.The ATSN predictions from the two reanalysis models were correlated with the observations with the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) of 0.79 (NCEP/NCAR) and 0.78 (ECMWF) and the multi-year mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) of 1.85 and 1.76,respectively.When the predictions of the two models were averaged,the ACC increased to 0.90 and the MAE decreased to 1.18,an exceptionally high score.Therefore,this new empirical approach has the potential to improve the operational prediction of the annual tropical Atlantic storm frequency.展开更多
We compared data of sea surface wind from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis(ERA-Interim) with that collected from eight buoys deployed in the Yellow and East China seas.The buoy...We compared data of sea surface wind from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis(ERA-Interim) with that collected from eight buoys deployed in the Yellow and East China seas.The buoy data covered a period from 2010 to 2011,during which the longest time series without missing data extended for 329 days.Results show that the ERA-Interim wind data agree well with the buoy data.The regression coefficients between the ERA-Interim and observed wind speed and direction are greater than 0.7 and 0.79,respectively.However,the ERA-Interim wind data overestimate wind speed at most of the buoy stations,for which the largest bias is 1.8 m/s.Moreover,it is found from scatter plots of wind direction that about 13%of the ERA-Interim wind data can be classified as bad for wind speeds below6 m/s.Overall,the ERA-Interim data forecast both the wind speed and direction well,although they are not very representative of our observations,especially those where the wind speed is below 6 m/s.展开更多
The grey forecasting model has been successfully applied to many fields. However, the precision of GM(1,1) model is not high. In order to remove the seasonal fluctuations in monitoring series before building GM(1,1) m...The grey forecasting model has been successfully applied to many fields. However, the precision of GM(1,1) model is not high. In order to remove the seasonal fluctuations in monitoring series before building GM(1,1) model, the forecasting series of GM(1,1) was built, and an inverse process was used to resume the seasonal fluctuations. Two deseasonalization methods were presented , i.e., seasonal index-based deseasonalization and standard normal distribution-based deseasonalization. They were combined with the GM(1,1) model to form hybrid grey models. A simple but practical method to further improve the forecasting results was also suggested. For comparison, a conventional periodic function model was investigated. The concept and algorithms were tested with four years monthly monitoring data. The results show that on the whole the seasonal index-GM(1,1) model outperform the conventional periodic function model and the conventional periodic function model outperform the SND-GM(1,1) model. The mean Absolute error and mean square error of seasonal index-GM(1,1) are 30.69% and 54.53% smaller than that of conventional periodic function model, respectively. The high accuracy, straightforward and easy implementation natures of the proposed hybrid seasonal index-grey model make it a powerful analysis technique for seasonal monitoring series.展开更多
By statistic and dynamic analyses, we have come to the following conclusions: (1) The ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast can forecast medium-term activity of subtropical high, and the accuracy rate of forecast canno...By statistic and dynamic analyses, we have come to the following conclusions: (1) The ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast can forecast medium-term activity of subtropical high, and the accuracy rate of forecast cannot have large improvement by translational corrections. (2) The important cause for the ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast to have errors in 1998 is that the astronomical tide is not included in the model. (3) Two indexes are found from which it can be judged that ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast will have errors if the astronomical tide is ignored in the model : ① When the 54.7?line under the moon of the nodical month astronomical singularities coincides with the trough-line of the subtropical jet flow from 50癊 to 150癊 on the 500 hPa level at 2000 L.T. of the same day, and is approximately vertical (α>60? with the isotherm, then the day 0 2 days after the appearance of the nodical month astronomical singularities is defined as the initial day. Then in three successive days after the initial day, ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast of the northern latitude of the 588 line at 120 癊 will have continuous errors as large as two latitudes (7/9). Otherwise, it won’t have continuous errors (13/13). ② Otherwise, if the 54.7 ?line is in the range of a low pressure between two high pressures, then there is a dispersive error on the day of the nodical month astronomical singularities (5/7). There is not any error (6/6) otherwise.展开更多
AIM:To describe a condition that we define as early graft dysfunction(EGD)which can be identified preoperatively. METHODS:Small-for-size graft dysfunction following living-related liver transplantation(LRLT)is charact...AIM:To describe a condition that we define as early graft dysfunction(EGD)which can be identified preoperatively. METHODS:Small-for-size graft dysfunction following living-related liver transplantation(LRLT)is characterized by EGD when the graft-to-recipient body weight ratio(GRBWR)is below 0.8%.However, patients transplanted with GRBWR above 0.8%can develop dysfunction of the graft.In 73 recipients of LRLT(GRBWR>0.8%),we identified 10 patients who developed EGD.The main measures of outcomes analyzed were overall mortality,number of re-transplants and length of stay in days(LOS).Furthermore we analyzed other clinical pre-transplant variables,intraoperative parameters and post transplant data.RESULTS:A trend in favor of the non-EGD group(3-mo actuarial survival 98%vs 88%,P=0.09;3-mo graft mortality 4.7%vs 20%,P=0.07)was observed as well as shorter LOS(13 d vs 41.5 d;P=0.001)and smaller requirement of peri-operative Units of Plasma (4 vs 14;P=0.036).Univariate analysis of pre- transplant variables identified platelet count,serum bilirubin,INR and Meld-Na score as predictors of EGD. In the multivariate analysis transplant Meld-Na score (P=0.025,OR:1.175)and pretransplant platelet count(P=0.043,OR:0.956)were independently associated with EGD. CONCLUSION:EGD can be identified preoperatively and is associated with increased morbidity after LRLT. A prompt recognition of EGD can trigger a timely treatment.展开更多
Sea surface winds (SSWs) are vital to many meteorological and oceanographic applications, especially for regional study of short-range forecasting and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) assimilation. Spaceborne se...Sea surface winds (SSWs) are vital to many meteorological and oceanographic applications, especially for regional study of short-range forecasting and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) assimilation. Spaceborne seatterometers can provide global ocean surface vector wind products at high spatial resolution. However, given the limited spatial coverage and revisit time for an individual sensor, it is valuable to study improvements of multiple microwave scatterometer observations, including the advanced scatterometer onboard parallel satellites MetOp-A (ASCAT-A) and MetOp-B (ASCAT-B) and microwave scatterometers aboard Oceansat-2 (OSCAT) and HY-2A (HY2-SCAT). These four scatterometer-derived wind products over the China Seas (0°-40°N, 105°-135°E) were evaluated in terms of spatial coverage, revisit time, bias of wind speed and direction, after comparison with ERA-Interim forecast winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and spectral analysis of wind components along the satellite track. The results show that spatial coverage of wind data observed by combination of the four sensors over the China Seas is about 92.8% for a 12-h interval at 12:00 and 90.7% at 24:00, respectively. The analysis of revisit time shows that two periods, from 5:30-8:30 UTC and 17:00-21:00 UTC each day, had no observations in the study area. Wind data observed by the four sensors along satellite orbits in one month were compared with ERA-Interim data, indicating that bias of both wind speed and direction varies with wind speed, especially for speeds less than 7 m/s. The bias depends on characteristics of each satellite sensor and its retrieval algorithm for wind vector data. All these results will be important as guidance in choosing the most suitable wind product for applications and for constructing blended SSW products.展开更多
Traffic flow prediction is an important component for real-time traffic-adaptive signal control in urban arterial networks.By exploring available detector and signal controller information from neighboring intersectio...Traffic flow prediction is an important component for real-time traffic-adaptive signal control in urban arterial networks.By exploring available detector and signal controller information from neighboring intersections,a dynamic data-driven flow prediction model was developed.The model consists of two prediction components based on the signal states(red or green) for each movement at an upstream intersection.The characteristics of each signal state were carefully examined and the corresponding travel time from the upstream intersection to the approach in question at the downstream intersection was predicted.With an online turning proportion estimation method,along with the predicted travel times,the anticipated vehicle arrivals can be forecasted at the downstream intersection.The model performance was tested at a set of two signalized intersections located in the city of Gainesville,Florida,USA,using the CORSIM microscopic simulation package.Analysis results show that the model agrees well with empirical arrival data measured at 10 s intervals within an acceptable range of 10%-20%,and show a normal distribution.It is reasonably believed that the model has potential applicability for use in truly proactive real-time traffic adaptive signal control systems.展开更多
Based on the data recorded by the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and using new methods, the short-term variations of the ambient stress field of Yunnan and its adjacent areas are monitored in real time. Wi...Based on the data recorded by the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and using new methods, the short-term variations of the ambient stress field of Yunnan and its adjacent areas are monitored in real time. With the in-depth analyses of the spatial-temporal evolution of the ambient stress field prior to the 2004, Shuangbai M_S5.0 earthquake, concrete procedures for predicting the three elements of the earthquake are presented.展开更多
In this study, two deep convective cloud cases were analyzed in detail to study their initiation and evolution. In both cases, all deep convective clouds were positioned at the rear of the cold front cloud bands and p...In this study, two deep convective cloud cases were analyzed in detail to study their initiation and evolution. In both cases, all deep convective clouds were positioned at the rear of the cold front cloud bands and propagated backward. Satellite data showed that prior to initiation of the deep convective clouds, thermodynamic and moist conditions were favorable for their formation. In the morning, a deep convective cloud at the rear of cold front cloud band propagated backward, the outflow boundary of which created favorable conditions for initiation. An additional deep convective cloud cluster moved in from the west and interacted with the outflow boundary to develop a mesoscale convective system(MCS) with large, ellipse-shaped deep convective clouds that brought strong rainfall. The initiation and evolution of these clouds are shown clearly in satellite data and provide significant information for nowcasting and short-term forecasting.展开更多
An approach for short-term forecasting of municipal water consumption was presented based on the largest Lyapunov exponent of chaos theory. The chaotic characteristics of time series of urban water consumption were ex...An approach for short-term forecasting of municipal water consumption was presented based on the largest Lyapunov exponent of chaos theory. The chaotic characteristics of time series of urban water consumption were examined by means of the largest Lyapunov exponent and correlation dimension. By using the largest Lyapunov exponent a short-term forecasting model for urban water consumption was developed, which was compared with the artificial neural network (ANN) approach in a case study. The result indicates that the model based on the largest Lyapunov exponent has higher prediction precision and forecasting stability than the ANN method, and its forecasting mean relative error is 9.6% within its maximum predictable time scale while it is 60.6% beyond the scale.展开更多
In this study, surface air temperature from 75 meteorological stations above 3000 m on the Tibetan Plateau are applied for evaluation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) third-generation r...In this study, surface air temperature from 75 meteorological stations above 3000 m on the Tibetan Plateau are applied for evaluation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) third-generation reanalysis product ERA-Interim in the period of 1979-2010. High correlations ranging from 0.973 to 0.999 indicate that ERA-Interim could capture the annual cycle very well. However, an average root-meansquare error(rmse) of 3.7°C for all stations reveals that ERA-Interim could not be applied directly for the individual sites. The biases can be mainly attributed to the altitude differences between ERA-Interim grid points and stations. An elevation correction method based on monthly lapse rates is limited to reduce the bias for all stations. Generally, ERA-Interim captured the Plateau-Wide annual and seasonal climatologies very well. The spatial variance is highly related to the topographic features of the TP. The temperature increases significantly(10°C- 15°C) from the western to the eastern Tibetan Plateau for all seasons, in particular during winter and summer. A significant warming trend(0.49°C/decade) is found over the entire Tibetan Plateau using station time series from 1979-2010. ERA-Interim captures the annual warming trend with an increase rate of 0.33°C /decade very well. The observation data and ERA-Interim data both showed the largest warming trends in winter with values of 0.67°C/decade and 0.41°C/decade, respectively. We conclude that in general ERA-Interim captures the temperature trends very well and ERA-Interim is reliable for climate change investigation over the Tibetan Plateau under the premise of cautious interpretation.展开更多
The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE) can be used as a quantification of the local predictability limit of chaotic systems. In this study, the phase-spatial structure of the local predictability limit over the...The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE) can be used as a quantification of the local predictability limit of chaotic systems. In this study, the phase-spatial structure of the local predictability limit over the Lorenz-63 system is investigated. It is found that the inner and outer rims of each regime of the attractor have a high probability of a longer than average local predictability limit, while the center part is the opposite. However, the distribution of the local predictability limit is nonuniformly organized, with adjacent points sometimes showing quite distinct error growth.The source of local predictability is linked to the local dynamics, which is related to the region in the phase space and the duration on the current regime.展开更多
Group signature schemes are fundamental cryptographic tools. A group signature scheme allows members of a group to anonymously sign misuse, the anonymity messages. To counter can be revoked by the group manager. The g...Group signature schemes are fundamental cryptographic tools. A group signature scheme allows members of a group to anonymously sign misuse, the anonymity messages. To counter can be revoked by the group manager. The group joining operation is a critical component of group signature scheme, the framing attack can be prevented by group joining processes. This paper presents an efficient group signature scheme with a simple joining protocol that is based on a "single message and signature response" interaction between the prospective user and the group manager. The security of our group signature is based on the Discrete Logarithm assumption and Decisional Linear Diffie- Hellman assumption. The formal security proof of our scheme is given in the random oracle model. Our scheme is also a very efficient short group signature scheme with efficient concurrent join.展开更多
With the growing popularity of acupuncture in western society in recent decades,many acupuncture researches and clinical studies have been conducted.These studies have significantly enhanced our understanding of acupu...With the growing popularity of acupuncture in western society in recent decades,many acupuncture researches and clinical studies have been conducted.These studies have significantly enhanced our understanding of acupuncture;nevertheless,very few findings obtained from acupuncture research have been transferred to acupuncture clinical practice,which has significantly hampered the development of acupuncture treatment.In addition,some crucial information,such as correct dosage of acupuncture,remains unknown,which further limits the interpretation of clinical trials testing the efficacy of acupuncture treatment.Future acupuncture research should try to fill these gaps and explore new ways to increase the clinical effectiveness of acupuncture treatment.展开更多
文摘The question of optimal portfolio is that finds the trading strategy satisfying the maximal expected utility function subject to some constraints. There is the optimal trading strategy under the risk neutral probability measure (martingale measure) if and only if there is no-arbitrage opportunity in the market. This paper argues the optimal wealth and the optimal value of expected utility with different utility function.
基金supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (Grant No.2009CB421406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40631005 and 40875048)
文摘A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number (ATSN) was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January February and April May.The 2.5°×2.5° resolution reanalysis data from both the US National Center for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) were applied.The model was cross-validated using data from 1979 2002.The ATSN predictions from the two reanalysis models were correlated with the observations with the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) of 0.79 (NCEP/NCAR) and 0.78 (ECMWF) and the multi-year mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) of 1.85 and 1.76,respectively.When the predictions of the two models were averaged,the ACC increased to 0.90 and the MAE decreased to 1.18,an exceptionally high score.Therefore,this new empirical approach has the potential to improve the operational prediction of the annual tropical Atlantic storm frequency.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41276026)the Ocean Special Project(No.XDA11020301)the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2009CB421205)
文摘We compared data of sea surface wind from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis(ERA-Interim) with that collected from eight buoys deployed in the Yellow and East China seas.The buoy data covered a period from 2010 to 2011,during which the longest time series without missing data extended for 329 days.Results show that the ERA-Interim wind data agree well with the buoy data.The regression coefficients between the ERA-Interim and observed wind speed and direction are greater than 0.7 and 0.79,respectively.However,the ERA-Interim wind data overestimate wind speed at most of the buoy stations,for which the largest bias is 1.8 m/s.Moreover,it is found from scatter plots of wind direction that about 13%of the ERA-Interim wind data can be classified as bad for wind speeds below6 m/s.Overall,the ERA-Interim data forecast both the wind speed and direction well,although they are not very representative of our observations,especially those where the wind speed is below 6 m/s.
文摘The grey forecasting model has been successfully applied to many fields. However, the precision of GM(1,1) model is not high. In order to remove the seasonal fluctuations in monitoring series before building GM(1,1) model, the forecasting series of GM(1,1) was built, and an inverse process was used to resume the seasonal fluctuations. Two deseasonalization methods were presented , i.e., seasonal index-based deseasonalization and standard normal distribution-based deseasonalization. They were combined with the GM(1,1) model to form hybrid grey models. A simple but practical method to further improve the forecasting results was also suggested. For comparison, a conventional periodic function model was investigated. The concept and algorithms were tested with four years monthly monitoring data. The results show that on the whole the seasonal index-GM(1,1) model outperform the conventional periodic function model and the conventional periodic function model outperform the SND-GM(1,1) model. The mean Absolute error and mean square error of seasonal index-GM(1,1) are 30.69% and 54.53% smaller than that of conventional periodic function model, respectively. The high accuracy, straightforward and easy implementation natures of the proposed hybrid seasonal index-grey model make it a powerful analysis technique for seasonal monitoring series.
文摘By statistic and dynamic analyses, we have come to the following conclusions: (1) The ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast can forecast medium-term activity of subtropical high, and the accuracy rate of forecast cannot have large improvement by translational corrections. (2) The important cause for the ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast to have errors in 1998 is that the astronomical tide is not included in the model. (3) Two indexes are found from which it can be judged that ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast will have errors if the astronomical tide is ignored in the model : ① When the 54.7?line under the moon of the nodical month astronomical singularities coincides with the trough-line of the subtropical jet flow from 50癊 to 150癊 on the 500 hPa level at 2000 L.T. of the same day, and is approximately vertical (α>60? with the isotherm, then the day 0 2 days after the appearance of the nodical month astronomical singularities is defined as the initial day. Then in three successive days after the initial day, ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast of the northern latitude of the 588 line at 120 癊 will have continuous errors as large as two latitudes (7/9). Otherwise, it won’t have continuous errors (13/13). ② Otherwise, if the 54.7 ?line is in the range of a low pressure between two high pressures, then there is a dispersive error on the day of the nodical month astronomical singularities (5/7). There is not any error (6/6) otherwise.
文摘AIM:To describe a condition that we define as early graft dysfunction(EGD)which can be identified preoperatively. METHODS:Small-for-size graft dysfunction following living-related liver transplantation(LRLT)is characterized by EGD when the graft-to-recipient body weight ratio(GRBWR)is below 0.8%.However, patients transplanted with GRBWR above 0.8%can develop dysfunction of the graft.In 73 recipients of LRLT(GRBWR>0.8%),we identified 10 patients who developed EGD.The main measures of outcomes analyzed were overall mortality,number of re-transplants and length of stay in days(LOS).Furthermore we analyzed other clinical pre-transplant variables,intraoperative parameters and post transplant data.RESULTS:A trend in favor of the non-EGD group(3-mo actuarial survival 98%vs 88%,P=0.09;3-mo graft mortality 4.7%vs 20%,P=0.07)was observed as well as shorter LOS(13 d vs 41.5 d;P=0.001)and smaller requirement of peri-operative Units of Plasma (4 vs 14;P=0.036).Univariate analysis of pre- transplant variables identified platelet count,serum bilirubin,INR and Meld-Na score as predictors of EGD. In the multivariate analysis transplant Meld-Na score (P=0.025,OR:1.175)and pretransplant platelet count(P=0.043,OR:0.956)were independently associated with EGD. CONCLUSION:EGD can be identified preoperatively and is associated with increased morbidity after LRLT. A prompt recognition of EGD can trigger a timely treatment.
基金Supported by the Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(No.U1406404)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(No.2013AA09A505)the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2012CB955600)
文摘Sea surface winds (SSWs) are vital to many meteorological and oceanographic applications, especially for regional study of short-range forecasting and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) assimilation. Spaceborne seatterometers can provide global ocean surface vector wind products at high spatial resolution. However, given the limited spatial coverage and revisit time for an individual sensor, it is valuable to study improvements of multiple microwave scatterometer observations, including the advanced scatterometer onboard parallel satellites MetOp-A (ASCAT-A) and MetOp-B (ASCAT-B) and microwave scatterometers aboard Oceansat-2 (OSCAT) and HY-2A (HY2-SCAT). These four scatterometer-derived wind products over the China Seas (0°-40°N, 105°-135°E) were evaluated in terms of spatial coverage, revisit time, bias of wind speed and direction, after comparison with ERA-Interim forecast winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and spectral analysis of wind components along the satellite track. The results show that spatial coverage of wind data observed by combination of the four sensors over the China Seas is about 92.8% for a 12-h interval at 12:00 and 90.7% at 24:00, respectively. The analysis of revisit time shows that two periods, from 5:30-8:30 UTC and 17:00-21:00 UTC each day, had no observations in the study area. Wind data observed by the four sensors along satellite orbits in one month were compared with ERA-Interim data, indicating that bias of both wind speed and direction varies with wind speed, especially for speeds less than 7 m/s. The bias depends on characteristics of each satellite sensor and its retrieval algorithm for wind vector data. All these results will be important as guidance in choosing the most suitable wind product for applications and for constructing blended SSW products.
基金Project(71101109) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Traffic flow prediction is an important component for real-time traffic-adaptive signal control in urban arterial networks.By exploring available detector and signal controller information from neighboring intersections,a dynamic data-driven flow prediction model was developed.The model consists of two prediction components based on the signal states(red or green) for each movement at an upstream intersection.The characteristics of each signal state were carefully examined and the corresponding travel time from the upstream intersection to the approach in question at the downstream intersection was predicted.With an online turning proportion estimation method,along with the predicted travel times,the anticipated vehicle arrivals can be forecasted at the downstream intersection.The model performance was tested at a set of two signalized intersections located in the city of Gainesville,Florida,USA,using the CORSIM microscopic simulation package.Analysis results show that the model agrees well with empirical arrival data measured at 10 s intervals within an acceptable range of 10%-20%,and show a normal distribution.It is reasonably believed that the model has potential applicability for use in truly proactive real-time traffic adaptive signal control systems.
基金the Key Science andTechnology R&D Project of the 10th "Five-Year Plan" of Yunnan Province , entitled "Study of Med- and Short-term Prediction Techniques for Strong Earthquakein Yunnan"(2001NG46) andthe construction of Earthquake Monitoring andPrevention Center of West Yunnan (YN150105T037-045)
文摘Based on the data recorded by the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and using new methods, the short-term variations of the ambient stress field of Yunnan and its adjacent areas are monitored in real time. With the in-depth analyses of the spatial-temporal evolution of the ambient stress field prior to the 2004, Shuangbai M_S5.0 earthquake, concrete procedures for predicting the three elements of the earthquake are presented.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China"Study of Characteristics of the Environmental Field before the Deep Convective Cloud Initiated Using Geostational Meteorological Satellite Data"(Grant No.41005026)
文摘In this study, two deep convective cloud cases were analyzed in detail to study their initiation and evolution. In both cases, all deep convective clouds were positioned at the rear of the cold front cloud bands and propagated backward. Satellite data showed that prior to initiation of the deep convective clouds, thermodynamic and moist conditions were favorable for their formation. In the morning, a deep convective cloud at the rear of cold front cloud band propagated backward, the outflow boundary of which created favorable conditions for initiation. An additional deep convective cloud cluster moved in from the west and interacted with the outflow boundary to develop a mesoscale convective system(MCS) with large, ellipse-shaped deep convective clouds that brought strong rainfall. The initiation and evolution of these clouds are shown clearly in satellite data and provide significant information for nowcasting and short-term forecasting.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.50578108) .
文摘An approach for short-term forecasting of municipal water consumption was presented based on the largest Lyapunov exponent of chaos theory. The chaotic characteristics of time series of urban water consumption were examined by means of the largest Lyapunov exponent and correlation dimension. By using the largest Lyapunov exponent a short-term forecasting model for urban water consumption was developed, which was compared with the artificial neural network (ANN) approach in a case study. The result indicates that the model based on the largest Lyapunov exponent has higher prediction precision and forecasting stability than the ANN method, and its forecasting mean relative error is 9.6% within its maximum predictable time scale while it is 60.6% beyond the scale.
基金funded by Fujian Bureau of Surveying,Mapping and Geoinformation(Grant No.2013S17)Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71373130)+2 种基金Non-Profit Research Projects of Fujian Province,China(Grant No2013R04)Key Project of the Department of Science and Technology of Fujian Province,China(Grant No.2012Y4001)supported by the ECMWF’s public web server(http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/)
文摘In this study, surface air temperature from 75 meteorological stations above 3000 m on the Tibetan Plateau are applied for evaluation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) third-generation reanalysis product ERA-Interim in the period of 1979-2010. High correlations ranging from 0.973 to 0.999 indicate that ERA-Interim could capture the annual cycle very well. However, an average root-meansquare error(rmse) of 3.7°C for all stations reveals that ERA-Interim could not be applied directly for the individual sites. The biases can be mainly attributed to the altitude differences between ERA-Interim grid points and stations. An elevation correction method based on monthly lapse rates is limited to reduce the bias for all stations. Generally, ERA-Interim captured the Plateau-Wide annual and seasonal climatologies very well. The spatial variance is highly related to the topographic features of the TP. The temperature increases significantly(10°C- 15°C) from the western to the eastern Tibetan Plateau for all seasons, in particular during winter and summer. A significant warming trend(0.49°C/decade) is found over the entire Tibetan Plateau using station time series from 1979-2010. ERA-Interim captures the annual warming trend with an increase rate of 0.33°C /decade very well. The observation data and ERA-Interim data both showed the largest warming trends in winter with values of 0.67°C/decade and 0.41°C/decade, respectively. We conclude that in general ERA-Interim captures the temperature trends very well and ERA-Interim is reliable for climate change investigation over the Tibetan Plateau under the premise of cautious interpretation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41375110]
文摘The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE) can be used as a quantification of the local predictability limit of chaotic systems. In this study, the phase-spatial structure of the local predictability limit over the Lorenz-63 system is investigated. It is found that the inner and outer rims of each regime of the attractor have a high probability of a longer than average local predictability limit, while the center part is the opposite. However, the distribution of the local predictability limit is nonuniformly organized, with adjacent points sometimes showing quite distinct error growth.The source of local predictability is linked to the local dynamics, which is related to the region in the phase space and the duration on the current regime.
基金This paper is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 61072140, 61373171 the Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities NO. B08038 the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education No. 20100203110003.
文摘Group signature schemes are fundamental cryptographic tools. A group signature scheme allows members of a group to anonymously sign misuse, the anonymity messages. To counter can be revoked by the group manager. The group joining operation is a critical component of group signature scheme, the framing attack can be prevented by group joining processes. This paper presents an efficient group signature scheme with a simple joining protocol that is based on a "single message and signature response" interaction between the prospective user and the group manager. The security of our group signature is based on the Discrete Logarithm assumption and Decisional Linear Diffie- Hellman assumption. The formal security proof of our scheme is given in the random oracle model. Our scheme is also a very efficient short group signature scheme with efficient concurrent join.
文摘With the growing popularity of acupuncture in western society in recent decades,many acupuncture researches and clinical studies have been conducted.These studies have significantly enhanced our understanding of acupuncture;nevertheless,very few findings obtained from acupuncture research have been transferred to acupuncture clinical practice,which has significantly hampered the development of acupuncture treatment.In addition,some crucial information,such as correct dosage of acupuncture,remains unknown,which further limits the interpretation of clinical trials testing the efficacy of acupuncture treatment.Future acupuncture research should try to fill these gaps and explore new ways to increase the clinical effectiveness of acupuncture treatment.