ANALYSES OF ERRORS IN MEDIUM-TERM NUMERICAL FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 1998

By statistic and dynamic analyses, we have come to the following conclusions: (1) The ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast can forecast medium-term activity of subtropical high, and the accuracy rate of forecast cannot have large improvement by translational corrections. (2) The important cause for the ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast to have errors in 1998 is that the astronomical tide is not included in the model. (3) Two indexes are found from which it can be judged that ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast will have errors if the astronomical tide is ignored in the model : ① When the 54.7?line under the moon of the nodical month astronomical singularities coincides with the trough-line of the subtropical jet flow from 50癊 to 150癊 on the 500 hPa level at 2000 L.T. of the same day, and is approximately vertical (α>60? with the isotherm, then the day 0 2 days after the appearance of the nodical month astronomical singularities is defined as the initial day. Then in three successive days after the initial day, ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast of the northern latitude of the 588 line at 120 癊 will have continuous errors as large as two latitudes (7/9). Otherwise, it won’t have continuous errors (13/13). ② Otherwise, if the 54.7 ?line is in the range of a low pressure between two high pressures, then there is a dispersive error on the day of the nodical month astronomical singularities (5/7). There is not any error (6/6) otherwise.

Assessment of wind products obtained from multiple microwave scatterometers over the China Seas

Sea surface winds （SSWs） are vital to many meteorological and oceanographic applications, especially for regional study of short-range forecasting and Numerical Weather Prediction （NWP） assimilation. Spaceborne seatterometers can provide global ocean surface vector wind products at high spatial resolution. However, given the limited spatial coverage and revisit time for an individual sensor, it is valuable to study improvements of multiple microwave scatterometer observations, including the advanced scatterometer onboard parallel satellites MetOp-A （ASCAT-A） and MetOp-B （ASCAT-B） and microwave scatterometers aboard Oceansat-2 （OSCAT） and HY-2A （HY2-SCAT）. These four scatterometer-derived wind products over the China Seas （0°-40°N, 105°-135°E） were evaluated in terms of spatial coverage, revisit time, bias of wind speed and direction, after comparison with ERA-Interim forecast winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） and spectral analysis of wind components along the satellite track. The results show that spatial coverage of wind data observed by combination of the four sensors over the China Seas is about 92.8% for a 12-h interval at 12：00 and 90.7% at 24：00, respectively. The analysis of revisit time shows that two periods, from 5：30-8：30 UTC and 17：00-21：00 UTC each day, had no observations in the study area. Wind data observed by the four sensors along satellite orbits in one month were compared with ERA-Interim data, indicating that bias of both wind speed and direction varies with wind speed, especially for speeds less than 7 m/s. The bias depends on characteristics of each satellite sensor and its retrieval algorithm for wind vector data. All these results will be important as guidance in choosing the most suitable wind product for applications and for constructing blended SSW products.

应知应懂的经济概念

身处经济社会的我们,几乎无时无刻不与一些似懂非懂的经济概念碰面,了解清楚这些词汇的准确内含,对我们的学习、生活、工作都有益处。银行准备金率日前,央行在连续数次上调银行准备金率后,下调了银行准备金率。这一措施意味着什么呢?存款准备金,也称法定存款准备金或存储准备金,是指金融机构为保证客户提取存款和资金清算需要而准备的在中央银行的存款。中央银行要求的存款准备金占其存款总额的比例就是存款准备金率。中央银行通过调整存款准备金率可以影响金融机构的信贷扩张能力,从而间接调控货币供应量。