A new support vector machine （SVM） optimized by an improved particle swarm optimization （PSO） combined with simulated annealing algorithm （SA） was proposed. By incorporating with the simulated annealing method, ...A new support vector machine （SVM） optimized by an improved particle swarm optimization （PSO） combined with simulated annealing algorithm （SA） was proposed. By incorporating with the simulated annealing method, the global searching capacity of the particle swarm optimization（SAPSO） was enchanced, and the searching capacity of the particle swarm optimization was studied. Then, the improyed particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to optimize the parameters of SVM （c,σ and ε）. Based on the operational data provided by a regional power grid in north China, the method was used in the actual short term load forecasting. The results show that compared to the PSO-SVM and the traditional SVM, the average time of the proposed method in the experimental process reduces by 11.6 s and 31.1 s, and the precision of the proposed method increases by 1.24% and 3.18%, respectively. So, the improved method is better than the PSO-SVM and the traditional SVM.展开更多
To protect trains against strong cross-wind along Qinghai-Tibet railway, a strong wind speed monitoring and warning system was developed. And to obtain high-precision wind speed short-term forecasting values for the s...To protect trains against strong cross-wind along Qinghai-Tibet railway, a strong wind speed monitoring and warning system was developed. And to obtain high-precision wind speed short-term forecasting values for the system to make more accurate scheduling decision, two optimization algorithms were proposed. Using them to make calculative examples for actual wind speed time series from the 18th meteorological station, the results show that: the optimization algorithm based on wavelet analysis method and improved time series analysis method can attain high-precision multi-step forecasting values, the mean relative errors of one-step, three-step, five-step and ten-step forecasting are only 0.30%, 0.75%, 1.15% and 1.65%, respectively. The optimization algorithm based on wavelet analysis method and Kalman time series analysis method can obtain high-precision one-step forecasting values, the mean relative error of one-step forecasting is reduced by 61.67% to 0.115%. The two optimization algorithms both maintain the modeling simple character, and can attain prediction explicit equations after modeling calculation.展开更多
基金Project(50579101) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A new support vector machine （SVM） optimized by an improved particle swarm optimization （PSO） combined with simulated annealing algorithm （SA） was proposed. By incorporating with the simulated annealing method, the global searching capacity of the particle swarm optimization（SAPSO） was enchanced, and the searching capacity of the particle swarm optimization was studied. Then, the improyed particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to optimize the parameters of SVM （c,σ and ε）. Based on the operational data provided by a regional power grid in north China, the method was used in the actual short term load forecasting. The results show that compared to the PSO-SVM and the traditional SVM, the average time of the proposed method in the experimental process reduces by 11.6 s and 31.1 s, and the precision of the proposed method increases by 1.24% and 3.18%, respectively. So, the improved method is better than the PSO-SVM and the traditional SVM.
基金Project(2006BAC07B03) supported by the National Key Technology R & D Program of ChinaProject(2006G040-A) supported by the Foundation of the Science and Technology Section of Ministry of RailwayProject(2008yb044) supported by the Foundation of Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of Central South University
文摘To protect trains against strong cross-wind along Qinghai-Tibet railway, a strong wind speed monitoring and warning system was developed. And to obtain high-precision wind speed short-term forecasting values for the system to make more accurate scheduling decision, two optimization algorithms were proposed. Using them to make calculative examples for actual wind speed time series from the 18th meteorological station, the results show that: the optimization algorithm based on wavelet analysis method and improved time series analysis method can attain high-precision multi-step forecasting values, the mean relative errors of one-step, three-step, five-step and ten-step forecasting are only 0.30%, 0.75%, 1.15% and 1.65%, respectively. The optimization algorithm based on wavelet analysis method and Kalman time series analysis method can obtain high-precision one-step forecasting values, the mean relative error of one-step forecasting is reduced by 61.67% to 0.115%. The two optimization algorithms both maintain the modeling simple character, and can attain prediction explicit equations after modeling calculation.
