位移预测是边坡地质灾害监测预警的关键,本文以温州绕城高速公路边坡为例,提出了一种新的基于图深度学习与北斗监测的边坡多因子位移预测方法。首先基于北斗高精度监测点位的空间位置对整体监测体系的图结构进行建模,构建图节点之间的...位移预测是边坡地质灾害监测预警的关键,本文以温州绕城高速公路边坡为例,提出了一种新的基于图深度学习与北斗监测的边坡多因子位移预测方法。首先基于北斗高精度监测点位的空间位置对整体监测体系的图结构进行建模,构建图节点之间的邻接矩阵。再对北斗高精度位移、降雨量、地下水位与土壤含水率多因子监测数据进行去粗差、插值与归一化等时序数据处理,并进行时空相关性分析,结果表明位移主要受连续两个月的降雨量、三级边坡的地下水位与土壤含水率的影响。将最先进的基于图深度学习的GTS(Graph for Time Series)预测模型引入边坡位移预测中,提出适用于北斗高精度边坡变形监测的GTS-BDS位移预测模型。当预测时长为1 h时,其均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)与平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)指标评价分别达到0.301、0.154与3.5%,均优于LSTM与T-GCN等模型。本文所提出的位移预测方法充分利用了北斗高精度及其他传感器监测点位之间的空间拓扑与监测数据的时序特征,从整体监测体系的角度提升边坡位移预测的准确率与可靠性,在边坡安全预警中具有良好的应用前景。展开更多
Combining mathematical morphology (MM),nonparametric and nonlinear model,a novel approach for predicting slope displacement was developed to improve the prediction accuracy.A parallel-composed morphological filter wit...Combining mathematical morphology (MM),nonparametric and nonlinear model,a novel approach for predicting slope displacement was developed to improve the prediction accuracy.A parallel-composed morphological filter with multiple structure elements was designed to process measured displacement time series with adaptive multi-scale decoupling.Whereafter,functional-coefficient auto regressive (FAR) models were established for the random subsequences.Meanwhile,the trend subsequence was processed by least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) algorithm.Finally,extrapolation results obtained were superposed to get the ultimate prediction result.Case study and comparative analysis demonstrate that the presented method can optimize training samples and show a good nonlinear predicting performance with low risk of choosing wrong algorithms.Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the MM-FAR&LSSVM predicting results are as low as 1.670% and 0.172 mm,respectively,which means that the prediction accuracy are improved significantly.展开更多
文摘位移预测是边坡地质灾害监测预警的关键,本文以温州绕城高速公路边坡为例,提出了一种新的基于图深度学习与北斗监测的边坡多因子位移预测方法。首先基于北斗高精度监测点位的空间位置对整体监测体系的图结构进行建模,构建图节点之间的邻接矩阵。再对北斗高精度位移、降雨量、地下水位与土壤含水率多因子监测数据进行去粗差、插值与归一化等时序数据处理,并进行时空相关性分析,结果表明位移主要受连续两个月的降雨量、三级边坡的地下水位与土壤含水率的影响。将最先进的基于图深度学习的GTS(Graph for Time Series)预测模型引入边坡位移预测中,提出适用于北斗高精度边坡变形监测的GTS-BDS位移预测模型。当预测时长为1 h时,其均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)与平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)指标评价分别达到0.301、0.154与3.5%,均优于LSTM与T-GCN等模型。本文所提出的位移预测方法充分利用了北斗高精度及其他传感器监测点位之间的空间拓扑与监测数据的时序特征,从整体监测体系的角度提升边坡位移预测的准确率与可靠性,在边坡安全预警中具有良好的应用前景。
基金Project(20090162120084)supported by Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of ChinaProject(08JJ4014)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China
文摘Combining mathematical morphology (MM),nonparametric and nonlinear model,a novel approach for predicting slope displacement was developed to improve the prediction accuracy.A parallel-composed morphological filter with multiple structure elements was designed to process measured displacement time series with adaptive multi-scale decoupling.Whereafter,functional-coefficient auto regressive (FAR) models were established for the random subsequences.Meanwhile,the trend subsequence was processed by least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) algorithm.Finally,extrapolation results obtained were superposed to get the ultimate prediction result.Case study and comparative analysis demonstrate that the presented method can optimize training samples and show a good nonlinear predicting performance with low risk of choosing wrong algorithms.Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the MM-FAR&LSSVM predicting results are as low as 1.670% and 0.172 mm,respectively,which means that the prediction accuracy are improved significantly.
