In this study,six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique.Thi...In this study,six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique.This technique is used to verify intensity forecasts if those forecasts call for a typhoon to dissipate or if the real typhoon dissipates.Using a contingency table,skill scores,chance,and probabilities are computed.It is shown that the skill of the six tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was highest for the 12-h forecasts,while the lowest skill of all the six models did not occur in 72-h forecasting.For both the 2008 and 2009 seasons,the average probabilities of the forecast intensity having a small error(6 m s-1) tended to decrease steadily.Some of the intensity forecasts had small skill scores,but the associated probabilities of the forecast intensity errors > 15 m s-1 were not the highest.展开更多
Based on the work of previous researchers, a new unbiased optimization algorithm—the dynamic lattice searching method with two-phase local search and interior operation (DLS-TPIO)—is proposed in this paper. This alg...Based on the work of previous researchers, a new unbiased optimization algorithm—the dynamic lattice searching method with two-phase local search and interior operation (DLS-TPIO)—is proposed in this paper. This algorithm is applied to the optimization of Lennard-Jones (LJ) clusters with N=2–650, 660, and 665–680. For each case, the putative global minimum reported in the Cambridge Cluster Database (CCD) is successfully found. Furthermore, for LJ533 and LJ536, the potential energies obtained in this study are superior to the previous best results. In DLS-TPIO, a combination of the interior operation, two-phase local search method and dynamic lattice searching method is adopted. At the initial stage of the optimization, the interior operation reduces the energy of the cluster, and gradually makes the configuration ordered by moving some surface atoms with high potential energy to the interior of the cluster. Meanwhile, the two-phase local search method guides the search to the more promising region of the configuration space. In this way the success rate of the algorithm is significantly increased. At the final stage of the optimization, in order to decrease energy of the cluster further, the positions of surface atoms are further optimized by using the dynamic lattice searching method. In addition, a simple new method to identify the central atom of icosahedral configurations is also presented. DLS-TPIO has higher computing speed and success rates than some well-known unbiased optimization methods in the literature.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421505)the Shanghai Typhoon Foundation (2009ST09)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40775060)the Program of China Mete-orological Administration (GYHY201006008 and GYHY200906002)
文摘In this study,six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique.This technique is used to verify intensity forecasts if those forecasts call for a typhoon to dissipate or if the real typhoon dissipates.Using a contingency table,skill scores,chance,and probabilities are computed.It is shown that the skill of the six tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was highest for the 12-h forecasts,while the lowest skill of all the six models did not occur in 72-h forecasting.For both the 2008 and 2009 seasons,the average probabilities of the forecast intensity having a small error(6 m s-1) tended to decrease steadily.Some of the intensity forecasts had small skill scores,but the associated probabilities of the forecast intensity errors > 15 m s-1 were not the highest.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60773194, 61070235)
文摘Based on the work of previous researchers, a new unbiased optimization algorithm—the dynamic lattice searching method with two-phase local search and interior operation (DLS-TPIO)—is proposed in this paper. This algorithm is applied to the optimization of Lennard-Jones (LJ) clusters with N=2–650, 660, and 665–680. For each case, the putative global minimum reported in the Cambridge Cluster Database (CCD) is successfully found. Furthermore, for LJ533 and LJ536, the potential energies obtained in this study are superior to the previous best results. In DLS-TPIO, a combination of the interior operation, two-phase local search method and dynamic lattice searching method is adopted. At the initial stage of the optimization, the interior operation reduces the energy of the cluster, and gradually makes the configuration ordered by moving some surface atoms with high potential energy to the interior of the cluster. Meanwhile, the two-phase local search method guides the search to the more promising region of the configuration space. In this way the success rate of the algorithm is significantly increased. At the final stage of the optimization, in order to decrease energy of the cluster further, the positions of surface atoms are further optimized by using the dynamic lattice searching method. In addition, a simple new method to identify the central atom of icosahedral configurations is also presented. DLS-TPIO has higher computing speed and success rates than some well-known unbiased optimization methods in the literature.
