建筑施工成本控制和工程造价动态管理措施

研究建筑施工成本控制和工程造价动态管理措施,确保建筑施工成本控制和工程造价处于预算范围内。通过赢得值BCWP、计划预算值ACWP以及实际支出值BCWS之间的关系进行建筑施工进度和成本的偏差分析。基于建筑工程成本差异CV、项目进度差异SV、时间差异、建筑施工成本绩效指数CPI以及建筑施工进度绩效指数SPI五个指标实现建筑施工进度与成本的动态评估。根据建筑施工已经投入的费用对建筑施工工程造价进行预测,最后采取措施实现建筑施工工程造价动态管理。

项目预测的一种新方法

预测往往使项目管理人员面临一种困境:简单的预测方法常常很不精确,而更精确的预测方法又常常深奥复杂。这里提出的这种预测方法是一种有效的折衷物,它既简单又较为精确。它可用于在整个项目寿命期各阶段的实际情况,预示项目将何时完成和项目将耗费多少预算。

Integrated Control Model for Time and Cost Risk in Project Management

Time, cost and quality are the three main targets to be controled in project management. However, the control and management of time and cost risk are usually carried out respectively, which will bring such problems as the delay of schedule by reason of the impracticability of cash flow, the money difficulties caused by delay of schedule and so on. In order to control and manage the time and cost risk effectively and simultaneously, a time & cost risk control model based on schedule programme was established with the use of the quantitativemodels of BCWS, BCWP and ACWP in this paper. Subsequently, the analysis of variance for the whole project and the single activity was introduced on the basis of BCWS, BCWP and ACWP so that the project can be controlled and managed effectively. Furthermore, an example given behind in detail expressly illustrated that the model set up above was practicableto project management. However, the method of optimizing the cash flow based on time and cost risk to obtain BCWS should be considered properlyand carefully with respect to the different circumstances of the project, and an efficient and adequate interval report system should be set up on the site of the project.

Prognostic value of coronary artery calcium score in patients with stable an-gina pectoris after percutaneous coronary intervention

Objectives To evaluate the prognostic value of the coronary artery calcium （CAC） score in patients with stable angina pectoris （SAP） who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention （PCI）. Methods A total of 334 consecutive patients with SAP who underwent first PCI following multi-slice computer tomography （MSCT） were enrolled from our institution between January 2007 and June 2012. The CAC score was calculated according to the standard Agatston calcium scoring algorithm. Complex PCI was defined as use of high pressure bal-loon, kissing balloon and/or rotablator. Procedure-related complications included dissection, occlusion, perforation, no/slow flow and emer-gency coronary artery bypass grafting. Main adverse cardiac events （MACE） were defined as a combined end point of death, non-fatal myo-cardial infarction, target lesion revascularization and rehospitalization for cardiac ischemic events. Results Patients with a CAC score〉300 （n=145） had significantly higher PCI complexity （13.1%vs. 5.8%, P=0.017） and rate of procedure-related complications （17.2%vs. 7.4%, P=0.005） than patients with a CAC score≤300 （n=189）. After a median follow-up of 22.5 months （4-72 months）, patients with a CAC score≤300 differ greatly than those patients with CAC score＆gt;300 in cumulative non-events survival rates （88.9 vs. 79.0%, Log rank 4.577, P=0.032）. After adjusted for other factors, the risk of MACE was significantly higher [hazard ratio （HR）：4.3, 95%confidence inter-val （95%CI）：2.4-8.2, P=0.038] in patients with a CAC score〉300 compared to patients with a lower CAC score. Conclusions The CAC score is an independent predictor for MACE in SAP patients who underwent PCI and indicates complexity of PCI and proce-dure-related complications.

Vorticity Budget Study on the Seasonal Upper Circulation in the Northern South China Sea from Altimetry Data and a Numerical Model

Based on the EOF analyses of Absolute Dynamic Topography satellite data, it is found that, in summer, the northern South China Sea （SCS） is dominated by an anticyclonic gyre whilst by a cyclonic one in winter. A connected single-layer and two-layer model is employed here to investigate the dynamic mechanism of the circulation in the northern SCS. Numerical experi- ments show that the nonlinear term, the pressure torque and the planetary vorticity adveetion play important roles in the circulation of the northern SCS, whilst the contribution by seasonal wind stress curl is local and limited. Only a small part of the Kuroshio water intrudes into the SCS, it then induces a positive vorticity band extending southwestward from the west of the Luzon Strait （LS） and a negative vorticity band along the 200 m isobath of the northern basin. The positive vorticity field induced by the local summer wind stress curl is weaker than that induced in winter in the northern SCS. Besides the Kuroshio intrusion and monsoon, the water trans- ports via the Sunda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage are also important to the circulation in the northern SCS, and the induced vorticity field in summer is almost contrary to that in winter. The strength variations of these three key factors （Kuroshio, monsoon and the water transports via the Sunda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage） determine the seasonal variations of the vorticity and eddy fields in the northern SCS. As for the water exchange via the LS, the Kuroshio intrusion brings about a net inflow into the SCS, and the monsoon has a less effect, whilst the water transports via the Sunda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage are the most important influencing factors, thus, the water exchange of the SCS with the Pacific via the LS changes dramatically from an outflow of the SCS in summer to an inflow into the SCS in winter.

Fixed Assets Valuation in the Condition of Bankruptcy Risk： The Role of Estimates

One of the most important issues relating to the economic activity of an enterprise is a reliable valuation of assets. It is also one of the key elements in the condition of bankruptcy risk. The aim of this paper is to present the results of the author＇s empirical research concerning the usefulness of the estimates in the valuation of fixed assets held by the enterprises facing bankruptcy. The empirical research was carried out on a group of 100 companies on which courts declared bankruptcy in 2011 in Poland. The study sample constitutes 14% of the population and is a significant representation of the phenomenon. For comparisons of the carrying amounts and the estimated values, the assets recognized in the balance sheet under ＂property, plant, and equipment （PPE）＂ were selected. During the first stage of the research, the significance of PPE in bankruptcy proceedings was confirmed by comparing the share of their value within the estate with the costs of the proceedings recorded as a percentage of the value of the debtor＇s estate. In the next stage of the research, comparisons between the carrying amounts and the estimated values were made. Simple regression models were constructed. The research results confirm that in the case of a substantial doubt about an entity＇s ability to continue as a going concern, the informative value of financial statements is limited and the estimates of the fixed assets value are of fundamental importance.

Validation of a method to predict hammer speed from cable force

Purpose： The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a method that would facilitate immediate feedback on linear hammer speed during training. Methods： Three-dimensional hammer head positional data were measured and used to calculate linear speed （calculated speed） and cable force. These data were used to develop two linear regression models （shifted and non-shifted） that would allow prediction of hammer speed from measured cable force data （predicted speed）. The accuracy of the two models was assessed by comparing the predicted and calculated speeds. Averages of the coefficient of multiple correlation （CMC） and the root mean square （RMS） of the difference between the predicted and calculated speeds for each throw of each participant were used to assess the level of accuracy of the predicted speeds. Results： Both regression models had high CMC values （0.96 and 0.97） and relatively low RMS values （1.27 m/s and 1.05 m/s） for the non-shifted and shifted models, respectively. In addition, the average percentage differences between the predicted and calculated speeds were 6.6% and 4.7% for the non-shifted and shifted models, respectively. The RMS differences between release speeds attained via the two regression models and those attained via three-dimensional positional data were also computed. The RMS differences between the predicted and calculated release speeds were 0.69 m/s and 0.46 m/s for the non-shifted and shifted models, respectively. Conclusion： This study successfully derived and validated a method that allows prediction of linear hammer speed from directly measured cable force data. Two linear regression models were developed and it was found that either model would be capable of predicting accurate speeds. However, data predicted using the shifted regression model were more accurate.

Research on the performance management of the special funds in provincial colleges and universities

This paper is a comprehensive data collection and analysis of the special performance of the managed fund in provincial universities, which has very important academic value and theoretical and practical significance for the effective and rational improvement of the utilization ratio of the special funds, the specification of the management the university capitals and the ceaseless development of the education reform. It also has very important academic value and theoretical practical significance for the improvement of the financial management levels, the introduction of the evaluation results of the special funds into the budget appropriation mechanism, the refinement of the budget planning of the special funds, the improvement of the scientificalness and accuracy of the budget planning oft he special fimds, and the further strengthening of the management of the expenditure and balance of the special funds of universities, and the formulation of the scientific and effective performance evaluation methods, and the formation of the theoretical platform of the performance management evaluation.

Study on algorithm of dynamic uncalibrated eye-in-hand visual servoing system

Currently, most visual servoing system must be calibrated, while it is impossible to calibrate cameras and robot models precisely in industrial practice, so a novel dynamic uncalibrated eye-in-hand visual servoing system of tracking a moving target is proposed. The method does not require calibration of camera and robot kinematic models. Vision guided algorithm for tracking dynamic image is developed through minimizing nonlinear objective function. For the large residual has not been approximated in dynamic environment and the change of composite image Jacobian with time increment has not been computed in visual servoing system now,large residuals are dynamic approximated and the change of composite image Jacobian at each iterative step is computed. Simulation results demonstrate the validity of these approaches.

Estonian Taxation System and Innovation

The economic crisis of the last three years, which has hit the world, especially the Baltic States together with their ultraliberal way of economy, has forced to look for solutions to overcome the depression. A low level of taxation, the policy of＂thin state policy＂ and a small share of public sector have influenced the macroeconomics of Estonia since its re-independence. The indirect taxes, especially the consumption taxes, are dominating in Estonian taxation system. The increase of tax burden a little more than 2% in 2009 through the increase of value added tax （VAT） and excises, and the pruning of income taxation benefits did not enlarge state budget in the same amount. The pruning of budget did not just decrease the internal market of the state very rapidly, but also decrease the incomes of the future periods, due to a big dominant of consumption taxes. The economic depression, which began in 2008, has demonstrated a week orientation of Estonian economy, threaten its taxation system on innovation. The amount of investments has essentially decreased than the decrease of GDP and state budget.

Prying Force Assessment Using Nonlinear Finite Element Model

Steel connection design using pre-tensioned bolts depends significantly on the value of the Prying forces exerted from the end plate. The Egyptian Code ECP （205） suggested a formula that can determine the Prying force value. In this research, the Prying force is numerically computed in a T-Stub connection using nonlinear finite element techniques. The model uses plane stress four node elements with two degrees of freedom per node to simulate the flange of the T-Stub. The bolts are simulated using a truss element with large deformation capability to allow modeling of the pretension force. Surface to surface gap elements are used in order to simulate the contact between the T-Stub and the supporting element. Parametric study on the end plate thickness, bolt size, bolt arrangement and pretension forces is performed in order to calibrate the Code formula. The parametric study covers all the practical ranges of the variables. The study revealed that the Code formula, inaccurately, determines the Prying force in a certain range. Moreover, a new equation for the prying force is developed using regression analysis on the finite element results.

Ethics and the Financial and Budgetary Discipline in the Ministry of Defence

This article deals with the relation between ethics and financial and budgetary discipline during economic and social recession in the Czech Republic. We find causes of economic and social recession in the Czech Republic in the loss of democratic and human values. Czech Republic was ranked the 57th place in the Corruption Perceptions index 2013 out of the 177 countries assessed, which is the same result achieved by Bahrain, Croatia, and Namibia. Among the 31 European Union （EU） member states and Norway, Switzerland, and Iceland, the Czech Republic is on the 25th site. Market as well as public sector and public finances should follow unwritten rules of ethics and ethical behavior. Such rules should be followed especially by politicians, officials, soldiers, and businessmen. Do we need ethics in present time？ How is the role of the code of ethics in increasing financial and budgetary discipline in the defence sector？ Is it possible to measure efficiency of the code of ethics for financial and budgetary discipline？ We explain the importance of codes of ethics and formulate essential elements that each code of ethics must contain. Next, we deal with the main rules of both financial and budgetary disciplines. Furthermore, this article offers a comparison of several codes of ethics and describes the main problems in our implementation. In the end, we introduce our draft of Code of Ethics for Economic Service Officer in the Ministry of Defence and talk about possible influences of these codes on the quality of employee＇s performance.

Theoretical Study on N=126 Shell Evolution

The nuclei around magic number N=126 are investigated in the deformed relativistic mean field (RMF)model with effective interactions TMA.We focus investigations on the N=126 isotonic chain.The N=126 shellevolution is studied by analyzing the variations of two-neutron (proton) separation energies,quadruple deformations,single particle levels etc.The good agreement of two-neutron separation energies between experimental data and calculatedvalues is reached.The RMF theory predicts that the sizes of N=126 shell become smaller and smaller withthe increasing of proton number Z.However,the N=126 shell exists in our calculated region all along.According tothe calculated two-proton separation energies,the RMF theory suggests ^(220)Pu is a two-proton drip-line nucleus in theN=126 isotonic chain.

Agricultural Support Policies and Public Budgeting in Turkey

Agriculture is a leading strategic sector in Turkey as it is in entire world. Despite this strategic significance, risks, and uncertainties, the dependence on natural conditions turns agriculture into a disadvantaged sector. Just because of these disadvantages, agriculture is protected by various support policies throughout the world. Agricultural policies of Turkey have initiated with institutionalization policies of the Republican period and progressed through product supports, input supports, and low-interest credit implementations of the planned period. These policies experienced serious reforms at the beginning of 2000s. Within the scope of Agricultural supports and Reforms Implementation Project （ARIP）, agricultural supports tried to be gathered under a single roof and Direct Income Support （DIS） implementations started. The DIS implementations lasted for eight years and terminated in 2008. The aim of this study is to examine agricultural supports in Turkey and their shares in the public budget. As material, macroeconomic data are used in this study. The data consist of transfers from the ministry of food, agriculture, and livestock to agriculture and budget numbers. The results of the study reveal that current agricultural policy tools are implemented as area-based supports, subsidiary payments, rural development, and agricultural insurance supports. The budget allocated to agriculture and the share of agricultural supports in Gross Domestic Product （GDP） of Turkey does not exhibit much change in years. Considering the policies and supports provided in developed countries and especially in European Union （EU） countries, it recommend for Turkey that the share of agricultural supports in total budget should be increased to levels in those countries.

挣值理论在工程项目投资控制中的运用

挣值分析法是工程项目费用/进度综合度量和监控的有效方法.本文结合世界知名的专业项目管理软件P3E/C来论述挣值理论应用于项目投资控制的总体思路和操作方法.

A review of the methods for determining cost-effectiveness threshold in health care

Cost-effectiveness analysis（CEA） is increasingly important in health care decision making.Cost-effectiveness threshold is a critical parameter in the cost-effectiveness analysis.This review introduces the concept of cost-effectiveness threshold, summarizes its determining methods,and classifies the existing methods into two kinds according to budget constraints,then analyzes the merit and demerit of every methods.When there is a flexible budget,the methods for determining the cost-effectiveness threshold include inferring the threshold from previous decisions,comparison with other health care technology or transfer from elsewhere in the public sector,social willingness-to-pay approach,GDP per capita criteria,and rule of thumb.When there is a fixed budget,the methods for determining the cost-effectiveness threshold include shadow price approach,opportunity cost approach,and ICER threshold-searcher model.Each approach to determining threshold has its strength and weakness.The aim of this article is to introduce the existing methods and discuss the features of each method.The background information,such as the definition of threshold,is also described.The basic theory of cost-effectiveness threshold is elaborated,and we recommend the establishment of a cost-effectiveness threshold in the Chinese health care.

Predicting crest settlement in concrete face rockfill dams using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and gene expression programming intelligent methods

This paper deals with the estimation of crest settlement in a concrete face rockfill dam （CFRD）, utilizing intelligent methods. Following completion of dam construction, considerable movements of the crest and the body of the dam can develop during the first impoundment of the reservoir. Although there is vast experience worldwide in CFRD design and construction, few accurate experimental relationships are available to predict the settlement in CFRD. The goal is to advance the development of intelligent methods to estimate the subsidence of dams at the design stage. Due to dam zonifieation and uncertainties in material properties, these methods appear to be the appropriate choice. In this study, the crest settlement behavior of CFRDs is analyzed based on compiled data of 24 CFRDs constructed during recent years around the world, along with the utilization of gene ex- pression programming （GEP） and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system （ANFIS） methods. In addition, dam height （H）, shape factor （St）, and time （t, time after first operation） are also assessed, being considered major factors in predicting the settlement behavior. From the relationships proposed, the values ofR2 for both equations of GEP （with and without constant） were 0.9603 and 0.9734, and for the three approaches of ANFIS （grid partitioning （GP）, subtractive clustering method （SCM）, and fuzzy c-means clustering （FCM）） were 0.9693, 0.8657, and 0.8848, respectively. The obtained results indicate that the overall behavior evaluated by this approach is consistent with the measured data of other CFRDs.