特朗普政府气候与环境预算变化及影响

美国曾是最积极推动国际社会应对气候变化的国家,但自特朗普政府上台以来,始终认为气候变化是"中国的骗局",反对气候变化研究,其提交国会的2018财年预算,试图大幅削减13个部门涉及气候变化与环境及其相关领域的预算。特朗普政府大幅削减联邦对气候变化与环境研究的资金支持将导致美国气候与环境研究面临巨大的风险和不确定性,也对美国气候与环境领域的能力建设、观测与建模、适应与评估、科研队伍建设和国际承诺履行产生深刻影响。基于此,我国可加强相关领域研发投入、扩大对美国合作并积极吸引人才。

中美自然资源管理模式分析及其可持续发展启示

美国对自然资源的综合管理已有百年历史,其管理经验对我国有借鉴意义。文章对比中美两国自然资源管理部门——中国自然资源部和美国内政部的管理职能与机构设置,通过美国内政部2014-2023财年的预算变化分析美国自然资源管理重心和政策导向变化。文章探讨了美国自然资源管理政策导向对中国的启示,针对我国自然资源管理存在的问题,从管理理念、发展方向和管理模式等方面提出相关可持续发展对策。

环保支出决策:渐进还是间断均衡——基于中国省级面板数据的分析

由于一味追求经济发展,环境治理问题一直未得到我国政府足够的重视,环保支出长期不足,导致环境污染持续恶化。面对环境污染所带来的压力,国家治理理应作出积极的回应,但是,环保支出不仅没有得到逐年的稳步增长,而是处于剧烈的波动状态,甚至经历了大幅度的削减。为什么环保支出会出现这样的变化?为了解答这个问题,本研究以支出变化为切入点,分析了我国2000—2010年30个省的环保支出变化,发现其属于间断均衡模式。然后在间断均衡决策理论的基础上,发展出"决策者注意力-体制摩擦"的解释框架和两条研究假设,用我国环保面板数据对其进行了检验,发现预算决策由于受到决策者注意力和体制摩擦的共同影响,环保支出呈现出间断均衡的特点。当决策者注意力偏离环保事务和体制摩擦非常大的时候,环保支出很难得到大幅增长。

Seasonal variability of salinity budget and water exchange in the northern Indian Ocean from HYCOM assimilation

Based on HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) assimilation and observations, we analyzed seasonal variability of the salinity budget in the southeastern Arabian Sea (AS) and the southern part of the Bay of Bengal (BOB), as well as water exchange between the two basins. Results show that fresh water flux cannot explain salinity changes in salinity budget of both regions. Oceanic advection decreases salinity in the southeastern AS during the winter monsoon season and increases salinity in the southern BOB during the summer monsoon season. In winter, the Northeast Monsoon Current (NMC) carries fresher water from the BOB westward into the southern AS; this westward advection is confined to 4°-6°N and the upper 180 m south of the Indian peninsula. Part of the less saline water then turns northward, decreasing salinity in the southeastern AS. In summer, the Southwest Monsoon Current (SMC) advects high-salinity water from the AS eastward into the BOB, increasing salinity along its path. This eastward advection of high-salinity water south of the India Peninsula extends southward to 2°N, and the layer becomes shallower than in winter. In addition to the monsoon current, the salinity difference between the two basins is important for salinity advection.

Simulating Net Carbon Budget of Forest Ecosystems and Its Response to Climate Change in Northeastern China Using Improved FORCCHN

As dominant biomes,forests play an important and indispensable role in adjusting the global carbon balance under climate change.Therefore,there are scientific and political implications in investigating the carbon budget of forest ecosystems and its response to climate change.Here we synthesized the most recent research progresses on the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems,and applied an individual-based forest ecosystem carbon budget model for China(FORCCHN) to simulate the dynamics of the carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems in the northeastern China.The FORCCHN model was further improved and applied through adding variables and modules of precipitation(rainfall and snowfall) interception by tree crown,understory plants and litter.The results showed that the optimized FORCCHN model had a good performance in simulating the carbon budget of forest ecosystems in the northeastern China.From 1981 to 2002,the forests played a positive role in absorbing carbon dioxide.However,the capability of forest carbon sequestration had been gradually declining during the the same period.As for the average spatial distri-bution of net carbon budget,a majority of the regions were carbon sinks.Several scattered areas in the Heilongjiang Province and the Liaoning Province were identified as carbon sources.The net carbon budget was apparently more sensitive to an increase of air temperature than change of precipitation.

Glacier Changes during the Past 40 Years in the West Kunlun Shan

Recent studies on glaciers in the West Kunlun Shan, northwest Tibetan Plateau, have shown that they may be stable or retreating slightly. Here, we assess changes in the mass of the glaciers in the West Kunlun Shan(WKS) in an attempt to understand the processes that control their behavior. Glaciers over the recent 40 years(1970-2010) have shrunk 3.4±3.1%in area, based on a comparison between two Chinese glacier inventories. Variations of surface elevations, derived from ICESat-GLAS(Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-Geoscience Laser Altimeter System) elevation products(GLA14 data) using the robust linear-fit method, indicate that the glaciers have been gaining mass at a rate of 0.23±0.24 m w.e./a since 2003. The annual mass budget for the whole WKS range from 2003 to 2009 is estimated to be 0.71±0.62 Gt/a. This gain trend is confirmed by MOD10A1 albedo for the WKS region which shows a descent of the mean snowline altitude from 2003 to 2009.

Carbon budget proposal： a framework for an equitable and sustainable international climate regime

A worldwide consensus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions has been reached at the technical and political level. However, as the issue involves economic costs and developmental interests, the international institutional framework for addressing global greenhouse gas emissions has consistently failed to balance the demands of equity and sustainability. But the sustainability of carbon budget proposal is undoubtedly achievable if the total global carbon budget （the total amount of carbon permitted by climate security） is made an absolute constraint. If an initial allocation is made among all members of the global village on a per capita basis, a limited total budget could not only meet basic needs but also ensure equity. Taking into account historical emission levels and future needs, we should implement carbon budget transfer payments and devise a corresponding financial mechanism to ensure efficient allocation. Unlike the phase-by-phase progress and provisional goals of the Kyoto Protocol, the carbon budget proposal presented here is a comprehensive and holistic package. Due to the politicization of the climate change question, however, many technical issues can only be worked out through international political and diplomatic negotiations.