公共卫生事件“前预警期”的地方政府应对权配置

《传染病防治法》规定,对传染病公共卫生事件决定并宣布预警、公布疫情信息等,属于国家卫生行政部门、省级政府及其卫生行政部门的职权。在疫情风险已经显现、而上级有权机关预警决定、疫情信息公布尚待作出的“前预警期”,疫情风险发生地的省级以下地方政府不可消极等待,必须主动采取必要措施提前应对,这就需要立法赋予地方政府在预警前端的风险应对权。这些权力可包括疑似病例披露权、防护知识指导权、临时强制处置权等。现行相关立法对这类职权存在配置上的欠缺,需通过修改《突发事件应对法》《传染病防治法》《突发公共卫生事件应急条例》等法律法规作出明确规定,以便省级以下地方政府依法定职权积极开展防控工作,及时维护人民群众的生命健康和财产安全。

弃儿·电影院·台风——朱山坡长篇小说《风暴预警期》的几个关键词

在朱山坡的长篇小说《风暴预警期》中,有几个语词对小说人物内在的精神状态及小说的创作意图起着非常关键的作用。它们分别是弃儿、电影院和台风。弃儿不仅是小说人物的一种身份,更是人物精神上的一种状态,它直接引发了小说人物内在的恐惧感和孤独感;电影院作为蛋镇一个诗意地存在,它改变着蛋镇人生命感觉的同时也抚慰着小说人物破碎的生命;台风作为贯穿小说结构和内容的核心意象,其自身所蕴含的多重隐喻则透露出创作意图。

昭平台水库干旱预警期和旱限水位分析

近年异常天气频繁出现,干旱灾害增多,给鲁山县工农业生产、居民生活用水和平顶山市城市生态用水带来不同程度的影响。该文依据《旱限水位(流量)确定办法(办旱—[2011]32号)》,通过分析昭平台水库1980-2020年历史资料,根据昭平台水库用水需求、入库来水量、各取水口高程及最低取水水位等,统计分析结果,以三个月滑动计算的水库应供水量与死库容之和最大值对应的库水位为依据,确定采用163.50 m作为昭平台水库旱限水位,相应库容10126万m^(3),干旱预警期三个月,供水库抗旱决策参考。

闽江二期洪水预警报系统

介绍了闽江第二期洪水预报预警系统的结构 ,各个子系统的功能、作用和特点。该系统在依据三明市汛期 ,做到了预报准、传输及时。为江河、水库的防汛抢险提供了科学的决策依据 。

自然崩落法顶板稳定性监测分析与预警研究

为有效预警自然崩落法开采过程中顶板大面积崩落,确定顶板失稳预警期,基于微震、时域反射、钻孔电视等综合监测数据,研究岩体失稳过程点监测数据及微震活动性参数变化特征。结果表明:基于多源参数可有效预警顶板失稳事件,但点监测无法兼顾整个采区顶板,大尺度区域性监测主要依靠微震监测系统;根据顶板失稳事件前后b值、累积视体积、能量指数、施密特数等微震活动性参数变化特征,确定普朗铜矿顶板失稳预警期为24 d。研究结果可为后续整个采区其他区域顶板稳定性监测预警工作提供借鉴。

海南地区新型雷电预警系统预警效率的评估与分析

基于2017年5-8月全国雷电监测定位系统ADTD探测到的闪电定位数据,根据标准IEC-62793中对雷电预警系统预警效率评估的定义,对海南地区部分雷电预警站点的预警效率进行了统计分析。海南地区新型雷电预警系统的平均有效预警率(MPOD)约为85%,高于大部分雷电预警系统的有效预警率;对闪电事件的预警率平均可达到95%,表明可以对发生在预警站点有效覆盖范围内95>的闪电提供有效预警;平均错误预警率(MFAR)约为73%,与各类预警系统相比,错误预警率偏高;预警提前期的平均值和中值分别为13.9min和9.6min。

新疆玛河流域绿洲农田开垦后土壤环境演变分析

【目的】研究农田开垦后土壤退化特征及演变规律。【方法】以玛纳斯河流域绿洲为例,利用定位试验、空间替代法及主成分分析法,研究分析冲积扇下部绿洲农田开垦后土壤环境的变化过程。【结果】随开垦年限的增加,农田杂草群落由耐盐性多年生植被演替为1年生植被,演替序列主要集中在6～8年,而后进入平稳阶段。土壤耕层总盐变化呈现先降低后升高的趋势,而土壤养分表现为相反变化。主成分分析表明,农田开垦后土壤质量总体表现为良性发展而后开始退化,在开垦10年土壤整体质量状况趋向最大,而后综合评价值转为负值。【结论】可将10～15年作为反映该区域土壤质量总体退化的预警期。

辽宁省水库旱警水位确定方法研究

水库旱警水位是做好抗旱指挥调度的重要基础。分析了水库旱警水位的概念,探讨了确定水库旱警水位的原则、步骤和方法,并以大伙房水库为例,对本文所述方法进行应用。分析结果表明,根据本文方法确定的大伙房水库旱警水位符合其调度实际情况,旱警水位结果趋于合理。今后,应进一步研究分期、分级水库旱警水位。

Short-term warning and integrity monitoring algorithm for coal mine shaft safety

A new short-term warning and integrity monitoring algorithm was proposed for coal mine shaft safety. The Kalman filter (KF) model was used to extract real global positioning system (GPS) kinematic deformation information. The short-term warning model was built by using the two-side cumulative sum (CUSUM) test, which further improves the warning system reliability. Availability (the minimum warning deformation, MWD), false alarm rate (the average run length, ARL), missed rate (the warning delay, WD) and the relationships among them were analyzed and the method choosing warning parameters is given. A test of a deformation simulation platform shows that the warning algorithm can be effectively used for steep deformation warning. A field experiment of the Malan mine shaft in Shanxi coal area illustrates that the proposed algorithm can detect small dynamic changes and the corresponding occurring time. At given warning thresholds (MWD is 15 mm and ARL is 1000),the detected deformations of two consecutive days’ deformation sequences with the algorithm occur at the 705th epoch (705 s) and the 517th epoch (517 s), respectively.

Early-warning of Mud Expansion in Sewage Treatment Plants by A/O Technology

Early-warning is an effective way to control mud expansion in sewage treatment plants with A/O technology. In the research, warning indices and technology of active mud were explored and it is concluded that bacteria growth in mud can be obtained by observation of mud appearance and microorganism variety, and measurement of the number of filamentous bacteria, water quality, mud load and age, dissolved oxygen, temperature and pH. Furthermore, filamentous bacteria in mud can be researched through fluorescence in situ hybridization, PCR-temperature denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and PCR-single-stranded conformation polymorphism in order to determine the characters and states of active mud to achieve early warning of mud expansion.

Non-Structural Mitigation Programs For Sediment-Related Disasters after the Chichi Earthquake in Taiwan

Following the Chichi Earthquake （ML=7.3） in 1999, sediment-related disasters, such as landslides and debris flows, have become more frequent in Taiwan. Because engineering structures cannot be fully and rapidly emplaeed, the government has initiated non-structural hazard mitigation programs. Initially, community debris flow evacuation drills were promoted in 2000. Typhoon Toraji caused numerous debris flow events in July 2001, and some communities evacuated according to the drills, significantly reducing the numbers of possible casualties. Based on that result, the government expanded the program for evacuation drills. Secondly, the early warning system created after the Chichi Earthquake will prevent many potential future casualties. Rainfall threshold values for debris flow warnings in different areas are determined from information received from local weather stations and modified for local geomorphologic situations. Real- time information is gradually being integrated to create a debris flow disaster warning system, the goal of which is to provide warnings to zones in which debris flows are likely. The warning system was launched in 2005 and has two levels of alarms： yellow and red. The final, red alarm triggers enforced evacuation. Overall, the decrease in casualties from debris flows during the decade after the Chichi Earthquake is not the result of a decrease in number or severity of sediment related disasters, but is more directly related to the gradually improved early warning and evacuation system. However, the compound hazards resulting from Typhoon Morakotin 2009 remind us of the ongoing need for improving the existing mitigation system.

Application of extension theory in risk zoning of debris flow in Beijing

The occurrence of debris flow is affected by many factors. Risk zoning of debris flow plays a vital role in the early-warning and prediction of abrupt geological hazards, and exploration of new method is needed in the early-warning and prediction of geological hazards. The extension theory is a new method to solve contradiction matters. Based on extension theory, AHP and GIS, the risk zoning model of debris flow was established in this paper. The result of this research provides a new way in the risk zoning, early-warning and prediction of debris flow

A Real-time Monitoring and Early Warning System for Landslides in Southwest China

Landslides not only cause property losses,but also kill and injure large numbers of people every year in the mountainous areas. These losses and casualties may be avoided to some extent by early warning systems for landslides. In this paper, a realtime monitoring network and a computer-aided automatic early warning system(EWS) are presented with details of their design and an example of application in the Longjingwan landslide, Kaiyang County, Guizhou Province. Then, according to principle simple method of landslide prediction, the setting of alarm levels and the design of appropriate counter-measures are presented. A four-level early warning system(Zero, Outlook, Attention and Warning) has been adopted, and the velocity threshold was selected as the main warning threshold for the landslide occurrence, but expert judgment is included in the EWS to avoid false alarms. A case study shows the applicability and reliability for landslide risk management, and recommendations are presented for other similar projects.

Recent Developments of Earthquake Early Warning in California,USA

In this paper we outline the science,engineering,and societal considerations of the prototype Earthquake Early Warning System( EEWS) in California and detail the development and testing of methodologies in the last 10 years in America. Also,we give a brief introduction of Earthquake Early Warning( EEW) in China,and based on the summary of EEW in California we make an analysis of the perspectives,misconceptions,and challenges that China may have.

Event Scenario Analysis for the Design of Rockslide Countermeasures

The Torgiovannetto quarry(Assisi municipality,central Italy) is an example of a site where the natural equilibrium was altered by human activity,causing current slope instability phenomena which threaten two roadways important for the local transportation.The quarry front,having a height of about 140 m,is affected by a 182,000 m3 rockslide developed in intensely fractured limestone and is too large to be stabilized.In 2003 some tension cracks were detected in the vegetated area above the quarry upper sector.From then on,several monitoring campaigns were carried out by means of different instrumentations(topographic total station,extensometers,inclinometers,ground-based interferometric radar,laser scanner and infrared thermal camera),allowing researchers to accurately define the landslide area and volume.The latter's major displacements are localized in the eastern sector.The deformational field appears to be related to the seasonal rainfall.The landslide hazard associated with the worst case scenario was evaluated in terms of magnitude,intensity and triggering mechanism.For the definition of the possible runout process the DAN 3D code was employed.The simulation results were used in order to design and construct a retaining embankment.Furthermore,in order to preserve both the safety of the personnelinvolved in its realization and of the roadways users,an early warning system was implemented.The early warning system is based on daily-averaged displacement velocity thresholds.The alarm level is reached if the prediction based on the methods of Saito(1969) and Fukuzono(1985) forecasts an imminent rupture.

Discussion on Earthquake Forecasting and Early Warning

Through analysis of natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting,the relationship between the natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting(early warning)has been discussed.Regarding the natural attributes of earthquake forecasting,it only attempts to forecast the magnitude,location and occurrence time of future earthquake based on the analysis of observational data and relevant theories and taking into consideration the present understanding of seismogeny and earthquake generation.It need not consider the consequences an earthquake forecast involves,and its purpose is to check out the level of scientific understanding of earthquakes.In respect of the social aspect of earthquake forecasting,people also focus on the consequence that the forecasting involves,in addition to its natural aspect,such as the uncertainty of earthquake prediction itself,the impact of earthquake prediction,and the earthquake resistant capability of structures(buildings),lifeline works,etc.In a word,it highlights the risk of earthquake forecasting and tries to mitigate the earthquake hazard as much as possible.In this paper,the authors also discuss the scientific and social challenges faced in earthquake prediction and analyze preliminarily the meanings and content of earthquake early warning.

Climate as the Early Warning of Outbreaks of Leptospirosis in the District of Sampang Madura Island Indonesia

In Indonesia, most transmission of leptospirosis occurs through the rat under conditions of high rainfall or flooding. Sampang is endemic leptospirosis, during March-May 2013, there were 55 patients with 8 of them died. The purpose of this study was to analyze risk factors for outbreaks leptospirosis by climatic factors. Study is cross-sectional design of variable causes or risks that occur due to the object of research are measured simultaneously. The results showed that the distribution of events is based on epidemiological characteristics of leptospirosis in districts Sampang both rainy and dry season. Analysis of climatic factors show support to the continuation of leptospirosis whose temperatures ranged from 29.35 ~C-30.62 ~C, humidity range between 63.4%-80.5%. Rainfall ranges from 183-190 ram. Incidence of leptospirosis in Sampang shows the distribution of leptospirosis cases from 18 subdistricts, 14 subdistriets are at risk of the occurrence of leptospirosis. Results obtained rat trapping species caught in the neighborhood residential home patients were mice （Rattus tanezumi and Rattus novergicus） and the identification of the leptospira in rat urine sewers rat positive standing of the potential risk of leptospirosis in the community. The conclusions are climatic conditions, rainfall remarkable effecting on the incidence of leptospirosis.

Smoothing GNSS Time Series with Asymmetric Simple Moving Averages

There is an increasing trend to apply GNSS continuous observation of short baselines to the monitoring of engineering works, such as bridges and dams, for their structural analysis and safety control. In the case of large dams, one important application of the GNSS continuous observation is thc establishment of early warning systems that demand accurate, frequently updated information and where the analysis of the baseline time series, in order to separate signal from noise is mandatory. The paper presents a study on the performance of linear filters of the asymmetric moving average type to smooth baseline time series. The transfer function of the filter is adopted as a smoothing criterion to choose an adequate order for the moving average, in face of the spectral density function of the baseline time series. Onc series of measurements of a short test baseline （325 m）, materialized in the campus of the National Laboratory for Civil Engineering, is used as an example of the proposed strategy.

Abnormally large short-term and impending earthquake geomagnetic anomaly implies a possibility of earthquake pre-warning

The study found that strong magnetic anomalies repeatedly took place before big earthquakes. Based on geomagnetic record analysis results,we discussed a possible pattern of the magnetic anomalies prior to earthquake. In meizoseismal area or epicenter,in a time period of 36 h to about 10 min before earthquake,the exceptional big geomagnetic change increases with the magnitude of earthquake. We calculated that,in a place of 1 km from the epicenter,the magnetic anomaly before destructive earthquakes of Ms 6～9 can reach to 102～104 nT(the magnitude of earth magnetic field is 104 nT) ,rather than the magnitude of 10 nT from seismomagnetic effect theories since 1960s. From this we speculated the abnormal magnetic ULF near epicenter before earthquake seems to be an "intermittent magnetic eruption". Accordingly,we proposed that geomagnetic induction earthquake alarm can be a new pre-warning method to surmount hardship in solving the puzzledom of earthquake imminent prediction.

Localizing epileptic focus and assessing electrical stimulus effects on epilepsy in rats using stretchable micro electrocorticogram electrodes

Epilepsy is a chronic nervous disease with increasing incidence worldwide,while the accurate localization of epileptic focus and the corresponding treatment are still challenging due to the lack of effective tools to monitor and modulate the related brain neurological activities.In this work,stretchable micro electrocorticogram(mECoG)electrodes are developed and used to investigate penicillininduced epilepsy in rats.The electrodes possess excellent stretchability,conformality,anti-interference ability and sufficient resolution to successfully monitor electroencephalogram(EEG)signals,which is superior to traditional rigid polyimide-based electrodes.Characteristic epileptic spike waves are detected and analyzed to study the epileptic focus and electrical stimulus effects during epileptic seizures.It is found that the spike waves occur first in the visual cortex which is likely to be the epileptic focus.Epileptic spike wave frequency quickly increases to 1.07 Hz where it reaches a plateau and remains stable.There is no dominant brain hemisphere that would show early warning of epileptic seizures.Electrical stimuli for various times are applied after administering penicillin.It is found that 15 min of electrical stimulus has the best restraining effect on epileptic seizures.The mECoG electrodes developed in this study show potentials for applications in stretchable biomedical devices.