To improve the accuracy of real-time public transport information release system, a collaborative prediction model was proposed based on cyber-physical systems architecture. In the model, the total bus travel time was...To improve the accuracy of real-time public transport information release system, a collaborative prediction model was proposed based on cyber-physical systems architecture. In the model, the total bus travel time was divided into three parts: running time, dwell time and intersection delay time, and the data were divided into three categories of historical data, static data and real-time data. The bus arrival time was obtained by fusion computing the real-time data in perception layer together with historical data and static data in collaborative layer. The validity of the collaborative model was verified by the data of a typical urban bus line in Shanghai, and 1538 sets of data were collected and analyzed from three different perspectives. By comparing the experimental results with the actual results, it is shown that the experimental results are with higher prediction accuracy, and the collaborative prediction model adopted is able to meet the demand for bus arrival prediction.展开更多
This paper presents a composite interaction formula based on the discrete-interaction operator of wave-wave nonlinear interaction for deriving its adjoint source function in the wave assimilation model. Assimilation e...This paper presents a composite interaction formula based on the discrete-interaction operator of wave-wave nonlinear interaction for deriving its adjoint source function in the wave assimilation model. Assimilation experiments were performed using the significant wave heights observed by the TOPES/POSEIDON satellite, and the gradient distribution in the physical space was also analyzed preliminarily.展开更多
To examine the influence of the harsh environment in plateau areas on the operating speed of vehicles,advanced speed prediction models for curved segments are established based on observed actual speed data.First,the ...To examine the influence of the harsh environment in plateau areas on the operating speed of vehicles,advanced speed prediction models for curved segments are established based on observed actual speed data.First,the speed characteristics at the starting,mid,and end points of a plane curve were observed on Lalin Highway and China National Highway 318 with Bushnell s handheld radar speedometer 10-1911CN.Second,the stepwise regression method was proposed to determine the significant parameters and propose the prediction models of the operating speed of cars and large vehicles for the two highways.Finally,reserved test group data were utilized to prove the validity and practicality of the proposed models.Compared with traditional methods,the established models can produce more accurate prediction results and deeply examine the nonlinear relationships between parameters and the predicted operating speed.This study provides a considerate direction and basis for the operating speed prediction model for other segments in plateau regions.展开更多
The suitable repair forecasting is needed for proper maintenance of the buildings. The appropriate maintenance planning should be based on the prognostic analysis of the repair needs. However, in Poland, maintenance p...The suitable repair forecasting is needed for proper maintenance of the buildings. The appropriate maintenance planning should be based on the prognostic analysis of the repair needs. However, in Poland, maintenance planning is currently not seen as a long-term system. Repairs are understood as extemporary work and are carried out exclusively on the basis of intermittent inspections and controls. One of the numerous factors determining maintenance planning is exploitation reliability conditioned by durability. This article presents a proposal to determine the prediction of operational reliability of the building constructed using traditional technology. The method of behaving and changing the reliability of the building throughout its use will be useful in planning renovations. The presented analysis includes apartment buildings erected in a traditional technology and regards them as technical objects. For such approached buildings, it is proposed to apply rules applied for mechanical and electrical objects. The probability of the exploitation of a building without any breakdowns in a given period of time is defined as exploitation reliability.展开更多
In order to minimize the harm caused by the instability of a planing craft, a motion prediction model is essential. This paper analyzed the feasibility of using an MGM(1,N) model in grey system theory to predict pla...In order to minimize the harm caused by the instability of a planing craft, a motion prediction model is essential. This paper analyzed the feasibility of using an MGM(1,N) model in grey system theory to predict planing craft motion and carried out the numerical simulation experiment. According to the characteristics of planing craft motion, a recurrence formula was proposed of the parameter matrix of an MGMfl,N) model. Using this formula, data can be updated in real-time without increasing computational complexity significantly. The results of numerical simulation show that using an MGM(1,N) model to predict planing motion is feasible and useful for prediction. So the method proposed in this study can reflect the planing craft motion mechanism successfully, and has rational and effective functions of forecasting and analyzing trends.展开更多
With analysis of producer's and factor supplier's dual optimization motives,this paper developed an optimal nominal output growth rate model that can conduct quantified estimation.Result of estimation of China...With analysis of producer's and factor supplier's dual optimization motives,this paper developed an optimal nominal output growth rate model that can conduct quantified estimation.Result of estimation of China's optimal industrial structure between1992 and 2009 indicates that optimal nominal output growth rate model has successfully quantified the impact of major events occurring in the process of China's economic operation on the level of deviation between actual industrial structure and optimal industrial structure.Quantitative indicators involved in this model can provide industrial policy instruments for the Chinese government in developing and adjusting industrial structure targets,optimizing resource allocation and advancing industrial structure optimization and upgrade.展开更多
Background: Concussions are a common pathology in football and multiple misconceptions exist amongst the players and managers. To address these misconceptions, and potentially reduce concussion associated sequela, ef...Background: Concussions are a common pathology in football and multiple misconceptions exist amongst the players and managers. To address these misconceptions, and potentially reduce concussion associated sequela, effective educational interventions need to be developed. However, the current knowledge and attitude status must be ascertained to appropriately develop these interventions. The purpose of this study was to assess the concussion knowledge and attitude of English professional footballers. Methods: Twenty-six participants from one English Football League Championship club completed the study. A mixed methods approach included the Rosenbaum Concussion Knowledge and Attitudes Survey (RoCKAS) and a semi-structured interview. The RoCKAS contains separate knowledge (055) and attitude (15-75) scores and was followed by a semi-structured interview consisting of concussion knowledge, attitude, and behavior related questions. Results: The mean score on the RoCK.AS knowledge was 16.4± 2.9 (range 11-22) and the attitude score was 59.6 ± 8.5 (range 41-71). The interview responses identified inconsistencies between the RoCKAS and the intended behaviors, endorsing multiple concussion misconceptions, and revealed barriers to concussion reporting. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that Championship Level English footballers have moderate concussion knowledge, safe attitudes, and good concussion symptom recognition when assessed with pen and paper questionnaires. However, within the semi-structured interview many respondents reported unsafe concussion behaviors despite accurately identifying the potential risks. Further, multiple barriers to concussion reporting were identified which included perceived severity of the injury, game situations, and the substitution rule. These findings can help form the foundation of educational interventions to potentially improve concussion reporting behaviors amongst professional footballers.展开更多
VFDs (variable frequency drives) are an integral part of many industrial plants and stations. Reliable operation and maintenance of these drives is vital to ensure sustained plant operation and availability. Underst...VFDs (variable frequency drives) are an integral part of many industrial plants and stations. Reliable operation and maintenance of these drives is vital to ensure sustained plant operation and availability. Understanding of the principles of operation of VFD systems as well as knowledge about their required operating environment is necessary for all operating personnel. Many times the operating personnel do not get involved with different technical issues until a complete failure has occurred. Hence, the awareness of the most dominant failure causes has a significant impact on assisting operators to avoid catastrophic failures and tremendous economic losses due to VFD shutdown. Proper plant design, accurate monitoring and data logging, following manufacturer preventive maintenance schedule, and choosing qualified team of operators can be the key to an efficient operation and a long lifetime for any VFD system. In this paper, we have analyzed the electrical and non-electrical causes of VFD failures based on a case study of a typical medium voltage VFD pumping station. Finally, recommendations are given from field analysis and observations.展开更多
Traditional methods for plan path prediction have low accuracy and stability. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for plan path prediction based on relative motion between positions(RMBP) by mining historical f...Traditional methods for plan path prediction have low accuracy and stability. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for plan path prediction based on relative motion between positions(RMBP) by mining historical flight trajectories. A probability statistical model is introduced to model the stochastic factors during the whole flight process. The model object is the sequence of velocity vectors in the three-dimensional Earth space. First, we model the moving trend of aircraft including the speed(constant, acceleration, or deceleration), yaw(left, right, or straight), and pitch(climb, descent, or cruise) using a hidden Markov model(HMM) under the restrictions of aircraft performance parameters. Then, several Gaussian mixture models(GMMs) are used to describe the conditional distribution of each moving trend. Once the models are built, machine learning algorithms are applied to obtain the optimal parameters of the model from the historical training data. After completing the learning process, the velocity vector sequence of the flight is predicted by the proposed model under the Bayesian framework, so that we can use kinematic equations, depending on the moving patterns, to calculate the flight position at every radar acquisition cycle. To obtain higher prediction accuracy, a uniform interpolation method is used to correct the predicted position each second. Finally, a plan trajectory is concatenated by the predicted discrete points. Results of simulations with collected data demonstrate that this approach not only fulfils the goals of traditional methods, such as the prediction of fly-over time and altitude of waypoints along the planned route, but also can be used to plan a complete path for an aircraft with high accuracy. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the superiority of this approach to some existing methods.展开更多
基金Project(2011AA010101) supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China
文摘To improve the accuracy of real-time public transport information release system, a collaborative prediction model was proposed based on cyber-physical systems architecture. In the model, the total bus travel time was divided into three parts: running time, dwell time and intersection delay time, and the data were divided into three categories of historical data, static data and real-time data. The bus arrival time was obtained by fusion computing the real-time data in perception layer together with historical data and static data in collaborative layer. The validity of the collaborative model was verified by the data of a typical urban bus line in Shanghai, and 1538 sets of data were collected and analyzed from three different perspectives. By comparing the experimental results with the actual results, it is shown that the experimental results are with higher prediction accuracy, and the collaborative prediction model adopted is able to meet the demand for bus arrival prediction.
文摘This paper presents a composite interaction formula based on the discrete-interaction operator of wave-wave nonlinear interaction for deriving its adjoint source function in the wave assimilation model. Assimilation experiments were performed using the significant wave heights observed by the TOPES/POSEIDON satellite, and the gradient distribution in the physical space was also analyzed preliminarily.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51768063,51868068)。
文摘To examine the influence of the harsh environment in plateau areas on the operating speed of vehicles,advanced speed prediction models for curved segments are established based on observed actual speed data.First,the speed characteristics at the starting,mid,and end points of a plane curve were observed on Lalin Highway and China National Highway 318 with Bushnell s handheld radar speedometer 10-1911CN.Second,the stepwise regression method was proposed to determine the significant parameters and propose the prediction models of the operating speed of cars and large vehicles for the two highways.Finally,reserved test group data were utilized to prove the validity and practicality of the proposed models.Compared with traditional methods,the established models can produce more accurate prediction results and deeply examine the nonlinear relationships between parameters and the predicted operating speed.This study provides a considerate direction and basis for the operating speed prediction model for other segments in plateau regions.
文摘The suitable repair forecasting is needed for proper maintenance of the buildings. The appropriate maintenance planning should be based on the prognostic analysis of the repair needs. However, in Poland, maintenance planning is currently not seen as a long-term system. Repairs are understood as extemporary work and are carried out exclusively on the basis of intermittent inspections and controls. One of the numerous factors determining maintenance planning is exploitation reliability conditioned by durability. This article presents a proposal to determine the prediction of operational reliability of the building constructed using traditional technology. The method of behaving and changing the reliability of the building throughout its use will be useful in planning renovations. The presented analysis includes apartment buildings erected in a traditional technology and regards them as technical objects. For such approached buildings, it is proposed to apply rules applied for mechanical and electrical objects. The probability of the exploitation of a building without any breakdowns in a given period of time is defined as exploitation reliability.
基金Supported by the Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle, Harbin Engineering Universitythe Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (HEUCFL20101113)
文摘In order to minimize the harm caused by the instability of a planing craft, a motion prediction model is essential. This paper analyzed the feasibility of using an MGM(1,N) model in grey system theory to predict planing craft motion and carried out the numerical simulation experiment. According to the characteristics of planing craft motion, a recurrence formula was proposed of the parameter matrix of an MGMfl,N) model. Using this formula, data can be updated in real-time without increasing computational complexity significantly. The results of numerical simulation show that using an MGM(1,N) model to predict planing motion is feasible and useful for prediction. So the method proposed in this study can reflect the planing craft motion mechanism successfully, and has rational and effective functions of forecasting and analyzing trends.
基金sponsored by major program of Human and Social Sciences Key Research Center under the Ministry of Education,Theory and Policy Research for the Development of China's Strategic Emerging Industries(Approval No.10JJD790013)National Social Sciences Fund major program"New Tendencies of World Industrial Development and China's Fostering of Strategic Emerging Industries"(Approval No.12&ZD068)major program of Liaoning Social Sciences Planning Fund Research on Strategies for Industrial Structure Optimization of Liaoning Province(Approval No.L10AJL004)
文摘With analysis of producer's and factor supplier's dual optimization motives,this paper developed an optimal nominal output growth rate model that can conduct quantified estimation.Result of estimation of China's optimal industrial structure between1992 and 2009 indicates that optimal nominal output growth rate model has successfully quantified the impact of major events occurring in the process of China's economic operation on the level of deviation between actual industrial structure and optimal industrial structure.Quantitative indicators involved in this model can provide industrial policy instruments for the Chinese government in developing and adjusting industrial structure targets,optimizing resource allocation and advancing industrial structure optimization and upgrade.
文摘Background: Concussions are a common pathology in football and multiple misconceptions exist amongst the players and managers. To address these misconceptions, and potentially reduce concussion associated sequela, effective educational interventions need to be developed. However, the current knowledge and attitude status must be ascertained to appropriately develop these interventions. The purpose of this study was to assess the concussion knowledge and attitude of English professional footballers. Methods: Twenty-six participants from one English Football League Championship club completed the study. A mixed methods approach included the Rosenbaum Concussion Knowledge and Attitudes Survey (RoCKAS) and a semi-structured interview. The RoCKAS contains separate knowledge (055) and attitude (15-75) scores and was followed by a semi-structured interview consisting of concussion knowledge, attitude, and behavior related questions. Results: The mean score on the RoCK.AS knowledge was 16.4± 2.9 (range 11-22) and the attitude score was 59.6 ± 8.5 (range 41-71). The interview responses identified inconsistencies between the RoCKAS and the intended behaviors, endorsing multiple concussion misconceptions, and revealed barriers to concussion reporting. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that Championship Level English footballers have moderate concussion knowledge, safe attitudes, and good concussion symptom recognition when assessed with pen and paper questionnaires. However, within the semi-structured interview many respondents reported unsafe concussion behaviors despite accurately identifying the potential risks. Further, multiple barriers to concussion reporting were identified which included perceived severity of the injury, game situations, and the substitution rule. These findings can help form the foundation of educational interventions to potentially improve concussion reporting behaviors amongst professional footballers.
文摘VFDs (variable frequency drives) are an integral part of many industrial plants and stations. Reliable operation and maintenance of these drives is vital to ensure sustained plant operation and availability. Understanding of the principles of operation of VFD systems as well as knowledge about their required operating environment is necessary for all operating personnel. Many times the operating personnel do not get involved with different technical issues until a complete failure has occurred. Hence, the awareness of the most dominant failure causes has a significant impact on assisting operators to avoid catastrophic failures and tremendous economic losses due to VFD shutdown. Proper plant design, accurate monitoring and data logging, following manufacturer preventive maintenance schedule, and choosing qualified team of operators can be the key to an efficient operation and a long lifetime for any VFD system. In this paper, we have analyzed the electrical and non-electrical causes of VFD failures based on a case study of a typical medium voltage VFD pumping station. Finally, recommendations are given from field analysis and observations.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71573184)the National Key Scientific Instrument and Equipment Development Project(No.2013YQ490879)the Special Program of Office of China Air Traffic Control Commission(No.GKG201403004)
文摘Traditional methods for plan path prediction have low accuracy and stability. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for plan path prediction based on relative motion between positions(RMBP) by mining historical flight trajectories. A probability statistical model is introduced to model the stochastic factors during the whole flight process. The model object is the sequence of velocity vectors in the three-dimensional Earth space. First, we model the moving trend of aircraft including the speed(constant, acceleration, or deceleration), yaw(left, right, or straight), and pitch(climb, descent, or cruise) using a hidden Markov model(HMM) under the restrictions of aircraft performance parameters. Then, several Gaussian mixture models(GMMs) are used to describe the conditional distribution of each moving trend. Once the models are built, machine learning algorithms are applied to obtain the optimal parameters of the model from the historical training data. After completing the learning process, the velocity vector sequence of the flight is predicted by the proposed model under the Bayesian framework, so that we can use kinematic equations, depending on the moving patterns, to calculate the flight position at every radar acquisition cycle. To obtain higher prediction accuracy, a uniform interpolation method is used to correct the predicted position each second. Finally, a plan trajectory is concatenated by the predicted discrete points. Results of simulations with collected data demonstrate that this approach not only fulfils the goals of traditional methods, such as the prediction of fly-over time and altitude of waypoints along the planned route, but also can be used to plan a complete path for an aircraft with high accuracy. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the superiority of this approach to some existing methods.