AIM: To develop a prognostic gene set that can predict patient overall survival status based on the whole genome expression analysis. METHODS: Using Illumina HumanWG-6 BeadChip followed by semi-supervised analysis, we...AIM: To develop a prognostic gene set that can predict patient overall survival status based on the whole genome expression analysis. METHODS: Using Illumina HumanWG-6 BeadChip followed by semi-supervised analysis, we analyzed the expression of 47 296 transcripts in two batches of gastric cancer patients who underwent surgical resection. Thirty-nine samples in the first batch were used as the training set to discover candidate markers correlated to overall survival, and thirty-three samples in the second batch were used for validation. RESULTS: A panel of ten genes were identified as prognostic marker in the first batch samples and classified patients into a lowand a high-risk group with significantly different survival times (P = 0.000047). This prognostic marker was then verified in an independent validation sample batch (P = 0.0009). By comparing with the traditional Tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system, this ten-gene prognostic marker showed consistent prognosis results. It was the only independent prognostic value by multivariate Cox regression analysis (P = 0.007). Interestingly, six of these ten genes are ribosomal proteins, suggesting a possible association between the deregulation of ribosome related gene expression and the poor prognosis. CONCLUSION: A ten-gene marker correlated with overall prognosis, including 6 ribosomal proteins, was identified and verified, which may complement the predictive value of TNM staging system.展开更多
AIM:To identify and assess the novel makers for detection of Shiga toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157:H7 with an integrated computational and experimental approach. METHODS:High-throughput NCBI blast (E-valu...AIM:To identify and assess the novel makers for detection of Shiga toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157:H7 with an integrated computational and experimental approach. METHODS:High-throughput NCBI blast (E-value cutoff e-5) was used to search homologous genes among all sequenced prokaryotic genomes of each gene encoded in each of the three strains of STEC O157:H7 with complete genomes,aiming to find unique genes in O157:H7 as its potential markers. To ensure that the identified markers from the three strains of STEC O157:H7 can serve as general markers for all the STEC O157:H7 strains,a genomic barcode approach was used to select the markers to minimize the possibility of choosing a marker gene as part of a transposable element. Effectiveness of the markers predicted was then validated by running polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on 18 strains of O157:H7 with 5 additional genomes used as negative controls. RESULTS:The blast search identified 20,16 and 20 genes,respectively,in the three sequenced strains of STEC O157:H7,which had no homologs in any of the other prokaryotic genomes. Three genes,wzy,Z0372 and Z0344,common to the three gene lists,were selected based on the genomic barcode approach. PCR showed an identification accuracy of 100% on the 18 tested strains and the 5 controls. CONCLUSION:The three identified novel markers,wzy,Z0372 and Z0344,are highly promising for the detection of STEC O157:H7,in complementary to the known markers.展开更多
Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a method that would facilitate immediate feedback on linear hammer speed during training. Methods: Three-dimensional hammer head positional data were me...Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a method that would facilitate immediate feedback on linear hammer speed during training. Methods: Three-dimensional hammer head positional data were measured and used to calculate linear speed (calculated speed) and cable force. These data were used to develop two linear regression models (shifted and non-shifted) that would allow prediction of hammer speed from measured cable force data (predicted speed). The accuracy of the two models was assessed by comparing the predicted and calculated speeds. Averages of the coefficient of multiple correlation (CMC) and the root mean square (RMS) of the difference between the predicted and calculated speeds for each throw of each participant were used to assess the level of accuracy of the predicted speeds. Results: Both regression models had high CMC values (0.96 and 0.97) and relatively low RMS values (1.27 m/s and 1.05 m/s) for the non-shifted and shifted models, respectively. In addition, the average percentage differences between the predicted and calculated speeds were 6.6% and 4.7% for the non-shifted and shifted models, respectively. The RMS differences between release speeds attained via the two regression models and those attained via three-dimensional positional data were also computed. The RMS differences between the predicted and calculated release speeds were 0.69 m/s and 0.46 m/s for the non-shifted and shifted models, respectively. Conclusion: This study successfully derived and validated a method that allows prediction of linear hammer speed from directly measured cable force data. Two linear regression models were developed and it was found that either model would be capable of predicting accurate speeds. However, data predicted using the shifted regression model were more accurate.展开更多
A lifetime prediction method for high-reliability tantalum (Ta) capacitors was proposed, based on multiple degradation measures and grey model (GM). For analyzing performance degradation data, a two-parameter mode...A lifetime prediction method for high-reliability tantalum (Ta) capacitors was proposed, based on multiple degradation measures and grey model (GM). For analyzing performance degradation data, a two-parameter model based on GM was developed. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the two-parameter model, parameter selection based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) was used. Then, the new PSO-GM(1, 2, co) optimization model was constructed, which was validated experimentally by conducting an accelerated testing on the Ta capacitors. The experiments were conducted at three different stress levels of 85, 120, and 145℃. The results of two experiments were used in estimating the parameters. And the reliability of the Ta capacitors was estimated at the same stress conditions of the third experiment. The results indicate that the proposed method is valid and accurate.展开更多
This article introduces the current situation of the smart then describes the relationship of meter reliability characteristics meter's reliability and the failure mechanisms at first, and combined with its Bathtub C...This article introduces the current situation of the smart then describes the relationship of meter reliability characteristics meter's reliability and the failure mechanisms at first, and combined with its Bathtub Curve. It also introduces both the feasible failure tree model for meter lifecycle prediction based on actual experiences and meter reliability prediction methodology by SN 29500 norms based on this model. This article also brings forward that it is necessary that the "Learning Factor" shall be adopted in meter reliability prediction for new materials, new process, and customized parts by referring to GJB/Z299C. Thereafter, this article also tries to apply IEC 62059 and JB/T 50070 to introduce the feasible method for the lifecycle prediction result verification by accelerated lifecycle test. Furthermore, the article also explores ways to increase the firmware reliability in smart meter.展开更多
Nowadays, forests are being managed for multiple uses. The basic requirement of multiple use forestry is to identify and quantify forest values and to determine management objectives. The priorities of management obje...Nowadays, forests are being managed for multiple uses. The basic requirement of multiple use forestry is to identify and quantify forest values and to determine management objectives. The priorities of management objectives, however, must be decided. In this study, a model predicting water production for multi-objective forest management was developed. The model was based on data from permanent sample plots. The data were gathered from 132 sample plots. Approximately 80% of the observations were used for model development and 20% for validation. The model was designed for even-aged forests, as well as for forests with mixed and pure species composition. The explicatory variable in the model was number of trees. All parameter estimates were found highly significant (P 〈 0.001) in predicting water production. The model fit and validation tests were fairly good. The water production model presented in this study was considered to have an appropriate level of reliability. planning, but, it should be limited to the conditions for which the data It can be used in the overall multi-objective forest management were gathered.展开更多
Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil's Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariat...Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil's Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariate forecasting models based on intraday data from the futures and spot markets of the BOVESPA index. The interest is to verify if there exist arbitrage opportunities in Brazilian financial market. To this end, three econometric forecasting models were built: ARFIMA, vector autoregressive (VAR), and vector error correction (VEC). Furthermore, it presents the results of a Granger causality test for the aforementioned series. This type of study shows that it is important to identify arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and, in particular, in the application of these models on data of this nature. In terms of the forecasts made with these models, VEC showed better results. The causality test shows that futures BOVESPA index Granger causes spot BOVESPA index. This result may indicate arbitrage opportunities in Brazil.展开更多
Since Libert and Quisquater's identity based signcryption scheme cannot provide public verifiability after research, the paper proposes a new identity based signcryption scheme. The scheme uses quadratic residue a...Since Libert and Quisquater's identity based signcryption scheme cannot provide public verifiability after research, the paper proposes a new identity based signcryption scheme. The scheme uses quadratic residue and pairings over elliptic curves to realize public verifiability. By analysis the scheme is proved to be more efficient than Libert and Quisquater's scheme. Moreover, a security proof of the original scheme is presented in the random oracle model.展开更多
To solve the key escrow problem of the identity-based cryptosystem, Girault introduced the notion of a self-certified public key, which not only eliminates the need to authenticate a public key but also solves the key...To solve the key escrow problem of the identity-based cryptosystem, Girault introduced the notion of a self-certified public key, which not only eliminates the need to authenticate a public key but also solves the key escrow problerrL This paper proposes a Self-Certified Signature (SCS) scheme with message recovery and two variants without using bilinear pairings: one is the authenticated encryption scheme in which only the designated re- ceiver can verify the signature, and the other is the authenticated encryption scheme with message linkage that deals with large messages. These three SCS schemes are provably secure in the random oracle model and are more efficient than previous schemes .展开更多
Some mechanistic models have been proposed to predict the No3- concentrations in the soil solution at root surface and the NO3-N uptake by plants, but all these relatively effective non-steady state models have not ye...Some mechanistic models have been proposed to predict the No3- concentrations in the soil solution at root surface and the NO3-N uptake by plants, but all these relatively effective non-steady state models have not yet been verified by any soil culture experiment. In the present study, a mathematical model based on the nutrient transport to the roots, root length and root uptake kinetics as well as taking account of the inter-root competition was used for calculation, and soil culture experiments with rice, wheat and rape plants grown on alkali, neutral and acid soils in rhizoboxes with nylon screen as a isolator were carried out to evaluate the prediction ability of the model through comparing the measured NO3-concentrations at root surface and N uptake with the calculated values. Whether the inter-root competition for nutrients was accounted for in the model was of less importance to the calculated N uptake but could induce significant changes in the relative concentrations of NO3- at root surface. For the three soils and crops, the measured NO3-N uptake agreed well with the calculated one, and the calculated relative concentrations at root surface were approximate to the measured values. But an appropriate rectification for some conditions is necessary when the plant uptake parameter obtained in solution culture experiment is applied to soil culture. In contrast with the present non-steady state model, the predicted relative concentrations, which show an accumulation, by the Phillips' steady-state model were distinct from the measured values which show a depletion, indicating that the present model has a better prediction ability than the steady-state model.展开更多
The study deals with a multi-faceted theoretical approach, symbolic, analytical and numerical, based on the chemical equilibrium assumption, addressed at predicting the performance trends of downdrafi wood-gasificatio...The study deals with a multi-faceted theoretical approach, symbolic, analytical and numerical, based on the chemical equilibrium assumption, addressed at predicting the performance trends of downdrafi wood-gasification processes so to assess the optimal ranges of input parameters, in particular the equivalence ratios, suitable to achieving the highest cold gas efficiencies whilst keeping the more the possible tar-free the produced bio-syngas. The time-steady, zero-dimensional model has been developed within MATLAB (the computing language and interactive environment from Matrix Laboratory) and solved by enforcing the constraints posed by the equilibrium constants in relation to two reactions, gas-water shift and methanation. Particular care is devoted toward verifying the real attainment of the equilibrium condition, as attested by an actual presence of products from the equilibrium reactions together with a zero difference AE between the energy flows entering and exiting the system, an issue often overlooked. With respect to other similar theoretical approaches, the numerical model, assisted by the symbolic counterpart for better interpretation and intrinsic validation of results, shows a distinct advantage in predicting rather accurately the syngas composition for varying gasification temperatures, as attested by cross comparisons with experimental data directly taken on an instrumented, dedicated, small-scale downdraft gasifier operational at DIME/SCL (the Savona Combustion Laboratory of DIME, the Dept. of Mechanical, Energy, Management and Transportation Engineering of Genova University). The behavior of cold gas efficiency clearly points out that, from an energy conversion point of view, the optimal gasification temperatures turn out comprised between 900 ℃ and 1,000 ℃: this range is indeed characterized by the highest concentrations in the energy-rich syngas components CO and H2. For higher temperatures, as induced by higher air-to-fuel ratios, the progressive oxidation of above components, together with increasing nitrogen levels, would decrease the bio-syngas heat values.展开更多
Climate change projections over the Mediterranean region have been elaborated by using the outputs of ten ENSEMBLES regional climate simulations with an horizontal resolution of 25 km under the SRES A1B emission scena...Climate change projections over the Mediterranean region have been elaborated by using the outputs of ten ENSEMBLES regional climate simulations with an horizontal resolution of 25 km under the SRES A1B emission scenario. The analysis concerns some surface atmospheric variables: mean sea level pressure, temperature, precipitation and wind speed. At first, model validations have been performed by comparing model results with E-OBS and ERA-Interim data in reproducing the last decades over some Italian sub-areas and the Alpine region. In spite of the considerable spread in the models' performances to represent the reference climate, a multi-model reconstruction has been computed and some seasonal climate change projections have been elaborated. About the mean climate changes, the more significant signals expected by 2050 are a maximum warming (about 2 ~C) and maximum drying (about 20%) in the southern Europe in summer. Moreover, the results indicate an increasing risk for some severe weather conditions: more days of extremely high temperature in summer over the whole area, a greater occurrence of flooding and storms over coasts during spring and autumn seasons and a more serious wet-snow event over Alpine region in winter. No significant signals of wind changes have been detected.展开更多
基金Supported by the National 863 Program (SQ2009AA02-XK1482570 and 2006AA02A402)Beijing Municipal Committeeof Science and Technology (D0905001040631) Beijing Capi-tal Development Foundation of Health Bureau (2007-2051)
文摘AIM: To develop a prognostic gene set that can predict patient overall survival status based on the whole genome expression analysis. METHODS: Using Illumina HumanWG-6 BeadChip followed by semi-supervised analysis, we analyzed the expression of 47 296 transcripts in two batches of gastric cancer patients who underwent surgical resection. Thirty-nine samples in the first batch were used as the training set to discover candidate markers correlated to overall survival, and thirty-three samples in the second batch were used for validation. RESULTS: A panel of ten genes were identified as prognostic marker in the first batch samples and classified patients into a lowand a high-risk group with significantly different survival times (P = 0.000047). This prognostic marker was then verified in an independent validation sample batch (P = 0.0009). By comparing with the traditional Tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system, this ten-gene prognostic marker showed consistent prognosis results. It was the only independent prognostic value by multivariate Cox regression analysis (P = 0.007). Interestingly, six of these ten genes are ribosomal proteins, suggesting a possible association between the deregulation of ribosome related gene expression and the poor prognosis. CONCLUSION: A ten-gene marker correlated with overall prognosis, including 6 ribosomal proteins, was identified and verified, which may complement the predictive value of TNM staging system.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 30872415National Science Foundation, No. DBI-0354771, ITR-IIS-0407204, DBI-0542119, CCF0621700+1 种基金National Institutes of Health, No. 1R01GM075331 and 1R01GM081682BioEnergy Science Center, US Department of Energy BioEnergy Research Center supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research in DOE Office of Science
文摘AIM:To identify and assess the novel makers for detection of Shiga toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157:H7 with an integrated computational and experimental approach. METHODS:High-throughput NCBI blast (E-value cutoff e-5) was used to search homologous genes among all sequenced prokaryotic genomes of each gene encoded in each of the three strains of STEC O157:H7 with complete genomes,aiming to find unique genes in O157:H7 as its potential markers. To ensure that the identified markers from the three strains of STEC O157:H7 can serve as general markers for all the STEC O157:H7 strains,a genomic barcode approach was used to select the markers to minimize the possibility of choosing a marker gene as part of a transposable element. Effectiveness of the markers predicted was then validated by running polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on 18 strains of O157:H7 with 5 additional genomes used as negative controls. RESULTS:The blast search identified 20,16 and 20 genes,respectively,in the three sequenced strains of STEC O157:H7,which had no homologs in any of the other prokaryotic genomes. Three genes,wzy,Z0372 and Z0344,common to the three gene lists,were selected based on the genomic barcode approach. PCR showed an identification accuracy of 100% on the 18 tested strains and the 5 controls. CONCLUSION:The three identified novel markers,wzy,Z0372 and Z0344,are highly promising for the detection of STEC O157:H7,in complementary to the known markers.
文摘Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a method that would facilitate immediate feedback on linear hammer speed during training. Methods: Three-dimensional hammer head positional data were measured and used to calculate linear speed (calculated speed) and cable force. These data were used to develop two linear regression models (shifted and non-shifted) that would allow prediction of hammer speed from measured cable force data (predicted speed). The accuracy of the two models was assessed by comparing the predicted and calculated speeds. Averages of the coefficient of multiple correlation (CMC) and the root mean square (RMS) of the difference between the predicted and calculated speeds for each throw of each participant were used to assess the level of accuracy of the predicted speeds. Results: Both regression models had high CMC values (0.96 and 0.97) and relatively low RMS values (1.27 m/s and 1.05 m/s) for the non-shifted and shifted models, respectively. In addition, the average percentage differences between the predicted and calculated speeds were 6.6% and 4.7% for the non-shifted and shifted models, respectively. The RMS differences between release speeds attained via the two regression models and those attained via three-dimensional positional data were also computed. The RMS differences between the predicted and calculated release speeds were 0.69 m/s and 0.46 m/s for the non-shifted and shifted models, respectively. Conclusion: This study successfully derived and validated a method that allows prediction of linear hammer speed from directly measured cable force data. Two linear regression models were developed and it was found that either model would be capable of predicting accurate speeds. However, data predicted using the shifted regression model were more accurate.
基金Project(Z132012) supported by the Second Five Technology-based Fund in Science and Industry Bureau of ChinaProject(1004GK0032) supported by General Armament Department for the Common Issues of Military Electronic Components,China
文摘A lifetime prediction method for high-reliability tantalum (Ta) capacitors was proposed, based on multiple degradation measures and grey model (GM). For analyzing performance degradation data, a two-parameter model based on GM was developed. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the two-parameter model, parameter selection based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) was used. Then, the new PSO-GM(1, 2, co) optimization model was constructed, which was validated experimentally by conducting an accelerated testing on the Ta capacitors. The experiments were conducted at three different stress levels of 85, 120, and 145℃. The results of two experiments were used in estimating the parameters. And the reliability of the Ta capacitors was estimated at the same stress conditions of the third experiment. The results indicate that the proposed method is valid and accurate.
文摘This article introduces the current situation of the smart then describes the relationship of meter reliability characteristics meter's reliability and the failure mechanisms at first, and combined with its Bathtub Curve. It also introduces both the feasible failure tree model for meter lifecycle prediction based on actual experiences and meter reliability prediction methodology by SN 29500 norms based on this model. This article also brings forward that it is necessary that the "Learning Factor" shall be adopted in meter reliability prediction for new materials, new process, and customized parts by referring to GJB/Z299C. Thereafter, this article also tries to apply IEC 62059 and JB/T 50070 to introduce the feasible method for the lifecycle prediction result verification by accelerated lifecycle test. Furthermore, the article also explores ways to increase the firmware reliability in smart meter.
文摘Nowadays, forests are being managed for multiple uses. The basic requirement of multiple use forestry is to identify and quantify forest values and to determine management objectives. The priorities of management objectives, however, must be decided. In this study, a model predicting water production for multi-objective forest management was developed. The model was based on data from permanent sample plots. The data were gathered from 132 sample plots. Approximately 80% of the observations were used for model development and 20% for validation. The model was designed for even-aged forests, as well as for forests with mixed and pure species composition. The explicatory variable in the model was number of trees. All parameter estimates were found highly significant (P 〈 0.001) in predicting water production. The model fit and validation tests were fairly good. The water production model presented in this study was considered to have an appropriate level of reliability. planning, but, it should be limited to the conditions for which the data It can be used in the overall multi-objective forest management were gathered.
文摘Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil's Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariate forecasting models based on intraday data from the futures and spot markets of the BOVESPA index. The interest is to verify if there exist arbitrage opportunities in Brazilian financial market. To this end, three econometric forecasting models were built: ARFIMA, vector autoregressive (VAR), and vector error correction (VEC). Furthermore, it presents the results of a Granger causality test for the aforementioned series. This type of study shows that it is important to identify arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and, in particular, in the application of these models on data of this nature. In terms of the forecasts made with these models, VEC showed better results. The causality test shows that futures BOVESPA index Granger causes spot BOVESPA index. This result may indicate arbitrage opportunities in Brazil.
文摘Since Libert and Quisquater's identity based signcryption scheme cannot provide public verifiability after research, the paper proposes a new identity based signcryption scheme. The scheme uses quadratic residue and pairings over elliptic curves to realize public verifiability. By analysis the scheme is proved to be more efficient than Libert and Quisquater's scheme. Moreover, a security proof of the original scheme is presented in the random oracle model.
基金This research was supported partially by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants No. 61103247, No. 6110209 the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province under Grant No. 2011J05147+1 种基金 the Research Foundation of Education Bureau of Fujian Province under Grant No. JBll017 the Foundation for Excellent Young Teachers of Fujian Normal University under Grant No. fjsdjk2012049.
文摘To solve the key escrow problem of the identity-based cryptosystem, Girault introduced the notion of a self-certified public key, which not only eliminates the need to authenticate a public key but also solves the key escrow problerrL This paper proposes a Self-Certified Signature (SCS) scheme with message recovery and two variants without using bilinear pairings: one is the authenticated encryption scheme in which only the designated re- ceiver can verify the signature, and the other is the authenticated encryption scheme with message linkage that deals with large messages. These three SCS schemes are provably secure in the random oracle model and are more efficient than previous schemes .
文摘Some mechanistic models have been proposed to predict the No3- concentrations in the soil solution at root surface and the NO3-N uptake by plants, but all these relatively effective non-steady state models have not yet been verified by any soil culture experiment. In the present study, a mathematical model based on the nutrient transport to the roots, root length and root uptake kinetics as well as taking account of the inter-root competition was used for calculation, and soil culture experiments with rice, wheat and rape plants grown on alkali, neutral and acid soils in rhizoboxes with nylon screen as a isolator were carried out to evaluate the prediction ability of the model through comparing the measured NO3-concentrations at root surface and N uptake with the calculated values. Whether the inter-root competition for nutrients was accounted for in the model was of less importance to the calculated N uptake but could induce significant changes in the relative concentrations of NO3- at root surface. For the three soils and crops, the measured NO3-N uptake agreed well with the calculated one, and the calculated relative concentrations at root surface were approximate to the measured values. But an appropriate rectification for some conditions is necessary when the plant uptake parameter obtained in solution culture experiment is applied to soil culture. In contrast with the present non-steady state model, the predicted relative concentrations, which show an accumulation, by the Phillips' steady-state model were distinct from the measured values which show a depletion, indicating that the present model has a better prediction ability than the steady-state model.
文摘The study deals with a multi-faceted theoretical approach, symbolic, analytical and numerical, based on the chemical equilibrium assumption, addressed at predicting the performance trends of downdrafi wood-gasification processes so to assess the optimal ranges of input parameters, in particular the equivalence ratios, suitable to achieving the highest cold gas efficiencies whilst keeping the more the possible tar-free the produced bio-syngas. The time-steady, zero-dimensional model has been developed within MATLAB (the computing language and interactive environment from Matrix Laboratory) and solved by enforcing the constraints posed by the equilibrium constants in relation to two reactions, gas-water shift and methanation. Particular care is devoted toward verifying the real attainment of the equilibrium condition, as attested by an actual presence of products from the equilibrium reactions together with a zero difference AE between the energy flows entering and exiting the system, an issue often overlooked. With respect to other similar theoretical approaches, the numerical model, assisted by the symbolic counterpart for better interpretation and intrinsic validation of results, shows a distinct advantage in predicting rather accurately the syngas composition for varying gasification temperatures, as attested by cross comparisons with experimental data directly taken on an instrumented, dedicated, small-scale downdraft gasifier operational at DIME/SCL (the Savona Combustion Laboratory of DIME, the Dept. of Mechanical, Energy, Management and Transportation Engineering of Genova University). The behavior of cold gas efficiency clearly points out that, from an energy conversion point of view, the optimal gasification temperatures turn out comprised between 900 ℃ and 1,000 ℃: this range is indeed characterized by the highest concentrations in the energy-rich syngas components CO and H2. For higher temperatures, as induced by higher air-to-fuel ratios, the progressive oxidation of above components, together with increasing nitrogen levels, would decrease the bio-syngas heat values.
文摘Climate change projections over the Mediterranean region have been elaborated by using the outputs of ten ENSEMBLES regional climate simulations with an horizontal resolution of 25 km under the SRES A1B emission scenario. The analysis concerns some surface atmospheric variables: mean sea level pressure, temperature, precipitation and wind speed. At first, model validations have been performed by comparing model results with E-OBS and ERA-Interim data in reproducing the last decades over some Italian sub-areas and the Alpine region. In spite of the considerable spread in the models' performances to represent the reference climate, a multi-model reconstruction has been computed and some seasonal climate change projections have been elaborated. About the mean climate changes, the more significant signals expected by 2050 are a maximum warming (about 2 ~C) and maximum drying (about 20%) in the southern Europe in summer. Moreover, the results indicate an increasing risk for some severe weather conditions: more days of extremely high temperature in summer over the whole area, a greater occurrence of flooding and storms over coasts during spring and autumn seasons and a more serious wet-snow event over Alpine region in winter. No significant signals of wind changes have been detected.