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登陆华南热带气旋年频数预测
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作者 张海燕 胡金磊 +2 位作者 姚小娟 赖志娟 庄桦 《海洋预报》 CSCD 北大核心 2023年第1期101-108,共8页
利用中国气象局39 a的热带气旋资料,结合多元线性回归和自回归方法,构建了一个考虑登陆华南热带气旋年频数多时间尺度特性的组合预测模型。该组合模型能较好地拟合1980—2012年登陆华南热带气旋年频数实况,拟合相关系数达0.93,平均绝对... 利用中国气象局39 a的热带气旋资料,结合多元线性回归和自回归方法,构建了一个考虑登陆华南热带气旋年频数多时间尺度特性的组合预测模型。该组合模型能较好地拟合1980—2012年登陆华南热带气旋年频数实况,拟合相关系数达0.93,平均绝对误差为0.57个,平均相对误差为12.7%。利用该模型对2013—2018年进行后报试验,平均绝对误差为0.61个,平均相对误差为12.4%。 展开更多
关键词 华南 登陆热带气旋 多时间尺度 频数预测
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基于分形方法的装备故障频数预测 被引量:1
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作者 张天文 袁山增 +1 位作者 杨济淮 何红 《火炮发射与控制学报》 北大核心 2008年第2期63-66,共4页
针对包络灰预测方法预测精度较低和Verhulst灰色预测模型计算过程复杂的情况,提出了预测装备故障频数的分形方法。在介绍有关分形理论的基础上,针对实际应用中分形维数不恒定的问题,将变维分形的概念引入到装备故障频数预测中。通过分... 针对包络灰预测方法预测精度较低和Verhulst灰色预测模型计算过程复杂的情况,提出了预测装备故障频数的分形方法。在介绍有关分形理论的基础上,针对实际应用中分形维数不恒定的问题,将变维分形的概念引入到装备故障频数预测中。通过分形变换,采用各阶累计和的方法将原始数据变换后可以用分形分布来处理,进而构建变维分形的预测模型。利用建立的模型对装备故障频数进行了预测,实例验证其预测精度达到99.78%。结果表明,该方法对装备故障频数的预测具有一定的借鉴意义。 展开更多
关键词 应用统计 分形方法 分形分布模型 装备故障 变维分形 频数预测
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一种基于本地化差分隐私保护的高效用朴素贝叶斯分类方案 被引量:2
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作者 王慧婷 陈燕俐 彭春春 《南京邮电大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2022年第3期100-112,共13页
针对现有的基于本地差分隐私的朴素贝叶斯分类方案存在计算、通信开销较高,以及采样率过低引起采样误差的问题,设计了一种满足本地差分隐私的频数预测算法,并将其应用于基于本地差分隐私的朴素贝叶斯分类器的训练。该频数预测算法的扰... 针对现有的基于本地差分隐私的朴素贝叶斯分类方案存在计算、通信开销较高,以及采样率过低引起采样误差的问题,设计了一种满足本地差分隐私的频数预测算法,并将其应用于基于本地差分隐私的朴素贝叶斯分类器的训练。该频数预测算法的扰动机制基于指数机制设计,扰动输出的概率由效用函数决定,有效地提高了数据分类的效用。方案的用户端通过该扰动机制来完成本地隐私化的工作,服务器端通过收集用户扰动数据,对频数进行预测,恢复其统计特征。相较于传统的贝叶斯分类方案,不仅能够减少训练数据在收集过程中可能带来的隐私泄露问题,提高了分类准确率,而且降低了计算和通信开销。性能分析和实验结果验证了方案的隐私性、分类准确率以及有效性。 展开更多
关键词 本地差分隐私 频数预测 朴素贝叶斯 分类
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Assimilation of High Frequency Radar Data into a Shelf Sea Circulation Model 被引量:5
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作者 XU Jiangling HUANG Juan +1 位作者 GAO Song CAO Yajing 《Journal of Ocean University of China》 SCIE CAS 2014年第4期572-578,共7页
High Frequency(HF) radar current data is assimilated into a shelf sea circulation model based on optimal interpolation(OI) method. The purpose of this work is to develop a real-time computationally highly efficient as... High Frequency(HF) radar current data is assimilated into a shelf sea circulation model based on optimal interpolation(OI) method. The purpose of this work is to develop a real-time computationally highly efficient assimilation method to improve the forecast of shelf current. Since the true state of the ocean is not known, the specification of background error covariance is arduous. Usually, it is assumed or calculated from an ensemble of model states and is kept in constant. In our method, the spatial covariances of model forecast errors are derived from differences between the adjacent model forecast fields, which serve as the forecast tendencies. The assumption behind this is that forecast errors can resemble forecast tendencies, since variances are large when fields change quickly and small when fields change slowly. The implementation of HF radar data assimilation is found to yield good information for analyses. After assimilation, the root-mean-square error of model decreases significantly. Besides, three assimilation runs with variational observation density are implemented. The comparison of them indicates that the pattern described by observations is much more important than the amount of observations. It is more useful to expand the scope of observations than to increase the spatial interval. From our tests, the spatial interval of observation can be 5 times bigger than that of model grid. 展开更多
关键词 data assimilation current radar shelf circulation model
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E^2KF Based Joint Multiple CFOs and Channel Estimate for MIMO-OFDM Systems over High Mobility Scenarios 被引量:1
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作者 QIAO Jing CHEN Qingchun SHEN Feifei 《China Communications》 SCIE CSCD 2014年第A01期56-63,共8页
An enhanced extended Kalman filtering (E2KF) algorithm is proposed in this paper to cope with the joint multiple carrier frequency offsets (CFOs) and time-variant channel estimate for MIMO-OFDM systems over high m... An enhanced extended Kalman filtering (E2KF) algorithm is proposed in this paper to cope with the joint multiple carrier frequency offsets (CFOs) and time-variant channel estimate for MIMO-OFDM systems over high mobility scenarios. It is unveiled that, the auto-regressive (AR) model not only provides an effective method to capture the dynamics of the channel parameters, which enables the prediction capability in the EKF algorithm, but also suggests an method to incorporate multiple successive pilot symbols for the improved measurement update. 展开更多
关键词 CFO channel estimate MIMO-OFDM
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Spectrum sensing sequence prediction in cognitive radio networks
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作者 An Chunyan Ji Hong +1 位作者 Si Pengbo Maoxu 《High Technology Letters》 EI CAS 2011年第4期371-376,共6页
Spectrum sensing is one of the key issues in cognitive radio networks. Most of previous work concenates on sensing the spectrum in a single spectrum band. In this paper, we propose a spectrum sensing sequence predicti... Spectrum sensing is one of the key issues in cognitive radio networks. Most of previous work concenates on sensing the spectrum in a single spectrum band. In this paper, we propose a spectrum sensing sequence prediction scheme for cognitive radio networks with multiple spectrum bands to decrease the spectrum sensing time and increase the throughput of secondary users. The scheme is based on recent advances in computational learning theory, which has shown that prediction is synonymous with data compression. A Ziv-Lempel data compression algorithm is used to design our spectrum sensing sequence prediction scheme. The spectrum band usage history is used for the prediction in our proposed scheme. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme can reduce the average sensing time and improve the system throughput significantly. 展开更多
关键词 spectrum sensing sequence prediction cognitive radio network Ziv-Lempel algorithm
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Development of an Accurate Numerical Methodology for Predicting the First Three Modes of Vibration of an Electric Motor Fixed on a Rigid Base
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作者 Vinicius Sell Gonqalves Arcanjo Lenzi 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2014年第6期1073-1084,共12页
This paper proposes a numerical methodology for the prediction of the first three modes of vibration of an electric motor fixed on a rigid base. A deep literature review supported the production of four ad hoc prototy... This paper proposes a numerical methodology for the prediction of the first three modes of vibration of an electric motor fixed on a rigid base. A deep literature review supported the production of four ad hoc prototypes that aided the development of the proposed approach. Tests carried out with the prototypes led to the procurement of the modal parameters be used to calibrate the numerical models, as well as the FRF (frequency response function) curves be used to validate the numerical solution. The validated model allowed structural changes to be then promoted on the prototypes, in order to make them more robust to variations in manufacturing and assembling processes. The mentioned adjustments and structural changes were accomplished by means of a process of structural optimization using Genetic Algorithm. The solution was developed based on the commercial finite element code ANSYS. The practical results obtained in this study show that a numerical model for modal analysis of an electric motor fixed on a rigid base with errors less than 3% for the first three modes of vibration can be achieved, allowing positive structural changes to be performed in the machine design that result in the minimization of manufacturing reworks associated with the dynamic behavior of the studied motor. 展开更多
关键词 Modal analyses numerical methodology finite element.
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