The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been desi...The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been designed in the above regions and the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) techniques are utilized to examine which approach can locate more appropriate regions for typhoon adaptive observations. The results show that, in general, the majority of the probes in the sensitive regions of CNOPs can reduce more forecast error variance than the probes in the sensitive regions of FSV. This implies that adaptive observations in the sensitive regions of CNOPs are more effective than in the sensitive regions of FSV. Furthermore, the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by the best probe identified by CNOPs is twice the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by FSV. This implies that dropping sondes, which is the best probe identified by CNOPs, can improve the forecast more than the best probe identified by FSV. These results indicate that the sensitive regions identified by CNOPs are more appropriate for adaptive observations than those identified by FSV.展开更多
Flood control forecast operation mode is one of the main ways for determining the upper bound of dynamic control of flood limited water level during flood season. The floodwater utilization rate can be effectively inc...Flood control forecast operation mode is one of the main ways for determining the upper bound of dynamic control of flood limited water level during flood season. The floodwater utilization rate can be effectively increased by using flood forecast information and flood control forecast operation mode. In this paper, Dahuofang Reservoir is selected as a case study. At first, the distribution pattern and the bound of forecast error which is a key source of risk are analyzed. Then, based on the definition of flood risk, the risk of dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level within different flood forecast error bounds is studied. The results show that, the dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level with flood forecast information can increase the floodwater utilization rate without increasing flood control risk effectively and it is feasible in practice.展开更多
Two kinds of measurement errors have been observed in the recently developed UAT-2 ultrasonic anemometer.One is the flow distortion produced by a"blocking effect",and the other is the angle of attack caused ...Two kinds of measurement errors have been observed in the recently developed UAT-2 ultrasonic anemometer.One is the flow distortion produced by a"blocking effect",and the other is the angle of attack caused by the vertical misalignment of the instrument.Here,we study these errors and discuss the possible correction methods.Via a wind tunnel experiment and numerical simulation,a 3D calibration matrix was developed to correct the"blocking effect".In the field test,the angle of attack was detected by an inclinometer settled on the reference plane of the anemometer,and the instrumental misalignment or tilt was corrected by a coordinate transformation.The combined use of an inclinometer and the proposed correction method may help find a new approach for vertical velocity correction.展开更多
基金jointly sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40830955 and 40821092)the China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. GYHY200906009)
文摘The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been designed in the above regions and the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) techniques are utilized to examine which approach can locate more appropriate regions for typhoon adaptive observations. The results show that, in general, the majority of the probes in the sensitive regions of CNOPs can reduce more forecast error variance than the probes in the sensitive regions of FSV. This implies that adaptive observations in the sensitive regions of CNOPs are more effective than in the sensitive regions of FSV. Furthermore, the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by the best probe identified by CNOPs is twice the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by FSV. This implies that dropping sondes, which is the best probe identified by CNOPs, can improve the forecast more than the best probe identified by FSV. These results indicate that the sensitive regions identified by CNOPs are more appropriate for adaptive observations than those identified by FSV.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51079015, 50979011)
文摘Flood control forecast operation mode is one of the main ways for determining the upper bound of dynamic control of flood limited water level during flood season. The floodwater utilization rate can be effectively increased by using flood forecast information and flood control forecast operation mode. In this paper, Dahuofang Reservoir is selected as a case study. At first, the distribution pattern and the bound of forecast error which is a key source of risk are analyzed. Then, based on the definition of flood risk, the risk of dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level within different flood forecast error bounds is studied. The results show that, the dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level with flood forecast information can increase the floodwater utilization rate without increasing flood control risk effectively and it is feasible in practice.
基金The National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2010CB951804)The Strategy Guide for the Specific Task of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA10010403)+2 种基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41375018)Special finance from the China Meteorological Administration(Grant No.GYHY200706034)The National Science and Technology Pillar Program(Grant No.2008BAC37B02)
文摘Two kinds of measurement errors have been observed in the recently developed UAT-2 ultrasonic anemometer.One is the flow distortion produced by a"blocking effect",and the other is the angle of attack caused by the vertical misalignment of the instrument.Here,we study these errors and discuss the possible correction methods.Via a wind tunnel experiment and numerical simulation,a 3D calibration matrix was developed to correct the"blocking effect".In the field test,the angle of attack was detected by an inclinometer settled on the reference plane of the anemometer,and the instrumental misalignment or tilt was corrected by a coordinate transformation.The combined use of an inclinometer and the proposed correction method may help find a new approach for vertical velocity correction.