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基于数值模拟的台风危险性分析综述(Ⅱ)——随机抽样模拟与极值风速预测 被引量:13
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作者 段忠东 肖玉凤 +1 位作者 肖仪清 欧进萍 《自然灾害学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2012年第2期1-8,共8页
台风危险性分析是台风损失估计及防灾减灾的基础。对基于数值模拟的台风危险性分析所采用的随机台风概率模型、随机抽样模拟方法和极值风速预测进行了回顾与评述,包括台风关键参数概率模型及其相关性、台风路径模型、台风登陆衰减和海... 台风危险性分析是台风损失估计及防灾减灾的基础。对基于数值模拟的台风危险性分析所采用的随机台风概率模型、随机抽样模拟方法和极值风速预测进行了回顾与评述,包括台风关键参数概率模型及其相关性、台风路径模型、台风登陆衰减和海陆风速转换模型以及台风极值风速概率模型,并针对我国东南沿海地区台风危险性分析数值模拟采用的相关模型给出了相关建议。 展开更多
关键词 风危险性分析 关键参数概率模型 路径模型 衰减模型 极值速分布
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Cumulative Coulomb Failure Stress Change in the Basin- range Region of West Beijing and Its Effect on Strong Earthquakes
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作者 Chen Dan Hao Ping 《Earthquake Research in China》 CSCD 2016年第4期513-525,共13页
Since 231 B. C.,a total of 15 M6.0 - 7.5 earthquakes have been recorded in the west Beijing basin-range tectonic region( 38.3°- 41.5° E,112°- 116.2° N),a region mainly under the action of tensional... Since 231 B. C.,a total of 15 M6.0 - 7.5 earthquakes have been recorded in the west Beijing basin-range tectonic region( 38.3°- 41.5° E,112°- 116.2° N),a region mainly under the action of tensional normal faulting. In this paper,we calculate the Coulomb stress change of each earthquake and the cumulative Coulomb stress change,and on this basis we analyze the stress triggering of strong earthquakes. The research shows that there are 10 of 14 earthquakes that occurred in the trigger zones,in which the Coulomb stress change is positive,and the trigger rate is 71%. The positive areas of cumulative Coulomb stress change caused by these 15 earthquakes are: middle of northern Liulengshan fault,Northern Huaizhuo basin fault,Xinbaoan-Shacheng fault,Sangganhe fault and Southern Yuxian basin fault. This necessarily increases the seismic risk of these faults and can be used as a reference for future seismic risk analysis in this area. 展开更多
关键词 West Beijing basin-range tectonic region Cumulative Coulomb stress change Seismic risk
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Analysis on Earthquake Emergency Material Preparation Demand Based on Earthquake Risk Evaluation Taking Datong City of Shanxi Province as an Example
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作者 Yang Bin Ma Zhaohui Hao Zhiyong 《International Journal of Technology Management》 2014年第3期40-43,共4页
The earthqnake emergency material preparation demand analysis can provide the scientific basis for all levels of governments to conduct reasonable and unified configuration of the emergency preparation resources, in o... The earthqnake emergency material preparation demand analysis can provide the scientific basis for all levels of governments to conduct reasonable and unified configuration of the emergency preparation resources, in order to further optimize the earthquake emergency ability construction to provide reference. This paper takes Datong City of Shanxi Province as an example, using the earthquake risk evaluation method, adopting the deterministic method and probabilistic method to conduct earthquake danger analysis, combined with the earthquake emergency rescue case and the previous scholars' research achievements, in order to study and analyze the earthquake emergency material preparation demand in different earthquake dangers. 展开更多
关键词 earthquake: risk evaluation: emergency material preparation demand
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