海南岛天然橡胶风害评估系统研究

针对海南岛天然橡胶风害评估存在的问题,将长时间序列的数值天气预报数据,高精度、低时空分辨率的自动气象站数据应用到橡胶风害的评估中,为橡胶灾害的灾前预评估、灾后评估提供及时有效的信息源;以可拓方法为理论基础,从孕灾环境、承灾体、致灾因子等方面确定天然橡胶风害评估的影响因子,选择气象综合因子、橡胶因子和综合地形因子,建立橡胶风害评估模型,并基于ArcGIS平台开发天然橡胶风害实时评估系统,实现天然橡胶的灾前预估和灾后评估。该系统的应用将极大地提高天然橡胶风害防灾减灾的决策能力。

沿海地区森林风害研究综述

从导致森林风害的因素、风害对沿海森林生态系统的影响、风害评估方法、降低森林风害的经营管理措施等方面,综述了风害与沿海森林生态系统关系的研究成果和不足。我国未来应加强在不同尺度下沿海森林结构与功能关系、局域和区域尺度下各类生物/非生物因素与森林风害的关系以及森林风害预测评估模型的构建等3方面的研究。

Technology Research on Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation of a Cable Car

According to structure function and lightning damage of a cable car, a feasible method of lightning strike risk evaluation for a cable car was put forward based on the evaluation model and evaluation method in the standard IEC62305-2. According to the difference between common buildings and cable cars, problems of height non-uniformity of equivalent section caused by inclination of the cable car and diversity of lightning activity regularity caused by the large area were resolved, and expected annual average frequency of lightning strike was calculated using three dimensional graphic approach and regional lightning characteristic analysis. Based on different types of damage process and loss consequences, according to interception effect against lightning invasion of the lightning protection measures and the method of probability selection proposed in the standard, the probability of casu- alty caused by direct lightning strike in a cable car and a waiting area as well as probabilities of casualty caused by failure of electronic information systems were cal- culated.

Value evaluation of ecological risk of marine chemical spills

The environmental risk of chemical spills near coastal zones threatens abundant marine ecological resources. By appraising the ecological damage value of the environmental risk of marine chemical spills, we can facilitate decision-making for the development of a coastal zone and establishment of economic policy on coastal zone management. In this study, the ecological effect of the environmental risk of a chemical spill in the Haicang chemical industrial park in Xiamen was identified, after which its impact was forecasted and its ecological damage value was assessed. The information generated in this study will be useful in future studies evaluating marine ecological compensation based on environmental risk analysis.

Risk Assessment of Disaster Chain: Experience from Wenchuan Earthquake-induced Landslides in China

This paper deals with the formative process of the Wenchuan earthquake disaster chain risk. Selected earthquake-landslides chain risk is critically evaluated by the probability of landslide displacement failure based on the Newmark's permanent-deformation model. In this context, a conceptual model of regional disaster chain risk assessment was proposed, in which the hazardformative environments sensitivity was the core factor as well as the main difference compared with single disaster risk assessment. The disaster chain risk is accumulation of primary disaster risk and the secondary disasters risks. Results derived from the Wenchuan case proved that the conceptual model was suitable for the disaster chain risk assessment, especially the sudden disaster chain. This experience would offer greater potential in application of conceptual model of disaster chain risk assessment, in the process of large-scale disaster risk governance.

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE ASSESSMENT OF METHODS FOR DISASTER-INDUCING RISKS BY TCs USING SAMPLE EVENTS OF TCs THAT AFFECTED SHANGHAI

Hazard factors, hazard-bearling objects, disaster-developing environment, and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone （TC） disasters. Of all of these, the most important is the intensity of hazard factors （risk sources）. In this study, this intensity is uniformly defined by the probability of hazard factors; then a relationship is established between disaster risk intensity and hazard factors. The exceedance probability of various hazard factors, including frequency and timing, scope of wind and rain, and maximum wind and rain of impacting TC cases, are calculated using data from TCs that impacted Shanghai fi＇om 1959-2006. The relationship between disaster situation and risk probability of hazard factors is analyzed, and the indices and model of TC disaster assessment are established based on the results. The process maximum wind speed and maximum daily precipitation are very important in TC-related disaster formation in Shanghai. The results of disaster indices coordinate with the results of the assessment model, and both can show the extent of probability of a TC disaster. Tests using TC data in 2007 and 2008 show that disasters caused by TC Krosa （0716） would be more serious than those by TC Wipha （0713）, and that TC Fung Wong （0808） would have a weak impact. Real-life situations validate these results.

Risk Assessment of Secondary Geological Disasters Induced by the Yushu Earthquake

The Yushu Ms 7.1 earthquake occurred on April 14,2010 in Qinghai Province,China.It induced a mass of secondary geological disasters,such as collapses,landslides,and debris flows.Risk assessment maps are important for geological disaster prevention and mitigation,and also can serve as a guide for post-earthquake reconstruction.Firstly,a hazard assessment index system of secondary geological disasters in the earthquake region was built in this paper,which was based on detailed analysis of environmental and triggering factors closely related to geological disasters in the study area.GIS technology was utilized to extract and analyze the assessment index.Hazard assessment maps of secondary geological disasters were obtained by spatial modeling and overlaying analysis.Secondly,an analysis of the vulnerability of hazard bearing bodies in the area was conducted,important information,such as, population density,percentage of arable land, industrial and agricultural outputs per unit area were regarded as assessment indices to evaluate socioeconomic vulnerability.Thirdly,the risk level of secondary geological disasters of the area was obtained by the formula:Risk=Hazard×Vulnerability. Risk assessment maps were categorized into four levels,including"low","moderate","high"and"very high".These results show that some urban areas are at very high risk,including Jiegu,Chengwen,Xiaxiula and Sahuteng towns.This research can provide some references and suggestions to improve decisionmaking support for emergency relief and post- earthquake reconstruction in the study area.

Building Vulnerability Evaluation in Landslide Deformation Phase

Building vulnerability evaluation is important in the risk assessment on earthquake and flood hazards. But for landslide hazard, it is also a very important part for the people in buildings. Most discussions or researches about building vulnerability are for landslide failure, few for landslide in deformation phase. For this objective, this paper discussed about building vulnerability evaluation using Zhaoshuling landslide as an example Zhaoshuling landslide named located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China. After a field survey on the geological condition of landslide, detailed field investigation on the buildings' location and structure is carried out. To get landslide surface deformation, numerical simulation method is used under the combining condition of water fluctuation and rainfall. Then building deformation and probable damage degree is analyzed according to landslide surface deformation and the relative theory in mining. Based on the national standard building damage classification system, the vulnerability of all the buildings on the landslide is semi-quantitatively evaluated.

Flood Vulnerability Assessment： A Multiscale, Multitemporal and Multidisciplinary Approach

Recent catastrophic events related to floods in Colombia reveal again the situation of disaster as a development issue not solved in the country. It is necessary to analyze in more detail the areas under threat and their respective vulnerability to the different mechanisms can generate flooding events and make adjustments in the assessment of disaster risks for the appropriate decision-making at local, regional and national levels. This paper presents a research project in its first phase, whose main objective is to develop a methodology for vulnerability assessment from a multiscale, multitemporal and multidisciplinary perspectives, combining the use of indicators and a spatial information system to analyze exposure and vulnerability at regional and local level in specific areas. This methodological tool will also enable local and regional authorities to identify the most appropriate strategies to reduce vulnerability and adaptation options, and make better decisions in assessing disaster risk. The information generated in this study will contribute to public policy action structured to correct short- and medium-term situations of actual or potential vulnerability, which can also be used in other activities of territorial and environmental planning, developing technology transfer activities and training associated with the research project in the service of the authorities and communities. Results obtained of the vulnerability analysis for a Colombian study area will relate to the hazards obtained in a parallel project whose goal is to identify the best risk management strategies through the development of GIS （geographic information system）-based scenarios for different risk and vulnerability reduction options.

Hazard and population vulnerability analysis: a step towards landslide risk assessment

In this paper, an attempt to analyse landslide hazard and vulnerability in the municipality of Pahuatlfin, Puebla, Mexico, is presented. In order to estimate landslide hazard, the susceptibility, magnitude （area-velocity ratio） and landslide frequency of the area of interest were produced based on information derived from a geomorphological landslide inventory; the latter was generated by using very high resolution satellite stereo pairs along with information derived from other sources （Google Earth, aerial photographs and historical information）. Estimations of landslide susceptibility were determined by combining four statistical techniques： （i） logistic regression, （ii） quadratic discriminant analysis, （iii） linear discriminant analysis, and （iv） neuronal networks. A Digital Elevation Model （DEM） of lo m spatial resolution was used to extract the slope angle, aspect, curvature, elevation and relief. These factors, in addition to land cover, lithology anddistance to faults, were used as explanatory variables for the susceptibility models. Additionally, a Poisson model was used to estimate landslide temporal frequency, at the same time as landslide magnitude was obtained by using the relationship between landslide area and the velocity of movements. Then, due to the complexity of evaluating it, vulnerability of population was analysed by applying the Spatial Approach to Vulnerability Assessment （SAVE） model which considered levels of exposure, sensitivity and lack of resilience. Results were expressed on maps on which different spatial patterns of levels of landslide hazard and vulnerability were found for the inhabited areas. It is noteworthy that the lack of optimal methodologies to estimate and quantify vulnerability is more notorious than that of hazard assessments. Consequently, levels of uncertainty linked to landslide risk assessment remain a challenge to be addressed.

Forecast Method of Multimode System for Debris Flow Risk Assessment in Qingping Town,Sichuan Province,China

The Wenchuan Earthquake of May 12,2008 triggered large numbers of geo-hazards.The heavy rain on 13 August 2010 triggered debris flows with total volume of more than 6 million cubic meters and the debris flows destroyed 500 houses and infrastructure built after the Wenchuan Earthquake.The study area Qingping Town was located in the northwestern part of the Sichuan Basin of China,which needs the second reconstructions and the critical evaluation of debris flow.This study takes basin as the study unit and defines collapse,landslide and debris flow hazard as a geo-hazard system.A multimode system composed of principal series system and secondary parallel system were established to evaluate the hazard grade of debris flow in 138 drainage basins of Qingping Town.The evaluation result shows that 30.43% of study basins(42 basins) and 24.58% of study area,are in extremely high or high hazard grades,and both percentage of basin quantity and percentage of area in different hazard grades decrease with the increase of hazard grade.According to the geo-hazard data from the interpretation of unmanned plane image with a 0.5-m resolution and field investigation after the Wenchuan Earthquake and 8.13 Big Debris Flow,the ratio of landslides and collapses increased after the Wenchuan Earthquake and the ratios of extremely high or high hazard grades were more than moderate or low hazard grades obviously.23 geo-hazards after8.13 Big Debris Flow in Qingping town region all occurred in basins with extremely high or high hazard grades,and 9 debris flows were in basins with extremely high hazard grade.The model of multimode system for critical evaluation could forecast not only the collapse and landslide but also the debris flow precisely when the basin was taken as the study unit.

Effects of High-temperature Damage on Rice Growth and Its Countermeasures

This study introduced the effects of high-temperature damage on rice and reviewed the damage mechanism, heat damage index and risk assessment, forewarning and monitoring. On the basis of extensive studies, this paper put forward the viewpoints of ascertaining the fundamental mechanism of high temperature damage to rice at the molecular level, establishing a comprehensive heat damage index taking variety, growth stage and other meteorological factors into consideration, selecting appropriate sowing time, choosing heat-resistant varieties and improving the prevention system. All of these are aimed at providing a solid foundation for coping avoiding the harms from heat damage and improving the coping method.

Developing a risk assessment system for gas tunnel disasters in China

Gas disasters always restrict the tunnel constructions in mountain area, which becomes a major geological barrier against the development of underground engineering. China is rich in coal resources and has a large amount of gas with a wide range of distribution. However, China experienced not only adverse effects on coal mining but also gas disasters in underground engineering construction, such as tunnels and chambers. With the increased number of tunnels passing through coal-bearing strata, the incidence of gas accidents is also rising. Therefore, the significance of preventing and mitigating gas disasters should be emphasized, and an effective risk assessment method for gas disasters should be established. On the basis of research on over 100 gas tunnels in China, a relatively ideal gas disaster risk assessment method and system for tunnels are established through the following measures. Firstly, geo-environmental conditions and gas situations were analyzed during construction. Secondly, qualitative analysis was combined with quantitative analysis. Finally, the influencing factors of gas disasters, including geological conditions, gas,and human factors, were investigated. The gas tunnel risk assessment system includes three levels:(1) the grading assessment of a gas tunnel during the planning stage,(2) the risk assessment of gas tunnel construction during the design and construction stages,(3) the gas tunnel outburst risk assessment during the coal uncovering stage. This system was applied to the dynamic assessment of gas disaster during the construction of the Zipingpu tunnel of Dujiangyan–Wenchuan Highway(in Sichuan, Southwest China). The assessment results were consistent with the actual excavation, which verified the rationality and feasibility of the system. The developed system was believed to be back-up and applied for risk assessment of gas disaster in the underground engineering construction.

System Development for Storm Surge Hazard Assessment Based on WebG IS for Tianjin Binhai New Area

It is imperative to develop a risk assessment system for quickly predicting storm surge disaster due to the vulnerability of Tianjin Binhai New Area. The flood routing model with user-defined breaches was firstly estab- lished based on the seed spread algorithm in order to achieve a rapid forecasting of storm surge flood information. Furthermore, fuzzy mathematics was utilized to identify the storm disaster grade, and the hazard mapping was con- ducted to visually obtain the hazard spatial and temporal distribution. Finally, the flood routing visuaUzation method was proposed based on numerical simulation of storm surge to achieve the reappearance scene of dynamic evolution process. The developed system can play a vital role in the management and decision-making of sea dyke mitigation engineering in Tianjin Binhai New Area.

Research Overview of Chinese Agricultural Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment

This paper summarized the key concepts, evaluation principle and meth-ods of the agricultural meteorological disaster risk, then reviewed the research progress of main agricultural meteorological disaster risk assessment. The aim is to provide the reference of the system theory and method of agricultural meteorological disaster risk assessment.

Measuring Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,China

Social vulnerability in this study represents the differences between the capacity to cope with natural hazards and disaster losses suffered within and between places.The assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step in understanding natural hazard risks and enhancing effective response capabilities.This article presents an initial study of the social vulnerability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(B-T-H) Region in China.The goal is to replicate and test the applicability of the United States Social Vulnerability Index(So VI) method in a Chinese cultural context.Thirty-nine variables adapted from the So VI were collected in relation to two aspects:socioeconomic vulnerability and built environment vulnerability.Using factor analysis,seven factors were extracted from the variable set:the structure of social development,the level of economic and government financial strength,social justice and poverty,family structure,the intensity of space development,the status of residential housing and transportation,and building structure.Factor scores were summed to get the final So VI scores and the most and least vulnerable units were identified and mapped.The highest social vulnerability is concentrated in the northwest of the study area.The least socially vulnerable areas are mainly distributed in the Beijing,Tianjin and Shijiazhuang core urban peripheral and central city areas of the prefecture-level cities.The results show that this method is a useful tool for revealing places that have a high level of vulnerability,in other words,areas which are more likely to face significant challenges in coping with a large-scale event.These findings could provide a scientific basis for policy making and the implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China.

Risk Assessment and Zoning of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Heilongjiang Province

In this study,we first zoned the drought degree in the years from 1971 to 2000 in Heilongjiang Province by using precipitation anomaly equation as an indicator,and analyzed the temporal distribution characteristics and laws of arid disaster in different periods.Using the method of human being habitat risk assessment,we further studied and zoned the drought disaster risk index(DDRI)of maize cultivated in 74 stations in Heilongjiang Province via GIS software.The results showed that(1)the occurrence frequency of moderate and heavy drought in Heilongjiang Province was 1970s>1990s>1980s,and(2)the high risk area of drought disaster for maize production mainly assembled in Qiqihar and Daqing regions in west Heilongjiang Province,where agricultural drought should be highly concerned,while low risk and slight risk areas mainly distribute in middle areas and east plain areas in Heilongjiang Province.Our study provided basis for the defense of agricultural drought disaster.

The risk assessment of disasters induced by typhoons in Shandong province based on historical data during 1985-2010

In the present paper,the risk assessment of disasters induced by typhoons in Shandong Province has been carried out based on the basis of the analyses of the historical data during 1985-2010.In order to reduce the impact of the social and economic development status on the evaluation results in various periods,the normalized evaluation method was used to analyze the annual typhoon-induced damage in the concerned period.The quantitative comprehensive index is proposed with fuzzy mathematics,and the effect of typhoon-induced disasters is systematically investigated with the proposed index.In the analyses of the various hazard factors,the damage induced by the typhoon is combined with human and social factors,and further is comprehensively analyzed based on a GIS platform.The assessment results indicate that the normalized damage induced by typhoons presents the downward trend year by year and regional differences with significant temporal-spatial characteristics.The results of the present study are expected to be beneficial to disaster prevention and mitigation in Shandong Province.

Risk Assessment and Optimisation of Blast Mitigation Strategies for Design and Strengthening of Built Infrastructure

A probabilistic risk assessment procedure is developed which can predict risks of explosive blast damage to built infrastructure, and when combined with life-cycle cost analysis, the procedure can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies. The paper focuses on window glazing since this is a load-capacity system which, when subjected to blast loading, has caused significant damage and injury to building occupants. Structural reliability techniques are used to derive blast reliability curves for annealed and toughened glazing subjected to explosive blast for a variety of threat scenarios. The probabilistic analyses include the uncertainties associated with blast modelling, glazing response and glazing failure criteria. Damage risks are calculated for an individual window and for windows in the facade of a multi-storey commercial building. The paper shows an illustrative example of how this information, when combined with risk-based decision-making criteria, can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies.

基于Landsat和Sentinel-2时间序列影像的海南西部橡胶林龙卷风灾情评估

风害是影响中国天然橡胶产业发展最严重的自然灾害之一,它短时间内对橡胶林造成严重的物理伤害(大量落叶、枝条和主干折断等),严重影响后期生长和产量。传统地面调查虽然精度高,但耗时费力、经济成本高,利用遥感快速评估对指导灾后生产恢复、保险赔付和科学研究等具有重要意义。本研究以2019年8月1912号热带风暴"杨柳"在海南西部诱发的龙卷风为例,从影像数据覆盖的时效性、合成方法和灾害评估指标筛选等角度出发,探讨了联合Landsat 7/8和Sentinel-2时间序列遥感影像和影像差异法评估橡胶林风害损失的潜力。结果表明:(1)无云的Landsat 7/8和Sentinel-2影像在灾害发生前后的20 d内能对90%以上的研究区域实现至少一次覆盖,30 d内基本实现完全覆盖,像元尺度平均覆盖3次,60 d平均覆盖6次;(2)风灾前采用最大值合成,灾后采用中值法合成,获得的影像差异显著且监测指标最为稳定;(3)在时间窗口方面,灾害前后40 d窗口内合成影像的监测效果趋于稳定,与90 d窗口合成影像的结果差异不明显,保守的建议采用灾害前后60 d窗口内的影像进行风灾监测;(4)受损橡胶林风灾前后EVI数值变化最大,40 d窗口之后平均下降超过0.5,NBR次之,其后是LSWI、NDVI、近红外(NIR)和短波红外(SWIR1和SWIR2)波段。从变化的百分比值看,风灾后LSWI和SWIR2的变化幅度最高,降幅超过120%,明显高于NBR、EVI、NIR和SWIR1。相比之下,LSWI的空间变异(60 d合成时标准差约27%)明显低于SWIR2(60 d合成标准差约83%);(5)此次龙卷风造成海南西部约645公顷的橡胶林报废,作为30年经济寿命周期的作物,损失非常严重。本研究展示了联合Landsat和Sentinel-2监测橡胶林风害损失的巨大潜力,为今后橡胶林和其他作物的台风灾害及时监测提供了重要的方法参考。