天津沿海三次特大风暴潮灾成因分析及预防对策

本文分析了天津沿海三次（８５０９、９２１６和 ９７１１）特大风暴潮灾的天气形势及风暴增水特点，讨论了潮灾的成因，并就其预防对策进行了探讨。

清代福建风暴潮灾害与防治

因地理环境影响,清代的福建省尤其台湾岛是海洋风暴潮灾的多发区。面对频繁发生的海洋风暴潮灾,福建人民为抗击灾害而共同努力着：创办义仓,修筑长堤以备灾;地方官员在临灾抢救,在朝廷赋予自助支配官银赈灾的权力下迅速展赈济灾;由地方士绅耆老倡捐银粮以赈灾民等。通过对这些赈灾措施的考察,以希能为我们今天抗击风暴潮灾的社会应对提供借鉴和帮助。

明代沿海地区的风暴潮灾与国家应对机制

沿海地区的风暴潮灾是明代主要的自然灾害之一。明代国家应对风暴潮灾的措施主要有赈济灾区,蠲免田租、税粮及盐课,修筑海塘堤堰,祭祀神灵等。明前期国家荒政的执行较为有力,但中后期则逐渐废弛。在明代防灾救灾的过程中,地方社会中的宗族与士绅力量起到了重大的作用。

山东风暴潮灾及减灾对策

山东省是我国对外开放的主要沿海省份。地处我国东部经济地带,濒临黄、渤海。区域自然资源丰富,自然环境条件得天独厚,是我国农、牧、水产的重点产区,也是全国四大海盐产地之一,煤、铁、金、铝、金刚石、石油及天然气等工矿建材资源、产品居全国重要位置,还是我国三大河流三角洲之一的黄河三角洲所在地,拥有着正在增长并待开发的丰富土地资源,海岸线、滩涂、港湾、浅海、岛屿多种海洋空间,生物资源。

中世纪晚期泰晤士河口地区风暴潮灾及社会应对

泰晤士河口地区以伦敦为中心,是英格兰重要的对外窗口与城市勃兴之地。中世纪晚期泰晤士河口地区遭受了频繁且严重的海洋风暴潮,由于该地区人口密度较大、经济发达,受风暴潮带来的破坏也更为严峻。面对灾害,地方和中央建立起基本的灾害应对机制,庄园组织承担修复堤坝与排水义务,中央则通过设置委员会的方式监督引导地方开展维护工作。同时,人们并未对风暴潮的发生产生科学的认识,而是将之视为上帝的惩罚以及女巫的恶行。

灰色系统灾变预报方法在风暴潮预报中的应用

本文把灰色系统灾变预报方法应用到风暴潮预报中 ,对逐年最大风暴潮增水资料确定一个阈值 ζ ,对于年最大风暴潮位资料大于阈值 ζ的年份组成一个序列 ,用一阶线性模型GM (1 ,1 )预报风暴潮灾的出现年份 .结果表明 :用GM (1 ,1 )

海岸带信息管理系统与风暴潮预警子系统开发

使用GISI具软件MapInfo的二次开发语言MapBasic及可视化开发语言Delphi，初步完成了江苏省海岸带信息管理系统及风暴潮预警子系统的开发。结果表明：（1）研制的风暴潮预警系统有较好的可操作性；（2）应用GIS技术与风暴潮数值预报等应用模型相结合是实现风暴潮预警的有效手段。

1992年特大风暴潮监测预报座谈会在京举行

1992年8月28日至9月1日,受第16号强热带风暴和天文大潮的综合作用,我国东部沿海发生了1949年以来影响范围最广、损失最严重的一次风暴潮灾。潮灾先后波及福建、浙江、上海、江苏、山东、天津、河北、辽宁等省(市)。受灾地区各级政府和防潮指挥部门得到各级预报部门的风暴潮、巨浪、大风、暴雨的预报后,立即组织防潮抢险救灾,大大减轻了潮灾可能造成的损失和人员伤亡。但是,风暴潮、巨浪、大风,大雨的综合影响。

如何面对灾难

从人类第一次在丛林中直起腰来行走,灾难就伴随而来。如何应对灾难,把灾难的损失减少到最低限度,是人类应该研究的问题。就我们每个人而言,当灾难突然降临时,如何自救、救人,心里应该有数。无知是最大的灾难1993年2月14日,唐山林西百货大楼。

厄尼诺对人类社会的影响

厄尼诺事件可引起全球气候异常及各种海洋——气象灾害。九十年代以来 ,前期连续发生三次厄尼诺事件 ,1997～ 1998年更发生了一百多年来最强的一次厄尼诺事件。这种异常的厄尼诺形势必将影响到九十年代更为频繁而严重的自然灾害。据 194 9- 1991年历史资料统计 ,厄尼诺年的当年或次年夏季 ,西北太平洋的年台风发生总数为低值谷年 ,江淮流域则是洪涝年。九十年代前期 ,台风发生总数连续出现三个低值谷年 ,1998年只有极少的 13个台风发生 ,平最低历史记录。同时江淮流域在九十年代前期也对应出现三次大洪涝年 ,1998年夏季更发生了罕见的特大洪涝灾害。在 2 0世纪每隔 2 0年左右 ,都会出现一个全世界特大风暴潮灾的集中重现期 ,包括 1- 3次特大潮灾。而在九十年代前期短短 5- 6年中 ,竟意外地发生了 5次特大风暴潮灾。这不能不说与九十年代前期异常的厄尼诺形势密切有关。本文还对厄尼诺影响的机制 ,提出了结论性的看法。

海洋技术中的GIS应用

使用GIS工具软件MapInfo的二次开发语言MapBasic及可视化开发语言Delphi,初步完成了江苏省海岸带信息管理系统及风暴潮预警子系统的开发。结果表明 :1)研制的风暴潮预警系统有较好的可操作性 ;2 )GIS技术是海洋信息技术服务的有效手段。

综合大学理科研究生教育如何为经济服务

综合大学的理科研究生教育如何为经济建设服务,根据我校的实践,有如下几方面.一、发挥综合性大学学科门类齐全、科研条件先进的优势,积极开展应用性基础研究,解决生产实际中急需解决的基础性课题.如我校物理化学重点学科,它处于固体表面物理化学学科研究前沿,在解决与化工、能源、材料和环保等关系极为密切的重大科学技术问题方面有极为有利的条件和优势.

A Storm Surge Intensity Classification Based on Extreme Water Level and Concomitant Wave Height

Storm surge is one of the predominant natural threats to coastal communities. Qingdao is located on the southern coast of the Shandong Peninsula in China. The storm surge disaster in Qingdao depends on various influencing factors such as the intensity, duration, and route of the passing typhoon, and thus a comprehensive understanding of natural coastal hazards is essential. In order to make up the defects of merely using the warning water level, this paper presents two statistical distribution models(Poisson Bi- variable Gumbel Logistic Distribution and Poisson Bi-variable Log-normal Distribution) to classify the intensity of storm surge. We emphasize the joint return period of typhoon-induced water levels and wave heights measured in the coastal area of Qingdao since 1949. The present study establishes a new criterion to classify the intensity grade of catastrophic storms using the typhoon surge estimated by the two models. A case study demonstrates that the new criterion is well defined in terms of probability concept, is easy to implement, and fits well the calculation of storm surge intensity. The procedures with the proposed statistical models would be useful for the disaster mitigation in other coastal areas influenced by typhoons.

Storm surge disaster evaluation model based on an artificial neural network

Back propagation is employed to forecast the current of a storm with various characteristics of storm surge; the technique is thus important in disaster forecasting. One of the most fuzzy types of information in the prediction of geological calamity is handled employing the information diffusion method. First, a single-step prediction model and neural network prediction model are employed to collect influential information used to predict the extreme tide level. Second, information is obtained using the information diffusion method, which improves the precision of risk recognition when there is insufficient information. Experiments demonstrate that the method proposed in this paper is simple and effective and provides better forecast results than other methods. Future work will focus on a more precise forecast model.

System Development for Storm Surge Hazard Assessment Based on WebG IS for Tianjin Binhai New Area

It is imperative to develop a risk assessment system for quickly predicting storm surge disaster due to the vulnerability of Tianjin Binhai New Area. The flood routing model with user-defined breaches was firstly estab- lished based on the seed spread algorithm in order to achieve a rapid forecasting of storm surge flood information. Furthermore, fuzzy mathematics was utilized to identify the storm disaster grade, and the hazard mapping was con- ducted to visually obtain the hazard spatial and temporal distribution. Finally, the flood routing visuaUzation method was proposed based on numerical simulation of storm surge to achieve the reappearance scene of dynamic evolution process. The developed system can play a vital role in the management and decision-making of sea dyke mitigation engineering in Tianjin Binhai New Area.

3D Simulation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Scenario Analysis

The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario(floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite effects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ω and k-ε models in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ω model coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity(100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.

Google Earth-based dynamic visualization system for storm surge flood routing

To describe the dynamic process of flood routing intuitively and realistically when storm surge disaster occurs,a method for ArcGIS data and Google Earth(GE) data integration is proposed,which realizes the importing and integrating of basic geographic information into GE. Based on SketchUp and AutoCAD software,threedimension(3D) visualization of seawall and other tidal defense structures is achieved. By employing Microsoft Foundation Class Library(MFC),the related system modules and storm surge flood routing dynamic visualization system are developed. Therefore,dynamic visualization of flood routing process and interactive query of submerged area and inundated depth are implemented. A practical application case study of Tianjin Binhai New Area provides decision-making support for coastal seawall planning and storm surge disaster prevention and reduction.

A study of cooperation processes in multi-agent systems of storm surge disaster

Collaborative governance mechanism is a public management process that emphasizes the establishment of trust relationship between various subjects within the government and between multiple subjects such as the government and non-government based on the needs of the interest community,so as to achieve the advantages of collaborative governance.It is an important measure to improve the national storm surge disaster management system and realize the modernization of disaster management capacity.It is also the trend of the government to improve public management.Based on the results of relevant national bulletins,the storm surge disaster is selected which is the most characteristic of Marine disasters in the scope of marine public management.We select Zhejiang Province as the research area,which is heavily affected by storm surge disaster.Based on the case subjects of previous major storm surge disasters in Zhejiang Province,we analyze the specific measures taken by relevant subjects to deal with storm surge disasters.This paper presents the current situation of the participants and the cooperation problems among the participants,finds out the causes of the problems,studies and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the coordination management among the participants,provides certain ideas for further developing the disaster prevention and reduction and emergency management of storm surge disasters in coastal areas in order to improve the understanding of multiple subjects on the emergency management of storm surge disasters.

The Numerical Simulation of Storm-Surge and Coastal Flooding in Western Taiwan： A Case Study of 2007 Typhoon SEPAT

A numerical model for simulating storm surge with nested grid system has been applied to hindcast the coastal flooding on both sides of Taiwan Strait. The simulation results can be used to understand the transport variation and the inundation distribution induced by the storm surge on the interested area during typhoon invades. The case in this study is Typhoon SEPAT, which passed through central Taiwan in 2007. The transport characteristics through Taiwan Strait under the influence of Typhoon SEPAT were discussed by comparing the field observations and numerical simulations during the typhoon period. The results indicate that the surge height of Typhoon SEPAT did not respond to the peak of wind waves accompanied with 15 hrs time lag. According to the influence of dynamical forces on the storm surge in Taiwan Strait, the onshore wind is the dominant role of coastal inundation during this typhoon event in Taiwan Strait. By observing the inundation map through the typhoon period, the coasts of Yulin County are verified to be the most serious affected area in the vicinity of Taiwan Strait.

清代苏北沿海的潮灾与风险防范

文章通过对清代苏北沿海风暴潮灾资料的系统收集、鉴别和评估,实现灾情从描述到数值化的转变,完成潮灾等级序列的重建。在此基础上,对清代260多年苏北沿海潮灾变化进行初步分析并加以检验。研究表明,这一时期苏北沿海风暴潮的成灾率较高,灾情强度大体呈由南而北、自东徂西递减的空间分异规律。面对潮灾,近代实业家张謇开创了盐垦区风险防范的新模式,标志着苏北沿海水利建设进入一个新阶段。