Engineering facilities subjected to natural hazards(such as winds and earthquakes) will result in risk when any designed system(i.e.capacity) will not be able to meet the performance required(i.e.demand).Risk might be...Engineering facilities subjected to natural hazards(such as winds and earthquakes) will result in risk when any designed system(i.e.capacity) will not be able to meet the performance required(i.e.demand).Risk might be expressed either as a likelihood of damage or potential financial loss.Engineers tend to make use of the former(i.e.damage).Nevertheless,other non-technical stakeholders cannot get useful information from damage.However,if financial risk is expressed on the basis of probable monetary loss,it will be easily understood by all.Therefore,it is necessary to develop methodologies which communicate the system capacity and demand to financial risk,Incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) was applied in a performance-based earthquake engineering context to do hazard analysis,structural analysis,damage analysis and loss analysis of a reinforced concrete(RC) frame structure.And the financial implications of risk were expressed by expected annual loss(EAL).The quantitative risk analysis proposed is applicable to any engineering facilities and any natural hazards.It is shown that the results from the IDA can be used to assess the overall financial risk exposure to earthquake hazard for a given constructed facility.The computational IDA-EAL method will enable engineers to take into account the long-term financial implications in addition to the construction cost.Consequently,it will help stakeholders make decisions.展开更多
Despite the tremendous effort made by industry and academia,we are still searching for metrics that can characterize Cyberspace and system security risks. In this paper,we study the class of security risks that are in...Despite the tremendous effort made by industry and academia,we are still searching for metrics that can characterize Cyberspace and system security risks. In this paper,we study the class of security risks that are inherent to the dependence structure in software with vulnerabilities and exhibit a "cascading" effect. We present a measurement framework for evaluating these metrics,and report a preliminary case study on evaluating the dependence-induced security risks in the Apache HTTP Server. The experiment results show that our framework can not only clearly analyze the root cause of the security risks but also quantitatively evaluate the attack consequence of the risks.展开更多
The article describes a generic implementation process for risk management that integrates the risk management framework and process described in ISO 31000.According to the process the organizations are able to effect...The article describes a generic implementation process for risk management that integrates the risk management framework and process described in ISO 31000.According to the process the organizations are able to effectively implement risk management ISO 31000,adapted to their unique circumstances.展开更多
Many organizations have now adopted Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) as an architectural style to help them with architecture, design and implementation of their core services and systems. Most of these organizat...Many organizations have now adopted Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) as an architectural style to help them with architecture, design and implementation of their core services and systems. Most of these organizations are challenged in integrating SOA style with their overall Enterprise Architecture work. This framework links an SOA style with the Enterprise Architecture (EA) methodologies to help organizations organize their SOA effort as a key part of their Enterprise Architecture. The case study demonstrates the implementation of architecture goal with organization vision in service oriented organizational structure using services that align Business with Technology. The framework is validated and has reserved the privileges of SOA and EA.展开更多
In this paper, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR) is evaluated with respect to its ramifications for persons with disabilities. In the SFDRR, persons with disabilities were referenced e...In this paper, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR) is evaluated with respect to its ramifications for persons with disabilities. In the SFDRR, persons with disabilities were referenced either directly or indirectly as part of the preamble,the guiding principles, the priorities for action, and the role of stakeholders. In addition, the 2015 World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, during which the SFDRR was adopted, incorporated explicit recommendations toward a disability-accessible and inclusive environment not evident in previous disaster risk reduction conferences. The infusion of disability-related terms and concepts such as accessibility, inclusion, and universal design throughout the SFDRR document was significant. These concepts,which have their origin in disability studies, are used in the SFDRR document to refer to the needs of all in disaster,not only to people with disabilities. These disability-related concepts will now serve the field of disaster risk reduction as important overarching disaster-related principles. The authors conclude that the SFDRR has firmly established people with disabilities and their advocacy organizations as legitimate stakeholders and actors in the design and implementation of international disaster risk reduction policies.展开更多
This article explores the role of public health systems before, during, and after disasters, particularly within the scope of the United Nations Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. It also examines the ro...This article explores the role of public health systems before, during, and after disasters, particularly within the scope of the United Nations Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. It also examines the role of scientific and technological developments in assisting with improving the resilience of public health professionals and the communities they work in. In addition, it explores how the wide-ranging activities in public health have already contributed to the improved management of disasters and a decrease in associated risks. The article identifies areas of synergy in five key areas of recent policy and practice in public health(the health systems approach, risk assessments, the WHO/UNISDR/HPA Disaster Risk Management fact sheets, chronic disease and disasters, and mental health impacts following disasters) and makes suggestions based on lessons identified from the previous(2005) global disaster risk reduction framework. In particular, we advocate the use of scientific evidence that addresses health and disaster risk simultaneously to increase the effectiveness of policy and practice in disaster risk reduction, health, and public health.展开更多
By introducing a stochastic element to the double-jump diffusion framework to measure the Knight uncertainty of asset return process, this paper builds the model of dynamic portfolio choice, which maximizes the expect...By introducing a stochastic element to the double-jump diffusion framework to measure the Knight uncertainty of asset return process, this paper builds the model of dynamic portfolio choice, which maximizes the expected utility of terminal portfolio wealth. Through specifying the state function of uncertainty-aversion, it utilizes the max-min method to derive the analytical solution of the model to study the effect of the time-varying, jumps, and Knight uncertainty of asset return process on dynamic portfolio choice and their interactions. Results of comparative analysis show: The time-varying results in positive or negative intertemporal hedging demand of portfolio, which depends on the coefficient of investor's risk aversion and the correlation coefficient between return shift and volatility shift; the jumps in asset return overall reduce investor's demand for the risky asset, which can be enhanced or weakened by the jumps in volatility; due to the existing of the Knight uncertainty, the investor avoids taking large position on risky asset, and the resulting is the improving of portfolio's steady and immunity. At last, an empirical study is done based on the samples of Shanghai Exchange Composite Index monthly return data from January 1997 to December 2009, which not only tests the theoretical analysis but also demonstrates that the proposed method in the paper is useful from the aspect of portfotio's equivalent utility.展开更多
The fragility of ecosystem health has become a key factor hindering the sustainable development of the ecological environment. Through a review of published research from domestic and foreign scholars, starting from t...The fragility of ecosystem health has become a key factor hindering the sustainable development of the ecological environment. Through a review of published research from domestic and foreign scholars, starting from the endogenous logic of studies in the field of ecosystem vulnerability(EV), this paper sorts out the literature on the aspects of measurement models, prediction methods and risk assessment, comprehensively defines the research category and scientific framework of EV, and analyzes the research ideas and development trends. We arrived at the following conclusions: 1) The connotation of ecosystem vulnerability not only embodies the change in the vulnerability of the natural environment, but it also reflects the irreversible damage to the ecosystem caused by excessive development and industrial production activities. 2) The setting of ecosystem vulnerability indices should aim to fully reflect the essential features of that vulnerability, which should include the index systems of natural, social, economic and other related factors. 3) There are many types of ecosystem vulnerability measurement methods, prediction models and risk evaluation models, which have different focuses and advantages. The most appropriate method should be adopted for conducting comprehensive and systematic evaluation, prediction and estimation according to the different representation and evolution mechanisms of the chosen research object and regional ecosystem vulnerability. 4) Based on the regional system characteristics, corresponding risk management measures should be proposed, and pertinent policy suggestions should be put forward to improve the ecological safety and sustainable development of an ecologically vulnerable area.展开更多
Taking the importance of local action as a starting point, this analysis traces the treatment of participation of local and community actors through the three international frameworks for disaster risk reduction(DRR):...Taking the importance of local action as a starting point, this analysis traces the treatment of participation of local and community actors through the three international frameworks for disaster risk reduction(DRR): the Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World, the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR). The study finds a concerning shift away from valuing local community input and toward promoting technological advances. Community actors went from valued partners with their own expertise and relevant beliefs in Yokohama Strategy to ‘‘aid recipients’ ’ to whom tailored risk information must be transmitted(in SFDRR). This shift may reflect the top-down nature of negotiated international agreements or a broader shift toward investments in technological solutions. Whatever the cause, given widespread recognition of the importance of local knowledge and participation and growing recognition of the importance of intra-community differences in vulnerability, it suggests the need for reconsideration of both the discourse and the practice of involving community-level actors in DRR planning and implementation.展开更多
The third UN World Congress on Disaster Risk Reduction, held in Sendai, Japan in March 2015, agreed on a new framework to guide disaster risk reduction policy and practice for the next 15 years. The Sendai Framework f...The third UN World Congress on Disaster Risk Reduction, held in Sendai, Japan in March 2015, agreed on a new framework to guide disaster risk reduction policy and practice for the next 15 years. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR) leaves important implementation issues unspecified and potentially creates both problems and opportunities for complex,multilevel governance systems in coping with hazards and disastrous events. Early warning systems(EWS), if built into the mainstream of planning for development and disaster relief and recovery, could present a significant opportunity to realize many SFDRR goals. We explore the complexities of using hydrometeorological EWS to prepare for drought and flood disasters in the densely populated communities of Pakistan’s Indus River Basin in contrast to the African Sahel’s less densely settled grasslands. Multilevel governance systems are often dominated by a topdown, technocentric, centralized management bias and have great difficulty responding to the needs of peripheral and vulnerable populations. People-centered, bottom-up approaches that incorporate disaggregated communities with local knowledge into a balanced, multilevel disaster risk management and governance structure have adramatically better chance of realizing the SFDRR goals for disaster risk reduction.展开更多
Abstract Option pricing problem plays an extremely important role in quantitative finance. In com- plete market, Black-Scholes-Merton theory has been central to the development of financial engineering as both discipl...Abstract Option pricing problem plays an extremely important role in quantitative finance. In com- plete market, Black-Scholes-Merton theory has been central to the development of financial engineering as both discipline and profession. However, in incomplete market, there are not any replicating port- folios for those options, and thus, the market traders cannot apply the law of one price for obtaining a unique solution. Fortunately, the authors can get a fair price via local-equilibrium principle. In this paper, the authors apply the stochastic control theory to price the exotic option-barrier options, and analyze the relationship between the price and the current positions. The authors get the explicit expression for the market price of the risk. The position effect plays a significant role in option pricing, because it can tell the trader how many and which direction to trade with the market in order to reach the local equilibrium with the market.展开更多
The 187 countries that adopted the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 at the March 2015 UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction included most African countries. Many developing regions of t...The 187 countries that adopted the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 at the March 2015 UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction included most African countries. Many developing regions of the world, particularly in Asia and Latin America, made considerable progress in implementing the previous Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015. But,despite the fact that Africa is one of the regions most vulnerable and least resilient to disasters, which continue to be exacerbated by poverty, climate change, rapid urbanization, and structural transformation, it saw only slow progress. This article considers the challenges Africa faces in implementing the Sendai Framework and recommends that besides ‘‘Africanizing'' Sendai goals and strengthening the region's political commitment to disaster risk reduction(DRR), Africa should also develop a single framework that integrates DRR, sustainable development, climate change adaptation, and conflict prevention. Equally important is the need for a strong recognition that disasters are created endogenously as well as exogenously, and thus require local solutions and local investment.展开更多
We present a comparative study of the most advanced three-dimensional time-dependent numerical simulation models of solar wind. These models can be classified into two categories: (I) theoretical, empirical and num...We present a comparative study of the most advanced three-dimensional time-dependent numerical simulation models of solar wind. These models can be classified into two categories: (I) theoretical, empirical and numerically based models and (Ⅱ) self-consistent multi-dimensional numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. The models of Category I are used to sep- arately describe the solar wind solution in two plasma flows regions: transonic/trans-Alfvrnic and supersonic/super-Alfvenic, respectively. Models of Category II construct a complete, single, numerical solar wind solution through subsonic/sub-Alfvrnic region into supersonic/super-Alfvrnic region. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)/ENLIL in CISM is the most successful space weather model that belongs to Category I, and the Block-Adaptive-Tree-Solarwind-Roe-Upwind-Scheme (BATS-R-US) code in SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework) and the solar-interplanetary conservative element solution element MHD (SIP-CESE MHD) model in SWIM (Space Weather Integrated Model) are the most commonly-used models that belong to Category II. We review the structures of their frameworks, the main results for solar wind background studies that are essential for solar transient event studies, and discuss the common features and differences between these two categories of solar wind models. Finally, we conclude that the transition of these two categories of models to operational use depends on the availability of computational resources at reasonable cost and point out that the models' prediction capabilities may be improved by employing finer computational grids, incorporating more observational data and by adding more physical constraints to the models.展开更多
This article looks at how population movements are addressed by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR), and highlights some of the potential implications of the SFDRR on disaster risk reduc...This article looks at how population movements are addressed by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR), and highlights some of the potential implications of the SFDRR on disaster risk reduction(DRR) and mobility management work. The article looks at the operational implications of the SFDRR text and covers issues of including migrants in DRR work;informing urban development about current and future mobility trends; managing relocations, evacuations, and displacement to prevent future risks and reduce existing ones; and preparing for and managing disaster-induced population movements to reduce the direct and indirect impacts of natural hazards. Overall, the references to human mobility within the SFDRR show an evolution in the way the issue is considered within global policy dialogues. Both the potential of population movements to produce risk and their role in strengthening the resilience of people and communities are now clearly recognized. This is an evolution of previously prevailing views of mobility as the consequence of disasters or as a driver of risk. While some implications of the DRR-mobility nexus might still be missing from DRR policy, population movements are now recognized as a key global risk dynamic.展开更多
基金Project(2011CB013804) supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProject(50925828) supported by the National Natural Science Funds for Distinguished Young Scholars of China
文摘Engineering facilities subjected to natural hazards(such as winds and earthquakes) will result in risk when any designed system(i.e.capacity) will not be able to meet the performance required(i.e.demand).Risk might be expressed either as a likelihood of damage or potential financial loss.Engineers tend to make use of the former(i.e.damage).Nevertheless,other non-technical stakeholders cannot get useful information from damage.However,if financial risk is expressed on the basis of probable monetary loss,it will be easily understood by all.Therefore,it is necessary to develop methodologies which communicate the system capacity and demand to financial risk,Incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) was applied in a performance-based earthquake engineering context to do hazard analysis,structural analysis,damage analysis and loss analysis of a reinforced concrete(RC) frame structure.And the financial implications of risk were expressed by expected annual loss(EAL).The quantitative risk analysis proposed is applicable to any engineering facilities and any natural hazards.It is shown that the results from the IDA can be used to assess the overall financial risk exposure to earthquake hazard for a given constructed facility.The computational IDA-EAL method will enable engineers to take into account the long-term financial implications in addition to the construction cost.Consequently,it will help stakeholders make decisions.
基金supported by Natural Science Foundation of China under award No.61303024Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province under award No.BK20130372+3 种基金National 973 Program of China under award No.2014CB340600National High Tech 863 Program of China under award No.2015AA016002supported by Natural Science Foundation of China under award No.61272452supported in part by ARO Grant # W911NF-12-1-0286 and NSF Grant #1111925
文摘Despite the tremendous effort made by industry and academia,we are still searching for metrics that can characterize Cyberspace and system security risks. In this paper,we study the class of security risks that are inherent to the dependence structure in software with vulnerabilities and exhibit a "cascading" effect. We present a measurement framework for evaluating these metrics,and report a preliminary case study on evaluating the dependence-induced security risks in the Apache HTTP Server. The experiment results show that our framework can not only clearly analyze the root cause of the security risks but also quantitatively evaluate the attack consequence of the risks.
文摘The article describes a generic implementation process for risk management that integrates the risk management framework and process described in ISO 31000.According to the process the organizations are able to effectively implement risk management ISO 31000,adapted to their unique circumstances.
文摘Many organizations have now adopted Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) as an architectural style to help them with architecture, design and implementation of their core services and systems. Most of these organizations are challenged in integrating SOA style with their overall Enterprise Architecture work. This framework links an SOA style with the Enterprise Architecture (EA) methodologies to help organizations organize their SOA effort as a key part of their Enterprise Architecture. The case study demonstrates the implementation of architecture goal with organization vision in service oriented organizational structure using services that align Business with Technology. The framework is validated and has reserved the privileges of SOA and EA.
文摘In this paper, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR) is evaluated with respect to its ramifications for persons with disabilities. In the SFDRR, persons with disabilities were referenced either directly or indirectly as part of the preamble,the guiding principles, the priorities for action, and the role of stakeholders. In addition, the 2015 World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, during which the SFDRR was adopted, incorporated explicit recommendations toward a disability-accessible and inclusive environment not evident in previous disaster risk reduction conferences. The infusion of disability-related terms and concepts such as accessibility, inclusion, and universal design throughout the SFDRR document was significant. These concepts,which have their origin in disability studies, are used in the SFDRR document to refer to the needs of all in disaster,not only to people with disabilities. These disability-related concepts will now serve the field of disaster risk reduction as important overarching disaster-related principles. The authors conclude that the SFDRR has firmly established people with disabilities and their advocacy organizations as legitimate stakeholders and actors in the design and implementation of international disaster risk reduction policies.
基金support of the Third World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction’s Major Group on Science and Technology, organized by the International Council of Science and its many partners, and its voluntary commitment for the conference
文摘This article explores the role of public health systems before, during, and after disasters, particularly within the scope of the United Nations Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. It also examines the role of scientific and technological developments in assisting with improving the resilience of public health professionals and the communities they work in. In addition, it explores how the wide-ranging activities in public health have already contributed to the improved management of disasters and a decrease in associated risks. The article identifies areas of synergy in five key areas of recent policy and practice in public health(the health systems approach, risk assessments, the WHO/UNISDR/HPA Disaster Risk Management fact sheets, chronic disease and disasters, and mental health impacts following disasters) and makes suggestions based on lessons identified from the previous(2005) global disaster risk reduction framework. In particular, we advocate the use of scientific evidence that addresses health and disaster risk simultaneously to increase the effectiveness of policy and practice in disaster risk reduction, health, and public health.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71271003 and 71171003Programming Fund Project of the Humanities and Social Sciences Research of the Ministry of Education of China under Grant No.12YJA790041+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province under Grant No.1208085MG116Key Program of Natural Science Research of High Education of Anhui Province of China under Grant No.KJ2011A031
文摘By introducing a stochastic element to the double-jump diffusion framework to measure the Knight uncertainty of asset return process, this paper builds the model of dynamic portfolio choice, which maximizes the expected utility of terminal portfolio wealth. Through specifying the state function of uncertainty-aversion, it utilizes the max-min method to derive the analytical solution of the model to study the effect of the time-varying, jumps, and Knight uncertainty of asset return process on dynamic portfolio choice and their interactions. Results of comparative analysis show: The time-varying results in positive or negative intertemporal hedging demand of portfolio, which depends on the coefficient of investor's risk aversion and the correlation coefficient between return shift and volatility shift; the jumps in asset return overall reduce investor's demand for the risky asset, which can be enhanced or weakened by the jumps in volatility; due to the existing of the Knight uncertainty, the investor avoids taking large position on risky asset, and the resulting is the improving of portfolio's steady and immunity. At last, an empirical study is done based on the samples of Shanghai Exchange Composite Index monthly return data from January 1997 to December 2009, which not only tests the theoretical analysis but also demonstrates that the proposed method in the paper is useful from the aspect of portfotio's equivalent utility.
基金The National Social Science Fundation of China (17XJY020)The National Natural Science Foundation of China (71963028)The Discipline Construction Project for Ningxia Institutions of Higher Education (Discipline of Theoretical Economics)(NXYLXK2017B04)。
文摘The fragility of ecosystem health has become a key factor hindering the sustainable development of the ecological environment. Through a review of published research from domestic and foreign scholars, starting from the endogenous logic of studies in the field of ecosystem vulnerability(EV), this paper sorts out the literature on the aspects of measurement models, prediction methods and risk assessment, comprehensively defines the research category and scientific framework of EV, and analyzes the research ideas and development trends. We arrived at the following conclusions: 1) The connotation of ecosystem vulnerability not only embodies the change in the vulnerability of the natural environment, but it also reflects the irreversible damage to the ecosystem caused by excessive development and industrial production activities. 2) The setting of ecosystem vulnerability indices should aim to fully reflect the essential features of that vulnerability, which should include the index systems of natural, social, economic and other related factors. 3) There are many types of ecosystem vulnerability measurement methods, prediction models and risk evaluation models, which have different focuses and advantages. The most appropriate method should be adopted for conducting comprehensive and systematic evaluation, prediction and estimation according to the different representation and evolution mechanisms of the chosen research object and regional ecosystem vulnerability. 4) Based on the regional system characteristics, corresponding risk management measures should be proposed, and pertinent policy suggestions should be put forward to improve the ecological safety and sustainable development of an ecologically vulnerable area.
文摘Taking the importance of local action as a starting point, this analysis traces the treatment of participation of local and community actors through the three international frameworks for disaster risk reduction(DRR): the Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World, the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR). The study finds a concerning shift away from valuing local community input and toward promoting technological advances. Community actors went from valued partners with their own expertise and relevant beliefs in Yokohama Strategy to ‘‘aid recipients’ ’ to whom tailored risk information must be transmitted(in SFDRR). This shift may reflect the top-down nature of negotiated international agreements or a broader shift toward investments in technological solutions. Whatever the cause, given widespread recognition of the importance of local knowledge and participation and growing recognition of the importance of intra-community differences in vulnerability, it suggests the need for reconsideration of both the discourse and the practice of involving community-level actors in DRR planning and implementation.
基金funding from the National Science Foundation for EPS-1101317 project on ‘‘Research on Adaptation to Climate Change’’NSF-SESYNC/NIMBIOS DBI-1052875 project on ‘‘Integrating Human Risk Perception of Global Climate Change into Dynamic Earth System Models’’
文摘The third UN World Congress on Disaster Risk Reduction, held in Sendai, Japan in March 2015, agreed on a new framework to guide disaster risk reduction policy and practice for the next 15 years. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR) leaves important implementation issues unspecified and potentially creates both problems and opportunities for complex,multilevel governance systems in coping with hazards and disastrous events. Early warning systems(EWS), if built into the mainstream of planning for development and disaster relief and recovery, could present a significant opportunity to realize many SFDRR goals. We explore the complexities of using hydrometeorological EWS to prepare for drought and flood disasters in the densely populated communities of Pakistan’s Indus River Basin in contrast to the African Sahel’s less densely settled grasslands. Multilevel governance systems are often dominated by a topdown, technocentric, centralized management bias and have great difficulty responding to the needs of peripheral and vulnerable populations. People-centered, bottom-up approaches that incorporate disaggregated communities with local knowledge into a balanced, multilevel disaster risk management and governance structure have adramatically better chance of realizing the SFDRR goals for disaster risk reduction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.9732007CB814901
文摘Abstract Option pricing problem plays an extremely important role in quantitative finance. In com- plete market, Black-Scholes-Merton theory has been central to the development of financial engineering as both discipline and profession. However, in incomplete market, there are not any replicating port- folios for those options, and thus, the market traders cannot apply the law of one price for obtaining a unique solution. Fortunately, the authors can get a fair price via local-equilibrium principle. In this paper, the authors apply the stochastic control theory to price the exotic option-barrier options, and analyze the relationship between the price and the current positions. The authors get the explicit expression for the market price of the risk. The position effect plays a significant role in option pricing, because it can tell the trader how many and which direction to trade with the market in order to reach the local equilibrium with the market.
文摘The 187 countries that adopted the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 at the March 2015 UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction included most African countries. Many developing regions of the world, particularly in Asia and Latin America, made considerable progress in implementing the previous Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015. But,despite the fact that Africa is one of the regions most vulnerable and least resilient to disasters, which continue to be exacerbated by poverty, climate change, rapid urbanization, and structural transformation, it saw only slow progress. This article considers the challenges Africa faces in implementing the Sendai Framework and recommends that besides ‘‘Africanizing'' Sendai goals and strengthening the region's political commitment to disaster risk reduction(DRR), Africa should also develop a single framework that integrates DRR, sustainable development, climate change adaptation, and conflict prevention. Equally important is the need for a strong recognition that disasters are created endogenously as well as exogenously, and thus require local solutions and local investment.
基金Work done by Shi Tsan WU was supported by National Science Foundation of USA(Grant No.AGS 1153323)
文摘We present a comparative study of the most advanced three-dimensional time-dependent numerical simulation models of solar wind. These models can be classified into two categories: (I) theoretical, empirical and numerically based models and (Ⅱ) self-consistent multi-dimensional numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. The models of Category I are used to sep- arately describe the solar wind solution in two plasma flows regions: transonic/trans-Alfvrnic and supersonic/super-Alfvenic, respectively. Models of Category II construct a complete, single, numerical solar wind solution through subsonic/sub-Alfvrnic region into supersonic/super-Alfvrnic region. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)/ENLIL in CISM is the most successful space weather model that belongs to Category I, and the Block-Adaptive-Tree-Solarwind-Roe-Upwind-Scheme (BATS-R-US) code in SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework) and the solar-interplanetary conservative element solution element MHD (SIP-CESE MHD) model in SWIM (Space Weather Integrated Model) are the most commonly-used models that belong to Category II. We review the structures of their frameworks, the main results for solar wind background studies that are essential for solar transient event studies, and discuss the common features and differences between these two categories of solar wind models. Finally, we conclude that the transition of these two categories of models to operational use depends on the availability of computational resources at reasonable cost and point out that the models' prediction capabilities may be improved by employing finer computational grids, incorporating more observational data and by adding more physical constraints to the models.
文摘This article looks at how population movements are addressed by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR), and highlights some of the potential implications of the SFDRR on disaster risk reduction(DRR) and mobility management work. The article looks at the operational implications of the SFDRR text and covers issues of including migrants in DRR work;informing urban development about current and future mobility trends; managing relocations, evacuations, and displacement to prevent future risks and reduce existing ones; and preparing for and managing disaster-induced population movements to reduce the direct and indirect impacts of natural hazards. Overall, the references to human mobility within the SFDRR show an evolution in the way the issue is considered within global policy dialogues. Both the potential of population movements to produce risk and their role in strengthening the resilience of people and communities are now clearly recognized. This is an evolution of previously prevailing views of mobility as the consequence of disasters or as a driver of risk. While some implications of the DRR-mobility nexus might still be missing from DRR policy, population movements are now recognized as a key global risk dynamic.