This paper discusses theories and methods of climate change risk studies for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure, and possibility. Un...This paper discusses theories and methods of climate change risk studies for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure, and possibility. Uncertainty, future events, damages, and relativity are the major features of climate change risk. Climate change risk research includes two key steps: risk assessment and risk management, the former is the process, and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change. We present the main framework and methods for climate change risk research. A case study on China's floods risk is taken as an example of climate change risk study. Finally, we point out main aspects of climate change risk research, including ensemble-based probabilistic projection, quantitative risk assessment, risk zoning and mapping, and risk management.展开更多
The risk assessment of contract conclusion is the primary and key part of equipment purchase contract risk management. In this paper, based on the fuzzy characteristics of contract risks, and overcoming the traditiona...The risk assessment of contract conclusion is the primary and key part of equipment purchase contract risk management. In this paper, based on the fuzzy characteristics of contract risks, and overcoming the traditional disadvantages of analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （FAHP） of contract conclusion is proposed for meeting the actual need of equipment procurement contract risk assessment, and implementing the risk factors qualitative and quantitative assessments of different working nodes in contract conclusion. Thus, a scientific and reliable important basis is provided for the risk management of equipment procurement contract.展开更多
This paper studies multi-period risk management problems by presenting a dynamic risk measure. This risk measure is the sum of conditional value-at-risk of each period. The authors model it by Markov decision processe...This paper studies multi-period risk management problems by presenting a dynamic risk measure. This risk measure is the sum of conditional value-at-risk of each period. The authors model it by Markov decision processes and derive its optimality equation. This equation is further transformed equivalently to an analytically tractable one. The authors then use the model and its results to a multi-period portfolio optimization when the return rate vectors at each period form a Markov chain.展开更多
基金supported by National Science and Technology Support Program (No. 2012BAC19B10)Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCXZ-YW-QO3-01)
文摘This paper discusses theories and methods of climate change risk studies for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure, and possibility. Uncertainty, future events, damages, and relativity are the major features of climate change risk. Climate change risk research includes two key steps: risk assessment and risk management, the former is the process, and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change. We present the main framework and methods for climate change risk research. A case study on China's floods risk is taken as an example of climate change risk study. Finally, we point out main aspects of climate change risk research, including ensemble-based probabilistic projection, quantitative risk assessment, risk zoning and mapping, and risk management.
文摘The risk assessment of contract conclusion is the primary and key part of equipment purchase contract risk management. In this paper, based on the fuzzy characteristics of contract risks, and overcoming the traditional disadvantages of analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （FAHP） of contract conclusion is proposed for meeting the actual need of equipment procurement contract risk assessment, and implementing the risk factors qualitative and quantitative assessments of different working nodes in contract conclusion. Thus, a scientific and reliable important basis is provided for the risk management of equipment procurement contract.
基金This research was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 70971023 and 71001089 and in part by the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province under Grant No. Y60860040.
文摘This paper studies multi-period risk management problems by presenting a dynamic risk measure. This risk measure is the sum of conditional value-at-risk of each period. The authors model it by Markov decision processes and derive its optimality equation. This equation is further transformed equivalently to an analytically tractable one. The authors then use the model and its results to a multi-period portfolio optimization when the return rate vectors at each period form a Markov chain.
