政府投资工程采用EPC工程总承包模式风险分析及控制研究

系统分析EPC模式的优势和挑战,具体剖析了该模式应用于政府工程建设领域所面临的风险,并提出了规避风险的对策建议。

Application of Risk Probability Evaluation Method to Offshore Platform Construction

Offshore project risk concerns many influence factors with complex relationship, and traditional methods cannot be used for the evaluation on risk probability. To deal with this problem, a new method was developed by the combination of improved technique for order preference by similarity ideal solution method, analytical hierarchy process method and the network response surface method. The risk probability was calculated by adopting network response surface analysis based on the state variable of a known event and its degree of membership.This quantification method was applied to an offshore platform project, Bonan oil and gas field project in Bohai Bay in June 2004.There were 7 sub-projects and each includes 4 risk factors.The values of 28 risk factors, ranging from 10^-6 to 10^-4, were achieved. This precision conforms to the international principle of as low as reasonably practically.The evaluation indicates that the values of comprehensive level of construction group and ability of technical personnel on the spot are relatively high among all risk factors, so these two factors should be paid more attention to in offshore platform construction.

Risk Acceptability and Cost-Effectiveness of Protective Measures Against Terrorist Threats to Built Infrastructure Considering Multiple Threat Scenarios

Decisions are often needed about the need and/or extent of protective measures against explosive blast loads on built infrastructure. A decision support analysis considers fatality risks and cost-effectiveness of protective measures expressed in terms of expected cost spent on risk reduction per life saved for terrorist threats to infrastructure. The analysis is applicable to any item of infrastructure, but in this paper is applied to casualties arising from building facade glazing damage. Risks may be compared with risk acceptance criteria in the form of quantitative safety goals. The risk acceptability and cost-effectiveness of protective measures includes cost of the protective measures, attack probability,reduction in risk due to protective measures,probability of fatality conditional on successful terrorist attack and number of exposed individuals.

Micro-Climate Evaluation System in Thermal Mines

A fuzzy evaluation method was used to evaluate the microclimate in thermal mines. A theoretical model of a microclimate evaluation system was designed and membership functions of the evaluation indices in the system were established. An analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used to analyze the weight of the evalua- tion indices and their methods of calculation. Software for this evaluation system was developed and used for the evaluation of the microclimate of 714 sections in a mine. It is shown that the evaluation results correspond com- pletely with the actual situation. This evaluation system and the software can be applied in thermal mines.

Evaluation of Pesticide Residues in Mango by a Multi-residue Analysis and GC/MS Triple Quadrupole

Mango fruit has a great national and international market, and Brazilian production is 1,900 thousand tons/year exporting to North America and Europe. However, the loss could occur during the production when it is affected by pests and climate conditions, so the increased use of chemical substances and their presence should be monitored. A task for governmental agencies, producers and food sales, attending the sanitary barriers requirements, is to distribute food free from contaminants, so laboratories involved in this type of work usually employ multi-residues analysis. The objective of this study was to evaluate the presence of pesticide residues in mango using QuEChERS method and mass spectrometry technique. Positive samples were compared with Brazilian maximum residues level （MRL） and the health risk exposure was evaluated using the acute dietary intake （ADI） parameter. A total of 20 samples were collected from January to March, in Sao Paulo city markets. The recoveries were in the range of 70% to 120%, and standard deviation was below 20%. The category of pesticides not permitted for the crop were found in l0 samples; eight samples presented pesticides below MRL and two samples above MRL for the fungicide procloraz. The ADI values were below 20% of ADI for an adult and the worst case was dimethoate with 69% of ADI for children. The time spent in monitoring studies and the viability of method chosen must be considered by pesticide residues laboratories during routine analysis of food quality control.

Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment

Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investment. By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return, together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investment is established. The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.

Debris Flows Risk Analysis and Direct Loss Estimation:the Case Study of Valtellina di Tirano,Italy

andslide risk analysis is one of the primary studies providing essential instructions to the subsequent risk management process. The quantification of tangible and intangible potential losses is a critical step because it provides essential data upon which judgments can be made and policy can be formulated. This study aims at quantifying direct economic losses from debris flows at a medium scale in the study area in Italian Central Alps. Available hazard maps were the main inputs of this study. These maps were overlaid with information concerning elements at risk and their economic value. Then, a combination of both market and construction values was used to obtain estimates of future economic losses. As a result, two direct economic risk maps were prepared together with risk curves, useful to summarize expected monetary damage against the respective hazard probability. Afterwards, a qualitative risk map derived using a risk matrix officially provided by the set of laws issued by the regional government, was prepared. The results delimit areas of high economic as well as strategic importance which might be affected by debris flows in the future. Aside from limitations and inaccuracies inherently included in risk analysis process, identification of high risk areas allows local authorities to focus their attention on the “hot-spots”, where important consequences may arise and local （large） scale analysis needs to be performed with more precise cost-effectiveness ratio. The risk maps can be also used by the local authorities to increase population’s adaptive capacity in the disaster prevention process.

Analytical Methods for Environmental Risk Assessment of Acid Sulfate Soils: A Review

Assessment of acid sulfate soil risk is an important step for acid sulfate soil management and its reliability depends very much on the suitability and accuracy of various analytical methods for estimating sulfide-derived potential acidity, actual acidity and acid-neutralizing capacity in acid sulfate soils. This paper critically reviews various analytical methods that are currently used for determination of the above parameters, as well as their implications for environmental risk assessment of acid sulfate soi1s.

Monsoon Change in East Asia in the 21st Century: Results of RegCM3

The authors investigate monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario using the results of a regional climate model, RegCM3, with a high horizontal resolution. First, the authors evaluate the model's performance compared with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, showing that the model can reliably reproduce the basic climatology of both winter and summer monsoons over East Asia. Next, it is found that the winter monsoon in East Asia would slightly weaken in the 21st century with spatial differences. Over northern East China, anomalous southerly winds would dominate in the mid-and late-21st century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast is expected to become smaller, due to a stronger warming trend over land than over ocean. However, the intensity of the summer monsoon in East Asia shows a statistically significant upward trend over this century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the western North Pacific would become larger, which, in turn, would lead to larger sea level pressure gradients throughout East Asia and extending to the adjacent ocean.

Hazard and population vulnerability analysis: a step towards landslide risk assessment

In this paper, an attempt to analyse landslide hazard and vulnerability in the municipality of Pahuatlfin, Puebla, Mexico, is presented. In order to estimate landslide hazard, the susceptibility, magnitude （area-velocity ratio） and landslide frequency of the area of interest were produced based on information derived from a geomorphological landslide inventory; the latter was generated by using very high resolution satellite stereo pairs along with information derived from other sources （Google Earth, aerial photographs and historical information）. Estimations of landslide susceptibility were determined by combining four statistical techniques： （i） logistic regression, （ii） quadratic discriminant analysis, （iii） linear discriminant analysis, and （iv） neuronal networks. A Digital Elevation Model （DEM） of lo m spatial resolution was used to extract the slope angle, aspect, curvature, elevation and relief. These factors, in addition to land cover, lithology anddistance to faults, were used as explanatory variables for the susceptibility models. Additionally, a Poisson model was used to estimate landslide temporal frequency, at the same time as landslide magnitude was obtained by using the relationship between landslide area and the velocity of movements. Then, due to the complexity of evaluating it, vulnerability of population was analysed by applying the Spatial Approach to Vulnerability Assessment （SAVE） model which considered levels of exposure, sensitivity and lack of resilience. Results were expressed on maps on which different spatial patterns of levels of landslide hazard and vulnerability were found for the inhabited areas. It is noteworthy that the lack of optimal methodologies to estimate and quantify vulnerability is more notorious than that of hazard assessments. Consequently, levels of uncertainty linked to landslide risk assessment remain a challenge to be addressed.

Evaluation of survival stow position and stability analysis for heliostat under strong wind

Heliostats are sensitive to the wind load, thus as a key indicator, the study on the static and dynamic stability bearing capacity for heliostats is very important. In this work, a numerical wind tunnel was established to calculate the wind load coefficients in various survival stow positions. In order to explore the best survival stow position for the heliostat under the strong wind, eigenvalue buckling analysis method was introduced to predict the critical wind load theoretically. Considering the impact of the nonlinearity and initial geometrical imperfection, the nonlinear post-buckling behaviors of the heliostat were investigated by load-displacement curves in the full equilibrium process. Eventually, combining B-R criterion with equivalent displacement principle the dynamic critical wind speed and load amplitude coefficient were evaluated. The results show that the determination for the best survival stow position is too hasty just by the wind load coefficients. The geometric nonlinearity has a great effect on the stability bearing capacity of the heliostat, while the effects of the material nonlinearity and initial geometrical imperfection are relatively small. And the heliostat is insensitive to the initial geometrical imperfection. In addition, the heliostat has the highest safety factor for wind-resistant performance in the stow position of 90-90 which can be taken as the best survival stow position. In this case, the extreme survival wind speeds for the static and dynamic stability are 150 m/s and 36 m/s, respectively.

Application of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and neural network in power transformer risk assessment

In operation,risk arising from power transformer faults is of much uncertainty and complicacy.To timely and objectively control the risks,a transformer risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) and artificial neural network(ANN) from the perspective of accuracy and quickness is proposed.An analytic hierarchy process model for the transformer risk assessment is built by analysis of the risk factors affecting the transformer risk level and the weight relation of each risk factor in transformer risk calculation is analyzed by application of fuzzy consistency judgment matrix;with utilization of adaptive ability and nonlinear mapping ability of the ANN,the risk factors with large weights are used as input of neutral network,and thus intelligent quantitative assessment of transformer risk is realized.The simulation result shows that the proposed method increases the speed and accuracy of the risk assessment and can provide feasible decision basis for the transformer risk management and maintenance decisions.

Influence of The Belt and Road Initiative on Oil and Gas Infrastructure

China has proposed the ＂Belt and Road Initiative （B＆R）＂ in 2013. One its core strategies is international oil/gas cooperation. This paper addresses the status quo of cooperation on oil/gas infrastructure with countries along the line of ＂B＆R＇, anticipahs the cooperatiorl prospect. On this basis, the author analyzes China＇s advantages and cooperation basis in this domain, conceives the practical way of cooperation on oil/gas infrastructure with countries along the line of ＂B＆R＇. This paper also elaborates on tlre potential risks, risk evaluation criteria and risk corr trol in oil/gas infrastructu re cooperation with countries tries along tire line of ＂B＆R＂.

Determination of Weak Points Based on Risk Theory and Application to Transmission Network Planning

In the traditional power transmission network planning,deterministic analysis methods are widely used.In such methods,all contingencies are deemed to have the same occurrence probability,which is not reasonable.In this paper,risk assessment is introduced to the process of transmission network planning considering the probabilistic characteristics of contingencies.Risk indices are given to determine the weak points of the transmission network based on local information,such as bus risk,line overload risk,contingency severity.The indices are calculated by the optimal cost control method based on risk theory,which can help planners to quickly determine weak points in the planning and find solution to them.For simplification,only line overload violation is considered.Finally,the proposed method is validated by an IEEE-RTS test system and a real power system in China from two aspects.In the first case,the original system is evaluated by the proposed method to find the weak points,and then four planning schemes are established,among which the best scheme is selected.In the second case,four initial planning schemes are established by combining the experiences of planners,and after the evaluation by using the proposed method,the best planning scheme is improved based on the information of weak points in the initial schemes,and the risk of improved scheme is reduced from 42 531.86 MW·h per year to 4 431.26 MW·h per year.

A land use-based spatial analysis method for human health risk assessment of heavy metals in soil and its application in Zhuzhou City, Hunan Province, China

A land use- and geographical information system-based framework was presented for potential human health risk analysis using soil sampling data obtained in Zhuzhou City, Hunan Province, China. The results show that heavy metal content in soil significantly differs among different land use types. In total, 8.3% of the study area has a hazard index(HI) above the threshold of 1.0. High HIs are recorded mainly for industrial areas. Arsenic((29)87%) and the soil ingestion pathway(about 76%) contribute most to the HI. The mean standardized error and root-mean-square standardized error data indicate that the land use-based simulation method provides more accurate estimates than the classic method, which applies only geostatistical analysis to entire study area and disregards land use information. The findings not only highlight the significance of industrial land use, arsenic and the soil ingestion exposure pathway, but also indicate that evaluating different land use-types can spatially identify areas of greater concern for human health and better identify health risks.

Multimedia health risk assessment:A case study of scenario-uncertainty

Assisted by framework of multimedia total exposure model for hazard waste sites(CalTOX),potential influences of scenario-uncertainty on multimedia health risk assessment(MHRA) and decision-making were quantitatively analyzed in a primary extent under the Chinese scenario case by deliberately varying the two key scenario-elements,namely conceptual exposure pathways combination and aim receptor cohorts choice.Results show that the independent change of one exposure pathway or receptor cohort could lead variation of MHRA results in the range of 3.6×10-6-1.4×10-5 or 6.7×10-6-2.3×10-5.And randomly simultaneous change of those two elements could lead variation of MHRA results at the range of 7.7×10-8-2.3×10-5.On the basis of the corresponding sensitivity analysis,pathways which made a valid contribution to the final modeling risk value occupied only 16.7% of all considered pathways.Afterwards,comparative analysis between influence of parameter-uncertainty and influence of scenario-uncertainty was made.In consideration of interrelationship among all types of uncertainties and financial reasonability during MHRA procedures,the integrated method how to optimize the entire procedures of MHRA was presented innovatively based on sensitivity analysis,scenario-discussion and nest Monte Carlo simulation or fuzzy mathematics.

Risk assessments of debris flow based on improved analytic hierarchy process and efficacy coefficient method

In order to evaluate the danger of debris flow properly, eight factors were selected as the risk assess- ment indexes of the debris flow, namely the vertical slope, valley relative difference, hillside slope, area of ba- sin, loose solid material reserves, the path length of sediment supply probability, silting and scouring derrieking and vegetation coverage. The improved Analytic Hierarchy Process （ AHP ） method was used to obtain the weights of the factors; and the efficacy coefficient method was adopted to evaluate the risks of six typical debris flow gullies. According to the research, the improved AHP method not only avoids the subjectivity in the indi- vidual factor valuation by comparing two factors of each layer, but also makes the subsequent consistency check unnecessary.

Real-time lane departure warning system based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution and risk evaluation model

A technology for unintended lane departure warning was proposed. As crucial information, lane boundaries were detected based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution in search bars of given number and then each search bar was tracked using Kalman filter between frames. The lane detection performance was evaluated and demonstrated in ways of receiver operating characteristic, dice similarity coefficient and real-time performance. For lane departure detection, a lane departure risk evaluation model based on lasting time and frequency was effectively executed on the ARM-based platform. Experimental results indicate that the algorithm generates satisfactory lane detection results under different traffic and lighting conditions, and the proposed warning mechanism sends effective warning signals, avoiding most false warning.

Risk Analysis in Renewable Energy： Assessment of the Vulnerability of the Environment and Community

As a result of recent accidents, society is becoming more conscious and concerned about the risk that are under to the environment and communities. A proposal of assessment of the vulnerability of the environment and community is presented here under a holistic perspective using fuzzy logic as a formal tool. An internal factor of the risk of a system under a given threat is assessed. Risk is considered as the union between the threat and the vulnerability of the environment and community. This approach shows that the reduction in either or both of them makes a reduction in the risk content as well. The main purpose of this proposal is not to obtain a single value as output; in fact the result is a map which can contribute to the different areas of the community in decision making.

Assessment of Heart Rate Variability and Heart Rate Turbulence Parameters in the Patients with Arterial Hypertension of the II Degree

Background： AH （Arterial hypertension） due to the extremely high incidence is the most important risk factor for development of myocardial infarctions, strokes and lethal outcomes. It is very important to identify a group of patients with increased risk of adverse outcomes to modify treatment and prevention. Significant assistance in resolving this problem is to provide a method of HM （Holter monitoring） which allows estimating the HRV （heart rate variability） and HRT （heart rate turbulence） parameters that are independent risk predictors of sudden cardiac death. The aim of our study was to assess HRV and HRT parameters in patients with AH of the II degree. Materials and methods： We have studied parameters of HRV and HRT in 214 patients with AH of the II-nd degree aged 35 to 70 （57.7 ± 7.6） years： 121 women （56.5%） and 93 men （43.5%）. All patients underwent electrocardiography and echocardiography. Statistical analysis of the results has been made using the analytical package Statistics 10.0. Results： The parameters of HRV and HRT in patients with AH of the II degree were studied. Statistically significant correlations of the HRV parameters with the age of patients, average HR, circadian index, and EF （ejection fraction） were revealed. Statistically significant correlations of the HRT parameters with the LVMI （left ventricular mass index）, EF, HR average were received. High level of the statistical significance of the interrelation of HRT parameters （TO and TS） has been revealed. Conclusions： The received results can be used during the selection of the group of patients with AH having high risk for unfavorable outcomes. Taking into account the features of the HRV and turbulence parameters and factors associated with them this will enable the individualization of the assessment of the risk in AH as much as possible and prescription of adequate treatment for each patient.