基于风过程方法的风电功率预测结果不确定性估计

以我国多个地区实际运行风电场为研究对象,以实现风电功率预测结果不确定性较优估计为目的,提出了基于风过程方法的风电功率预测结果不确定性估计方法,并给出了各风过程的数学模型。采用风过程方法和功率水平划分方法划分预测误差数据,可有效识别不同特性预测误差。采用非参数回归方法拟合误差概率密度分布,获得了较优的拟合结果。根据实际风电场数据验证文中方法的先进性,其与基于正态分布优化拟合的估计方法的比较结果表明,文中方法的各项评价指标均优于后者。

鄱阳湖砂山地区风沙化过程中物种多样性的变化

对鄱阳湖砂山地区土地风沙化过程中物种多样性的变化特征进行了分析,依据植物种在各类型风沙化土地的出现频率与不同风沙化阶段各生活型植物种的组成,探讨了风沙化过程中植物种绝灭与定居特点。物种多样性指数分析表明:风沙化过程是物种多样性衰减的过程,风沙化首先导致特有种的灭绝,其次为稀有种。从植物的生活型来看,多年生草本与乔木类植物受风沙化影响最大,而灌木类植物可存活风沙化过程各个阶段,在风沙化过程中植物种的绝灭速率大于定居速率。

鄱阳湖区风沙化过程中土壤理化性质的变化特征

以江西省都昌县多宝乡风蚀区为研究区,采用空间代替时间的方法,将不同植被覆盖度的固定沙丘、半流动沙丘、流动沙丘代表风沙化过程的3个主要阶段,分析不同类型沙丘土壤性质的变化特征,为鄱阳湖沙丘土壤修复及植被恢复提供理论参考依据。结果表明:(1)不同类型沙丘的土壤理化性质差异显著,土壤含水率、孔隙度、有机质、全氮和全磷含量等指标均以固定沙丘最高,半流动沙丘次之,流动沙丘最低,土壤容重则以流动沙丘最大;(2)不同类型沙丘上层(0~10 cm)和下层(10~20 cm)土壤的理化性质不同,下层土壤的土壤含水率、容重高于上层土壤,上层土壤的土壤孔隙度、有机质、全氮和全磷含量均高于下层土壤;(3)不同类型沙丘样地的土壤含水率、孔隙度、有机质、全氮和全磷含量等指标均处于较低水平。鄱阳湖区沙地的风沙化过程导致了该区域土壤理化性质的下降,有效保护和恢复沙丘植被有利于改善土壤的理化性质。

浅析造粒风送过程对聚乙烯产品质量的影响

依据实验分析了造粒风送工艺、设备、操作等方面聚乙烯（主要是DFDA－7042）产品质量特别是鱼眼指标的影响，并提出了解决问题的措施。

长时间尺度风电出力时间序列建模新方法研究

通过分析风电出力时间序列内部组成结构,提出了一种构造未来风电出力场景的新方法。该方法首先对风电出力时间序列进行滤波和理想化处理,然后将风电出力时间序列划分为风过程和片段并统计风过程转移概率和片段概率分布,最后序贯抽样风过程和片段得到模拟风电时间序列。通过比对历史风电出力和模拟风电出力的特性,验证了新方法的可靠性。该方法为研究风电规划、风电容量可信度、风电接入后系统可靠性和风电接纳能力评估打下了基础。

科尔沁沙地粗—细组分的碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄特征:对定量物源及区域构造-岩浆演化事件的指示

追踪干旱—半干旱地区大型沙地的物源和风-河流相互作用机制对于理解陆地景观格局演变、地表过程与地貌动态以及大气圈和岩石圈之间的联系至关重要。然而,目前科尔沁沙地的物源仍存在较大争议,且缺乏具有统计意义的锆石U-Pb年龄数据库。因此,本研究对科尔沁沙地地表风成沙进行多点取样,根据不同粒级(<63μm和>63μm)选取1500颗碎屑锆石进行U-Pb测年分析,并利用逆向蒙特卡罗模型对其物源进行定量约束。结果表明,从目视定性的角度看,科尔沁沙地的碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄谱特征非常相似。但定量重建结果显示沙地的物源整体上以中亚造山带的贡献为主(50.5%~61.3%),然而东南部体现出华北克拉通的绝对优势(~75.8%)。科尔沁沙地的物源存在空间异质性,沙地西部和北部的锆石年龄谱极为相似,与南部锆石年龄特征显著不同。科尔沁沙地的碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄特征基本不受粒度分异的影响,但沙地东南部除外。本文认为,风与河流的协同作用及其由此导致的沉积分异和再循环作用解释了科尔沁沙地碎屑锆石的U-Pb年龄特征。结合区域构造演化历史,科尔沁沙地在~2.5 Ga和~1.85 Ga的U-Pb年龄峰值分别是前寒武纪华北克拉通的生长、拼合与碰撞过程中的两期构造事件的产物。此外,~1.7 Ga的锆石年龄可能是对Columbia超大陆聚合与裂解的综合响应。古生代以来的锆石年龄峰值(500~400 Ma、300~250 Ma、130~110 Ma)记录了在古亚洲洋的俯冲闭合、蒙古-鄂霍次克海俯冲碰撞和古太平洋的俯冲、回退的区域构造背景下多期区域构造-岩浆事件。

舞钢1260 m^3高炉长休风恢复炉况总结

对舞钢1260m^3高炉长休风及炉况恢复过程进行了总结。对休风前炉况和休风料的加入、休风过程的控制及复风后炉况的恢复过程进行了分析概述,并对本次长休风过程存在的焦比添加量较少、锰矿配吃较多、风口堵砖原则性失误等因素对高炉恢复生产的不利影响进行了分析,为以后的长休风过程及炉况恢复积累了丰富的经验。

供电企业基于数据资源共享融合的全过程风控体系

在内外部监管形势日益趋严、电力体制改革深入推进的大背景下,国网南京供电公司以建设中国特色国际领先能源互联网企业战略目标为引领,聚焦业财融合、过程管控和价值创造,将全面风险管理理念、精益管理理念和可持续发展思维贯穿于风控工作全过程,借助“大云物移智”等新技术,创新数据资源归集共享应用,打造了一个机制健全、智慧有效、精准识别、动态防治的“免疫系统”,形成协同、融合、实用、高效的风险管控体系,全面提升了生产经营水平和风险防范能力,为公司更高质量、更有效率、更可持续、更为安全的发展提供了有力保障。

空气渗透及其能耗的计算机动态仿真研究

本文在综合考虑影响渗风过程各主要因素的基础上建立一渗风简化模型并进行仿真,在对结果分析后认为,模型反映了渗风机理,体现了渗风量及其能耗的变化趋势且具有通用性,可供相关研究人员参考。

Column leaching process of rare earth and aluminum from weathered crust elution-deposited rare earth ore with ammonium salts

In order to better understand the leaching process of rare earth （RE） and aluminum （Al） from the weathered crust elutiondepositedRE ore, the mass transfer of RE and Al in column leaching was investigated using the chromatographic plate theory. Theresults show that a higher initial ammonium concentration in a certain range can enhance the mass transfer process. pH of leachingagent in the range of 2 to 8 almost has no effect on the mass transfer efficiency of RE, but plays a positive role in the mass transferefficiency of Al under strong acidic condition （pH〈4）. There is an optimum flow rate that makes the highest mass transfer efficiency.The optimum leaching condition of RE is the leaching agent pH of 4？8, ammonium concentration of 0.4 mol/L and flow rate of0.5 mL/min. The mass transfer efficiencies of RE and Al both follow the order： （NH4）2SO4〈NH4Cl〈NH4NO3, implying thecomplexing ability of anion.

都昌县多宝砂山物种多样性研究及保护初探

对鄱阳湖都昌县多宝砂山地区土地风沙化过程中物种多样性的变化特征进行了分析,依据植物种在各类型风沙化土地的出现频率与不同风沙化阶段各生活型植物种的组成,探讨了风沙化过程中植物种的绝灭与定居特点.物种多样性指数分析表明:风沙化过程是物种多样性衰减的过程,风沙化首先导致特有种的绝灭,其次为稀有种.从植物的生活型来看,多年生草本与乔木类植物受风沙化影响最大,而灌木类植物可存活于风沙化过程的各个阶段,在风沙化过程中植物种的绝灭速率大于定居速率.最后,针对造成多宝砂山生物多样性衰减的原因,提出了治理对策,即在控制人类行为干扰的同时,要加强对固定沙丘的管理与保护.

鄱阳湖砂山地区地表环境结构与其植物多样性的变化

该文对鄱阳湖砂山地区地表环境结构和土地风沙化过程中物种多样性的变化特征进行了分析,依据植物种在各类型风沙化土地出现的频率与不同风沙化阶段各生活型植物种的组成,探讨了风沙化过程中植物种绝灭与定居的特点.物种多样性指数分析表明:风沙化过程是物种多样性衰减的过程,风沙化首先导致特有种的灭绝,其次为稀有种.从植物的生活型来看,多年生草本与乔木类植物受风沙化影响最大,而灌木类植物可存活风沙化过程各个阶段,在风沙化过程中植物种的绝灭速率大于定居速率.要建立有恢复力的砂山景观生态系统,进行生态重组,既需要在砂山地区内也需要在砂山地区外的生态存储,现实情况也需要这种双重存储的生态学准备.

直立锁边屋面系统风揭破坏全过程试验研究

目前针对金属屋面系统抗风性能的评估有多种试验标准,这不利于结构设计。为此,参考美国ANSI/FM 4474-2004、欧洲ETAG 006:2007和加拿大CSA A123.21-04,对同一型号的直立锁边屋面系统开展了静态抗风揭试验与动态抗风揭试验,得到了屋面系统的破坏形式、承载力和损坏现象等,并进一步比较了试验方法对屋面系统风揭破坏全过程的影响。对比研究表明:试验方法对屋面系统的破坏形式与承载力均有明显影响;在静态加载下屋面系统更容易发生脱扣破坏,而在动态加载下屋面系统则更容易发生撕裂破坏,且同一个荷载等级下循环次数越多,则屋面系统发生撕裂破坏时的荷载值越小,因此,基于所在地区的风荷载特性确定荷载循环至关重要。比较屋面系统风揭破坏过程中出现的损坏现象发现,不同试验方法下屋面系统均出现了接触印痕、抗风夹明显转动、卷边局部分离以及永久塑性变形等损坏现象。因此,可以认为试验方法对屋面系统的风揭破坏过程影响不大。

Precise large deviation result for heavy-tailed random sums and applications to risk theory

The differences between two sequences of nonnegative independent and identically distributed random variables with sub-exponential tails and the random index are studied. The random index is a strictly stationary renewal counting process generated by some negatively associated random variables. Using a revised large deviation result of partial sums, the elementary renewal theorem and the central limit theorem of negatively associated random variables, a precise large deviation result is derived for the random sums. The result is applied to the customer-arrival-based insurance risk model. Some uniform asymptotics for the ruin probabilities of an insurance company are obtained as the number of customers or the time tends to infinity.

Role of Lichens in Weathering and Soil－Forming Pro－cesses in Fildes Peninsula，Antarctic

Lichens play an unparalleledly vital role in weathering and soil-forming processes in Antarctic region. Inthis study some related chemical components and micromorphological analyses have been carried out on thesamples of the weathered rocks and the lichens grown on them from Fildes Peninsula, Antarctic. The resultsindicated that the major chemical components in the bioweathering surface layer of the sampled rocks havebeen obviously altered and the weathering potential in this layer has greatly decreased by an average rangearound 4.66 percent in 4 samples. In the weathering surface layer ferruginmation of some minerals in varyingdegrees was seen by means of microscopic examination through the thin section of the weathered rocks, andits products proved to be dominated by hematite, limonite, goethite and free iron oxides Meanwhile, thestudy suggested that the dissolntion and absorption of lichens by their secretion accelerated the process ofcalcitization of minerals in the bicaweathering surface layer. Eventually, the results aIso show that differentspeciesof lichens play different roles in weathering and soilforming processes.

Model of wind-generated ambient noise in stratified shallow water

In order to build a rapid ocean ambient noise model adapted for a stratified shallow water, a hybrid model of normal mode method (for far field) and ray method (for near field) is suggested which combines the advantages of both methods. Since the near field of wind-generated noise is not sensitive to the sound speed pro- file, the sound speed profile is regarded as a constant; which makes the model rapid and accurate. The simulation results are in agreement with those of the wave model.

Sediment recycling and indication of weathering proxies

As a result of recycling, the mineralogical and chemical compositions of riverine sediments may reflect the combined effects of the present-day weathering regime as well as previous weathering and diagenetic alteration history. River sediments can be interpreted as a mixture of non-weathered bedrock—of igneous, metamorphic, or sedimentary origin—and solids formed by the modern weathering system. The correlation between the weathering proxies chemical index of alteration and weathering index of Parker offers an approach to distinguish fine suspended particles, coarse bedload sediments, and recycled sediments under the influence of quartz dilution. Recycling of cation-depleted source rocks formed during past geological weathering episodes may have great impacts on the weathering indices of sediments from the Changjiang(Yangzte) and Zhuoshui Rivers. Special caution is required when using chemical weathering indices to investigate the intensity of chemical weathering registered in fluvial sediments. To minimize the effect of hydrodynamic sorting or sediment recycling, we suggest that the fine sediments(e.g.suspended particles and ﹤2 lm fractions of bedload sediments) in rivers better reflect the average of weatheredcrust in catchments and the terrigenous end-member in marginal seas.

A CLOUD-RESOLVING MODELING STUDY OF SURFACE RAINFALL PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH LANDFALLING TYPHOON KAEMI(2006)

The detailed surface rainfall processes associated with landfalling typhoon Kaemi（2006） are investigated based on hourly data from a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. The model is integrated for 6 days with imposed large-scale vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal temperature and vapor advection from National Center for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） / Global Data Assimilation System （GDAS） data. The simulation data are validated with observations in terms of surface rain rate. The Root-Mean-Squared （RMS） difference in surface rain rate between the simulation and the gauge observations is 0.660 mm h^-1, which is smaller than the standard deviations of both the simulated rain rate （0.753 mm h^-1） and the observed rain rate （0.833 mm h^-1）. The simulation data are then used to study the physical causes associated with the detailed surface rainfall processes during the landfall. The results show that time averaged and model domain-mean Ps mainly comes from large-scale convergence （QWVF） and local vapor loss （positive QWVT）. Large underestimation （about 15%） of Ps will occur if QWVT and QCM （cloud source/sink） are not considered as contributors to Ps ,QWVF accounts for the variation of P during most of the integration time, while it is not always a contributor to Ps,Sometimes surface rainfall could occur when divergence is dominant with local vapor loss to be a contributor to Ps - Surface rainfall is a result ofmulti-timescale interactions. QWVE possesses the longest time scale and the lowest frequeney the second and QCM of variation with time and may exert impact on P on longer time scales. QWVF possesses longest time scale and lowest frequency and can explain most of the variation of Ps. QWVT possess shorter time scales and higher frequencies, which can explain more detailed variations in Ps. Partitioning analysis shows that stratiform rainfall is dominant from the morning of 26 July till the late night of 27 July. After that, convective rainfall dominates till about 1000 LST 28 July. Before 28 July, the variations of QWVT in rainfall-free regions contribute less to that of the domain-mean QWVT while after that they contribute much, which is consistent to the corresponding variations in their fractional coverage. The variations of QWVF in rainfall regions are the main contributors to that of the domain-mean QWVF, then the main contributors to the surface rain rate before the afternoon of 28 July.

Predict typhoon-induced storm surge deviation in a principal component back-propagation neural network model

To reduce typhoon-caused damages, numerical and empirical methods are often used to forecast typhoon storm surge. However, typhoon surge is a complex nonlinear process that is difficult to forecast accurately. We applied a principal component back-propagation neural network (PCBPNN) to predict the deviation in typhoon storm surge, in which data of the typhoon, upstream flood, and historical case studies were involved. With principal component analysis, 15 input factors were reduced to five principal components, and the application of the model was improved. Observation data from Huangpu Park in Shanghai, China were used to test the feasibility of the model. The results indicate that the model is capable of predicting a 12-hour warning before a typhoon surge.

Spatio-temporal Variation of Wind Erosion in Inner Mongolia of China Between 2001 and 2010

Using Geographic Information System(GIS), based on wind speed, precipitation, topographic, soil, vegetation coverage and land use data of Inner Mongolia between 2001 and 2010, we applied the revised wind erosion equation(RWEQ) model to simulate wind erosion intensity. The results showed that an area of approximately 47.8 × 10~4 km^2 experienced wind erosion in 2010, 23.2% of this erosion could be rated as severe, and 46.0% as moderate. Both the area and the intensity of wind erosion had decreased from 2001 to 2010, the wind erosion area reduced 10.1%, and wind erosion intensity decreased by 29.4%. Precipitation, wind speed, population size and urbanization in rural areas, and gross domestic product of primary industry(GDP1) were the main factors influencing wind erosion. Overall, these factors accounted for 88.8% of the wind erosion. These results indicated that the decrease in wind erosion over the past decade related to the increase in precipitation and the decrease in the number of windy days, while modest urban development and optimization of the economic structure might partially reduced the level of ecological pressure, highlighting the importance of human activities in controlling wind erosion.