风险优属度模型在舰船研制中的应用

引入广义梯形模糊数描述风险等级,增加了评价者的置信度指标。提出由顶点间距和重心间距相结合的综合贴近度概念,合理解决了模糊语言与模糊数的匹配关系。利用乐观指标把风险和风险报酬结合起来,建立基于双理想点的风险优属度模型,克服了传统风险度量模型只考虑风险而不考虑风险报酬的弊端。对几个舰船装备研制方案进行风险分析,MALTLAB仿真计算结果表明,风险优属度模型直接反映出了决策者自身的风险偏好程度,更加符合实际决策过程。

销售渠道风险管理

本文首先建立了一套用以评估销售渠道风险的指标体系,通过建立企业各销售渠道的物元模型,运用物元的可拓性,将销售渠道的建设和管理控制的指标量化,按照统一规范化运算,得出便于比较的优度,从而对各类渠道风险进行排序选择风险最底的渠道。最后,本文以一个算例对评估销售渠道风险模型进行了实证研究。

A New Criterion for Environmental Risk Management of Multiplication Processes

This paper aims to propose ERT （Expected Reaching Time）, a new risk adverse evaluation criterion of finite multiplication processes, and to examine its properties in relation to the dominance criterion. The ERT means the expected time that takes for an objective valiable to reach a target value. To deal with the environmental risk involved in the process, the expectation maximizing strategy may be the most well known. However, for many cases the dominance strategy rather than the expectation maximizing strategy is adopted and works very well. In this paper we first prove rigorously that minimization of the ERT is equivalent to the dominance criterion in the infinite period. Then we demonstrate by simulation that the ERT gives almost equal evaluation as the dominance criterion even for the finite multiplications, after showing that it is approximately proportional to the logarithm of the target value.