少数民族传统村落档案馆档案安全风险治理的方法体系

随着我国民族档案事业步入新时代,少数民族传统村落档案工作在推进当地经济社会发展中的作用日益凸显,与此同时,少数民族传统村落档案馆的档案安全风险治理也提上了日程。文章在对少数民族传统村落档案馆档案安全风险的内涵及其分类加以探讨的基础上,揭示其档案安全风险的有效治理,必须采取各种富有成效的方法。而以风险沿革调查法、风险流程梳理法、风险展示法、风险事故树呈现法等构成的安全风险识别方法,以风险根源分析法、风险几率估量法、风险损失估量法、风险汇聚估量法等构成的安全风险估量方法,以风险回避法、风险限制法、风险搁置法、风险转化法等构成的安全风险抑制方法以及安全风险治理绩效评价方法等共同构成了少数民族传统村落档案馆档案安全风险治理的方法体系。

国际贸易风险度量问题探讨

国际贸易风险度量是国际贸易风险管理的一项重要内容,是防范和抵御国际贸易风险危害的前提。国际贸易风险度量的重点是国际贸易风险的发生概率及其可能的危害程度。本文就国际贸易风险度量的依据、任务、程序、度量结果的效用等问题展开了一些有益的探索。

Climate Change Risk Research: A Case Study on Flood Disaster Risk in China

This paper discusses theories and methods of climate change risk studies for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure, and possibility. Uncertainty, future events, damages, and relativity are the major features of climate change risk. Climate change risk research includes two key steps: risk assessment and risk management, the former is the process, and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change. We present the main framework and methods for climate change risk research. A case study on China's floods risk is taken as an example of climate change risk study. Finally, we point out main aspects of climate change risk research, including ensemble-based probabilistic projection, quantitative risk assessment, risk zoning and mapping, and risk management.

Application of quantification theory in risk assessment of mine flooding

Hundreds of mine flooding accidents have occurred in China since the 1950s. These flooding accidents result in submerged working faces, even entire coal mines, leading to tremendous economic losses. It is reported that among 601 state-owned mines in China, 285 mines are exposed to water-inrush risks. The water pressure is becoming larger and larger with the increase of mining depth, leading to an increase of water-inrush hazards. Only when the risk of mine flooding is predicted in a reasonable manner, can we take timely and effective measures to prevent mine flooding from taking place. In our investigation quantification（H） theory is used to study the risk prediction problem about mine flooding. By investigating the main factors which affect mine flooding, eight risk assessment items have been identified. The extent of risk is classified into 4 grades. Given the data from different periods in the Feicheng mining area, a prediction model for the risk of mine flooding is established. The test analysis indicates a model correlation coefficient of 0.97 and the incidence of discrimination is as high as 97.37%, which implies that the effect of the model is quite satisfactory. With the help of computers, this method can be widely applied.

Corrosion risk assessment of chloride-contaminated concrete structures using embeddable multi-cell sensor system

Monitoring the service condition of concrete structures requires the quantitative assessment of properties and corrosion rate of structural steels surrounded by concrete.A multi-cell sensor system that included a reference electrode,a chloride content sensor,a macrocell current unit and an electrical resistance measurement unit was developed.This system provided the following important electrochemical data in the cover-zone concrete on site:open circuit potential,macrocell current from anodes to cathode,chloride profile,concrete resistance and corrosion rate of built-in anodes.The experimental results show that the macrocell current increases when the chloride content in concrete is higher.Thus,monitoring the chloride content is a good method for monitoring the corrosion state.The chloride ion content and cover depth are the key factors that affect the electrical resistance of concrete.Without considering the temperature and time,a simplified model of the instantaneous corrosion rate of steel rebar in a concrete structure based on the measured chloride contents and concrete resistance was proposed.The test results further prove the reliability of this simplified predicting model.

Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment

Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investment. By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return, together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investment is established. The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.

Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk in Albania

Albania results are a country with high quantitative level of soil erosion in Europe and elsewhere based on different studies. The amount of soil eroded from the surface water erosion is from 20-40 t/ha/year and in extreme cases results up to 100 t/ha/year from the deepest erosion. This preliminary study will identify the more specific places in order to do more details analyses in the future to take protection measures in highly sensitive places with high erosion risk. This will be a quantitative assessment of places with different level of erosion risks. Further on these results will be generalized at the level of main water basins of Albania. The following main elements of soil erosion assessment are evaluated in this study which include the land cover, slope and density of the hydrologic net.

Focus on Undernutrition in Care Homes： A Retrospective Service Evaluation

“Let them eat cake”： a retrospective service evaluation of Focus on Undernutrition in care homes. Introduction： Undernutrition is a major cause and consequence of poor health in older people, affecting 35% of residents in care homes. Focus on Undernutrition （FoU）, a dietetic service delivered by dietetic assistants uses a multifaceted approach to undernutrition management. This study aims to evaluate FoU’s impact on undernutrition outcome measures in care homes; including FoU’s influence on weight change in residents “at risk” of undernutrition, and prevalence of undernutrition and pressure ulcers （PU）. Methods： A retrospective pragmatic service evaluation was undertaken using pseudonymised data collected over 13 years on weight, undernutrition risk and PU from long-stay residents’ notes before and six months after training （FoU）. Results： Analysis completed on 104 homes, 4,315 residents （71.3% female; mean stay 10.8 （1-278） months） in County Durham. Following FoU a significant difference was identified for： improved rate of weight change for “at risk” residents （p 〈 0.001）. Undernutrition risk significantly influenced weight change （low： B1.04 kg, E0.01 kg; moderate： B-1.79 kg, E-0.38 kg; high： B-0.83kg, E1.00 kg, Bp 〈 0.001, Ep = 0.001）. Reduced undernutrition prevalence （p 〈 0.001） from 32.7% to 29.1% residents “at risk” of undernutrition （moderate： B13.1%, E8.9%; high： B19.6%, E15.9%）. Nutrition screening significantly improved （B76.3%, E98.7%, p 〈 0.001）, reduced prevalence PU （51%, p 〈 0.001）. PU prevalence significantly increased with undernutrition severity at baseline （p 〈 0.001）, but not following FoU （p = 0.233） （low： B5%, E2.3%; moderate： B6.9%, E1.6%; high： B10.5%, E3.9%）. Odds of developing PU reduced 53% （OR： 0.47）. B：baseline; E：evaluation; OR： odds ratio. Conclusion： These results demonstrate dietetic assistants delivering FoU significantly improves weight, undernutrition and PU prevalence in care homes. Indicating FoU is an effective model for improving undernutrition outcomes, with the potential of reducing possible harm, such as PU in care homes.

The FAHP-based Risk Assessment in the Conclusion of Equipment Procurement Contract

The risk assessment of contract conclusion is the primary and key part of equipment purchase contract risk management. In this paper, based on the fuzzy characteristics of contract risks, and overcoming the traditional disadvantages of analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （FAHP） of contract conclusion is proposed for meeting the actual need of equipment procurement contract risk assessment, and implementing the risk factors qualitative and quantitative assessments of different working nodes in contract conclusion. Thus, a scientific and reliable important basis is provided for the risk management of equipment procurement contract.

Recognition and Measurement of Losses Caused by Systematic Risk in Damages of False Statements

Based on the single-factor market model, this paper examines the confirmation basis and measurement of the losses arising from systematic risk in the civil damages of false statements. The paper argues that the systematic risk not only affects the investment in securities during times of financial crisis, but also causes losses in daily securities trading. The paper carries out an empirical analysis on the existence of fl coefficient for China＇s listed companies within a period of one year, and examines the impact of systematic risk on the losses of investors. The civil damages of false statements should take full account of the losses arising from systematic risk. After analysis, the paper uses the correlation coefficient to represent the ratio of losses arising from systematic risk of all the transactions of a particular stock during a certain period of time, and tries to develop two methods to measure the damages after adjusting the losses caused by the systematic risk. The paper has a theoretical foundation for the estimation of losses caused by systematic risk, and matches the risks and returns. The result of the paper has provided an effective method of calculation in the determination of reasonable damages in the case of China Langfang Development Co., Ltd.

Risk Evaluation of Workers Exposure to Magnetic Fields in Indoor Distribution Substations

Due to possible health effects of electric and magnetic fields, a directive on minimum health and safety requirements regarding the exposure of workers to electromagnetic fields has been disposed by European Parliament and Council regarding the exposure of workers to electromagnetic fields. This legislation will be nationally implemented in 2012.The aim of this work was to develop a electromagnetic field exposure measurement method and further a magnetic field hazard evaluation method for exposure of workers in indoor medium to low voltage （MV/LV） distribution substations. Magnetic field exposure was also reflected with BS 8800 general risk classification procedure to accomplish specifications to execute magnetic field measurements and carry our risk assessment procedure for working tasks. The risk assessment procedure is based on magnetic field exposure measurements and dosimetric FEM calculations founded on EU Directive 2004/40/EC. According to field measurements action values were exceeded in several working tasks but limit values were not exceeded.

Cost Risk Appraisal： An Application of Project RiskManagement Process in Libyan Construction Projects

Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks that may affect these costs. An implementation of PRM （project risk management） process on regional construction project has been carried out to maximize the likelihood of project meeting its objectives within its constraints. Qualitative and quantitative risk analyses have been carried out. The qualitative analysis is presented in a table that shows top ranked risks in Libyan construction projects based on probability-impact grid technique. In quantitative risk analyses, Mont Carlo simulation technique has been conducted to quantify and evaluate the overall level of risk exposure associated with the project completion cost. A project simulation uses a model that translates cost uncertainties into their potential impact on project objectives. A frequency curve model that represents simulation results of project completion costs has been constructed. The frequency curve model shows all possible outcomes of expected project cost at different probabilities. Project manager or decision maker can select the appropriate project budget. If a probability of 0.95 confident project budget is selected that means cost overrun risk can be minimized to a probability of 0.05. It is very helpful for project manager to take decisions based on information that shows project completion cost and its associated probability rather than usin single information of estimated cost.

Characterization and assessment of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions from typical industries

VOCs play an increasingly important role in affecting air quality and threatening human health in China in recent years,where industry activities show a significant contribution to VOCs emission.In this article we report our long term study of industrial VOCs emissions of six major industries (vehicle manufacturing,printing,equipment coating,electronic manufacturing,furniture manufacturing and bio-pharming) on the aspects of emission characteristics,environmental impact and health risk assessment,and control challenge analysis with the purpose to obtain in-depth understanding of industry VOCs emissions and offer some original basements for national control and management of industry VOCs emissions.This study shows that all these industries give middle or low emission with total VOCs concentration less than 1000 mg/m3 at each exhaust pipe.Benzenes,esters,alcohols,ketones,alkanes,chloroalkanes and alkenes were detected as the major emission components and the most frequently monitored VOCs were benzenes,which varied obviously with different processes and industries.The environmental impact assessments indicate that vehicle manufacturing and benzenes should be prior controlled with the purpose to reduce air pollution.While,health risk assessments suggest that furniture manufacturing and chloroalkanes should be firstly controlled.Control analysis indicates that developing technologies with low cost and high efficiency and establishing and completing specific industry emission standards/regulations are the two key issues in VOCs emission management at present stage.

A comparison of two methods to assess audience-induced changes in male mate choice

Multidirectional communicative interactions in social networks can have a profound effect on mate choice behavior. Male Atlantic molly Poecilia mexicana exhibit weaker mating preferences when an audience male is presented. This could be a male strategy to reduce sperm competition risk： interacting more equally with different females may be advantageous because ri- vals might copy mate choice decisions. In line with this hypothesis, a previous study found males to show a strong audience effect when being observed while exercising mate choice, but not when the rival was presented only before the choice tests. Audience effects on mate choice decisions have been quantified in poeciliid fishes using association preference designs, but it remains un- known if patterns found from measuring association times translate into actual mating behavior. Thus, we created five audience treatments simulating different forms of perceived sperm competition risk and determined focal males＇ mating preferences by scoring pre-mating （nipping） and mating behavior （gonopodial thrusting）. Nipping did not reflect the pattern that was found when association preferences were measured, while a very similar pattern was uncovered in thrusting behavior. The strongest response was observed when the audience could eavesdrop on the focal male＇s behavior. A reduction in the strength of focal males＇ preferences was also seen after the rival male had an opportunity to mate with the focal male＇s preferred mate. In comparison, the reduction of mating preferences in response to an audience was greater when measuring association times than actual mating behavior. While measuring direct sexual interactions between the focal male and both slimulus females not only the male＇s motivational state is reflected but also females＇ behavior such as avoidance of male sexual harassment [Current Zoology 58 （1）： 84-94, 2012].