There are two methods widely used for evaluating the adequacy of Deposit Insurance Fund： （i） Target Reserve Ratio and （ii） Credit Risk Model. Target Reserve Ratio is one of the macro level indicators more often s...There are two methods widely used for evaluating the adequacy of Deposit Insurance Fund： （i） Target Reserve Ratio and （ii） Credit Risk Model. Target Reserve Ratio is one of the macro level indicators more often set by Regulatory act on the basis of minimum Deposit Insurance Fund margin safety, Target Reserve Ratio is calculated as the ratio of Deposit Insurance Fund to the value of insured deposits. However, TRR does not take into consideration the level of Deposit Insurance potential liability, the Loss at Given Default （LGD） and the historical trend of default rate prevailing among the insured banks. It does not also consider the present condition of the economy and current scenario of the banking sector. This paper discusses primarily about development of Credit Risk Model for evaluating the Deposit Insurance Fund Adequacy. For this purpose, Econometric Credit Risk Model was developed based on the historical data of bank failures and the associated losses of the last 25 years from 1990-91 to 2014-15. The model assesses various possible factors impacting the Deposit Insurance Fund： Default rate, Deposit growth, Exposures, impact of macro-economic factors like GDP, GDS, Inflation and Interest rate changes, etc. on the Deposit Insurance Fund through econometric modeling. The model evaluates the adequacy of Deposit Insurance Fund under both （i） Normal scenarios where there is no （economic） systemic risk assumed and （ii） Worst case scenario at 1% level of significance using Monte Carlo Simulation. Since the model empirically validates all the critical factors impacting the assets and liabilities associated with Loss at Given Default, the model output can also be used to determine a suitable Target Reserve Ratio and such models are being used in countries like USA, Canada, Hong Kong, and Singapore, etc. （IADI, 2009）. More importantly, the model outputs are quite useful in determining the adequacy of deposit insurance fund which is an effective risk control measure that organization like Deposit Insurance Credit Guarantee Corporation （DICGC） can adopt both under normal economic scenario as well as worst case scenario, ensuring a strong financial safety net for the banking sector in India. The model also assesses the default probability and the Loss at Given Default of different types of banks： commercial banks, rural banks, cooperative banks, foreign banks, etc. A risk based on premium can possibly be determined for each type of banks in India.展开更多
Social health insurance is an important part of the social security system. It is the ＂stabilizer＂ of social and economic development and the ＂buffer＂ of reform. It is of great significance and function to the con...Social health insurance is an important part of the social security system. It is the ＂stabilizer＂ of social and economic development and the ＂buffer＂ of reform. It is of great significance and function to the construction of economic development, social progrcss and harmonious society. However, due to many factors, the operation of the social health insurance fund is facing greater risk. Although the balance is rich, but the general talk about the ＂balance＂, inevitably fall into the ＂too optimistic, ignore the risk＂ of the errors, the current basic medical insurance system, compared with working employees, retirement elderly people do not pay, personal accounts into more, The overall proportion of individual funds to pay lower policy concessions. Although there is a large amount of surplus in the annual health insurance fund, a large part of the balance is due to the relatively young age structure of the insured population and the low consumption of health insurance funds. With the increasing level of the aging of the insured population, the ratio of on-the-job and the backward is gradually reduced, the effect of these preferential policies will continue to enlarge, making the total fund expenditure increased significantly. Therefore, it is an important task to reform the basic medical insurance system in China to strengthen the research on risk control in the medical insurance fund of urban workers, to prevent and control the risks faced by the fund and to ensure the safety of the fund.展开更多
文摘There are two methods widely used for evaluating the adequacy of Deposit Insurance Fund： （i） Target Reserve Ratio and （ii） Credit Risk Model. Target Reserve Ratio is one of the macro level indicators more often set by Regulatory act on the basis of minimum Deposit Insurance Fund margin safety, Target Reserve Ratio is calculated as the ratio of Deposit Insurance Fund to the value of insured deposits. However, TRR does not take into consideration the level of Deposit Insurance potential liability, the Loss at Given Default （LGD） and the historical trend of default rate prevailing among the insured banks. It does not also consider the present condition of the economy and current scenario of the banking sector. This paper discusses primarily about development of Credit Risk Model for evaluating the Deposit Insurance Fund Adequacy. For this purpose, Econometric Credit Risk Model was developed based on the historical data of bank failures and the associated losses of the last 25 years from 1990-91 to 2014-15. The model assesses various possible factors impacting the Deposit Insurance Fund： Default rate, Deposit growth, Exposures, impact of macro-economic factors like GDP, GDS, Inflation and Interest rate changes, etc. on the Deposit Insurance Fund through econometric modeling. The model evaluates the adequacy of Deposit Insurance Fund under both （i） Normal scenarios where there is no （economic） systemic risk assumed and （ii） Worst case scenario at 1% level of significance using Monte Carlo Simulation. Since the model empirically validates all the critical factors impacting the assets and liabilities associated with Loss at Given Default, the model output can also be used to determine a suitable Target Reserve Ratio and such models are being used in countries like USA, Canada, Hong Kong, and Singapore, etc. （IADI, 2009）. More importantly, the model outputs are quite useful in determining the adequacy of deposit insurance fund which is an effective risk control measure that organization like Deposit Insurance Credit Guarantee Corporation （DICGC） can adopt both under normal economic scenario as well as worst case scenario, ensuring a strong financial safety net for the banking sector in India. The model also assesses the default probability and the Loss at Given Default of different types of banks： commercial banks, rural banks, cooperative banks, foreign banks, etc. A risk based on premium can possibly be determined for each type of banks in India.
文摘Social health insurance is an important part of the social security system. It is the ＂stabilizer＂ of social and economic development and the ＂buffer＂ of reform. It is of great significance and function to the construction of economic development, social progrcss and harmonious society. However, due to many factors, the operation of the social health insurance fund is facing greater risk. Although the balance is rich, but the general talk about the ＂balance＂, inevitably fall into the ＂too optimistic, ignore the risk＂ of the errors, the current basic medical insurance system, compared with working employees, retirement elderly people do not pay, personal accounts into more, The overall proportion of individual funds to pay lower policy concessions. Although there is a large amount of surplus in the annual health insurance fund, a large part of the balance is due to the relatively young age structure of the insured population and the low consumption of health insurance funds. With the increasing level of the aging of the insured population, the ratio of on-the-job and the backward is gradually reduced, the effect of these preferential policies will continue to enlarge, making the total fund expenditure increased significantly. Therefore, it is an important task to reform the basic medical insurance system in China to strengthen the research on risk control in the medical insurance fund of urban workers, to prevent and control the risks faced by the fund and to ensure the safety of the fund.
