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房地产投资贝叶斯风险决策法
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作者 严长万 杨应玖 《水利电力科技》 1995年第4期20-27,共8页
本文首次将贝叶斯概率计算方法应用于房地产投资决策中,提出了房地产投资贝叶斯风险决策法,它对降低决策的风险程度有明显的意义。
关键词 房地产 投资 贝叶斯决策 风险决策法
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新产品开发的风险决策法
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作者 刘清平 吴苏珍 《新产品世界》 1991年第1期42-42,共1页
关键词 新产品开发 风险决策法
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用风险决策方法选择施工导流方案 被引量:9
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作者 王卓甫 《水利学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 1989年第11期28-34,共7页
本文把施工导流工程总费用作为决策目标,承认导流工程可能遇到的风险,用风险决策方法选择施工导流方案。文中并阐述了导流工程中风险概率和风险损失的计算问题。
关键词 施工导流方案 风险决策法
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水资源规划的风险型决策方法及实例 被引量:2
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作者 王建群 叶秉如 《水利学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 1996年第4期73-78,共6页
以水资源系统为背景探讨了有关风险的概念,提出了基于风险的多维度量概念的风险型决策方法.用水资源系统优化规划的实例,验证了所提出的方法.通过实例研究,说明了水资源系统风险型决策方法研究的意义和所提出的求解方法的可行性.
关键词 水资源 规划 风险决策 多目标
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风险决策方法的新思路
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作者 马圣平 《统计与决策》 北大核心 1993年第2期10-12,共3页
本文在理论和实践上都很有意义。在严格的推理之下,给出了口算就能解决问题的风险决策新方法;风险决策问题等效性原理的提出使一切风险决策问题变得豁然开朗。在严格的证明之下给出的风险决策问题的6个重要性质是对风险决策问题更深层... 本文在理论和实践上都很有意义。在严格的推理之下,给出了口算就能解决问题的风险决策新方法;风险决策问题等效性原理的提出使一切风险决策问题变得豁然开朗。在严格的证明之下给出的风险决策问题的6个重要性质是对风险决策问题更深层的认识。从两个最优方案的择优思想,我们看到传统的处理两优方案的方法是很值得反思的。 展开更多
关键词 风险决策法 经济数学
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基于改进期望值决策法的虚拟机可信审计方法 被引量:1
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作者 田俊峰 张永超 《通信学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2018年第6期52-63,共12页
虚拟机运行环境是否可信是云计算推广和有效使用的关键因素,为此将风险决策方法中的期望值决策法加以改进,重新定义了它的使用场景,将审计方案的成本、收益数值化,提出一种基于改进期望值决策法的虚拟机可信审计方法。该方案为用户虚拟... 虚拟机运行环境是否可信是云计算推广和有效使用的关键因素,为此将风险决策方法中的期望值决策法加以改进,重新定义了它的使用场景,将审计方案的成本、收益数值化,提出一种基于改进期望值决策法的虚拟机可信审计方法。该方案为用户虚拟机提供几种安全保护级别,根据用户为虚拟机选用的安全保护级别,自主选取最优的审计方案。采用虚拟机自省(VMI,virtual machine introspection)技术获取需要审计的虚拟机信息;采用设计的加密机制保护用户选用安全保护级别的安全性,从而保证审计方案的安全性。最后,仿真实验结果表明了方案具有较好的性能和有效性。 展开更多
关键词 可信审计 可信计算 风险决策法 虚拟机自省
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Product risk reduction using consensus theory
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作者 Harry Katzan, Jr. 《Chinese Business Review》 2009年第12期36-43,共8页
Product analytics is a blend of computational methods with the express purpose of facilitating the multifaceted process of decision-making based on demographic and consumer preferences. This complex subject is derived... Product analytics is a blend of computational methods with the express purpose of facilitating the multifaceted process of decision-making based on demographic and consumer preferences. This complex subject is derived from consensus theory and includes structured analytics, categories, and the combination of evidence. The methodology is applicable to a wide range of business, economic, social, political, and strategic decisions. The paper describes a product allocation application to demonstrate the conceots. 展开更多
关键词 categorical analysis consensus theory Dempster's rule ANALYTICS Dempster-Shafer theory
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Reformative Financial Risk Management Approach: A Multistage Decision Support System with the Assistance of Fuzzy Goal Programming and Expertons Method
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作者 S.Ceren Oner 《Journal of Mathematics and System Science》 2014年第9期620-636,共17页
The potential demand on financial risk management has being increased considerably by the reason of Basel 11 regulations and instabilities in economy. In recent years, financial institutions and companies have been st... The potential demand on financial risk management has being increased considerably by the reason of Basel 11 regulations and instabilities in economy. In recent years, financial institutions and companies have been struggled for building up intensive financial risk management tools due to Basel II guidance on establishing financial self-assessment systems. In this respect, decision support system has a significant role on effectuating intensive financial risk management roadmap. In this study, a reformative financial risk management system is presented with the combination of determining financial risks with their importance, calculating risk scores and making suggestions based on detected risk scores by applying corrective actions. First, financial risk factors and indicators of these risk variables are selected and weights of these variables are specified by using fuzzy goal programming. After that, total risk scores are calculated and amendatory financial activities are appeared by means of expertons method which also provides possibilities of the alternative decisions. To illustrate the performance of integrated and multistage decision support system, a survey is applied on the end users. 展开更多
关键词 Financial risk management decision support systems fuzzy goal programming expertons method
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A Method for Risky Multiple Attribute Decision Making with Four - dimensional Reference Point
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作者 DUAN Mingyuan YAN Ruixia 《International English Education Research》 2016年第12期22-25,共4页
A method based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed to solve risky multiple attribute decision making problems with Four -dimensional reference points. Considering the influence of different learning processes a... A method based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed to solve risky multiple attribute decision making problems with Four -dimensional reference points. Considering the influence of different learning processes and corresponding features on decision-making, a new reference-learning behavior is added, and a risk-based multiple-attribute decision-making method based on four-dimensional reference point cumulative prospect theory is proposed. Firstly, according to the cumulative prospect theory, the prospect value and the decision function value of the four reference points of learning, time, evaluation value and expected value are calculated respectively, and the cumulative prospect value matrix of each program dynamic is formed. Secondly,according to the WAA operalor, Maximize the stage weighting model to obtain the integrated cumulative prospect value. Finally, on the basis of this, the alternatives are sorted according to the size of the total cumulative prospect value, and compared with other methods, the validity and scientific of the proposed method are proved. 展开更多
关键词 Risk multiple attribute decision making Cumulative Prospect Theory Four-dimensional reference point
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