This paper discusses theories and methods of climate change risk studies for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure, and possibility. Un...This paper discusses theories and methods of climate change risk studies for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure, and possibility. Uncertainty, future events, damages, and relativity are the major features of climate change risk. Climate change risk research includes two key steps: risk assessment and risk management, the former is the process, and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change. We present the main framework and methods for climate change risk research. A case study on China's floods risk is taken as an example of climate change risk study. Finally, we point out main aspects of climate change risk research, including ensemble-based probabilistic projection, quantitative risk assessment, risk zoning and mapping, and risk management.展开更多
In semi arid and arid countries, the increase in production needs sometimes using brackish/saline water for irrigation. In Kairouan and Mahdia （Centre of Tunisia）, most of the irrigated areas are by pumping ground w...In semi arid and arid countries, the increase in production needs sometimes using brackish/saline water for irrigation. In Kairouan and Mahdia （Centre of Tunisia）, most of the irrigated areas are by pumping ground water from wells and in many cases, water has more than 4 g of salt per liter. To improve farmers＇ income through using efficiently brackish/saline and rare water, applied research programme was carried out. The methodology adopted was based on selection of six farmers＇ parcels. Behind water quality and quantity, soil salinity and crop response, the crop cost was studied： initial and final characterization and frequently controlled. Three different water regimes were observed induced three salinity regimes： an exclusively irrigated regime in summer based on using saline water producing continuous accumulation of salts, an irrigated-rained regime in autumn/spring based on alternated saline and fresh water inducing cyclic accumulation and leaching of salts and a rained regime in winter based on fresh water with continuous leaching of salts. At the short term, soil salinity increased under irrigation until equilibrium with the irrigation water quality and decreased by rain which produced an important salts leaching in a very short time. Many tons of salts were added to the initial stock in summer season and most of them are leached to the subsoil under irrigation and by rain in the winter. Salinization affected the deep layer and on the long term, salinization of the aquifer might occur. An important crop yield decrease for the summer crop was obtained but the socio-economic aspect appeared as an important factor conditioning the use of saline water.展开更多
Economic analysis of different diversified rotational cropping systems under Farmers＇ package/practices and improved package/practices was conducted in Birbhum district, West Bengal, located in the red and lateritic ...Economic analysis of different diversified rotational cropping systems under Farmers＇ package/practices and improved package/practices was conducted in Birbhum district, West Bengal, located in the red and lateritic belt of lower Gangetic plain of eastern lndia. Diversified triple cropping systems （peanut-brinjal＋brinjal, rice-potato-pumpkin, and cucumber-cabbage-basella） required higher cost for cultivation, but also produced higher rice equivalent yield, higher net return and higher return rupee1 invested in both management practices. Considering the resource-ability and risk-bearing capacity, and net return and return rupee^-1 （RPR） invested, these cropping systems can be recommended for resource-rich farmers. Rice-rapeseed-cowpea, rice-wheat-green gram and radish-tomato-amaranthus systems profitable. These cropping systems can be required less inputs for cultivation, were less risky, and economically viable and recommended for resource-poor farmers. Peanut-brinjal ＋ brinjal-okra-chilli ＋ chilli-cucumber-cabbage-basella system was the best among all the 3-year rotational systems in respect to RPR in both management practices. This rotational system will be suitable for resource-rich farmers. Vegetable-based rotational systems （ridge gourd-marigold-okra-black gram-pointed gourd ＋ pointed gourd-radish-tomato-amaranthus） or rice-based rotational system （rice-wheat-green gram-rice-rapeseed-cowpea-rice-potato-pumpkin） also found to be suitable to increase the profitability and system sustainability. These cropping systems can be recommended for all groups of farmers.展开更多
Dams are critical and essential elements in any infrastructure and, in front of accidents occurred in many countries, it is extremely important to know the risk of these structures. Inserted in this context, it was fo...Dams are critical and essential elements in any infrastructure and, in front of accidents occurred in many countries, it is extremely important to know the risk of these structures. Inserted in this context, it was found in the technical literature, methods and tools capable of measuring the exposure value by means of indicators. In the study, the highlights were 12 methods of qualitative, semiquantitative and quantitative risk analysis, representing an overview of risk analysis methods available in the literature with potential use in dams, that it has been done into electronic spreadsheets. The case study is performed on a sample of concrete dam and earth/rockfill built and operated by Eletrobr^s Furnas Company, supported by documentary research, projects, field inspections and interviews with experts. After applying the methods and the analysis thereof, has been prepared the Eletrobras Fumas dam risk analysis method which is characterized by adapting the criteria analyzed to the reality of the company＇s dams and it was also performed the portfolio risk analysis of 18 dams. In spite of the variety and subjectivity of qualitative and semiquantitative methods, the results show that they tend to converge on the analysis of dam based on risk. The application methodology demonstrates the feasibility assessment stage, covering the preliminary analysis for portfolio dams, followed by formal and individual risk analyzes for the most critical structures. These results confirm the applicability of risk analysis techniques, contributing to the consolidation of this toot as fundamental in the dam safety.展开更多
This article looks at how population movements are addressed by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR), and highlights some of the potential implications of the SFDRR on disaster risk reduc...This article looks at how population movements are addressed by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR), and highlights some of the potential implications of the SFDRR on disaster risk reduction(DRR) and mobility management work. The article looks at the operational implications of the SFDRR text and covers issues of including migrants in DRR work;informing urban development about current and future mobility trends; managing relocations, evacuations, and displacement to prevent future risks and reduce existing ones; and preparing for and managing disaster-induced population movements to reduce the direct and indirect impacts of natural hazards. Overall, the references to human mobility within the SFDRR show an evolution in the way the issue is considered within global policy dialogues. Both the potential of population movements to produce risk and their role in strengthening the resilience of people and communities are now clearly recognized. This is an evolution of previously prevailing views of mobility as the consequence of disasters or as a driver of risk. While some implications of the DRR-mobility nexus might still be missing from DRR policy, population movements are now recognized as a key global risk dynamic.展开更多
基金supported by National Science and Technology Support Program (No. 2012BAC19B10)Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCXZ-YW-QO3-01)
文摘This paper discusses theories and methods of climate change risk studies for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure, and possibility. Uncertainty, future events, damages, and relativity are the major features of climate change risk. Climate change risk research includes two key steps: risk assessment and risk management, the former is the process, and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change. We present the main framework and methods for climate change risk research. A case study on China's floods risk is taken as an example of climate change risk study. Finally, we point out main aspects of climate change risk research, including ensemble-based probabilistic projection, quantitative risk assessment, risk zoning and mapping, and risk management.
文摘In semi arid and arid countries, the increase in production needs sometimes using brackish/saline water for irrigation. In Kairouan and Mahdia （Centre of Tunisia）, most of the irrigated areas are by pumping ground water from wells and in many cases, water has more than 4 g of salt per liter. To improve farmers＇ income through using efficiently brackish/saline and rare water, applied research programme was carried out. The methodology adopted was based on selection of six farmers＇ parcels. Behind water quality and quantity, soil salinity and crop response, the crop cost was studied： initial and final characterization and frequently controlled. Three different water regimes were observed induced three salinity regimes： an exclusively irrigated regime in summer based on using saline water producing continuous accumulation of salts, an irrigated-rained regime in autumn/spring based on alternated saline and fresh water inducing cyclic accumulation and leaching of salts and a rained regime in winter based on fresh water with continuous leaching of salts. At the short term, soil salinity increased under irrigation until equilibrium with the irrigation water quality and decreased by rain which produced an important salts leaching in a very short time. Many tons of salts were added to the initial stock in summer season and most of them are leached to the subsoil under irrigation and by rain in the winter. Salinization affected the deep layer and on the long term, salinization of the aquifer might occur. An important crop yield decrease for the summer crop was obtained but the socio-economic aspect appeared as an important factor conditioning the use of saline water.
文摘Economic analysis of different diversified rotational cropping systems under Farmers＇ package/practices and improved package/practices was conducted in Birbhum district, West Bengal, located in the red and lateritic belt of lower Gangetic plain of eastern lndia. Diversified triple cropping systems （peanut-brinjal＋brinjal, rice-potato-pumpkin, and cucumber-cabbage-basella） required higher cost for cultivation, but also produced higher rice equivalent yield, higher net return and higher return rupee1 invested in both management practices. Considering the resource-ability and risk-bearing capacity, and net return and return rupee^-1 （RPR） invested, these cropping systems can be recommended for resource-rich farmers. Rice-rapeseed-cowpea, rice-wheat-green gram and radish-tomato-amaranthus systems profitable. These cropping systems can be required less inputs for cultivation, were less risky, and economically viable and recommended for resource-poor farmers. Peanut-brinjal ＋ brinjal-okra-chilli ＋ chilli-cucumber-cabbage-basella system was the best among all the 3-year rotational systems in respect to RPR in both management practices. This rotational system will be suitable for resource-rich farmers. Vegetable-based rotational systems （ridge gourd-marigold-okra-black gram-pointed gourd ＋ pointed gourd-radish-tomato-amaranthus） or rice-based rotational system （rice-wheat-green gram-rice-rapeseed-cowpea-rice-potato-pumpkin） also found to be suitable to increase the profitability and system sustainability. These cropping systems can be recommended for all groups of farmers.
文摘Dams are critical and essential elements in any infrastructure and, in front of accidents occurred in many countries, it is extremely important to know the risk of these structures. Inserted in this context, it was found in the technical literature, methods and tools capable of measuring the exposure value by means of indicators. In the study, the highlights were 12 methods of qualitative, semiquantitative and quantitative risk analysis, representing an overview of risk analysis methods available in the literature with potential use in dams, that it has been done into electronic spreadsheets. The case study is performed on a sample of concrete dam and earth/rockfill built and operated by Eletrobr^s Furnas Company, supported by documentary research, projects, field inspections and interviews with experts. After applying the methods and the analysis thereof, has been prepared the Eletrobras Fumas dam risk analysis method which is characterized by adapting the criteria analyzed to the reality of the company＇s dams and it was also performed the portfolio risk analysis of 18 dams. In spite of the variety and subjectivity of qualitative and semiquantitative methods, the results show that they tend to converge on the analysis of dam based on risk. The application methodology demonstrates the feasibility assessment stage, covering the preliminary analysis for portfolio dams, followed by formal and individual risk analyzes for the most critical structures. These results confirm the applicability of risk analysis techniques, contributing to the consolidation of this toot as fundamental in the dam safety.
文摘This article looks at how population movements are addressed by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR), and highlights some of the potential implications of the SFDRR on disaster risk reduction(DRR) and mobility management work. The article looks at the operational implications of the SFDRR text and covers issues of including migrants in DRR work;informing urban development about current and future mobility trends; managing relocations, evacuations, and displacement to prevent future risks and reduce existing ones; and preparing for and managing disaster-induced population movements to reduce the direct and indirect impacts of natural hazards. Overall, the references to human mobility within the SFDRR show an evolution in the way the issue is considered within global policy dialogues. Both the potential of population movements to produce risk and their role in strengthening the resilience of people and communities are now clearly recognized. This is an evolution of previously prevailing views of mobility as the consequence of disasters or as a driver of risk. While some implications of the DRR-mobility nexus might still be missing from DRR policy, population movements are now recognized as a key global risk dynamic.
