After introducing the supply chain default risk and its causes,based on the literature review of the evaluation methods of supply chain risks,a new evaluation method called the fuzzy influence diagram which combines f...After introducing the supply chain default risk and its causes,based on the literature review of the evaluation methods of supply chain risks,a new evaluation method called the fuzzy influence diagram which combines fuzzy sets with influence diagram theory and considers the interaction among risk factors is proposed.Furthermore,an evaluation model of the supply chain default risk is established based on the research of default risk evaluation and the fuzzy influence diagram.First,the model takes the loss of risk as a valuable node,risk factors as random nodes,drawing a risk analysis influence diagram.Then,three kinds of fuzzy sets are defined,including state fuzzy sets,probabilistic fuzzy sets and a relation fuzzy matrix.Finally,by using the fuzzy algorithm to evaluate nodes,the probability of risk occurrence and the degrees of risk loss are obtained.On the basis of the model,an instance application is used to prove its utility and effectiveness.展开更多
A risk assessment method for marine configuration based on Fuzzy Probability Influence Diagram （FPID） and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis （FMEA） is established in this paper. Considering the fuzzy characteristic ...A risk assessment method for marine configuration based on Fuzzy Probability Influence Diagram （FPID） and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis （FMEA） is established in this paper. Considering the fuzzy characteristic of the two key inputs such as event happening probability and relation probability, the method induces fuzzy probability into the PID risk assessment for marine configuration, where defuzzification is performed using the centroid method to determine the risk at a given grade of a probabilistic item. FMEA as a traditional qualitative analysis method is used to determine the effect factor structure. An application of the presented method for the offshore jacket platform is implemented. The method can be widely applicable although only offshore platform is analyzed here.展开更多
VOCs play an increasingly important role in affecting air quality and threatening human health in China in recent years,where industry activities show a significant contribution to VOCs emission.In this article we rep...VOCs play an increasingly important role in affecting air quality and threatening human health in China in recent years,where industry activities show a significant contribution to VOCs emission.In this article we report our long term study of industrial VOCs emissions of six major industries (vehicle manufacturing,printing,equipment coating,electronic manufacturing,furniture manufacturing and bio-pharming) on the aspects of emission characteristics,environmental impact and health risk assessment,and control challenge analysis with the purpose to obtain in-depth understanding of industry VOCs emissions and offer some original basements for national control and management of industry VOCs emissions.This study shows that all these industries give middle or low emission with total VOCs concentration less than 1000 mg/m3 at each exhaust pipe.Benzenes,esters,alcohols,ketones,alkanes,chloroalkanes and alkenes were detected as the major emission components and the most frequently monitored VOCs were benzenes,which varied obviously with different processes and industries.The environmental impact assessments indicate that vehicle manufacturing and benzenes should be prior controlled with the purpose to reduce air pollution.While,health risk assessments suggest that furniture manufacturing and chloroalkanes should be firstly controlled.Control analysis indicates that developing technologies with low cost and high efficiency and establishing and completing specific industry emission standards/regulations are the two key issues in VOCs emission management at present stage.展开更多
This paper extends the model and analysis of Lin, Tan and Yang （2009）. We assume that the financial market follows a regime-switching jump-diffusion model and the mortality satisfies Levy process. We price the point...This paper extends the model and analysis of Lin, Tan and Yang （2009）. We assume that the financial market follows a regime-switching jump-diffusion model and the mortality satisfies Levy process. We price the point to point and annual reset EIAs by Esscher transform method under Merton＇s assumption and obtain the closed form pricing formulas. Under two cases： with mortality risk and without mortality risk, the effects of the model parameters on the EIAs pricing are illustrated through numerical experiments.展开更多
基金The National Key Technology R&D Program of China during the 11th Five-Year Plan Period(No.2006BAH02A06)
文摘After introducing the supply chain default risk and its causes,based on the literature review of the evaluation methods of supply chain risks,a new evaluation method called the fuzzy influence diagram which combines fuzzy sets with influence diagram theory and considers the interaction among risk factors is proposed.Furthermore,an evaluation model of the supply chain default risk is established based on the research of default risk evaluation and the fuzzy influence diagram.First,the model takes the loss of risk as a valuable node,risk factors as random nodes,drawing a risk analysis influence diagram.Then,three kinds of fuzzy sets are defined,including state fuzzy sets,probabilistic fuzzy sets and a relation fuzzy matrix.Finally,by using the fuzzy algorithm to evaluate nodes,the probability of risk occurrence and the degrees of risk loss are obtained.On the basis of the model,an instance application is used to prove its utility and effectiveness.
文摘A risk assessment method for marine configuration based on Fuzzy Probability Influence Diagram （FPID） and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis （FMEA） is established in this paper. Considering the fuzzy characteristic of the two key inputs such as event happening probability and relation probability, the method induces fuzzy probability into the PID risk assessment for marine configuration, where defuzzification is performed using the centroid method to determine the risk at a given grade of a probabilistic item. FMEA as a traditional qualitative analysis method is used to determine the effect factor structure. An application of the presented method for the offshore jacket platform is implemented. The method can be widely applicable although only offshore platform is analyzed here.
基金supported by the Team Interaction and Cooperation of the Science and Technology Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciencesthe Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-YW-JS402)+4 种基金the National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB732300)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Science(XDB05050200)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(2012AA063101)the Program of Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning(2012A014)Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation(8112015)
文摘VOCs play an increasingly important role in affecting air quality and threatening human health in China in recent years,where industry activities show a significant contribution to VOCs emission.In this article we report our long term study of industrial VOCs emissions of six major industries (vehicle manufacturing,printing,equipment coating,electronic manufacturing,furniture manufacturing and bio-pharming) on the aspects of emission characteristics,environmental impact and health risk assessment,and control challenge analysis with the purpose to obtain in-depth understanding of industry VOCs emissions and offer some original basements for national control and management of industry VOCs emissions.This study shows that all these industries give middle or low emission with total VOCs concentration less than 1000 mg/m3 at each exhaust pipe.Benzenes,esters,alcohols,ketones,alkanes,chloroalkanes and alkenes were detected as the major emission components and the most frequently monitored VOCs were benzenes,which varied obviously with different processes and industries.The environmental impact assessments indicate that vehicle manufacturing and benzenes should be prior controlled with the purpose to reduce air pollution.While,health risk assessments suggest that furniture manufacturing and chloroalkanes should be firstly controlled.Control analysis indicates that developing technologies with low cost and high efficiency and establishing and completing specific industry emission standards/regulations are the two key issues in VOCs emission management at present stage.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.10971068 and 11231005)Shanghai Municipal Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 12ZR1408300)+3 种基金Humanity and Social Science Youth Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. 12YJC910006)Doctoral Program Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. 20110076110004)Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (Grant No. NCET-09-0356)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
文摘This paper extends the model and analysis of Lin, Tan and Yang （2009）. We assume that the financial market follows a regime-switching jump-diffusion model and the mortality satisfies Levy process. We price the point to point and annual reset EIAs by Esscher transform method under Merton＇s assumption and obtain the closed form pricing formulas. Under two cases： with mortality risk and without mortality risk, the effects of the model parameters on the EIAs pricing are illustrated through numerical experiments.
