目的探究食管鳞状上皮内瘤变发生风险的预测因素,构建列线图预测模型。方法回顾性收集2016年01月至2021年12月在扬州大学附属医院诊断为食管鳞状上皮内瘤变患者126例,以及同期于健康管理中心进行体检者344例,收集患者一般临床资料、血...目的探究食管鳞状上皮内瘤变发生风险的预测因素,构建列线图预测模型。方法回顾性收集2016年01月至2021年12月在扬州大学附属医院诊断为食管鳞状上皮内瘤变患者126例,以及同期于健康管理中心进行体检者344例,收集患者一般临床资料、血常规检测、肿瘤标志物、病变资料。确定食管鳞状上皮内瘤变的独立预测因子,构建列线图预测模型、绘制受试者操作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线,计算得出Harrell一致性指数(C-index)并采用Bootstrap自抽样法,对模型进行内部验证并绘制校准曲线及决策曲线。结果为构建食管上皮内瘤变的风险预测模型,经PSM法匹配后,本研究共纳入96例食管鳞状上皮内瘤变患者及96例健康对照。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,血红蛋白(HGB)计数、血小板(PLT)计数、血小板分布宽度(PDW)、NLR水平是食管鳞状上皮内瘤变的独立预测因子。根据以上四项指标构建的列线图模型曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)为0.787。Bootstrap内部验证的C-index值为0.771,提示该食管鳞状上皮内瘤变风险预测模型的识别能力、一致性和临床净获益良好。结论基于HGB、PLT、PDW及NLR建立的列线图预测模型可有效鉴别有无食管鳞状上皮内瘤变病变人群,对诊断食管癌前病变有辅助价值。展开更多
Background: Oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSC- C) is a common cancer worldwide and has a very high mortality rate. Squamous dysplasia is the precursor lesion for OSCC and it can be seen during routine endoscopy...Background: Oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSC- C) is a common cancer worldwide and has a very high mortality rate. Squamous dysplasia is the precursor lesion for OSCC and it can be seen during routine endoscopy with Lugol’s iodine staining. We aimed to examine the risk factors for squamous dysplasia and determine if a risk model could be constructed which would be useful in selecting apparently healthy subjects for endoscopic screening in a high risk population in Linzhou, People’s Republic of China. Subjects and methods: In this cross sectional study, 724 adult volunteers aged 40-65 years were enrolled. All subjects completed a questionnaire regarding potential environmental exposures, received physical and dental examinations, and underwent upper endoscopy with Lugol’s iodine staining and biopsy. Subjects were categorised as having or not having histologically proven squamous dysplasia/ early cancer. Risk factors for dysplasia were examined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The utility of the final multivariate model as a screening tool was assessed using a receiver operating characteristics curve. Results: We found that 230 of 720 subjects (32%) with complete data had prevalent squamous dysplasia. In the final multivariate model, more household members (odds ratio (OR) 1.12/member (95%confidence interval (CI) 0.99, 1.25)), a family history of cancer (OR 1.57 (95%CI 1.13-2.18)), higher systolic blood pressure OR 1.11/10 mm Hg (95%CI 1.03-1.19)), heating the home without a chimney (OR 2.22 (95%CI 1.27-3.86)), and having lost more but not all of your teeth (OR 1.91 for 12-31 teeth lost (95%CI 1.17-3.15))were associated with higher odds of having dysplasia. Higher household income (OR 0.96/100 RMB (95%CI 0.91-1.00)) was associated with a lower odds of having dysplasia. Although we found several statistically significant associations, the final model had little ability to accurately predict dysplasia status, with maximum simultaneous sensitivity and specificity values of 57%and 54%, respectively. Conclusions: We found that risk factors for dysplasia were similar to those previously identified as risk factors for OSCC in this population. The final model did a poor job of identifying subjectswho had squamous dysplasia. Other methodswill need to be developed to triage individuals to endoscopy in this high risk population.展开更多
Background & Aims: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma remains a leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Squamous dysplasia, the accepted histological precursor for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, represents a...Background & Aims: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma remains a leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Squamous dysplasia, the accepted histological precursor for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, represents a potentially modifiable intermediate end point for chemoprevention trials in high-risk populations. Methods: We conducted a randomized, controlled trial of selenomethionine 200 μ g daily and/or celecoxib 200 mg twice daily (2 × 2 factorial design) among residents of Linxian, People’s Republic of China. Subjects had histologically confirmed mild or moderate esophageal squamous dysplasia at baseline. Esophagogastroduodenoscopy was performed before and after a 10- month intervention. Per-subject change (regression, stable, or progression) in the worst dysplasia grade was defined as the primary end point. Results were compared by agent group (selenomethionine vs placebo; celecoxib vs placebo). Results: Two hundred sixty-seven subjects fulfilled all eligibility criteria, and 238 (89% ) completed the trial. Overall, selenomethionine resulted in a trend toward increased dysplasia regression (43% vs 32% ) and decreased dysplasia progression (14% vs 19% ) compared with no selenomethionine (P = .08). In unplanned stratified analyses, selenomethionine favorably affected a change in dysplasia grade among 115 subjects with mild esophageal squamous dysplasia at baseline (P = .02), but not among 123 subjects with moderate esophageal squamous dysplasia at baseline (P = 1.00). Celecoxib status did not influence changes in dysplasia grade overall (P = .78) or by baseline histology subgroup. Conclusions: After a 10- month intervention, neither selenomethionine nor celecoxib inhibited esophageal squamous carcinogenesis for all high-risk subjects. However, among subjects with mild esophageal squamous dysplasia at baseline, selenomethionine did have a protective effect. Although it is based on unplanned stratified analyses, this finding is the first report of a possible beneficial effect for any candidate esophageal squamous cell carcinoma chemo-preventive agent in a randomized controlled trial.展开更多
文摘目的探究食管鳞状上皮内瘤变发生风险的预测因素,构建列线图预测模型。方法回顾性收集2016年01月至2021年12月在扬州大学附属医院诊断为食管鳞状上皮内瘤变患者126例,以及同期于健康管理中心进行体检者344例,收集患者一般临床资料、血常规检测、肿瘤标志物、病变资料。确定食管鳞状上皮内瘤变的独立预测因子,构建列线图预测模型、绘制受试者操作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线,计算得出Harrell一致性指数(C-index)并采用Bootstrap自抽样法,对模型进行内部验证并绘制校准曲线及决策曲线。结果为构建食管上皮内瘤变的风险预测模型,经PSM法匹配后,本研究共纳入96例食管鳞状上皮内瘤变患者及96例健康对照。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,血红蛋白(HGB)计数、血小板(PLT)计数、血小板分布宽度(PDW)、NLR水平是食管鳞状上皮内瘤变的独立预测因子。根据以上四项指标构建的列线图模型曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)为0.787。Bootstrap内部验证的C-index值为0.771,提示该食管鳞状上皮内瘤变风险预测模型的识别能力、一致性和临床净获益良好。结论基于HGB、PLT、PDW及NLR建立的列线图预测模型可有效鉴别有无食管鳞状上皮内瘤变病变人群,对诊断食管癌前病变有辅助价值。
文摘Background: Oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSC- C) is a common cancer worldwide and has a very high mortality rate. Squamous dysplasia is the precursor lesion for OSCC and it can be seen during routine endoscopy with Lugol’s iodine staining. We aimed to examine the risk factors for squamous dysplasia and determine if a risk model could be constructed which would be useful in selecting apparently healthy subjects for endoscopic screening in a high risk population in Linzhou, People’s Republic of China. Subjects and methods: In this cross sectional study, 724 adult volunteers aged 40-65 years were enrolled. All subjects completed a questionnaire regarding potential environmental exposures, received physical and dental examinations, and underwent upper endoscopy with Lugol’s iodine staining and biopsy. Subjects were categorised as having or not having histologically proven squamous dysplasia/ early cancer. Risk factors for dysplasia were examined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The utility of the final multivariate model as a screening tool was assessed using a receiver operating characteristics curve. Results: We found that 230 of 720 subjects (32%) with complete data had prevalent squamous dysplasia. In the final multivariate model, more household members (odds ratio (OR) 1.12/member (95%confidence interval (CI) 0.99, 1.25)), a family history of cancer (OR 1.57 (95%CI 1.13-2.18)), higher systolic blood pressure OR 1.11/10 mm Hg (95%CI 1.03-1.19)), heating the home without a chimney (OR 2.22 (95%CI 1.27-3.86)), and having lost more but not all of your teeth (OR 1.91 for 12-31 teeth lost (95%CI 1.17-3.15))were associated with higher odds of having dysplasia. Higher household income (OR 0.96/100 RMB (95%CI 0.91-1.00)) was associated with a lower odds of having dysplasia. Although we found several statistically significant associations, the final model had little ability to accurately predict dysplasia status, with maximum simultaneous sensitivity and specificity values of 57%and 54%, respectively. Conclusions: We found that risk factors for dysplasia were similar to those previously identified as risk factors for OSCC in this population. The final model did a poor job of identifying subjectswho had squamous dysplasia. Other methodswill need to be developed to triage individuals to endoscopy in this high risk population.
文摘Background & Aims: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma remains a leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Squamous dysplasia, the accepted histological precursor for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, represents a potentially modifiable intermediate end point for chemoprevention trials in high-risk populations. Methods: We conducted a randomized, controlled trial of selenomethionine 200 μ g daily and/or celecoxib 200 mg twice daily (2 × 2 factorial design) among residents of Linxian, People’s Republic of China. Subjects had histologically confirmed mild or moderate esophageal squamous dysplasia at baseline. Esophagogastroduodenoscopy was performed before and after a 10- month intervention. Per-subject change (regression, stable, or progression) in the worst dysplasia grade was defined as the primary end point. Results were compared by agent group (selenomethionine vs placebo; celecoxib vs placebo). Results: Two hundred sixty-seven subjects fulfilled all eligibility criteria, and 238 (89% ) completed the trial. Overall, selenomethionine resulted in a trend toward increased dysplasia regression (43% vs 32% ) and decreased dysplasia progression (14% vs 19% ) compared with no selenomethionine (P = .08). In unplanned stratified analyses, selenomethionine favorably affected a change in dysplasia grade among 115 subjects with mild esophageal squamous dysplasia at baseline (P = .02), but not among 123 subjects with moderate esophageal squamous dysplasia at baseline (P = 1.00). Celecoxib status did not influence changes in dysplasia grade overall (P = .78) or by baseline histology subgroup. Conclusions: After a 10- month intervention, neither selenomethionine nor celecoxib inhibited esophageal squamous carcinogenesis for all high-risk subjects. However, among subjects with mild esophageal squamous dysplasia at baseline, selenomethionine did have a protective effect. Although it is based on unplanned stratified analyses, this finding is the first report of a possible beneficial effect for any candidate esophageal squamous cell carcinoma chemo-preventive agent in a randomized controlled trial.
