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我国饲料粮供需结构变动的影响因素分析 被引量:2
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作者 刘晓玉 《饲料研究》 CAS 北大核心 2024年第7期178-182,共5页
加强饲料粮供给是稳定饲料粮市场供需、推动畜牧业高质量发展的重要抓手。文章基于2006年1月—2022年12月饲料粮供需结构月度数据样本,采用VAR模型对我国饲料粮供需结构展开实证分析。结果发现,玉米供给量对饲料粮供需结构变动的影响最... 加强饲料粮供给是稳定饲料粮市场供需、推动畜牧业高质量发展的重要抓手。文章基于2006年1月—2022年12月饲料粮供需结构月度数据样本,采用VAR模型对我国饲料粮供需结构展开实证分析。结果发现,玉米供给量对饲料粮供需结构变动的影响最明显,城乡居民畜产品消费量次之,稻谷供给量最低。从供给视角分析,饲料粮供需结构变动的主要影响因素包括玉米供给量、豆粕供给量、高粱供给量、小麦供给量。从需求视角分析,城乡居民畜产品消费量是影响饲料粮供需结构变动的主要因素。从突发事件视角分析,自然灾害风险指数并非是饲料粮供需结构变动的格兰杰原因。在忽略其他因素影响情况下,自然灾害风险指数对7周后饲料粮供需结构变动影响贡献率为23.62%。研究表明,饲料粮供需结构变动主要受到玉米供给量、城乡居民畜产品消费量、豆粕供给量、高粱供给量、小麦供给量、自然灾害风险等因素影响。 展开更多
关键词 饲料供需 VAR模型 玉米供给量 城乡居民畜产品消费量
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2000—2020年中国青饲料播种面积及其供需驱动因素的时空格局
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作者 杨彤 赵雯莉 +6 位作者 董金玮 李愈哲 李之超 王洁 齐雯丽 毕健 张戈丽 《地理学报》 EI CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2024年第7期1804-1823,共20页
高产、优质的青饲料对于国家畜牧业发展和食物供给至关重要。然而,当前对于青饲料播种面积时空变化格局及其阶段性特征、区域差异以及影响因素等尚未清楚。本文基于省级面板数据分析了2000—2020年青饲料种植的时空格局变化,结合MODIS-... 高产、优质的青饲料对于国家畜牧业发展和食物供给至关重要。然而,当前对于青饲料播种面积时空变化格局及其阶段性特征、区域差异以及影响因素等尚未清楚。本文基于省级面板数据分析了2000—2020年青饲料种植的时空格局变化,结合MODIS-NPP产品和统计数据,揭示了饲料供给与需求对青饲料播种面积的影响。结果表明:①2020年中国青饲料播种面积为2199×10^(3)hm^(2),仅占农作物播种面积的1.3%,其中牧业地区占全国的59%。②2000年以来青饲料播种面积经历了快速增长(2000—2003年,464.2×10^(3)hm^(2)/a)、快速下降(2004—2009年,-399×10^(3)hm^(2)/a)和缓慢增长(2010—2020年,64.3×10^(3)hm^(2)/a)3个时期。牧业地区主导了全国青饲料播种面积的变化。③饲料供需因素最多可以解释92%的青饲料播种面积变化。其中,饲料需求每增加1万t,青饲料播种面积最高增加900 hm^(2)。秸秆草饲料产量与青饲料互为补充,以负效应为主(偏回归系数介于-1.2~-0.5之间)。天然草饲料产量则对青饲料播种面积变化影响较小。此外,生态工程和农业政策等因素通过调控奶业、草牧业和种植业对青饲料播种面积的变化有重要影响。本文结果可为制定粮食安全、生态环境保护和作物结构调整等相关政策措施提供科学支持。 展开更多
关键词 饲料 时空格局 播种面积 饲料供需 中国
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饲料生产问题与种植业体系改革 被引量:2
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作者 胡耀高 陈阜 朱文珊 《中国农学通报》 CSCD 1995年第1期10-13,共4页
本文首先从饲料生产的地位、我国现阶段饲料供需平衡状况两方面进行了分析,指出面对新的挑战,必需对我国现行种植业体系进行改革。文章指出改革包括四个方面,分别为:① 突破传统观念,建立新型种植业体系;② 拓宽农作地范围,扩大种植业... 本文首先从饲料生产的地位、我国现阶段饲料供需平衡状况两方面进行了分析,指出面对新的挑战,必需对我国现行种植业体系进行改革。文章指出改革包括四个方面,分别为:① 突破传统观念,建立新型种植业体系;② 拓宽农作地范围,扩大种植业生产场所;③完善饲料作物体系,丰富种植业生产内容;④ 正确确立饲料科学学科位置,尽快健全农学学科体系。 展开更多
关键词 种植业体系 饲料作物 养殖业 饲料供需平衡
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Assessment of Feed Supply and Demand for Livestock in Pakistan
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作者 Ghulam Habib Muhammad Fatah Ullah Khan +1 位作者 Shahbaz Javaid Muhammad Saleem 《Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology(A)》 2016年第3期191-202,共12页
Country level assessment of feed supply and demand for livestock in Pakistan was conducted for the year 2013. Availability of feed ingredients was calculated from the official crop production statistics using publishe... Country level assessment of feed supply and demand for livestock in Pakistan was conducted for the year 2013. Availability of feed ingredients was calculated from the official crop production statistics using published harvest index and extraction ratios, and their nutrient supply was estimated from local feed composition tables. Feed requirements of livestock species were calculated from the standard tables published by US National Research Council. The results showed that indigenous feed resources were short for livestock and poultry requirements. The supply and demand gap for dry biomass, crude protein (CP) and metabolizable energy (ME) were 19.4%, 37.2% and 38.0%, respectively. Crop residues were the predominant source comprising 58.8% of the total feed supply, while fodder and grazing shared 23.8% and 9.2%, respectively. Grains and by-products contributed 8.2% to the feed supply. In attempt to fill this gap, large quantities of oilseed meals were imported mainly for the poultry sector. Maize was the major feed grain used in poultry and ruminant rations, and they together consumed 79% of the country's total maize produce. Based on the anticipated rapid expansion in poultry, dairy and feedlot farming in Pakistan, the feed gap will further enlarge and this warrants future focus on efficient and intensive utilization of the local conventional and nonconventional feed resources. The data and information presented in this paper provided a sound basis for regular updating in future to attain sustainable growth of livestock sector in the country. 展开更多
关键词 Livestock feed resource feed inventory feed demand feed adequacy Pakistan.
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Supply and Demand Levels for Livestock and Poultry Products in the Chinese Mainland and the Potential Demand for Feed Grains 被引量:14
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作者 HUANG Shaolin LIU Aimin +1 位作者 LU Chunxia MA Beibei 《Journal of Resources and Ecology》 CSCD 2020年第5期475-482,共8页
The widening gap between the supply and demand levels for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland poses a significant challenge to the secure supply of feed grains. Therefore, the accurate prediction of... The widening gap between the supply and demand levels for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland poses a significant challenge to the secure supply of feed grains. Therefore, the accurate prediction of the demand potential for feed grains represents a key scientific issue for ensuring food security in the Chinese mainland. This study is based on an analysis of several factors, such as the Chinese mainland’s output, trade volume, apparent consumption of livestock and poultry products, and two different scenarios for predicting the future demand for feed grains are assessed. The results indicate that output and consumption of livestock and poultry products, as well as the country’s trade deficit and the pressure of the supply and demand balance with respect to these products, have been increasing in recent years. The analysis predicts that the demand for feed grains in the Chinese mainland will reach 425.5 or 389.6 million tons in 2030 based on the two scenarios. This finding indicates that with the increasing demand for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland, the demand for feed grains will continue to increase, and the shortfall in feed grains and raw materials will expand further, especially dependence on external sources of protein-rich feed grains will remain high. 展开更多
关键词 livestock and poultry products changes in supply and demand feed grains demand prediction the Chinese mainland
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