Grey theory is a multidisciplinary and generic theory to cope with systems of poor or deficient information. We proposed in this paper an improved grey method (GM) to overcome the disadvantages of the general GM(1,1)....Grey theory is a multidisciplinary and generic theory to cope with systems of poor or deficient information. We proposed in this paper an improved grey method (GM) to overcome the disadvantages of the general GM(1,1). In the improved GM(1,1), a new background value formula is deduced and Markov-chain sign estimation is imbedded into the residual modification model. We tested the efficiency and accuracy of our model by applying it to the power demand forecasting in Taiwan. Experimental results demonstrate the new method has obviously a higher prediction accuracy than the general model.展开更多
The remain passenger problem at subway station platform was defined initially,and the period variation of remain passenger queues at platform was investigated through arriving and boarding analyses.Taking remain passe...The remain passenger problem at subway station platform was defined initially,and the period variation of remain passenger queues at platform was investigated through arriving and boarding analyses.Taking remain passenger queues at platform as dynamic stochastic process,a new probabilistic queuing method was developed based on probabilistic theory and discrete time Markov chain theory.This model can calculate remain passenger queues while considering different directions.Considering the stable or variable train arriving period and different platform crossing types,a series of model deformation research was carried out.The probabilistic approach allows to capture the cyclic behavior of queues,measures the uncertainty of a queue state prediction by computing the evolution of its probability in time,and gives any temporal distribution of the arrivals.Compared with the actual data,the deviation of experimental results is less than 20%,which shows the efficiency of probabilistic approach clearly.展开更多
In agriculture, chemical insecticides are widely used to protect crops from insect pests. Over a period of years, some insects such as Colorado potato beetle （CPB） succeed in developing resistance to most of the reg...In agriculture, chemical insecticides are widely used to protect crops from insect pests. Over a period of years, some insects such as Colorado potato beetle （CPB） succeed in developing resistance to most of the registered chemical insecticides. Consequently, heavy applications of chemical insecticides to control this pest become ineffective on a long-term basis and can lead to serious health and environmental problems. The use of natural enemies to control CPB is an interesting alternative to chemical means However, hand release of predators is not feasible on a large scale in the field. The main objective of this research study was to design and build a test bench to investigate the technical feasibility of mechanically releasing predators. The test bench consisted of a vertical chain conveyor mounted on two vertical shafts driven by an electric motor. Since the predators are small and fragile, they were placed in a specially designed container to preserve their physical integrity. Trials using this test bench showed that a carrier material was required, because most of the predators remained inside the container. The success of this mass predator release system will be highly valuable for the biological control of insect pests in many crops.展开更多
文摘Grey theory is a multidisciplinary and generic theory to cope with systems of poor or deficient information. We proposed in this paper an improved grey method (GM) to overcome the disadvantages of the general GM(1,1). In the improved GM(1,1), a new background value formula is deduced and Markov-chain sign estimation is imbedded into the residual modification model. We tested the efficiency and accuracy of our model by applying it to the power demand forecasting in Taiwan. Experimental results demonstrate the new method has obviously a higher prediction accuracy than the general model.
基金Project(2011BAG01B01) supported by the Major State Basic Research and Development Program of ChinaProject(RCS2012ZZ002) supported by the State Key Lab of Rail Traffic Control and Safety,China
文摘The remain passenger problem at subway station platform was defined initially,and the period variation of remain passenger queues at platform was investigated through arriving and boarding analyses.Taking remain passenger queues at platform as dynamic stochastic process,a new probabilistic queuing method was developed based on probabilistic theory and discrete time Markov chain theory.This model can calculate remain passenger queues while considering different directions.Considering the stable or variable train arriving period and different platform crossing types,a series of model deformation research was carried out.The probabilistic approach allows to capture the cyclic behavior of queues,measures the uncertainty of a queue state prediction by computing the evolution of its probability in time,and gives any temporal distribution of the arrivals.Compared with the actual data,the deviation of experimental results is less than 20%,which shows the efficiency of probabilistic approach clearly.
文摘In agriculture, chemical insecticides are widely used to protect crops from insect pests. Over a period of years, some insects such as Colorado potato beetle （CPB） succeed in developing resistance to most of the registered chemical insecticides. Consequently, heavy applications of chemical insecticides to control this pest become ineffective on a long-term basis and can lead to serious health and environmental problems. The use of natural enemies to control CPB is an interesting alternative to chemical means However, hand release of predators is not feasible on a large scale in the field. The main objective of this research study was to design and build a test bench to investigate the technical feasibility of mechanically releasing predators. The test bench consisted of a vertical chain conveyor mounted on two vertical shafts driven by an electric motor. Since the predators are small and fragile, they were placed in a specially designed container to preserve their physical integrity. Trials using this test bench showed that a carrier material was required, because most of the predators remained inside the container. The success of this mass predator release system will be highly valuable for the biological control of insect pests in many crops.
