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马尔可夫概型分析方法在肇庆市旱涝预测中的应用 被引量:2
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作者 周静 周雁翎 +2 位作者 李厚伟 肖智 魏进才 《广东气象》 2012年第1期51-52,55,共3页
根据肇庆市1970~2008年降水资料,采用马尔可夫概型分析方法,对肇庆市历年旱涝情况进行分析,并按规定标准将其分为干旱(A)、正常(B)和洪涝(C)3种状态,计算其转移概率,进而对肇庆地区2009~2010年的降水情况加以预报,经检验效果较为理想... 根据肇庆市1970~2008年降水资料,采用马尔可夫概型分析方法,对肇庆市历年旱涝情况进行分析,并按规定标准将其分为干旱(A)、正常(B)和洪涝(C)3种状态,计算其转移概率,进而对肇庆地区2009~2010年的降水情况加以预报,经检验效果较为理想。在此基础上,尝试对2011年的情况进行预测。 展开更多
关键词 气候学 马尔可夫概型分析 旱涝预测 肇庆市
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马尔可夫概型分析在春季10mm降水预测中的应用
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作者 鄢志宇 杨桂娟 《安徽农业科学》 CAS 北大核心 2010年第20期10778-10779,共2页
根据锦州地区1960~2007年4月下旬~5月上旬日降水资料,应用马尔可夫概型分析方法,建立春季10mm以上有利春播降水预测模型,通过对4月下旬、5月上旬日降水资料将降水分为有和无2种状态,计算各状态转移概率并对未来时刻的降水状态进行预... 根据锦州地区1960~2007年4月下旬~5月上旬日降水资料,应用马尔可夫概型分析方法,建立春季10mm以上有利春播降水预测模型,通过对4月下旬、5月上旬日降水资料将降水分为有和无2种状态,计算各状态转移概率并对未来时刻的降水状态进行预测。结果表明,从1997~2008年预测效果检验来看,其正确率达58%。马尔可夫概型分析应用在春季10mm降水预测中是一种简单而有效的方法。 展开更多
关键词 马尔可夫概型分析 春季10mm降水 预测
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烃源岩生烃量的概率统计方法 被引量:1
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作者 王跃文 卢双舫 《大庆石油学院学报》 CAS 北大核心 2005年第6期11-13,共3页
研究了反映与烃源岩生烃相关的地质参数的不确定性及在一定勘探风险约束下确定生烃量的概率统计方法.对烃源岩有机质生烃的相关参数做马尔可夫概型分析,根据参数的概型分布特征及在原始数据的约束下随机抽样,用抽样数据模拟计算生烃量;... 研究了反映与烃源岩生烃相关的地质参数的不确定性及在一定勘探风险约束下确定生烃量的概率统计方法.对烃源岩有机质生烃的相关参数做马尔可夫概型分析,根据参数的概型分布特征及在原始数据的约束下随机抽样,用抽样数据模拟计算生烃量;经过多次抽样模拟计算,统计生烃量的概率分布规律,得到在不同概率下的生烃量.与确定性评价结果相比,用化学动力学方法和模拟实验法计算的生烃量分别对应着用概率统计法得到的75%和100%的概率,即从风险角度分析,有75%的把握相信区内的生烃量不会小于化学动力学方法的评价结果,而区内的生烃量不会小于模拟实验的评价结果. 展开更多
关键词 烃源岩 生烃量 率统计 马尔可夫概型分析 模拟计算
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矿产资源形势分析与预测的理论与方法 被引量:1
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作者 王震声 奚文光 《矿业快报》 2006年第7期5-8,共4页
结合矿产资源形势分析与预测的基本理论,综合介绍了目前比较流行的几种分析与预测的方法,旨在为政府和企业提供预测方法和决策依据,以促进资源的合理开发和利用。
关键词 矿产资源 分析与预测 回顾分析 马尔可夫概型 灰色系统 时间序列
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Performance analysis of optical burst switching node with limited wavelength conversion capabilities 被引量:1
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作者 许毅 史开源 范戈 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2009年第5期794-801,共8页
The systematical and scalable frameworks were provided for estimating the blocking probabilities under asynchronous traffic in optical burst switching(OBS) nodes with limited wavelength conversion capability(LWCC) . T... The systematical and scalable frameworks were provided for estimating the blocking probabilities under asynchronous traffic in optical burst switching(OBS) nodes with limited wavelength conversion capability(LWCC) . The relevant system architectures of limited range and limited number of wavelength converters(WCs) deployed by a share-per-fiber(SPF) mode were developed,and the novel theoretical analysis of node blocking probability was derived by combining the calculation of discouraged arrival rate in a birth-death process and two-dimensional Markov chain model of SPF. The simulation results on single node performance verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the analysis models. Under most scenarios,it is difficult to distinguish the plots generated by the analysis and simulation. As the conversion degree increases,the accuracy of the analysis model worsens slightly. However,the utmost error on burst loss probability is far less than one order of magnitude and hence,still allows for an accurate estimate. Some results are of actual significance to the construction of next-generation commercial OBS backbones. 展开更多
关键词 optical burst switching (OBS) limited range wavelength conversion (LRWC) wavelength converter burst contention burst loss probability
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A novel dynamic call admission control policy for wireless network 被引量:1
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作者 黄国盛 陈志刚 +2 位作者 李庆华 赵明 郭真 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2010年第1期110-116,共7页
To address the issue of resource scarcity in wireless communication, a novel dynamic call admission control scheme for wireless mobile network was proposed. The scheme established a reward computing model of call admi... To address the issue of resource scarcity in wireless communication, a novel dynamic call admission control scheme for wireless mobile network was proposed. The scheme established a reward computing model of call admission of wireless cell based on Markov decision process, dynamically optimized call admission process according to the principle of maximizing the average system rewards. Extensive simulations were conducted to examine the performance of the model by comparing with other policies in terms of new call blocking probability, handoff call dropping probability and resource utilization rate. Experimental results show that the proposed scheme can achieve better adaptability to changes in traffic conditions than existing protocols. Under high call traffic load, handoff call dropping probability and new call blocking probability can be reduced by about 8%, and resource utilization rate can be improved by 2%-6%. The proposed scheme can achieve high source utilization rate of about 85%. 展开更多
关键词 wireless network call admission control quality of service Markov decision process
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An Intelligent Web Pre-fetching Based on Hidden Markov Model
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作者 许欢庆 金鑫 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2004年第1期46-50,共5页
Web pre-fetching is one of the most popular strategies, which are proposed for reducing the perceived access delay and improving the service quality of web server. In this paper, we present a pre-fetching model based ... Web pre-fetching is one of the most popular strategies, which are proposed for reducing the perceived access delay and improving the service quality of web server. In this paper, we present a pre-fetching model based an the hidden Markov model, which mines the later information requirement concepts that the user's access path contains and makes semantic-based pre-fetching decisions. Experimental results show that our schcme has better predictive pre-fetching precision. 展开更多
关键词 web pre-fetching hidden Markov model information requirement concept
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Reservation-based dynamic admission control scheme for wideband code division multiple access systems
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作者 A.Y.Al-nahari S.A.El-Dolil +1 位作者 M.I.Dessouky F.E.Abd El-Samie 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第2期393-401,共9页
Call admission control (CAC) and resource reservation (RR) for mobile communication are two important factors that guarantee system efficiency and quality of service (QoS) required for different services in a very sca... Call admission control (CAC) and resource reservation (RR) for mobile communication are two important factors that guarantee system efficiency and quality of service (QoS) required for different services in a very scarce resource as the radio spectrum. A new scheme was proposed which extends the concepts of resource sharing and reservations for wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA) systems with a unique feature of soft capacity. Voice and data traffic were considered. The traffic is further classified into handoff and new requests. The reservation thresholds were dynamically adjusted according to the traffic pattern and mobility prediction in order to achieve the maximum channel utilization, while guaranteeing different QoS constraints. The performance of proposed scheme was evaluated using Markov models. New call blocking probability, handoff call dropping probability, and channel utilization were used as benchmarks for the proposed scheme. 展开更多
关键词 admission control resource reservation wideband code division multiple access resource utilization
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THE TRANSITION PROBABILITY MATRIX OF A MARKOV CHAIN MODEL IN AN ATM NETWORK 被引量:2
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作者 YUEDequan ZHANGHuachen TUFengsheng 《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 SCIE EI CSCD 2003年第4期506-512,共7页
In this paper we consider a Markov chain model in an ATM network, which has been studied by Dag and Stavrakakis. On the basis of the iterative formulas obtained by Dag and Stavrakakis, we obtain the explicit analytica... In this paper we consider a Markov chain model in an ATM network, which has been studied by Dag and Stavrakakis. On the basis of the iterative formulas obtained by Dag and Stavrakakis, we obtain the explicit analytical expression of the transition probability matrix. It is very simple to calculate the transition probabilities of the Markov chain by these expressions. In addition, we obtain some results about the structure of the transition probability matrix, which are helpful in numerical calculation and theoretical analysis. 展开更多
关键词 markov chain transition probability MATRIX ATM network.
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A generalized Markov chain model based on generalized interval probability 被引量:6
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作者 XIE FengYun WU Bo +1 位作者 HU YouMin WANG Yan 《Science China(Technological Sciences)》 SCIE EI CAS 2013年第9期2132-2136,共5页
In the traditional Markov chain model (MCM), aleatory uncertainty because of inherent randomness and epistemic uncertainty due to the lack of knowledge are not differentiated. Generalized interval probability provides... In the traditional Markov chain model (MCM), aleatory uncertainty because of inherent randomness and epistemic uncertainty due to the lack of knowledge are not differentiated. Generalized interval probability provides a concise representation for the two kinds of uncertainties simultaneously. In this paper, a generalized Markov chain model (GMCM), based on the generalized interval probability theory, is proposed to improve the reliability of prediction. In the GMCM, aleatory uncertainty is represented as probability; interval is used to capture epistemic uncertainty. A case study for predicting the average dynamic compliance in machining processes is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed GMCM. The results show that the proposed GMCM has a better prediction performance than that of MCM. 展开更多
关键词 UNCERTAINTY generalized interval probability generalized Markov chain model (GMCM) PREDICTION
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