珠江流域洪水予报模式

江河水情予报、对生产和人民财产息息相关,党和政府历来十分重视,多年以来,水情予报取得很大成绩,但予报方法很值得研究。目前,予报方案仍采用传统的合成流量法,该法方案是以手工定线,误差大,往往凭藉经验,运用所谓“神仙数”去进行予报。由于水情千变万化,单凭经验既不科学也不可靠。近年来我国引进了许多予报的数学模型,诸如华水蓄满产流模型、“坦克”模型等等,取得一定的成效。本文着重介绍用多元线性回归方程模式方案。

Effect of annealing temperature on martensitic transformation of Ti_(49.2)Ni_(50.8) alloy processed by equal channel angular pressing

The effect of annealing temperature on the martensitic transformation of a Ti49.2Ni50.8 alloy processed by equal channel angular pressing （ECAP） was investigated by X-ray diffraction （XRD）, transmission electron microscopy （TEM） and differential scanning calorimetry （DSC）. The as-ECAP processed and subsequently annealed Ti49.2Ni50.8 alloys consist of B2 parent phase, Ti4Ni2O phase and B19′ martensite at room temperature. Upon cooling, all samples show B2→R→B19′ two-stage transformation. Upon heating, when the annealing temperature is less than 400℃, the samples show B19′→R→B2 two-stage transformation; when the annealing temperature is higher than 500 ℃, the samples show B19′→B2 single-stage transformation. The B2-R transformation is characterized by wide interval due to the dislocations introduced during ECAP.

Comparison of the Effects of H_2O_2 and Salicylic Acid on Alternative Respiratory Pathway in Aged Potato Tuber Slices

The influences of exogenous H 2O 2 and salicylic acid (SA) treatments on the alternative respiratory pathway (ARP) in aged potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) tuber slices were compared. The results showed that both H 2O 2(5.0 mmol/L) and SA (0.1 mmol/L) treatments had a significant inducing effect on ARP capacity (V alt ) and its ratio to total respiration (V alt /V t) in potato slices aged for 24 h. With a monoclonal antibody against the alternative oxidase (AOX), Western blotting results showed that both H 2O 2 and SA treatments increased the AOX expression levels in aged potato tuber slices. However, the results of oxygen isotope discrimination experiments showed that H 2O 2 had no influence on the in vivo ARP activity (ρV alt ) and its contribution to V t(expressed as ρV alt /V t) in potato slices aged for 24 h, but SA had a significant influence on the ρV alt and ρV alt /V t values of the aged potato tuber slices. These results indicate that there are differences between the effects of H 2O 2 and SA on ARP in plant tissues. Both of them possess the ability to induce ARP capacity through inducing AOX expression. However, SA can simultaneously stimulate the operation of ARP, but H 2O 2 can not.

Suppression of Speckle in SAR Images Using Wavelet-Based HMM

In order to suppress the speckle appearing in synthesis aperture radar (SAR) images, a novel speckle reduction method based on wavelet domain hidden Markov tree (HMT) was proposed. First, the image was logarithmic transformed to change the statistical property of the speckles. Then an HMT was constructed in the correspondent wavelet domain. Based on this model, the image signal was restored by maximum likelihood estimation and speckle noise was suppressed. Simulating SAR images had shown that the performance of the filter is satisfactory for both speckle smoothing and edges presentation, and for generating visually natural images as well.

Fast ray tracing method in 3-D structure and its proof of positive definiteness

Based on Fermat’s principle, two-point ray tracing method was studied in three-dimensional structure. By means of first order Taylor’s incomplete series expansion (i.e. no expansion to the length of the ray), a symmetry block tridiagonal matrix equation set was deduced. Further, the positive definiteness of coefficient matrix was discussed, and the positive definiteness was accurately proved in a mathematical way. It assured that the algorithm was well-posed. Associated with iterative method, the solution to ray tracing can be got through step-by-step linearized iteration of the nonlinear problem. An algorithm of the whole path iterative ray tracing method in three-dimensional velocity structure was obtained. This method shows a clear and simple as well as explicit computation formula, which makes ray tracing computation easily applicable in practice. The correction vector is obtained through finding the solution to the positive definite block tridiagonal equation set, which ensures the method is robust convergence. This study offers a new kind of feasible and efficient ray tracing method for three dimensional seismic migration and tomography. Meanwhile, it also provides the prerequisite guarantee to design a fast algorithm.

Infiltration Study for Urban Soil： Case Study of Sungai Kedah Ungauged Catchment

The DID （Department of Irrigation and Drainage） in Malaysia has produced a manual on urban stromwater management specifically for the Malaysia region with usage of infiltration method towards controlling the quantity and quality of surface runoff. With this method, the volume of surface runoff can be reduced and flood problems in major cities can be eliminated. The study areas of Sungai Kedah ungauged catchment are located at the northern region of Malaysia. The Kota Setar sub-catchment is located at the downstream of Sungai Kedah with the newly completed development of control barrage at the upper Kota Setar. This paper will describe the analyses of the infiltration curves at Kota Setar. The resulting infiltration maps have developed based on the infiltration capacities.

Implications of Climate Change on Streamflow of a Snow-Fed River System of the Northwest Himalaya

Air temperature and snow cover variability are sensitive indicators of climate change. This study was undertaken to forecast and quantify the potential streamflow response to climate change in the Jhelum River basin. The implications of air temperature trends （＋0.11℃decade） reported for the entire north-west Himalaya for past century and the regional warming （＋0.7℃/decade） trends of three observatories analyzed between last two decades were used for future projection of snow cover depletion and stream flow. The streamflow was simulated and validated for the year 2007-2008 using snowmelt runoff model （SRM） based on in-situ temperature and precipitation with remotely sensed snow cover area. The simulation was repeated using higher values of temperature and modified snow cover depletion curves according to the assumed future climate. Early snow cover depletion was observed in the basin in response to warmer climate. The results show that with the increase in air temperature, streamfiow pattern of Jhelum will be severely affected. Significant redistribution of streamflow was observed in both the scenarios. Higher discharge was observed during spring-summer months due to early snowmelt contribution with water deficit during monsoon months. Discharge increased by 5%-40% during the months of March to May in 2030 and 2050. The magnitude of impact of air temperature is higher in the scenario-2 based on regional warming. The inferences pertaining to change in future streamflow pattern can facilitate long term decisions and planning concerning hydro-power potential, waterresource management and flood hazard mapping in the region.

Hydrological Response to Environment Change in Himalayan Watersheds: Assessment from Integrated Modeling Approach

Land use changes such as deforestation,increase in cropping or grazing areas and built-up land, likely modify the water balance and land surface behavior in the Himalayan watersheds.An integrated approach of hydrological and hydraulic modeling was adopted for comparative analysis of hydrological pattern in three Himalayan watersheds i.e.Khanpur,Rawal and Simly situated in the Northern territory of Pakistan.The rainfall-runoff model SWAT- Soil and water assessment tool and Hydro CAD were calibrated for the selected watersheds.The correlation analysis of the precipitation data of two climate stations i.e.Murree and Islamabad, with the discharge data of three rivers was utilized to select best suitable input precipitation data for Hydro CAD rainfall-runoff modeling.The peak flood hydrograph were generated using Hydro CAD runoff to optimize the basin parameters like CN, runoff volume, peak flows of the three watersheds.The hydrological response of the Rawal watershed was studied as a case study to different scenarios of land use change using SWAT model.The scenario of high deforestation indicated a decline of about 6.3% in the groundwater recharge tostream while increase of 7.1% in the surface runoff has been observed under the scenario of growth in urbanization in the recent decades.The integrated modeling approach proved helpful in investigating the hydrological behavior under changing environment at watershed level in the Himalayan region.

Snow Cover Variation and Streamflow Simulation in a Snow-fed River Basin of the Northwest Himalaya

Snowmelt is an important component of any snow-fed river system.The Jhelum River is one such transnational mountain river flowing through India and Pakistan.The basin is minimally glacierized and its discharge is largely governed by seasonal snow cover and snowmelt.Therefore,accurate estimation of seasonal snow cover dynamics and snowmeltinduced runoff is important for sustainable water resource management in the region.The present study looks into spatio-temporal variations of snow cover for past decade and stream flow simulation in the Jhelum River basin.Snow cover extent(SCE) was estimated using MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) sensor imageries.Normalized Difference Snow Index(NDSI) algorithm was used to generate multi-temporal time series snow cover maps.The results indicate large variation in snow cover distribution pattern and decreasing trend in different sub-basins of the Jhelum River.The relationship between SCE-temperature,SCE-discharge and discharge-precipitation was analyzed for different seasons and shows strong correlation.For streamflow simulation of the entire Jhelum basin Snow melt Runoff Model(SRM) used.A good correlation was observed between simulated stream flow and in-situ discharge.The monthly discharge contribution from different sub-basins to the total discharge of the Jhelum River was estimated using a modified version of runoff model based on temperature-index approach developed for small watersheds.Stream power - an indicator of the erosive capability of streams was also calculated for different sub-basins.

Study of Choked Flows through a Convergent Nozzle

When sonic nozzles of significantly smaller diameter are used as standard flow meters,the critical back pressure ratio is affected by the boundary layer at the nozzle throat.However,the effect of the boundary layer on choking criteria is still controversial.Then,the choking phenomenon of a convergent nozzle flow has been experimentally investigated using four convergent nozzles with the same diameter followed by a straight pipe of a variable length.As a result,it is shown that the critical back pressure ratio is smaller than that for the steady one-dimensional is-entropic flow and decreases as the boundary layer thickness increases.Moreover,the main flow Mach number at the nozzle exit is supersonic when the back pressure ratio is equivalent to the choking condition,and the Mach number increases as the boundary layer thickness increases.

Conceptual study of lunar-based SAR for global change monitoring

As an active microwave remote sensing imaging sensor, Synthetic Aperture Radar(SAR) plays an important role in earth observation. Here we establish a SAR system based on the platform of the moon. This will aid large-scale, constant, and long-term dynamic Earth observations to better meet the needs of global change research and to complement the space borne and airborne earth observations. Lunar-based SAR systems have the characteristics of high resolution and wide swath width. The swath width could be thousands of kilometers in the stripe mode and it could cover 40% of earth's surface with 10 meters or even higher spatial resolution in the scanning mode. Using the simplified observation model, here we quantitatively analyze the spatial resolution and coverage area of lunar-based SAR and simulate the observation on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and the Amazon plain. The results show that this system could provide near 100% daily coverage of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, whereas 40% to 70% daily coverage of the Amazon plain. Lunar-based SAR could provide large-scale, long-term and stable time series data in order to support future research of global change.

Injustice in Primitive Accumulation and Its Linearity： China＇s Alternative Path

Primitive accumulation refers to during industrialization. This article argues that the early phase of development this Marxist concept implicates a deeper notion of injustice, which contains logic of linearity that can be further dissected into a trichotomous part worthy of our discussion, namely, temporal ordering, harsh treatment, and inhumane consequences. This ＂linearity＂ as assumed in this concept, nevertheless, was not unchallenged in history. As a matter of fact, in Mao＇s era, China deliberately sought an alternative path to the capitalist mode by attending to social welfare, physical well-being and rights protection for workers. This part of history is well worth re-investigation and re-interpretation.