英国CRU高分辨率格点资料揭示的近百年来青藏高原气温变化

利用英国East Anglia大学CRU高分辨率地面温度格点资料和EOF,REOF及线性趋势等方法,分析了青藏高原地面温度的时空分布特征及近百年来的变化趋势.结果表明:空间一致性是高原气温空间结构的主要特征,除此之外,高原气温在空间分布上还存在东西、南北反相结构.利用方差最大化旋转可将高原气温变化分为高原中部区、西部区、北部区、南部区及东部区.近百年来高原气温处于上升通道,气候倾向率约为0.07℃/10 a,经历了四次冷暖交替的时期:1901-1930年为冷期;1931-1950年为暖期,气温显著升高;1950年开始一直到1980年前后,高原气温总体变化比较平稳;而从1980年至今,高原的气温都处于快速上升的通道.高原气温的变化主要以准60年周期为主,同时还有30年准周期振荡,存在多个突变点.高原各个区域近百年来气温都处于上升状态,青藏高原中部区气候倾向率达0.065℃/10 a,西部区上升趋势最显著,气候倾向率达0.128℃/10 a,北部区为0.108°/10 a,南部区为0.015°/10 a,东部区为0.022℃/10 a,且大部分区域都通过α=0.01的信度检验.各区域有不同的温度变化特征,中部区和北部区相似,而东部区正负交替比较频繁.

青藏高原气温与印度洋海温遥相关的初步研究

利用1960—2000年青藏高原54个常规气象观测站的年平均地面气温资料,考察了高原气温的空间分布和气候变异特征;利用同期印度洋海温资料和奇异值分解方法,着重研究了青藏高原气温与印度洋海温之间的遥相关关系,并初步探讨了物理机制问题。分析结果表明:在空间分布上,青藏高原气温中部低,四周高,41年来呈逐步上升趋势,振幅不断加大;高原气温与印度洋海温之间存在显著的主要遥相关模态,这与印度洋海温异常激发遥相关波列影响到高原气温有关。

末次间冰期以来北大西洋深层海温与青藏高原气温的千年尺度位相关系及其演变

采用代用资料研究了北大西洋深层海温和青藏高原气温自末次间冰期以来在千年尺度上的位相关系及其变化.通过对比分析和小波交叉谱分析表明,自末次间冰期以来二者同位相和反位相关系交替出现,同位相的持续时间相对较短,而反位相的持续时间较长,并且二者同位相和反位相关系的转换在间冰期比在冰期频繁,北大西洋深层海温与青藏高原气温的位相关系大体被北大西洋气温(格陵兰冰芯氧同位素)与青藏高原气温所验证.此外,北大西洋海表温度可能是北大西洋深层海温在千年尺度上影响青藏高原气温的一个重要因子.

玉树地区24 h最高、最低气温预报指标研究

由于青藏高原天气的复杂性和特殊的地理环境,且受限于站点建设分布,各家模式对青海的预报准确率偏低,其中玉树地区的可预报性最低,参考性最差。近年来,玉树地区的预报准确率也一直偏低,人工订正能力有限,因此,为提高本地预报的准确率,开展了本地化客观预报方法研究。

基于ECC方法的青藏高原冬季气温可预报性研究

选取前期9、6和3个月欧亚大陆地表温度、东北半球500 h Pa高度场、热带印度洋海表面温度和西太平洋海表面温度作为预报因子,使用变形的典型相关分析(BP-CCA)方法,并选取各因子预报效果最好的时期作为关键时期,建立起各因子和青藏高原冬季气温之间的统计降尺度模型。之后用交叉验证和集合典型相关分析(ECC)方法评估模型实际预报能力。进一步用独立样本检验来评估模型更长时间尺度的年际变化预测效果。结果表明,BP-CCA方法能很好地识别出不同因子影响青藏高原的空间模态。其中,温度积雪反照率的正反馈机制体现了欧亚大陆地表温度的可预报性;东北半球500 h Pa高度场环流型不利于高纬的冷空气入侵高原地区;热带印度洋海表面温度反映出典型的印度洋偶极子对高原气温的调控作用;西太平洋海表面温度通过控制副热带高压的位置,从而影响高原冬季气温。各因子预报场和观测场的相关系数在交叉检验和独立样本检验中分别约为0.5和0.3,均有一定的预报技巧。而利用ECC方法能综合各因子所提供的预报信息,从而得出更为可信和稳定的预报。

青藏高原热力状况与四川盆地汛期降水的联系

应用高原积雪日数和高原气温、四川盆地逐月降水量资料，应用ＳＶＤ等方法，探讨高原热力状况分布异常与四川盆地汛期降水分布的联系。分析结果表明，高原积雪日数场分布特征是以巴颜喀拉山和念青唐古拉山为中心。该区域冬季积雪日数异常与川中盆地汛期干旱有相当好的联系。春季青藏高原北部和祁连山的温度场的大范围异常则与川西的洪涝和川东的干旱均有较好的相关，均可作为四川降水长期预报综合考虑的重要参考因子。一般而言，积雪日数对降水的影响时间长于温度，可能与积雪融化和雪水向土壤的渗透等产生较长时间的滞后效应有关，因而对大气环流和四川降水的影响时段较长。其中与８月份降水的相关超过整个汛期。

地球变暖原因大可成疑——唐代气温可能比现在高

地球变暖原因何在,目前未有定论。不少人认为工业革命以来人类排放的温室气体令地球暖化,人类是地球变暖的罪魁祸首,这一说法值得商榷。

青藏高原独特的自然环境和富饶的自然资源

我国西南边疆的青藏高原,是地球上海拔最高、面积最大的高原,号称“世界屋脊”。海拔一般在四千米以上,面积大约占我国陆地面积的四分之一。它具有十分独特的自然环境和富绕的自然资源。因此,对科学研究提出了一系列的课题。比如,高原的自然条件与资源有什么特点?应该如何合理利用和改造?等等。这些问题的解决不仅对社会主义建设事业有重要的意义,而且对于发展我国科学也会做出很大贡献。 中国科学院青藏高原综合科学考察队从一九七三年起,在高原南部开展了比较全面的、

Effects of Elevated Air Temperatures on Soil Thermal and Hydrologic Processes in the Active Layer in an Alpine Meadow Ecosystem of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

In this study,effects of elevated air temperatures on thermal and hydrologic process of the shallow soil in the active layer were investigated. Open-top chambers(OTCs)were utilized to increase air temperatures 1-2℃ in OTC-1 and 3-5℃ in OTC-2 in the alpine meadow ecosystem on the Qinghai- Tibetan Plateau.Results show that the annual air temperatures under OTC-1 and OTC-2 were 1.21℃ and 3.62℃ higher than the Control,respectively.The entirely-frozen period of shallow soil in the active layer was shortened and the fully thawed period was prolonged with temperature increase.The maximum penetration depth and duration of the negative isotherm during the entirely-frozen period decreased, and soil freezing was retarded in the local scope of the soil profile when temperature increased.Meanwhile, the positive isotherm during the fully-thawed period increased,and the soil thawing was accelerated.Soil moisture under different manipulations decreased with the temperature increase at the same depth. During the early freezing period and the early fully- thawed period,the maximum soil moisture under the Control manipulation was at 0.2 m deep,whereas under OTC-1 and OTC-2 manipulations,the maximum soil moisture were at 0.4-0.5 m deep. These results indicate that elevated temperatures led to a decrease of the moisture in the surface soil.The coupled relationship between soil temperature and moisture was significantly affected by the temperature increase.During the freezing and thawing processes, the soil temperature and moisture under different manipulations fit the regression model given by the equationθV=a/{1+exp[b(TS+c)]}+d.

Effect of Altitude and Latitude on Surface Air Temperature across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The correlation between mean surface air temperature and altitude is analyzed in this paper based on the annual and monthly mean surface air temperature data from 106 weather stations over the period 1961-2003 across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results show that temperature variations not only depend on altitude but also latitude, and there is a gradual decrease in temperature with the increasing altitude and latitude. The overall trend for the vertical temperature lapse rate for the whole plateau is approximately linear. Three methods, namely multivariate composite analysis, simple correlation and traditional stepwise regression, were applied to analyze these three correlations. The results assessed with the first method are well matched to those with the latter two methods. The apparent mean annual near-surface lapse rate is -4.8 ℃ /km and the latitudinal effect is -0.87 ℃ /°latitude. In summer, the altitude influences the temperature variations more significantly with a July lapse rate of -4.3℃/km and the effect of latitude is only -0.28℃ /°latitude. In winter, the reverse happens. The temperature decrease is mainly due to the increase in latitude. The mean January lapse rate is -5.0℃/km, while the effect of latitude is -1.51℃ /°latitude. Comparative analysis for pairs of adjacent stations shows that at a small spatial scale the difference in altitude is the dominant factor affecting differences in mean annual near-surface air temperature, aided to some extent bydifferences of latitude. In contrast, the lapse rate in a small area is greater than the overall mean value for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau （5 to 13℃ /km）. An increasing trend has been detected for the surface lapse rate with increases in altitude. The temperature difference has obvious seasonal variations, and the trends for the southern group of stations （south of 33 o latitude） and for the more northerly group are opposite, mainly because of the differences in seasonal variation at low altitudes. For yearly changes, the temperature for high-altitude stations occurs earlier clearly. Temperature datasets at high altitude stations are well-correlated, and those in Nanjing were lagged for 1 year but less for contemporaneous correlations. The slope of linear trendline of temperature change for available years is clearly related to altitude, and the amplitude of temperature variation is enlarged by high altitude. The change effect in near-surface lapse rate at the varying altitude is approximately 1.0℃ /km on the rate of warming over a hundred-year period.

Changes of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Hengduan Mountains,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 1961-2008

Variations and trends in extreme climate events are more sensitive to climate change than the mean values, and so have received much attention. In this study, twelve indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipita- tion extremes at 32 meteorological stations in Hengduan Mountains were examined for the period 1961-2008. The re- suits reveal statistically significant increases in the temperature of the warmest and coldest nights and in the frequen- cies of extreme warm days and nights. Decreases of the diurnal temperature range and the numbers of frost days and ice days are statistically significant. Regional averages of growing season length also display the trends consistent and significant with warming. At a large proportion of the stations, patterns of temperature extremes are consistent with warming since 1961： warming trends in minimum temperature indices are greater than those relating to maximum temperature. As the center of the Shaluli Mountain, the warming magnitudes decrease from inner to outer. Changes in precipitation extremes is low： trends are difficult to detect against the larger inter-annual and decadal-scale variability of precipitation, and only the wet day precipitation and the regional trend in consecutive dry days are significant at the 0.05 level. It can be concluded that the variation of extreme precipitation events is not obvious in the Hengduan Mountains, however, the regional trends generally decrease from the south to the north. Overall, the spatial distribution of temporal changes of all extreme climate indices in the Hengduan Mountains illustrated here reflects the climatic complexity in mountainous regions.

Variations in the northern permafrost boundary over the last four decades in the Xidatan region, Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The distribution and variations of permafrost in the Xidatan region, the northern permafrost boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, were examined and analyzed using ground penetrating radar(GPR), borehole drilling, and thermal monitoring data. Results from GPR profiles together with borehole verification indicate that the lowest elevation limit of permafrost occurrence is 4369 m above sea level in 2012. Compared to previous studies, the maximal rise of permafrost limit is 28 m from 1975 to 2012. The total area of permafrost in the study region has been decreased by 13.8%. One of the two previously existed permafrost islands has disappeared and second one has reduced by 76% in area during the past ~40 years. In addition, the ground temperature in the Xidatan region has increased from 2012 to 2016, with a mean warming rate of ~0.004℃ a^(-1) and ~0.003℃ a^(-1) at the depths of 6 and 15 m, respectively. The rising of permafrost limit in the Xidatan region is mainly due to globalwarming. However, some non-climatic factors such as hydrologic processes and anthropic disturbances have also induced permafrost degradation. If the air temperature continues to increase, the northern permafrost boundary in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau may continue rising in the future.

Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Variations of Monthly Mean Surface Air Temperature over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The recorded meteorological data of monthly mean surface air temperature from 72 meteorological stations over the Qinghal-Tibet Plateau in the period of 1960-2003 have been analyzed by using Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） method, to understand the detailed features of its temporal and spatial variations. The results show that there was a high consistency of the monthly mean surface air temperature, with a secondarily different variation between the north and the south of the plateau. Warming trend has existed at all stations since the 1960s, while the warming rates were different in various zones. The source regions of big rivers had intense warming tendency. June, November and December were the top three fast-warming months since the 1960s; while April, July and September presented dramatic warming tendency during the last decade.

Assessment of Snow Cover Vulnerability over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

By using daily air temperature and precipitation data, and the weather phenomena data of daily snowfall from 98 meteorological stations over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau （QTP）, this paper performs an ＂at-risk＂ evaluation on snowfall and accumulated snow over the QTP under current climate situation and future climate warming condition. When rainfall, snowfall, or accumulated snow weather phenomena occur, critical values are determined based on dally air temperature and precipitation for current climate conditions. Air temperature of 0 ℃ is defined as the critical value of temperature for rainfall or snowfall, while 0 ℃ air temperature and 4.0 mm （autumn） or 3.0 mm （spring） snowfall amounts are defined as the critical values for accumulated snowfall. Analyses based on the above critical values disclose that under current climate condition, stations with ＂at-risk＂ accumulated snow account for 33% and 36% of all stations, and the ＂at-risk＂ snowfall stations reach 78% and 81% in autumn and spring, respectively. Spatially, most stations with ＂at-risk＂ accumulated snow are located on the southern and eastern edge of the QTP, and stations with ＂at-risk＂ snowfall are also apparent at the northern edge. If the air temperature increases by 2.5 ℃ in 2050, only the snowfall at a few ＂at-risk＂ snowfall stations will transform into rainfall, while most ＂at-risk＂ accumulated snow stations will face the problem that snowfall is hardly accumulated. Additionally, most stations will become ＂at-risk＂ accumulated snow stations, indicating that both the snow depth and the snow cover duration will decline in most areas of the QTP, including a delay of the start date and an advancing of the end date of snow cover.

A Simulation Study on Climatic Effects of Land Cover Change in China

The regional climate model RegCM4 was used to investigate the regional climate effects of land cover change over China. Two 24-year simulations （1978-2001）, one with the land cover derived from the MODIS data and the other with the CLCV （Chinese land cover derived from vegetation map） data, were conducted for a region encompassing China. The differences between the MODIS and CLCV data reflect characteristics of desertification and degradation of vegetation in China. Results indicate that the land cover change has important impacts on local climate through mechanisms related to changes in surface energy, water budgets and macro-scale circulation. In summer, the land cover change leads to a decrease in surface air temperature over southern China, a reduction in precipitation and an increase in surface air temperature in the transitional climate zone and the northern Tibetan Plateau, and an increase in inter-annual variability of surface air temperature in the marginal monsoon zone and northwestern China. Strengthened southwesterly winds increase precipitation to some extent in central and eastern Inner Mongolia by enhancing water vapor transport. In winter, enhanced northerly winds, bringing more dry and cold air, lead to a reduction in precipitation and temperature over areas south of the Yellow River.

Sensitivity of the Number of Snow Cover Days to Surface Air Temperature over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Based on the number of snow cover days （NSCDs） and homogenized surface air temperature data for the period 1951-2004, this study performs the quantitative analysis on the sensitivity of NSCDs to surface air temperature over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau （QTP）. Results show that both the extreme sensitivity and sensitivity under current climate are higher in the edge than in the central area of the QTP. There exists a strong negative correlation between station＇s elevation and critical temperature, at which the sensitivity reaches extremum. The negative correlation between the elevation and the extreme sensitivity is not as strong as the former one. Currently, the climatological temperatures in quite a few stations do not reach the critical stage. The sensitivity at these stations will become greater under the current background of climate warming, which means NSCDs will be more sensitive to surface air temperature.

Changes in the Thermal and Hydraulic Regime within the Active Layer in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The change trends of air temperature,precipitation and evaporation from 1999 to 2008 shows that the climate in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost region had become warmer.The analysis of the systematic active-layer data monitoring network along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway indicated that the active-layer thickness had been increasing and the soil temperature was rising.The soil temperature was rising in winter but not at the end of spring or during the entire summer.With thickening and warming of the active layer,the liquid water content of the active layer had an obvious downward migration and liquid water content in the top horizons decreased,but in the deeper horizons it increased.

Evaluation of ERA-Interim Monthly Temperature Data over the Tibetan Plateau

In this study, surface air temperature from 75 meteorological stations above 3000 m on the Tibetan Plateau are applied for evaluation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) third-generation reanalysis product ERA-Interim in the period of 1979-2010. High correlations ranging from 0.973 to 0.999 indicate that ERA-Interim could capture the annual cycle very well. However, an average root-meansquare error(rmse) of 3.7°C for all stations reveals that ERA-Interim could not be applied directly for the individual sites. The biases can be mainly attributed to the altitude differences between ERA-Interim grid points and stations. An elevation correction method based on monthly lapse rates is limited to reduce the bias for all stations. Generally, ERA-Interim captured the Plateau-Wide annual and seasonal climatologies very well. The spatial variance is highly related to the topographic features of the TP. The temperature increases significantly(10°C- 15°C) from the western to the eastern Tibetan Plateau for all seasons, in particular during winter and summer. A significant warming trend(0.49°C/decade) is found over the entire Tibetan Plateau using station time series from 1979-2010. ERA-Interim captures the annual warming trend with an increase rate of 0.33°C /decade very well. The observation data and ERA-Interim data both showed the largest warming trends in winter with values of 0.67°C/decade and 0.41°C/decade, respectively. We conclude that in general ERA-Interim captures the temperature trends very well and ERA-Interim is reliable for climate change investigation over the Tibetan Plateau under the premise of cautious interpretation.

青藏高原上的雪灾

青藏高原上的雪灾李万顺我国是一个多自然灾害的国家。台风、寒潮、洪涝、干旱等自然灾害因给人类带来巨大损失而被人们所熟知。但在我国青藏地区却经常发生着另一种不为人们所了解的灾害──雪灾。在我国东部，北方地区每年冬天降下一定量的雪，会给来年的春播带来良好的...