Spring snowmelt peak flow （SSPF） can cause serious damage. Precipitation as rainfall directly contributes to the SSPF and influences the characteristics of the SSPF, while temperature indirectly impacts the SSPF by ...Spring snowmelt peak flow （SSPF） can cause serious damage. Precipitation as rainfall directly contributes to the SSPF and influences the characteristics of the SSPF, while temperature indirectly impacts the SSPF by shaping snowmelt rate and determining the soil frozen state which partitions snowmelt water into surface runoff and soil infiltration water in spring. It is necessary to identify the important and significant paths of climatic factors influencing the SSPF and provide estimates of the magnitude and significance of hypothesized causal connections between climatic factors and the SSPF. This study used path analysis with a selection of five factors - the antecedent precipitation index （API）, spring precipitation （SP）, winter precipitation as snowfall （WS）, 〈0℃ temperature accumulation in winter （[ATNI）, and average 〉0℃temperature accumulation in spring （AT） - to analyze their influences on the SSPF in the Kaidu River in Xinjiang, China. The results show that {ATN}, AT and WS have a significant correlation with the SSPF, while API and SP do not show a significant correlation. AT and WS directly influence the SSPF, while as the influence of[ATN] on SSPF is indirect through WS and AT. The indirect influence of [ATN[ on SSPF through WS accounts for 69% of the total influence of [ATN] on SSPF. Compared to the multiple linear regression method, path analysis provides additional valuable information, including influencing paths from independent variables to the dependent variable as well as direct and indirect impacts of external variables on the internal variable. This information can help improve the description of snow melt and spring runoff in hydrologic models as well as the planning and management of water resources.展开更多
Debris flows and landslides, extensively developing and frequently occurring along Parlung Zangbo, seriously damage the Highway from Sichuan to Tiebt(G318) at Bomi County. The disastrous debris flows of the Tianmo Wat...Debris flows and landslides, extensively developing and frequently occurring along Parlung Zangbo, seriously damage the Highway from Sichuan to Tiebt(G318) at Bomi County. The disastrous debris flows of the Tianmo Watershed on Sept. 4, 2007, July 25, 2010 and Sept. 4, 2010, blocked Parlung Zangbo River and produced dammed lakes, whose outburst flow made 50 m high terrace collapse at the opposite bank due to intense scouring on the foot of the terrace. As a result, the traffic was interrupted for 16 days in 2010 because that 900 m highway base was destructed and 430 m ruined. These debris flows were initiated by the glacial melting which was induced by continuous higher temperature and the following intensive rainfall, and expanded by moraines along channels and then blocked Parlung Zangbo. At the outlet of watershed,the density, velocity and peak discharge of debris flow was 2.06 t/m3, 12.7 m/s and 3334 m3/s, respectively. When the discharge at the outlet and the deposition volume into river exceeds 2125 m3/s and 126×103 m3, respectively, debris flow will completely blocked Parlung Zangbo. Moreover,if the shear stress of river flow on the foot of terrace and the inclination angel of terrace overruns 0. 377 N/m2 and 26°, respectively, the unconsolidated terrace will be eroded by outburst flow and collapse. It was strongly recommended for mitigation that identify and evade disastrous debris flows, reduce the junction angel of channels between river and watershed, build protecting wall for highway base and keep appropriate distance between highway and the edge of unconsolidated terrace.展开更多
In this paper, we present a new macro model for traffic flow on a highway with ramps based on the existing models. We use the new model to study the effects of on-off-ramp on the main road traffic during the morning r...In this paper, we present a new macro model for traffic flow on a highway with ramps based on the existing models. We use the new model to study the effects of on-off-ramp on the main road traffic during the morning rush period and the evening rush period. Numerical tests show that, during the two rush periods, these effects are often different and related to the status of the main road traffic. If the main road traffic flow is uniform, then ramps always produce stop-and-go traffic when the main road density is between two critical values, and ramps have little effect on the main road traffic when the main road density is less than the smaller critical value or greater than the larger critical value. If a small perturbation appears on the main road, ramp may lead to stop-and-go traffic, or relieve or even eliminate the stop-and-go traffic, under different circumstances. These results are consistent with real traffic, which shows that the new model is reasonable.展开更多
基金financially supported by the Project of State Key Basic R & D Program of China (973 Program, Grant No. 2010CB951002)the key deployment project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZZD-EW-12-2)Chinese Academy of Sciences Visiting Professorship for Senior International Scientists (Grant No. 2011T2Z40)
文摘Spring snowmelt peak flow （SSPF） can cause serious damage. Precipitation as rainfall directly contributes to the SSPF and influences the characteristics of the SSPF, while temperature indirectly impacts the SSPF by shaping snowmelt rate and determining the soil frozen state which partitions snowmelt water into surface runoff and soil infiltration water in spring. It is necessary to identify the important and significant paths of climatic factors influencing the SSPF and provide estimates of the magnitude and significance of hypothesized causal connections between climatic factors and the SSPF. This study used path analysis with a selection of five factors - the antecedent precipitation index （API）, spring precipitation （SP）, winter precipitation as snowfall （WS）, 〈0℃ temperature accumulation in winter （[ATNI）, and average 〉0℃temperature accumulation in spring （AT） - to analyze their influences on the SSPF in the Kaidu River in Xinjiang, China. The results show that {ATN}, AT and WS have a significant correlation with the SSPF, while API and SP do not show a significant correlation. AT and WS directly influence the SSPF, while as the influence of[ATN] on SSPF is indirect through WS and AT. The indirect influence of [ATN[ on SSPF through WS accounts for 69% of the total influence of [ATN] on SSPF. Compared to the multiple linear regression method, path analysis provides additional valuable information, including influencing paths from independent variables to the dependent variable as well as direct and indirect impacts of external variables on the internal variable. This information can help improve the description of snow melt and spring runoff in hydrologic models as well as the planning and management of water resources.
基金supported by the Key Program of National Natural Science Found of China(Grant No.41030742)the Grand Program of National Natural Science Found of China(Grant No.41190084)
文摘Debris flows and landslides, extensively developing and frequently occurring along Parlung Zangbo, seriously damage the Highway from Sichuan to Tiebt(G318) at Bomi County. The disastrous debris flows of the Tianmo Watershed on Sept. 4, 2007, July 25, 2010 and Sept. 4, 2010, blocked Parlung Zangbo River and produced dammed lakes, whose outburst flow made 50 m high terrace collapse at the opposite bank due to intense scouring on the foot of the terrace. As a result, the traffic was interrupted for 16 days in 2010 because that 900 m highway base was destructed and 430 m ruined. These debris flows were initiated by the glacial melting which was induced by continuous higher temperature and the following intensive rainfall, and expanded by moraines along channels and then blocked Parlung Zangbo. At the outlet of watershed,the density, velocity and peak discharge of debris flow was 2.06 t/m3, 12.7 m/s and 3334 m3/s, respectively. When the discharge at the outlet and the deposition volume into river exceeds 2125 m3/s and 126×103 m3, respectively, debris flow will completely blocked Parlung Zangbo. Moreover,if the shear stress of river flow on the foot of terrace and the inclination angel of terrace overruns 0. 377 N/m2 and 26°, respectively, the unconsolidated terrace will be eroded by outburst flow and collapse. It was strongly recommended for mitigation that identify and evade disastrous debris flows, reduce the junction angel of channels between river and watershed, build protecting wall for highway base and keep appropriate distance between highway and the edge of unconsolidated terrace.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 70701002 and 70521001the State Key Basic Research Program of China under Grant No. 2006CB705503the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region under Grant No. HKU7187/05E
文摘In this paper, we present a new macro model for traffic flow on a highway with ramps based on the existing models. We use the new model to study the effects of on-off-ramp on the main road traffic during the morning rush period and the evening rush period. Numerical tests show that, during the two rush periods, these effects are often different and related to the status of the main road traffic. If the main road traffic flow is uniform, then ramps always produce stop-and-go traffic when the main road density is between two critical values, and ramps have little effect on the main road traffic when the main road density is less than the smaller critical value or greater than the larger critical value. If a small perturbation appears on the main road, ramp may lead to stop-and-go traffic, or relieve or even eliminate the stop-and-go traffic, under different circumstances. These results are consistent with real traffic, which shows that the new model is reasonable.
