Based on daily observation data of the Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin and global reanalysis data,the climate characteristics,climate events,and meteorological disasters of the TGR in 2022 and 2023 ...Based on daily observation data of the Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin and global reanalysis data,the climate characteristics,climate events,and meteorological disasters of the TGR in 2022 and 2023 were analyzed.For the TGR,the average annual temperature for 2022 and 2023 was 0.8℃ and 0.4℃ higher than normal,respectively,making them the two warmest years in the past decade.In 2022,the TGR experienced its warmest summer on record.The average air temperature was 2.4℃ higher than the average,and there were 24.8 days of above-average high temperature days during summer.Rainfall in the TGR varied significantly between 2022 and 2023.Annual rainfall was 18.4%below normal and drier than normal in most parts of the region.In contrast,the precipitation in 2023 was considerably higher than the long-term average,and above normal for almost the entire year.The average wind speed exhibited minimal variation between the two years.However,the number of foggy days and relative humidity increased in 2023 compared to 2022.In 2022–2023,the TGR mainly experienced meteorological disasters such as extreme high temperatures,regional heavy rain and flooding,overcast rain,and inverted spring chill.Analysis indicates that the abnormal western Pacific subtropical high and the abnormal persistence of the eastward-shifted South Asian high were the two important drivers of the durative enhancement of record-breaking high temperature in the summer of 2022.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to research effects of high temperature stress on pepper yield by cultivation of peppers in different genotypes and provide theoretical references for pepper breeding and high-yield cultivation...[Objective] The aim was to research effects of high temperature stress on pepper yield by cultivation of peppers in different genotypes and provide theoretical references for pepper breeding and high-yield cultivation. [Method] Four pepper va- rieties were studied with varied genotypes to explore effects of temperatures on pepper fruiting and yield in the whole growth stage. [Result] The optimal-temperatre term for pepper blooming and fruiting were shorter. For example, the periods from June 16 to July 15 and from August 16 to September 15 would be the best, with temperature ranging from 20.70 ℃ to 30.74 ℃. In the stage from July 16 to August 15, the temperature range of 24.22 ℃-32.17 ℃ would severely affect pepper growth and yield. Pepper No. 1 and pepper No. 1-1's yields were just 38.21% and 51.74% of the yields in the stage 1st and 52.01% and 62.35% in the stage 3rd and eady No. 1 and late No. 1 were 48.1% and 72.38%, respectively. Under high tem- perature stress in summer, pepper No. 1, pepper No. 1-1, and late No. 1 showed extremely significant differences with early No. 1 (P〈0.01). The yield ratios of pep- per No. 1 and pepper No. 1-1 in stage 1st (May 25-July 15) and the later three stages were 42.34:57.66 and 39.50:60.50; the ratio was 47.99:52.21 of early No. 1; the ratio of late No. 1 was 20.25:79.75. [Conclusion] The cultivation approaches should vary upon pepper variety, necessitating the focus on pepper management, fertilization, and irrigation, and locating peak-blooming term in moderate-temperature stage to accelerate pepper growth.展开更多
Following the study on effects of different root temperature treatments on growth and stomata of tomato plants under high temperature in summer, the influence of different root temperature treatments on microstructure...Following the study on effects of different root temperature treatments on growth and stomata of tomato plants under high temperature in summer, the influence of different root temperature treatments on microstructure of tomato leaves was studied in depth in this paper. The tomato plants were cultured with circulating nutrient solutions. Under three different root temperature treatments [(23±1), (28±1), (33±1)℃], the microstructure of tomato leaves were observed and measured with paraffin section method. The results showed that with the increase of root temperature, the thickness, palisade tissue thickness, spongy tissue thickness of tomato leaves all decreased, but the epidermis thickness and palisade tissue thickness to spongy tissue thickness ratio increased. Therefore, increased root temperature led to drought stress to tomato plants, and in order to adapt to the hot and drought environment, tomato plants changed their structural characteristics.展开更多
This paper reveals that the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is closely related to the extreme hot event (EHE) variability in China during the period of 1979 2009, with a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO c...This paper reveals that the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is closely related to the extreme hot event (EHE) variability in China during the period of 1979 2009, with a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO corresponding to less (more) EHEs in northern China. The summer circulation anomalies associated with the SNAO give further confirmation of the above relationship. In a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO year, there is an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over central East Asia, which can increase (decrease) the total cloud cover over this region. Such changes of the total cloud cover can then decrease (increase) the solar radiation reaching the surface, which is consequently unfavorable (favorable) to the formation of EHEs over northern China.展开更多
This study investigated the contributions of mid–high-latitude circulation anomalies to the extremely hot summer(July and August;JA)of 2018 over Northeast Asia(NEA).The JA-mean surface air temperature in 2018 was 1.2...This study investigated the contributions of mid–high-latitude circulation anomalies to the extremely hot summer(July and August;JA)of 2018 over Northeast Asia(NEA).The JA-mean surface air temperature in 2018 was 1.2°C higher than that of the 1979–2018 climatology,with the amplitude of such an anomaly almost doubling the interannual standard deviation,making 2018 the hottest year during the analysis period 1979–2018.The abnormal warming over NEA was caused by a local positive geopotential height anomaly reaching strongest intensity in JA 2018.Further investigation suggested that the upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over northern Europe and the Caspian Sea were crucial to forming this NEA circulation anomaly through initiating downstream wave trains.Particularly,the geopotential heights over these two regions were concurrently at their highest in JA 2018,and therefore jointly contributed to the profound circulation anomaly over NEA and the hottest summer on record.Due to these two teleconnection patterns,the temperature anomalies in NEA are closely related to those in both northern Europe and the Caspian Sea,where the similarly extreme warming also happened in 2018.展开更多
In late July and early August 2018,Northeast China suffered from extremely high temperatures,with the maxium temperature anomaly exceeding 6°C.In this study,the large-scale circulation features associated with th...In late July and early August 2018,Northeast China suffered from extremely high temperatures,with the maxium temperature anomaly exceeding 6°C.In this study,the large-scale circulation features associated with this heat wave over Northeast China are analyzed using station temperature data and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data.The results indicate that strong anomalous positive geopotential height centers existed from the lower to upper levels over Northeast China,and the related downward motions were directly responsible for the extreme high-temperature anomalies.The northwestward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and the northeastward shift of the South Asian high concurrently reinforced the geopotential height anomalies and descending flow over Northeast China.In addition,an anomalous Pacific–Japan pattern in the lower troposphere led to the northwestward shift of the WPSH,jointly favoring the anomalous geopotential height over Northeast China.Two wave trains emanating from the Atlantic region propagated eastwards along high latitudes and midlatitudes,respectively,and converged over Northeast China,leading to the enhancement of the geopotential height anomalies.展开更多
Based on the analysis of NCEP height, wind and OLR data, the influence of spring equatorial eastern Pacific SSTA on the seasonal change from spring to summer of eastern Asian circulation has been investigated. Results...Based on the analysis of NCEP height, wind and OLR data, the influence of spring equatorial eastern Pacific SSTA on the seasonal change from spring to summer of eastern Asian circulation has been investigated. Results show that related to the warm (cold) spring SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific, the anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) circulation emerges around the South China Sea and the Philippines, the strong (weak) west Pacific subtropical high locates to the west (east) of its normal position, which induces to the late (early) onset of the South China Sea monsoon. The numerical simulations have also shown that the remarkable influence of spring SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific on the spring seasonal change of eastern Asian circulation will last till summer.展开更多
The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of road transportation under heat conditions on some haematological [Ht (haematocrit), blood cells count and EOF (erythrocytes osmotic fragility)] and physiol...The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of road transportation under heat conditions on some haematological [Ht (haematocrit), blood cells count and EOF (erythrocytes osmotic fragility)] and physiological [Tr (rectal temperature), HR (heart) and RR (respiratory rates), and circulating levels of Cor (cortisol), Glu (glucose) and minerals] parameters in Moroccan dromedary camels. The animals were subjected to road transportation stressor for 2 h by truck during the hot-dry season. Blood samples were collected before loading and transport, and at the end of transport. Transportation induced a significant increase (P 〈 0.05) of erythrocytes count, Ht, EOF, Tr, HR and RR by comparison to values observed before transportation. The same stress conditions induced a significant increase (P 〈 0.05) of plasma Cor (ng/mL) and blood Glu (mM) (220 ± 30 vs. 137 ± 20, 9.7 ± 1.2 vs. 6.4 ± 1. 1 respectively) and a significant decrease (P 〈 0.05) of plasma magnesium (mM) (0.5 ± 0.1 vs. 0.9 ± 0.1) comparatively to pre-transportation values. These results indicate that road transportation associated to heat may be considered as a potent stressor which is able to induce several cellular alterations in camels. Further studies of an eventual protective role of vitamin C against haemolysis induced by transportation stress in camel are needed.展开更多
With correlation analysis and factor analysis methods, the effects of preceding Pacific SSTs on subtropical high indexes of main raining seasons are discussed. The results of correlation analysis show that the effects...With correlation analysis and factor analysis methods, the effects of preceding Pacific SSTs on subtropical high indexes of main raining seasons are discussed. The results of correlation analysis show that the effects of SSTs on five subtropical high indexes differ in seasons and regions. The variation of SSTs mostly affects the area and intensity indexes of the subtropical high, followed by the western ridge index, and the effect on the ridge line index is more remarkable than on the north boundary index. The results of factor analysis reveals that the first common factor of SST of each season reflected mainly the inverse relation of SSTs variation between the central and eastern part of equatorial Pacific and the western Pacific, which correlates better with the subtropical high indexes in the main raining seasons than other common factors of SST. The analysis of interdecadal variation indicated that the variation of SSTs was conducive to the emergence of the La Ni?a event before the end of 1970s, such that in the summer the subtropical high is likely to be weaker and smaller and located eastward and northward. After the 1980s, the opposite characteristics prevailed.展开更多
Based on the observations from 239 meteorological stations located in Central China (Henan, Hubei and Hunan provinces), this paper focuses on the climate change facts during 1961- 2010. There was a significant incre...Based on the observations from 239 meteorological stations located in Central China (Henan, Hubei and Hunan provinces), this paper focuses on the climate change facts during 1961- 2010. There was a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature for Central China during 1961 -2010. The increasing rate was 0.15℃ per decade, which was lower than the national trend. Since the mid-1980s, temperature increasing was obvious. Large increasing rate was observed in the mid-eastern part of Central China. For the four seasons, the increasing rate in winter was the largest (0.27℃ per decade). The increasing rate in the annual mean minimum temperature was larger than that in the annual mean maximum temperature from 1961 to 2010. As a result, the diurnal range of temperature decreased at the rate of -0.10℃ per decade. The extreme high temperature events were increasing while the extreme low temperature events were significantly decreasing. There was no obvious trend in annual precipitation for Central China during 1961-2010. Precipitation in summer and winter significantly increased; change of precipitation in spring was not obvious; precipitation in autumn was decreasing. The decreasing rate of annual rainy days was -3.4 d per decade. The precipitation intensity increased at the rate of 0.25 mm d-1 per decade. Heavy-rain days significantly increased. Spring and summer started earlier while autumn and winter started later. As a result, spring and summer duration was expanding whereas autumn and winter duration shortened.展开更多
Weather and climate in East China are closely related to the variability of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), which is an important part of the Asian monsoon system. The WPSH prediction in spring and summer ...Weather and climate in East China are closely related to the variability of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), which is an important part of the Asian monsoon system. The WPSH prediction in spring and summer is a critical component of rainfall forecasting during the summer flood season in China. Although many attempts have been made to predict WPSH variability, its predictability remains limited in practice due to the complexity of the WPSH evolution. Many studies have indicated that the sea surface temperature(SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean has a significant effect on WPSH variability. In this paper, a statistical model is developed to forecast the monthly variation in the WPSH during the spring and summer seasons on the basis of its relationship with SST over the tropical Indian Ocean. The forecasted SST over the tropical Indian Ocean is the predictor in this model, which differs significantly from other WPSH prediction methods. A 26-year independent hindcast experiment from 1983 to 2008 is conducted and validated in which the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is compared with that driven by the persisted SST. Results indicate that the skill score of the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is substantial.展开更多
There are numerous lakes on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),but the role of lake temperature in precipitation over the TP remains unclear.Here the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model was used to detect the impact of l...There are numerous lakes on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),but the role of lake temperature in precipitation over the TP remains unclear.Here the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model was used to detect the impact of lakes on summer rainfall.Three test cases were used to evaluate the effect of lakes surface temperature(LSTs) on precipitation variability.The three cases used different methods to determine initial LSTs,including using sea surface temperature data(SST),the WRF inland water module(avg_tsfc),and a lake model.Results show that when precipitation was stimulated over the TP,LSTs cannot be initialized using SST,which led to large discrepancies of precipitation.Compared with the simulations,the simulated precipitation were improved obviously with LSTs using avg_tsfc,indicating that LSTs have an considerable influence on determining precipitation over the TP.Due to a lack of observational data,the lake scheme does not improve on rainfall simulation,but does effectively simulate precipitation pattern over lakes,such as rainfall over the lakes was dominated by convection during the nighttime.Though the simulated precipitation using SST to initialize LSTs caused largediscrepancies,it suggested that precipitation increase especially convective precipitation with increase in LSTs,which confirmed that the moisture from lakes cannot be neglected over the TP.Generally,it was necessary to monitor the LSTs for accurate weather and climate prediction over the TP.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2023YFC3206001]the Three Gorges Project Comprehensive Monitoring Program for Operational Safety[grant number SK2023019]which funded by the Ministry of Water Resources of China.
文摘Based on daily observation data of the Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin and global reanalysis data,the climate characteristics,climate events,and meteorological disasters of the TGR in 2022 and 2023 were analyzed.For the TGR,the average annual temperature for 2022 and 2023 was 0.8℃ and 0.4℃ higher than normal,respectively,making them the two warmest years in the past decade.In 2022,the TGR experienced its warmest summer on record.The average air temperature was 2.4℃ higher than the average,and there were 24.8 days of above-average high temperature days during summer.Rainfall in the TGR varied significantly between 2022 and 2023.Annual rainfall was 18.4%below normal and drier than normal in most parts of the region.In contrast,the precipitation in 2023 was considerably higher than the long-term average,and above normal for almost the entire year.The average wind speed exhibited minimal variation between the two years.However,the number of foggy days and relative humidity increased in 2023 compared to 2022.In 2022–2023,the TGR mainly experienced meteorological disasters such as extreme high temperatures,regional heavy rain and flooding,overcast rain,and inverted spring chill.Analysis indicates that the abnormal western Pacific subtropical high and the abnormal persistence of the eastward-shifted South Asian high were the two important drivers of the durative enhancement of record-breaking high temperature in the summer of 2022.
基金Supported by Jiangsu Agricultural Science and Technology Self-raising Fund(00-05-10-30)~~
文摘[Objective] The aim was to research effects of high temperature stress on pepper yield by cultivation of peppers in different genotypes and provide theoretical references for pepper breeding and high-yield cultivation. [Method] Four pepper va- rieties were studied with varied genotypes to explore effects of temperatures on pepper fruiting and yield in the whole growth stage. [Result] The optimal-temperatre term for pepper blooming and fruiting were shorter. For example, the periods from June 16 to July 15 and from August 16 to September 15 would be the best, with temperature ranging from 20.70 ℃ to 30.74 ℃. In the stage from July 16 to August 15, the temperature range of 24.22 ℃-32.17 ℃ would severely affect pepper growth and yield. Pepper No. 1 and pepper No. 1-1's yields were just 38.21% and 51.74% of the yields in the stage 1st and 52.01% and 62.35% in the stage 3rd and eady No. 1 and late No. 1 were 48.1% and 72.38%, respectively. Under high tem- perature stress in summer, pepper No. 1, pepper No. 1-1, and late No. 1 showed extremely significant differences with early No. 1 (P〈0.01). The yield ratios of pep- per No. 1 and pepper No. 1-1 in stage 1st (May 25-July 15) and the later three stages were 42.34:57.66 and 39.50:60.50; the ratio was 47.99:52.21 of early No. 1; the ratio of late No. 1 was 20.25:79.75. [Conclusion] The cultivation approaches should vary upon pepper variety, necessitating the focus on pepper management, fertilization, and irrigation, and locating peak-blooming term in moderate-temperature stage to accelerate pepper growth.
文摘Following the study on effects of different root temperature treatments on growth and stomata of tomato plants under high temperature in summer, the influence of different root temperature treatments on microstructure of tomato leaves was studied in depth in this paper. The tomato plants were cultured with circulating nutrient solutions. Under three different root temperature treatments [(23±1), (28±1), (33±1)℃], the microstructure of tomato leaves were observed and measured with paraffin section method. The results showed that with the increase of root temperature, the thickness, palisade tissue thickness, spongy tissue thickness of tomato leaves all decreased, but the epidermis thickness and palisade tissue thickness to spongy tissue thickness ratio increased. Therefore, increased root temperature led to drought stress to tomato plants, and in order to adapt to the hot and drought environment, tomato plants changed their structural characteristics.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40905041)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955401)the "Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05090306)
文摘This paper reveals that the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is closely related to the extreme hot event (EHE) variability in China during the period of 1979 2009, with a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO corresponding to less (more) EHEs in northern China. The summer circulation anomalies associated with the SNAO give further confirmation of the above relationship. In a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO year, there is an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over central East Asia, which can increase (decrease) the total cloud cover over this region. Such changes of the total cloud cover can then decrease (increase) the solar radiation reaching the surface, which is consequently unfavorable (favorable) to the formation of EHEs over northern China.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers41605027,41805064,91537103,and 41876020]
文摘This study investigated the contributions of mid–high-latitude circulation anomalies to the extremely hot summer(July and August;JA)of 2018 over Northeast Asia(NEA).The JA-mean surface air temperature in 2018 was 1.2°C higher than that of the 1979–2018 climatology,with the amplitude of such an anomaly almost doubling the interannual standard deviation,making 2018 the hottest year during the analysis period 1979–2018.The abnormal warming over NEA was caused by a local positive geopotential height anomaly reaching strongest intensity in JA 2018.Further investigation suggested that the upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over northern Europe and the Caspian Sea were crucial to forming this NEA circulation anomaly through initiating downstream wave trains.Particularly,the geopotential heights over these two regions were concurrently at their highest in JA 2018,and therefore jointly contributed to the profound circulation anomaly over NEA and the hottest summer on record.Due to these two teleconnection patterns,the temperature anomalies in NEA are closely related to those in both northern Europe and the Caspian Sea,where the similarly extreme warming also happened in 2018.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 41775073
文摘In late July and early August 2018,Northeast China suffered from extremely high temperatures,with the maxium temperature anomaly exceeding 6°C.In this study,the large-scale circulation features associated with this heat wave over Northeast China are analyzed using station temperature data and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data.The results indicate that strong anomalous positive geopotential height centers existed from the lower to upper levels over Northeast China,and the related downward motions were directly responsible for the extreme high-temperature anomalies.The northwestward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and the northeastward shift of the South Asian high concurrently reinforced the geopotential height anomalies and descending flow over Northeast China.In addition,an anomalous Pacific–Japan pattern in the lower troposphere led to the northwestward shift of the WPSH,jointly favoring the anomalous geopotential height over Northeast China.Two wave trains emanating from the Atlantic region propagated eastwards along high latitudes and midlatitudes,respectively,and converged over Northeast China,leading to the enhancement of the geopotential height anomalies.
基金Post-doctorial Degree Foundation of the Nanjing University The Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province Education Bureau (00KJB170001)+2 种基金 NSF of Jiangsu (BK99020) The State Key Basic Program (G1998040907 & G1998040901-3) The National Natural Science Foun
文摘Based on the analysis of NCEP height, wind and OLR data, the influence of spring equatorial eastern Pacific SSTA on the seasonal change from spring to summer of eastern Asian circulation has been investigated. Results show that related to the warm (cold) spring SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific, the anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) circulation emerges around the South China Sea and the Philippines, the strong (weak) west Pacific subtropical high locates to the west (east) of its normal position, which induces to the late (early) onset of the South China Sea monsoon. The numerical simulations have also shown that the remarkable influence of spring SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific on the spring seasonal change of eastern Asian circulation will last till summer.
文摘The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of road transportation under heat conditions on some haematological [Ht (haematocrit), blood cells count and EOF (erythrocytes osmotic fragility)] and physiological [Tr (rectal temperature), HR (heart) and RR (respiratory rates), and circulating levels of Cor (cortisol), Glu (glucose) and minerals] parameters in Moroccan dromedary camels. The animals were subjected to road transportation stressor for 2 h by truck during the hot-dry season. Blood samples were collected before loading and transport, and at the end of transport. Transportation induced a significant increase (P 〈 0.05) of erythrocytes count, Ht, EOF, Tr, HR and RR by comparison to values observed before transportation. The same stress conditions induced a significant increase (P 〈 0.05) of plasma Cor (ng/mL) and blood Glu (mM) (220 ± 30 vs. 137 ± 20, 9.7 ± 1.2 vs. 6.4 ± 1. 1 respectively) and a significant decrease (P 〈 0.05) of plasma magnesium (mM) (0.5 ± 0.1 vs. 0.9 ± 0.1) comparatively to pre-transportation values. These results indicate that road transportation associated to heat may be considered as a potent stressor which is able to induce several cellular alterations in camels. Further studies of an eventual protective role of vitamin C against haemolysis induced by transportation stress in camel are needed.
文摘With correlation analysis and factor analysis methods, the effects of preceding Pacific SSTs on subtropical high indexes of main raining seasons are discussed. The results of correlation analysis show that the effects of SSTs on five subtropical high indexes differ in seasons and regions. The variation of SSTs mostly affects the area and intensity indexes of the subtropical high, followed by the western ridge index, and the effect on the ridge line index is more remarkable than on the north boundary index. The results of factor analysis reveals that the first common factor of SST of each season reflected mainly the inverse relation of SSTs variation between the central and eastern part of equatorial Pacific and the western Pacific, which correlates better with the subtropical high indexes in the main raining seasons than other common factors of SST. The analysis of interdecadal variation indicated that the variation of SSTs was conducive to the emergence of the La Ni?a event before the end of 1970s, such that in the summer the subtropical high is likely to be weaker and smaller and located eastward and northward. After the 1980s, the opposite characteristics prevailed.
基金supported by the Climate Change Special Project of China Meteorological Administration:The Assessment Report Preparation of the Climate Change of Central China (No. CCSF-10-04)
文摘Based on the observations from 239 meteorological stations located in Central China (Henan, Hubei and Hunan provinces), this paper focuses on the climate change facts during 1961- 2010. There was a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature for Central China during 1961 -2010. The increasing rate was 0.15℃ per decade, which was lower than the national trend. Since the mid-1980s, temperature increasing was obvious. Large increasing rate was observed in the mid-eastern part of Central China. For the four seasons, the increasing rate in winter was the largest (0.27℃ per decade). The increasing rate in the annual mean minimum temperature was larger than that in the annual mean maximum temperature from 1961 to 2010. As a result, the diurnal range of temperature decreased at the rate of -0.10℃ per decade. The extreme high temperature events were increasing while the extreme low temperature events were significantly decreasing. There was no obvious trend in annual precipitation for Central China during 1961-2010. Precipitation in summer and winter significantly increased; change of precipitation in spring was not obvious; precipitation in autumn was decreasing. The decreasing rate of annual rainy days was -3.4 d per decade. The precipitation intensity increased at the rate of 0.25 mm d-1 per decade. Heavy-rain days significantly increased. Spring and summer started earlier while autumn and winter started later. As a result, spring and summer duration was expanding whereas autumn and winter duration shortened.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB417404)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41075064 and41176014)
文摘Weather and climate in East China are closely related to the variability of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), which is an important part of the Asian monsoon system. The WPSH prediction in spring and summer is a critical component of rainfall forecasting during the summer flood season in China. Although many attempts have been made to predict WPSH variability, its predictability remains limited in practice due to the complexity of the WPSH evolution. Many studies have indicated that the sea surface temperature(SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean has a significant effect on WPSH variability. In this paper, a statistical model is developed to forecast the monthly variation in the WPSH during the spring and summer seasons on the basis of its relationship with SST over the tropical Indian Ocean. The forecasted SST over the tropical Indian Ocean is the predictor in this model, which differs significantly from other WPSH prediction methods. A 26-year independent hindcast experiment from 1983 to 2008 is conducted and validated in which the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is compared with that driven by the persisted SST. Results indicate that the skill score of the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is substantial.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41401226 and 41190080)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2015M570865) joint support this work
文摘There are numerous lakes on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),but the role of lake temperature in precipitation over the TP remains unclear.Here the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model was used to detect the impact of lakes on summer rainfall.Three test cases were used to evaluate the effect of lakes surface temperature(LSTs) on precipitation variability.The three cases used different methods to determine initial LSTs,including using sea surface temperature data(SST),the WRF inland water module(avg_tsfc),and a lake model.Results show that when precipitation was stimulated over the TP,LSTs cannot be initialized using SST,which led to large discrepancies of precipitation.Compared with the simulations,the simulated precipitation were improved obviously with LSTs using avg_tsfc,indicating that LSTs have an considerable influence on determining precipitation over the TP.Due to a lack of observational data,the lake scheme does not improve on rainfall simulation,but does effectively simulate precipitation pattern over lakes,such as rainfall over the lakes was dominated by convection during the nighttime.Though the simulated precipitation using SST to initialize LSTs caused largediscrepancies,it suggested that precipitation increase especially convective precipitation with increase in LSTs,which confirmed that the moisture from lakes cannot be neglected over the TP.Generally,it was necessary to monitor the LSTs for accurate weather and climate prediction over the TP.