基于ECMWF模式的武汉市冬季高空气温订正预报研究

基于2016—2018年冬季武汉站1000、925、850、700、500 hPa的探空气温和ECMWF的72 h气温预报数据,分析了武汉站的高空气温预报误差,使用多元线性回归方法建立了预报误差订正方程。研究发现,ECMWF模式对于各层气温的预报平均偏高0.54℃,1000~850 hPa平均预报误差随着高度增大,850 hPa上误差最大,高达0.77℃,预报偏高1.0℃以上的频次超过总数的1/3,850 hPa以上气温预报误差随着高度降低,500 hPa的预报误差最小。模式预报时效越长,高空气温预报误差越大,72 h时效平均预报误差高达0.80℃。基于ECMWF模式预报误差与850 hPa气温的相关关系,选取了两个订正预报因子,分别为22°N、112°E与33°N、112°E的温差及28°N、116°E与34°N、116°E的纬向风之差,并分层建立了气温预报误差订正方程。最后,对预报方程进行了检验,发现订正后各层气温误差均显著降低,误差平均降低了86.4%。

新疆区域高空气温变化特征分析

运用再分析资料(NCEP/NCAR)分析了新疆区域高空年均气温变化特征,同时运用逐步回归法对新疆高空冷月(1月)、暖月(7月)实测气温数据进行缺测插补,并通过交叉验证法对插补数据进行精度检验,在此基础上分析了新疆区域冷月、暖月高空气温变化特征,运用插补重建后的高空实测数据对1月、7月再分析资料(NCEP/NCAR)进行精度验证。结果表明:(1)新疆区域高空缺测插补后的数据精度较高效果较好,能够反映新疆高空气温变化的客观事实。(2)通过对新疆区域对流层(低、中、上)、平流层下层的冷、暖月和年平均变化趋势分析来看,随着高度的上升气温变化趋势由升温转为降温,并且随着高度的上升升温率在减小,减温率在增大;气温越高的月份,随着高度的升高,气温变化趋势发生改变的高度就越高;2000年后,对流层各层多为偏暖年,平流层下层多为偏冷年。(3)850 hPa和700 hPa年均温转折点均发生在1996年,由冷转暖;100 hPa发生在1995—1997年,由暖转冷;500 hPa和300 hPa均未出现明显的突变年份。(4)1月、7月再分析资料(NCEP/NCAR)与实测数据相关系数大多在0.9以上,总体误差相对较小。

祁连山冰川消融与高空气温变化的关系

利用１９８６年６～９月冰川实地考察资料及酒泉站的高空探测资料， 分析了１９８６年６～９月祁连山冰川消融随高空气温的变化特征和高空气温与河西地区托来河流量之间的关系， 得出两者之间存在较好的相关关系。

喀什1971—2010年高空温度气候变化特征分析

应用喀什气象站1971—2010年的探空资料，统计分析了850-100hPa上各层高空温度的气候变化特征。结果表明：喀什高空温度850～300hPa上的季节变化趋势为单峰型：200hPa上呈双峰型；100hPa亦呈单峰型，但其位相与850—300hPa的季节变化基本相反。春、秋、冬三季300hPa以上各层温度呈下降趋势，300hPa以下呈上升趋势；夏季整层均呈现下降趋势。各层等压面温度最高和最低出现的年代不同。喀什高空温度的变化周期主要集中在中低频区，高频区周期变化较弱，100hPa温度在2000年发生了突变。

西宁高空温度气候变化的基本特征

应用西宁气象台 196 1～ 2 0 0 0年的探空资料 ,统计分析了 70 0、6 0 0、5 0 0、40 0、30 0hpa等各层高空温度的长年代变化趋势以及显著性周期 ,揭示了 40年来西宁高空温度演变的基本特征。指出西宁地面至对流层底层呈增温趋势 ,对流层中下部的 6 0 0～ 30 0hPa在变冷 ,对流层中上部 2 0 0～ 10 0hPa又明显变暖 ,5 0～ 30hPa臭氧层呈降温趋势。地面至 30hPa整层气温总体呈增温趋势 ,波动式上升 ,升值不大 ;高空气温变化主要存在3

玛纳斯河1996年和1999年洪水事件的环境背景

进入 2 0世纪 90年代以来 ,在 1996年 7月和 1999年 8月玛纳斯河发生了两次历史上罕见的洪水事件。这两次洪水持续时间长 ,经济损失严重 ,研究这两次洪水的异同点对于今后开展水文预报和监测具有一定的意义。对1996年和 1999年两年全年的情况进行了系统的分析 ,总结了发生洪水年的环境背景 ,为今后的洪水预报及水文监测工作提供了一定的依据。

新疆下坂地水库枢纽工程设计洪水研究

通过对本流域洪水及高空气温的相关关系分析论证,提出适合本流域特征的设计洪水成果,为冰雪融水补给且资料短缺的河流设计洪水的分析提出一种有效的思考方法和途径。

Monitoring of Summer High Temperature Damage by Using MODIS Data to Estimate Air Temperature

[Objective] This study was to monitor the hot damage of high temperature on rice in summer by using MODIS data to estimate air temperature. [Method] A new statistical algorithm was introduced for daytime air temperature （Ta） retrievals over east China by using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） data, and the high temperature monitoring for rice in south China in 2007 summer was used to demonstrate. [Result] High temperature plays a key role in rice production during rice heading stage in summer in southern China. Using MODIS data to monitor the hot damage of high temperature is a feasible way to relieve agricultural disasters. [Conclusion] The result of this study provided a method to monitor hot damage of high temperature tn rice in summer of China.

巴音沟河防汛诌议

根据巴音沟河来水情况，一般习惯认定该河的主汛期是6月20日-8月20日，该河与新疆其他多数河流一样径流主要依赖冰川融化和降水补给，汛期由大气环流，冷暖气团产生的降雨，或3000m高空气温增加影响天山融雪，往往是导致巴音沟河夏汛或洪灾产生的原因，以笔者实践来看，巴音沟河防汛实践中，存在的困难和问题主要有以下几点。

Effects of Elevated Air Temperatures on Soil Thermal and Hydrologic Processes in the Active Layer in an Alpine Meadow Ecosystem of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

In this study,effects of elevated air temperatures on thermal and hydrologic process of the shallow soil in the active layer were investigated. Open-top chambers(OTCs)were utilized to increase air temperatures 1-2℃ in OTC-1 and 3-5℃ in OTC-2 in the alpine meadow ecosystem on the Qinghai- Tibetan Plateau.Results show that the annual air temperatures under OTC-1 and OTC-2 were 1.21℃ and 3.62℃ higher than the Control,respectively.The entirely-frozen period of shallow soil in the active layer was shortened and the fully thawed period was prolonged with temperature increase.The maximum penetration depth and duration of the negative isotherm during the entirely-frozen period decreased, and soil freezing was retarded in the local scope of the soil profile when temperature increased.Meanwhile, the positive isotherm during the fully-thawed period increased,and the soil thawing was accelerated.Soil moisture under different manipulations decreased with the temperature increase at the same depth. During the early freezing period and the early fully- thawed period,the maximum soil moisture under the Control manipulation was at 0.2 m deep,whereas under OTC-1 and OTC-2 manipulations,the maximum soil moisture were at 0.4-0.5 m deep. These results indicate that elevated temperatures led to a decrease of the moisture in the surface soil.The coupled relationship between soil temperature and moisture was significantly affected by the temperature increase.During the freezing and thawing processes, the soil temperature and moisture under different manipulations fit the regression model given by the equationθV=a/{1+exp[b(TS+c)]}+d.

Variations in the northern permafrost boundary over the last four decades in the Xidatan region, Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The distribution and variations of permafrost in the Xidatan region, the northern permafrost boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, were examined and analyzed using ground penetrating radar(GPR), borehole drilling, and thermal monitoring data. Results from GPR profiles together with borehole verification indicate that the lowest elevation limit of permafrost occurrence is 4369 m above sea level in 2012. Compared to previous studies, the maximal rise of permafrost limit is 28 m from 1975 to 2012. The total area of permafrost in the study region has been decreased by 13.8%. One of the two previously existed permafrost islands has disappeared and second one has reduced by 76% in area during the past ~40 years. In addition, the ground temperature in the Xidatan region has increased from 2012 to 2016, with a mean warming rate of ~0.004℃ a^(-1) and ~0.003℃ a^(-1) at the depths of 6 and 15 m, respectively. The rising of permafrost limit in the Xidatan region is mainly due to globalwarming. However, some non-climatic factors such as hydrologic processes and anthropic disturbances have also induced permafrost degradation. If the air temperature continues to increase, the northern permafrost boundary in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau may continue rising in the future.

Assessment of Snow Cover Vulnerability over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

By using daily air temperature and precipitation data, and the weather phenomena data of daily snowfall from 98 meteorological stations over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau （QTP）, this paper performs an ＂at-risk＂ evaluation on snowfall and accumulated snow over the QTP under current climate situation and future climate warming condition. When rainfall, snowfall, or accumulated snow weather phenomena occur, critical values are determined based on dally air temperature and precipitation for current climate conditions. Air temperature of 0 ℃ is defined as the critical value of temperature for rainfall or snowfall, while 0 ℃ air temperature and 4.0 mm （autumn） or 3.0 mm （spring） snowfall amounts are defined as the critical values for accumulated snowfall. Analyses based on the above critical values disclose that under current climate condition, stations with ＂at-risk＂ accumulated snow account for 33% and 36% of all stations, and the ＂at-risk＂ snowfall stations reach 78% and 81% in autumn and spring, respectively. Spatially, most stations with ＂at-risk＂ accumulated snow are located on the southern and eastern edge of the QTP, and stations with ＂at-risk＂ snowfall are also apparent at the northern edge. If the air temperature increases by 2.5 ℃ in 2050, only the snowfall at a few ＂at-risk＂ snowfall stations will transform into rainfall, while most ＂at-risk＂ accumulated snow stations will face the problem that snowfall is hardly accumulated. Additionally, most stations will become ＂at-risk＂ accumulated snow stations, indicating that both the snow depth and the snow cover duration will decline in most areas of the QTP, including a delay of the start date and an advancing of the end date of snow cover.

The advertisement call of the giant spiny frog Paa spinosa

We analyzed the advertisement call of Paa spinosa at Yuliang Mountain,Lanxi,Zhejiang Province,in eastern China.Temporal and spectral call parameters were analyzed,along with call intensity.Calls comprised of three to seven notes,the last of which had the longest duration.Three formants(harmonics)were clearly distinguishable from the audio spectrogram.The dominant frequency ranged from 411-1534 Hz,and was either the first or the second formant.The number of notes within a call was positively correlated to air temperature,so that calls contained more notes during the day.Also,the dominant frequency appeared to be lower at the highest temperature.

Effect of Altitude and Latitude on Surface Air Temperature across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The correlation between mean surface air temperature and altitude is analyzed in this paper based on the annual and monthly mean surface air temperature data from 106 weather stations over the period 1961-2003 across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results show that temperature variations not only depend on altitude but also latitude, and there is a gradual decrease in temperature with the increasing altitude and latitude. The overall trend for the vertical temperature lapse rate for the whole plateau is approximately linear. Three methods, namely multivariate composite analysis, simple correlation and traditional stepwise regression, were applied to analyze these three correlations. The results assessed with the first method are well matched to those with the latter two methods. The apparent mean annual near-surface lapse rate is -4.8 ℃ /km and the latitudinal effect is -0.87 ℃ /°latitude. In summer, the altitude influences the temperature variations more significantly with a July lapse rate of -4.3℃/km and the effect of latitude is only -0.28℃ /°latitude. In winter, the reverse happens. The temperature decrease is mainly due to the increase in latitude. The mean January lapse rate is -5.0℃/km, while the effect of latitude is -1.51℃ /°latitude. Comparative analysis for pairs of adjacent stations shows that at a small spatial scale the difference in altitude is the dominant factor affecting differences in mean annual near-surface air temperature, aided to some extent bydifferences of latitude. In contrast, the lapse rate in a small area is greater than the overall mean value for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau （5 to 13℃ /km）. An increasing trend has been detected for the surface lapse rate with increases in altitude. The temperature difference has obvious seasonal variations, and the trends for the southern group of stations （south of 33 o latitude） and for the more northerly group are opposite, mainly because of the differences in seasonal variation at low altitudes. For yearly changes, the temperature for high-altitude stations occurs earlier clearly. Temperature datasets at high altitude stations are well-correlated, and those in Nanjing were lagged for 1 year but less for contemporaneous correlations. The slope of linear trendline of temperature change for available years is clearly related to altitude, and the amplitude of temperature variation is enlarged by high altitude. The change effect in near-surface lapse rate at the varying altitude is approximately 1.0℃ /km on the rate of warming over a hundred-year period.

Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Variations of Monthly Mean Surface Air Temperature over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The recorded meteorological data of monthly mean surface air temperature from 72 meteorological stations over the Qinghal-Tibet Plateau in the period of 1960-2003 have been analyzed by using Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） method, to understand the detailed features of its temporal and spatial variations. The results show that there was a high consistency of the monthly mean surface air temperature, with a secondarily different variation between the north and the south of the plateau. Warming trend has existed at all stations since the 1960s, while the warming rates were different in various zones. The source regions of big rivers had intense warming tendency. June, November and December were the top three fast-warming months since the 1960s; while April, July and September presented dramatic warming tendency during the last decade.

Oxidation behaviors of Ni-Cr-Al superalloy foams at 1 000 °C in air

The oxidation behaviors of Ni-16Cr-xAl （x=4.5%, 9.0%, mass fraction） superalloy foams in air at 1000℃ were investigated. The effects of AI content on the resistance to high temperature oxidation were examined. The oxidation mechanisms of the foams were discussed. The results show that the resistance to the oxidation of the Ni-16Cr-xA1 based alloy at 1 000 ℃ increases with the content of A1 increasing from 4.5% to 9.0%. Complex oxide products are formed on the surface of the superalloy foams after the oxidation. Cr203 and A1203 are the predominant oxides for the scales of the foams with 4.5% A1 and 9% A1, respectively. Excellent high temperature oxidation resistance and superior pore conformation stability for the Ni-16Cr-xA1 based superalloy foam with 9% A1 can be mainly attributed to the formation of relatively continuous and protective A1203 oxides on the surface of the foam.

Effects of Different Processing Methods on the Qualityof Squid Chips

Taking squid as raw material, the effects of frying temperature and frying time on the quality of squid chips were studied under the conditions of normal pressure frying and high-temperature hot-air frying respectively. And the best processing technology of squid chips was determined. The results showed that crispy squid chips can be obtained by frying the squid after vacuum freeze-drying, and the best processing technology of squid chips is to treat the material by hot air drying at 160℃ for 4 min after pretreatment, seasoning, protease treatment, pre-freezing and freeze-drying. The squid chips made by this technology have a flavor of frying, tightly-shrunken surface tissue, a little browning, less hardness, crispness and no greasy taste.

Effect of refractory agent on ash fusibility temperatures of briquettet

To solve the problem of the low ash fusion point of briquette, this paper reported that the ash fusibility temperatures can be elevated by changing ash ingredients through blending refractory agents in briquette ash, which will create favorable conditions for moving bed continuous gasification of briquette with oxygen-rich air. The effects of A1203, SiO2, kaolin, dry powder and bentonite on ash fusibility temperatures were studied, based upon the relationship between briquette ash components and ash fusibility. The results show that the increasing of ash fusibility temperatures by adding the same amount （11%, w） of refractory agents follows the sequence of SiO2, bentonite, dry powder, kaolin, A1203, with the softening temperatures being elevated by 37.2, 57.6, 60.4, 82.6 and 104.4℃. With the same ratio of SIO2/A1203 in briquette, adding the A1203 component is more effective than SiO2 for raising ash fusibility temperatures. In this paper, inexpensive kaolin and bentonite rich in A1203 are found to be better refractory agents, and the suitable adding quantities are 9% and 11%, respectively.

Numerical Study on Laminar Burning Velocity and Flame Stability of Premixed Methane/Ethylene/Air Flames

A numerical study on premixed methane/ethylene/air flames with various ethylene fractions and equivalence ratios was conducted at room temperature and atmospheric pressure. The effects of ethylene addition on laminar burning velocity, flame structure and flame stability under the condition of lean burning were investigated. The results show that the laminar burning velocity increases with ethylene fraction, especially at a large equivalence ratio. More ethylene addition gives rise to higher concentrations of H, O and OH radicals in the flame, which significantly promotes chemical reactions, and a linear correlation exists between the laminar burning velocity and the maximum H + OH concentration in the reaction zone. With the increase of ethylene fraction, the adiabatic flame temperature is raised, while the inner layer temperature becomes lower, contributing to the enhancement of combustion. Markstein length and Markstein number, representative of the flame stability, increase as more ethylene is added, indicating the tendency of flame stability to improve with ethylene addition.

Analysis on Temperature Distributions in Single Cell of Polymer Electrolyte Fuel Cell When Operated in High Temperature Range

This study is to understand the impact of operating condition, especially initial operation temperature （Tini） which is set in high temperature range, on the temperature profile of the interface between PEM （polymer electrolyte membrane） and catalyst layer at the cathode （i.e., the reaction surface） in a single PEFC （polymer electrolyte fuel cell）. A 1D multi-plate heat transfer model based on the temperature data of separator measured using thermograph in a power generation experiment was developed to evaluate the reaction surface temperature （Treact）. This study investigated the effects of flow rate, relative humidity and type of supply gas as well as Tini on the temperature distribution on reaction surface. The results obtained in 02 supply case show that, the temperature rise at the segments near the outlet of cell decreases with increasing Tini irrespective of relative humidity of supply gas （RH）, while it is not seen in air supply case. Regarding the segments except near the outlet in 02 supply case, Treact - Tini increases with increasing Tini for 40% RH. The temperature distribution on reaction surface in 02 supply case is wider with increasing Tini as well as decreasing RH, though that in air supply case is relatively even.