Avalanches and landslides,induced by the Wenchuan Earthquake on May 12,2008,resulted in a lot of disaggregated,solid material on slopes that could be readily mobilized as source material for debris flows.Rainstorms tr...Avalanches and landslides,induced by the Wenchuan Earthquake on May 12,2008,resulted in a lot of disaggregated,solid material on slopes that could be readily mobilized as source material for debris flows.Rainstorms triggered numerous slope debris flows with great damage to highways and rivers over the subsequent two years.Slope debris flows(as opposed to channelized debris flows) are defined as phenomena in which high-concentration mixtures of debris and water flow down slopes for short distances to highways and river banks.Based on field investigations and measurements of 19 slope debris flows,their main characteristics and potential mitigation strategies were studied.High rainfall intensity is the main triggering factor.Critical rainfall intensities for simultaneous occurrence of single,several and numerous slope debris flow events were 20 mm/day,30mm/day,and 90 mm/day,respectively.Field investigations also revealed that slope debris flows consist of high concentrations of cobbles,boulders and gravel.They are two-phase debris flows.The liquid phase plays the role of lubrication instead of transporting medium.Solid particles collide with each other and consume a lot of energy.The velocities of slope debris flows are very low,and their transport distances are only several tens of meters.Slope debris flows may be controlled by construction of drainage systems and by reforestation.展开更多
In this paper,a hindcast study of the record-breaking rainfall event occurring in Beijing on 21July 2012,is conducted by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model forced by National Centers for Environmenta...In this paper,a hindcast study of the record-breaking rainfall event occurring in Beijing on 21July 2012,is conducted by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model forced by National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Global Forecasting System(GFS)outputs,paired with an investigation of the impact of topography in this region.The results indicate that WRF can reasonably predict the salient features of orographic precipitation;the 24-h rainfall amount and spatial distribution compare reasonably well with the observations.The hindcast simulation also indicates that rainfall events can be predicted approximately 36 h ahead.When the topography is removed,the spatial distribution of rainfall changes remarkably,suggesting the importance of the topography in determining rainfall structure.These results also indicate that prediction of such city-scale heavy rainfall events would benefit from a high-resolution prediction system.展开更多
Based on the distribution of hydrological stations and zoning of types ofsoil erosion, the Loess Plateau (3 10 x 10~3km^2) is divided into 292 erosion units. And taking theerosion modulus > 5000t/km^2 as a criterio...Based on the distribution of hydrological stations and zoning of types ofsoil erosion, the Loess Plateau (3 10 x 10~3km^2) is divided into 292 erosion units. And taking theerosion modulus > 5000t/km^2 as a criterion, the emphasis control area (149 x 10~3km^2) of the LoessPlateau is demarked, and is divided into 10 control regions. The controllable area and the locationof control measures are conformed. Level terraces are mainly collocated on the 3° ―15° slopes,woodland and grassland are collocated on the > 15° slopes, and the proportion of woodland tograssland is 8: 2 in the forest belt, 5: 5 in the forest steppe belt, and 2: 8 in the steppe belt.The 9000 combinations of soil-water conservation measures in different rainfall conditions areobtained by the permutation and combination method, according to the 9 rainfall frequencies and thecontrollable areas of level terrace, woodland and grassland at 10% of control progress rate. Thequality standards of level terrace, woodland and grassland are ascertained. The evaluation indexesof soil-water conservation benefits of level terrace, woodland and grassland are establishedrespectively in the condition that rainfall index is higher than that of erosive index of slopingfield. Based on the results above, the sediment reducing benefit and soil erosion modulus in thedifferent rainfall conditions and control degrees are analyzed, which could provide adecision-making basis for soil-water loss control on the Loess Plateau.展开更多
Morlet wavelet transformation is used in this paper to analyze the multi time scale characteristics of pre cipitation data series from 1957 to 2005 in Guyuan region.The results showed that(1) the annual precipitation ...Morlet wavelet transformation is used in this paper to analyze the multi time scale characteristics of pre cipitation data series from 1957 to 2005 in Guyuan region.The results showed that(1) the annual precipitation evo lution process had obvious multi time scale variation characteristics of 15 25 years,7 12 years and 3 6 years,and different time scales had different oscillation energy densities;(2) the periods at smaller time scales changed more frequently,which often nested in a biggish quasi periodic oscillations,so the concrete time domain should be ana lyzed if necessary;(3) the precipitation had three main periods(22 year,9 year and 4 year) and the 22 year period was especially outstanding,and the analysis of this main period reveals that the precipitation would be in a relative high water period until about 2012.展开更多
Relationship between the variations of West Pacific subtropical high indices in the summer half of the year and preceding SST in North Pacific was examined based on a data set of 1951 2000. The correlation between the...Relationship between the variations of West Pacific subtropical high indices in the summer half of the year and preceding SST in North Pacific was examined based on a data set of 1951 2000. The correlation between the subtropical high indices and preceding SST in the equatorial East Pacific was the strongest among the others, and has great persistency from last autumn to spring. It is indicated that ENSO events appeared about six months earlier than the change of the subtropical high activities, and the subtropical high intensities enhanced (weakened) and western ridge point was westward (eastward) in the year of El Nino (La Nina) events. It was also observed that there were similar interdecadal oscillation and abrupt variations between Nino3 SST, subtropical high intensities and rainfall of rainy season in Fujian. Therefore, experiments were made on rainfall distribution of rainy season in Fujian. The results showed that the distribution was directly affected by the subtropical high activities, pronouncedly caused by ENSO effect.展开更多
There are numerous lakes on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),but the role of lake temperature in precipitation over the TP remains unclear.Here the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model was used to detect the impact of l...There are numerous lakes on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),but the role of lake temperature in precipitation over the TP remains unclear.Here the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model was used to detect the impact of lakes on summer rainfall.Three test cases were used to evaluate the effect of lakes surface temperature(LSTs) on precipitation variability.The three cases used different methods to determine initial LSTs,including using sea surface temperature data(SST),the WRF inland water module(avg_tsfc),and a lake model.Results show that when precipitation was stimulated over the TP,LSTs cannot be initialized using SST,which led to large discrepancies of precipitation.Compared with the simulations,the simulated precipitation were improved obviously with LSTs using avg_tsfc,indicating that LSTs have an considerable influence on determining precipitation over the TP.Due to a lack of observational data,the lake scheme does not improve on rainfall simulation,but does effectively simulate precipitation pattern over lakes,such as rainfall over the lakes was dominated by convection during the nighttime.Though the simulated precipitation using SST to initialize LSTs caused largediscrepancies,it suggested that precipitation increase especially convective precipitation with increase in LSTs,which confirmed that the moisture from lakes cannot be neglected over the TP.Generally,it was necessary to monitor the LSTs for accurate weather and climate prediction over the TP.展开更多
Using the new formula of moist available energy (MAE), the value of the MAE’s key terms ofthree heavy rainfall cases in Guangdong province in 1998 was calculated. The energetic aggregation andenergetic discharge are ...Using the new formula of moist available energy (MAE), the value of the MAE’s key terms ofthree heavy rainfall cases in Guangdong province in 1998 was calculated. The energetic aggregation andenergetic discharge are analyzed. It shows that the value of the key terms in the formula appears different featureclearly in the different precipitation period, as well as the function of each term presents in the heavy rain region.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to provide references for development of industries engaging in flowers and trees in Beipei area in Chongqing. [Method] The occurring trend, intensity trend of summer drought, relationship of i...[Objective] The aim was to provide references for development of industries engaging in flowers and trees in Beipei area in Chongqing. [Method] The occurring trend, intensity trend of summer drought, relationship of intensity with rainfall and extremely highest temperature, occurring trend during initial period of summer drought and the effects in mountain cities were analyzed, based on information on lasting period, rainfall, average temperature, extremely highest temperature of sum- mer drought in Beipei area in mountain cities during 1981-2010 and, growth condi- tion and phenological phenomena of Michelia champaca during 2005-2007. [Result] The occurring probability of summer drought in mountain cities was 57% and the probabilities of light, moderate, heavy and extreme drought were 30%, 10%, 7% and 10%; intensity of summer drought was none of linear relation with rainfall and ex- tremely highest temperature. In summer drought, daily average rainfall was less than 0.9 ram; extremely highest temperature was 35.0-45.0 ℃ with probability at 30%; initial period of summer drought was from later June to middle August and of extreme drought was later June-later July; the ending period was early September. During drought, when the extremely highest temperature (〉35.0 ℃) occurred in three days within a Hou, flowers and trees were affected by the hot drought and when the extreme temperature (〉40.0 ℃) occurred in three days within a Hou, the plants were seriously affected. [Conclusion] Based on characters of summer drought, pre- cautions can be taken to reduce effects of summer drought on flowers and trees with the help of weather forecast.展开更多
Soil erosion has become a major global environmental problem and is particularly acute on the Loess Plateau(LP), China. It is therefore highly important to control this process in order to improve ecosystems, protect ...Soil erosion has become a major global environmental problem and is particularly acute on the Loess Plateau(LP), China. It is therefore highly important to control this process in order to improve ecosystems, protect ecological security, and maintain the harmonious relationship between humans and nature. We compared the effects of rainfall and land use(LU) patterns on soil erosion in different LP watersheds in this study in order to augment and improve soil erosion models. As most research on this theme has so far been focused on individual study areas, limited analyses of rainfall and LU patterns on soil erosion within different-scale watersheds has so far been performed, a discrepancy which might influence the simulation accuracies of soil erosion models. We therefore developed rainfall and LU pattern indices in this study using the soil erosion evaluation index as a reference and applied them to predict the extent of this process in different-scale watersheds, an approach which is likely to play a crucial role in enabling the comprehensive management of this phenomenon as well as the optimized design of LU patterns. The areas considered in this study included the Qingjian, Fenchuan, Yanhe, and Dali river watersheds. Results showed that the rainfall erosivity factor(R) tended to increase in these areas from 2006 to 2012, while the vegetation cover and management factor(C) tended to decrease. Results showed that as watershed area increased, the effect of rainfall pattern on soil erosion gradually decreased while patterns in LU trended in the opposite direction, as the relative proportion of woodland decreased and the different forms of steep slope vegetation cover became more homogenous. As watershed area increased, loose soil and craggy terrain properties led to additional gravitational erosion and enhanced the effects of both soil and topography.展开更多
基金supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2008CB425803)the State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering at Tsinghua University (50823005,2009-ZY-2)
文摘Avalanches and landslides,induced by the Wenchuan Earthquake on May 12,2008,resulted in a lot of disaggregated,solid material on slopes that could be readily mobilized as source material for debris flows.Rainstorms triggered numerous slope debris flows with great damage to highways and rivers over the subsequent two years.Slope debris flows(as opposed to channelized debris flows) are defined as phenomena in which high-concentration mixtures of debris and water flow down slopes for short distances to highways and river banks.Based on field investigations and measurements of 19 slope debris flows,their main characteristics and potential mitigation strategies were studied.High rainfall intensity is the main triggering factor.Critical rainfall intensities for simultaneous occurrence of single,several and numerous slope debris flow events were 20 mm/day,30mm/day,and 90 mm/day,respectively.Field investigations also revealed that slope debris flows consist of high concentrations of cobbles,boulders and gravel.They are two-phase debris flows.The liquid phase plays the role of lubrication instead of transporting medium.Solid particles collide with each other and consume a lot of energy.The velocities of slope debris flows are very low,and their transport distances are only several tens of meters.Slope debris flows may be controlled by construction of drainage systems and by reforestation.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant 2012CB955401)the"Strategic Priority Research Program"of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant XDB03020600)
文摘In this paper,a hindcast study of the record-breaking rainfall event occurring in Beijing on 21July 2012,is conducted by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model forced by National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Global Forecasting System(GFS)outputs,paired with an investigation of the impact of topography in this region.The results indicate that WRF can reasonably predict the salient features of orographic precipitation;the 24-h rainfall amount and spatial distribution compare reasonably well with the observations.The hindcast simulation also indicates that rainfall events can be predicted approximately 36 h ahead.When the topography is removed,the spatial distribution of rainfall changes remarkably,suggesting the importance of the topography in determining rainfall structure.These results also indicate that prediction of such city-scale heavy rainfall events would benefit from a high-resolution prediction system.
文摘Based on the distribution of hydrological stations and zoning of types ofsoil erosion, the Loess Plateau (3 10 x 10~3km^2) is divided into 292 erosion units. And taking theerosion modulus > 5000t/km^2 as a criterion, the emphasis control area (149 x 10~3km^2) of the LoessPlateau is demarked, and is divided into 10 control regions. The controllable area and the locationof control measures are conformed. Level terraces are mainly collocated on the 3° ―15° slopes,woodland and grassland are collocated on the > 15° slopes, and the proportion of woodland tograssland is 8: 2 in the forest belt, 5: 5 in the forest steppe belt, and 2: 8 in the steppe belt.The 9000 combinations of soil-water conservation measures in different rainfall conditions areobtained by the permutation and combination method, according to the 9 rainfall frequencies and thecontrollable areas of level terrace, woodland and grassland at 10% of control progress rate. Thequality standards of level terrace, woodland and grassland are ascertained. The evaluation indexesof soil-water conservation benefits of level terrace, woodland and grassland are establishedrespectively in the condition that rainfall index is higher than that of erosive index of slopingfield. Based on the results above, the sediment reducing benefit and soil erosion modulus in thedifferent rainfall conditions and control degrees are analyzed, which could provide adecision-making basis for soil-water loss control on the Loess Plateau.
基金National Key Project of ScientificTechnical Supporting Programs Funded by Ministry of Science & Technology of China during the 11th Five-Year Plan Period (Grant No. 2006BCA01A07-2).
文摘Morlet wavelet transformation is used in this paper to analyze the multi time scale characteristics of pre cipitation data series from 1957 to 2005 in Guyuan region.The results showed that(1) the annual precipitation evo lution process had obvious multi time scale variation characteristics of 15 25 years,7 12 years and 3 6 years,and different time scales had different oscillation energy densities;(2) the periods at smaller time scales changed more frequently,which often nested in a biggish quasi periodic oscillations,so the concrete time domain should be ana lyzed if necessary;(3) the precipitation had three main periods(22 year,9 year and 4 year) and the 22 year period was especially outstanding,and the analysis of this main period reveals that the precipitation would be in a relative high water period until about 2012.
基金Research on short-term climate prediction model for rainfall in raining seasons of Fujian Province A Natural Science Foundation project for Fujian Province (D9810010)
文摘Relationship between the variations of West Pacific subtropical high indices in the summer half of the year and preceding SST in North Pacific was examined based on a data set of 1951 2000. The correlation between the subtropical high indices and preceding SST in the equatorial East Pacific was the strongest among the others, and has great persistency from last autumn to spring. It is indicated that ENSO events appeared about six months earlier than the change of the subtropical high activities, and the subtropical high intensities enhanced (weakened) and western ridge point was westward (eastward) in the year of El Nino (La Nina) events. It was also observed that there were similar interdecadal oscillation and abrupt variations between Nino3 SST, subtropical high intensities and rainfall of rainy season in Fujian. Therefore, experiments were made on rainfall distribution of rainy season in Fujian. The results showed that the distribution was directly affected by the subtropical high activities, pronouncedly caused by ENSO effect.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41401226 and 41190080)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2015M570865) joint support this work
文摘There are numerous lakes on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),but the role of lake temperature in precipitation over the TP remains unclear.Here the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model was used to detect the impact of lakes on summer rainfall.Three test cases were used to evaluate the effect of lakes surface temperature(LSTs) on precipitation variability.The three cases used different methods to determine initial LSTs,including using sea surface temperature data(SST),the WRF inland water module(avg_tsfc),and a lake model.Results show that when precipitation was stimulated over the TP,LSTs cannot be initialized using SST,which led to large discrepancies of precipitation.Compared with the simulations,the simulated precipitation were improved obviously with LSTs using avg_tsfc,indicating that LSTs have an considerable influence on determining precipitation over the TP.Due to a lack of observational data,the lake scheme does not improve on rainfall simulation,but does effectively simulate precipitation pattern over lakes,such as rainfall over the lakes was dominated by convection during the nighttime.Though the simulated precipitation using SST to initialize LSTs caused largediscrepancies,it suggested that precipitation increase especially convective precipitation with increase in LSTs,which confirmed that the moisture from lakes cannot be neglected over the TP.Generally,it was necessary to monitor the LSTs for accurate weather and climate prediction over the TP.
基金Dedicated Research Fund for Public Interest from the Ministry of Science andTechnology(2002DIA20013)"973" Key Project from the Ministry of Science and Technology (2004CB418305)
文摘Using the new formula of moist available energy (MAE), the value of the MAE’s key terms ofthree heavy rainfall cases in Guangdong province in 1998 was calculated. The energetic aggregation andenergetic discharge are analyzed. It shows that the value of the key terms in the formula appears different featureclearly in the different precipitation period, as well as the function of each term presents in the heavy rain region.
基金Supported by Key Program of Chongqing Meteorological Bureau(ywgg-201217)~~
文摘[Objective] The aim was to provide references for development of industries engaging in flowers and trees in Beipei area in Chongqing. [Method] The occurring trend, intensity trend of summer drought, relationship of intensity with rainfall and extremely highest temperature, occurring trend during initial period of summer drought and the effects in mountain cities were analyzed, based on information on lasting period, rainfall, average temperature, extremely highest temperature of sum- mer drought in Beipei area in mountain cities during 1981-2010 and, growth condi- tion and phenological phenomena of Michelia champaca during 2005-2007. [Result] The occurring probability of summer drought in mountain cities was 57% and the probabilities of light, moderate, heavy and extreme drought were 30%, 10%, 7% and 10%; intensity of summer drought was none of linear relation with rainfall and ex- tremely highest temperature. In summer drought, daily average rainfall was less than 0.9 ram; extremely highest temperature was 35.0-45.0 ℃ with probability at 30%; initial period of summer drought was from later June to middle August and of extreme drought was later June-later July; the ending period was early September. During drought, when the extremely highest temperature (〉35.0 ℃) occurred in three days within a Hou, flowers and trees were affected by the hot drought and when the extreme temperature (〉40.0 ℃) occurred in three days within a Hou, the plants were seriously affected. [Conclusion] Based on characters of summer drought, pre- cautions can be taken to reduce effects of summer drought on flowers and trees with the help of weather forecast.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41771207,No.41171069
文摘Soil erosion has become a major global environmental problem and is particularly acute on the Loess Plateau(LP), China. It is therefore highly important to control this process in order to improve ecosystems, protect ecological security, and maintain the harmonious relationship between humans and nature. We compared the effects of rainfall and land use(LU) patterns on soil erosion in different LP watersheds in this study in order to augment and improve soil erosion models. As most research on this theme has so far been focused on individual study areas, limited analyses of rainfall and LU patterns on soil erosion within different-scale watersheds has so far been performed, a discrepancy which might influence the simulation accuracies of soil erosion models. We therefore developed rainfall and LU pattern indices in this study using the soil erosion evaluation index as a reference and applied them to predict the extent of this process in different-scale watersheds, an approach which is likely to play a crucial role in enabling the comprehensive management of this phenomenon as well as the optimized design of LU patterns. The areas considered in this study included the Qingjian, Fenchuan, Yanhe, and Dali river watersheds. Results showed that the rainfall erosivity factor(R) tended to increase in these areas from 2006 to 2012, while the vegetation cover and management factor(C) tended to decrease. Results showed that as watershed area increased, the effect of rainfall pattern on soil erosion gradually decreased while patterns in LU trended in the opposite direction, as the relative proportion of woodland decreased and the different forms of steep slope vegetation cover became more homogenous. As watershed area increased, loose soil and craggy terrain properties led to additional gravitational erosion and enhanced the effects of both soil and topography.