能量综合和工艺同时优化的经济学方法

本文以一个聚合物分离过程系统为工业背景，在分析和经济学应用的基础上，运用三环节能量综合方法进行了能量综合和工艺同时优化，即能耗和物耗目标同时优化的研究，结果表明：三环节方法能成功地运用于这种情况．对背景过程的研究所形成的改进方案，可在投资回收期不到一年的条件下，使能耗降低６０％，主要溶剂消耗量减少８７％．

Optimal configuration of firewall, IDS and vulnerability scan by game theory

The integrated linkage control problem based on attack detection is solved with the analyses of the security model including firewall, intrusion detection system （IDS） and vulnerability scan by game theory. The Nash equilibrium for two portfolios of only deploying IDS and vulnerability scan and deploying all the technologies is investigated by backward induction. The results show that when the detection rates of IDS and vulnerability scan are low, the firm will not only inspect every user who raises an alarm, but also a fraction of users that do not raise an alarm; when the detection rates of IDS and vulnerability scan are sufficiently high, the firm will not inspect any user who does not raise an alarm, but only inspect a fraction of users that raise an alarm. Adding firewall into the information system impacts on the benefits of firms and hackers, but does not change the optimal strategies of hackers, and the optimal investigation strategies of IDS are only changed in certain cases. Moreover, the interactions between IDS ＆ vulnerability scan and firewall ＆ IDS are discussed in detail.

Antecedents and performance consequences of governance structures in R&D alliances

Traditionally governance structures are classified into ＂hierarchy or market＂ or ＂equity or non-equity.＂ However,such classifications may not be effective in characterizing all governance structures of research and development（R D） alliances.Therefore,the first objective of this study is to investigate why there exist different organizational governance structures in managing R D alliances;the second objective of this study is to give strategic advice in choosing appropriate forms with respect to various characteristics of R D alliances.Through the theoretical lens that integrate both transaction cost economics（TCE） and the resource-based view（RBV）,a model that focuses on six major factors is developed for determining governance structure choices,namely,technological uncertainty,cultural difference,asset specificity,technology complementarity,appropriability of the individual firm＇s know-how,and trust.An R D alliance with higher technological uncertainty,larger cultural differences,and greater concerns for protecting an individual＇s know-how is more likely to adopt non-integrated alliances as the governing structure.An R D alliance with a higher degree of asset-specificity,greater technology complementarity and greater trust among partnering organizations is more likely to adopt integrated alliances as the governing structure;an R D alliance in the face of lower technological uncertainty will tend to adopt integrated alliances.The more aligned the choice of the governance structure with its determinants,the better the R D alliance will perform,and vice versa.

Primary Research on WSeveral Theorems,Laws and Corollaries of Hydrology

The conceptions of theorems, laws and corollaries of hydrology were put forward. Combining with hydrology practice, several theo- rems, laws as well as corollaries of hydrology were summarized. The study provided some references for accelerating the development of hydrology theory in these aspects and promoting the improvement of its production technology.

Application of thermal parameter soft sensor in power plant

In order to solve the problem of the invalidation of thermal parameters andoptimal running, we present an efficient soft sensor approach based on sparse online Gaussianprocesses( GP), which is based on a combination of a Bayesian online algorithm together with asequential construction of a relevant subsample of the data to specify the prediction of the GPmodel. By an appealing parameterization and projection techniques that use the reproducing kernelHubert space (RKHS) norm, recursions for the effective parameters and a sparse Gaussianapproximation of the posterior process are obtained. The sparse representation of Gaussian processesmakes the GP-based soft sensor practical in a large dataset and real-time application. And theproposed thermalparameter soft sensor is of importance for the economical running of the powerplant.

Identification of Quality Characteristics of Sun-cured Tobacco Leaves

[Objective] The aim was to explore tobacco varieties which satisfy tobacco formula and is suitable to be grown in ecotopes simultaneously. [Method] Interior and exterior qualities of tobacco were compared and identified based on agronomic and economic characters of tobacco in fields. [Result] Yunshai No.1 was better in both agronomic and economic characters. Specifically, the fragrance was dominated by empyreumatique and aroma; the highly-qualified variety is fragrant and sweet, with little irritation, which gives the tobacco smoke a light, mild flavor. As for Virgini- a934, economic characters were better, but agronomic characters were just ordinary. Similar to Yunshai No.l, dominated by empyreumatique and aroma, the variety was with distinctive resin and herbaceous fragrance. What＇s more, it tasted good with high quality and usability. Cunsanpi was ordinary in agronomic characters, and poor in economic characters, with coordinated quality and chemical composition. It is fra- grant and the smoke is clean. However, the quality was not so high and it tasted not so good. Tengruan No.2 was good in agronomic characters, but poor in eco- nomic characters, which gives delicate fragrance, but not clean enough. Waiweiba and Mijie Qinggeng neither taste well nor smell sweet, performing ordinary in agro- nomic and economic characters. Hence, the two varieties seem bad in quality and ranks poorly. [Conclusion] In terms of sensory quality, the varieties from high to low were Yunshai No.1, Virginia 934, Cunsanpi, Tengruan No.2, Waiweiba and Mijie Qinggeng.

Analysis of the major components of root exudates released from several economic forest tree using GC-MS

In 2000 and 2001, 1-year-old seedlings of 7 economic tree species including chestnut, apricot, persimmon, peach, walnut, pear and apple were cultured in garden pots that had a diameter of 40 cm and were filled with clean sand. The major components of exudates released from their roots were isolated and analysed by GC-MS. Totally 200 kinds of organic chemicals were isolated, of which 3 kinds i.e. naphthalene, dimethylbenzene and dibutyl phthalate were principally controlled pollutants according to 'Blacklist of Principal Environment Pollutants in China' and the standard of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The research result provided theoretical evidence for selecting low-pollution economic forest crops in the water source protection area in Miyun Reservoir.

Creative Industries Agglomeration,Regional Innovation and Productivity Growth in China

This paper falls into the broad area of economic geography and economics of creativity,and it presents an alternative approach to explain why total factor productivity(TFP)growth is different across China′s regions.It establishes an empirical model to estimate the spatial agglomeration effects of creative industries on regional TFP growth,using China′s provincial panel data during the period of 2003 to 2010.We found that the creative industries agglomeration(CIA)has significant and positive impact on regional TFP growth.The result also implies that the CIA can facilitate regional TFP growth through promoting regional innovation instead of improving regional efficiency.Therefore,we argue that policy makers should take some measures to retain and establish more creative zones.

Method for Evaluating the Degrees of Land Use Sustainability of Mountainous County and its Application in Yunnan Province,China

The evaluation of sustainable land use is the key issue in the field of studying the sustainable land utilization. In general analysis, the sustainable land use is evaluated respectively from its ecological sustainability, economic sustainability and social sustainability in China and other countries in recent years. Although this evaluation is an important work, it seems insufficient and hard to comprehensively reflect the whole degree of land use sustainability. Thus, to make up this deficiency, this paper brings forward the evaluation indexes, which make it possible to quantitatively reflect the whole degree of land use sustainability, namely, the concept of ＂degrees of overall land use sustainability＂ （Dos）, and research and measurement development of the method of and calculation in Dos. Taking the evaluation of the degree of land use sustainability in county regions of Yunnan Province as the actual example for analysis, results are basically as follows： 1） The degree of land use sustainability （Dos） is the ration index to organically and systematically integrate the degree of ecological friendliness （DeF）, the degree of economic viability （Dev） and the degree of social acceptability （Dsa）, able to comprehensively reflect the whole sustainability degree of regional land use 2） Based on the value of Dos, the grading system and standard for the sustainability of land use may be established and totally divided into five grades, namely, the high-degree sustainability, middle-degree sustainability, low-degree sustainability, conditional sustainability and non-sustainability. Meanwhile, the standard for distinguishing sustainability grades has also been confirmed so as to determine the nature of sustainability degrees in different grades. This makes the possibility for the combination of nature determination with ration in research result and provides with the scientific guideline and decision-making gist for better implementation of sustainable land use strategy. 3） The practice in evaluation of sustainability degree in county regional land use in Yunnan shows that the value of the degree of land use sustainability （Dos） of whole Yunnan Province is only 58.39, belonging to the grade of low-degree sustainability. Two thirds of counties in the whole province represent the grade of ＂conditional sustainability＂ and ＂non-sustainability＂ in the sustainability of land use. Among these counties, 11.11 % shows ＂non- sustainability＇. The lowest degree of land use sustainability appears especially in the middle plateau mountain region of Northeast Yunnan, where the value of Dos in most counties （districts） is below 40 %, belonging to the grade of ＂non-sustainability＂. The sustainability degree in the karst mountainous region in lower-middle plateau mountain region in Southeast Yunnan is generally low and the value of sustainability degree （Dos） in most of the counties （cities and districts） is below 55. The value of sustainability degree （Dos） in most of the counties （cities and districts） in the north, west, northwest and southwest parts of Yunnan is below 55. This article also analyzes the reasons of low degree of sustainability in land use in Yunnan and puts forward the countermeasures to increase the degree of sustainability in land use in the whole province.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of early veno-venous hemofiltration for severe acute pancreatitis in China

AIM： To determine the most cost-effective hemofiltration modality for early management of severe acute pancreatitis （SAP） in China. METHODS： We carried out a search of Pub-Medline and Chinese Biomedical Disk database. Controlled clinical trials on Chinese population were included in the analysis. The four decision branches that were analyzed were： continuous or long-term veno-venous hemofiltration （CVVH/LVVH）, short-term veno-venous hemofiltration （SVVH）, SVVH plus peritoneal dialysis （PD）, and non-hemofiltration control group. The effectiveness of the technique was determined by survival rate, complications prevention and surgery preservation. The total cost of hospitalization was also assessed. RESULTS： The SVVH only technique was the least costly modality, $5809 （44449 RMB）, and was selected as the baseline treatment modality. SVVH only arm achieved the lowest C/E ratio in terms of overall survival, complications prevention and surgery preservation. In incremental cost-effectiveness analysis, the CWH/ LVVH only and the control arms were inferior to other techniques. Sensitivity analysis showed SVVH only and SVVH plus PD arms overlapped in C/survival ratio. CONCLUSION： The role of early veno-venous hemofiltration as an alternative therapy for SAP remains controversial. However, we propose that early use of short-term high-volume veno-venous hemofiltration would have a beneficial impact on the management of SAP.

SCENARIOS SIMULATION OF COUPLING SYSTEM BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND ECO-ENVIRONMENT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

By means of ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) and SD (System Dynamics) methods, this paper made a system dynamics model of urbanization and eco-environment coupling in Jiangsu Province according to the implication and PSR (Pressure State Response) framework of urbanization and eco-environment coupling. Moreover, five typical scenarios during 2000-2015 have been simulated and analyzed based on the time serial statistical data during 1990-2003 in Jiangsu, which indicates: firstly, there are significant differences between the results and the scenarios, and the five coupling models all have comparative advantages and drawbacks; secondly, in terms of the characteristics and regional development disparities of Jiangsu and the general rule of world urbanization process, this paper reveals that only when either population urbanization model or social urbanization model to be correspondingly adopted, the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and eco-environment can be realized.

RESIDENTS' ATTITUDES TO TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN ANCIENT VILLAGE RESORTS——Case Study of World Cultural Heritage of Xidi and Hong Villages

Tourism development surely has social, economic and environmental impacts on tourist destinations.The study on resorts residents' attitudes can help understand the nature of tourism development and the extent to which it may influence on tourist destinations. By now, researches on residents' perception and attitudes are plenteous in the international circle and achievements are great, yet few are found in developing countries. As a most representative cultural tourist destination, World Cultural Heritage-Xidi and Hong villages in Yi County of Anhui Province, are drawing the attention of both tourists and academic circles. This article, taking Xidi and Hong villages as examples, seeks to analyze ancient village residents' attitudes towards tourism impacts and then tries further to explore the connection between tourism development and residents' attitudes. Both qualitative and quantitative surveys are applied in the exploratory investigation into local residents' attitudes of tourism impacts. Based on abundant face-to-face interviews with the local households, tourism enterprises concerned, local government and tourists from July to August of 2002, we are able to have a better understanding of local residents' attitudes to community life, and perception of tourism impacts on society, economy and environment. By this we can promote domestic study on resorts residents' attitudes, and provide some theoretical grounds for establishing tourism development planning and perfect community participation system at tourist destinations.

Economic polarized trends,function and expanded boundaries of the Yangtze Delta Region

In the era of economic globalization,the concept of Economic Polarized Area comes into being as an effective vehicle to agglomerate the economic elements and sustain the economic lifeline of the region. Based on the region's specific development mode and construction form the concept is working in such a way that it will contribute to guide the economic development of the country and will play an important role in competing with other regions or countries in the world. Due to the high speed development of the last 30 years,the Yangtze Delta Region starts to show the features of Economic Polarized Area. But,compared with other world-class Economic Polarized Areas,the economic strength and the ability of the Yangtze Delta Region to drive the country's economic development is still very low and the competitive power is still very limited. Expanding the boundaries of the Economic Polarized Area of the Yangtze Delta may extend the economic hinterland of the core area of the Yangtze Delta Region,will lighten the pressures from the limited resource and promote the rationalization of the industrial structure in the Yangtze Delta Region's core area. With regard to the reasonable boundaries of the Yangtze Delta Region,there are different opinions and controversial arguments in political and academic circles. Starting from the idea of increasing the competitive power and improving the economic strength of the Yangtze Delta Region,the paper firstly is discussing the requirements to become a world-class Economic Polarized Area. In a second step an analysis of functional complementation and economic collaboration between the cities of an "extended" Yangtze Delta Region has been carried out by in particular considering the feasibility of integrating these "newly included" cities. The final result of the study is,that the Region should be expanded from the number of 16 cities to 37 cities,and the appended cities should be divided up into two categories:Wenzhou,Jinhua,Yancheng,Huaian,Maanshan,Wuhu,Tongling,Chaohu,Hefei,Chuzhou,Xuancheng should be taken as Preferred Extending Area,and Suqian,Xuzhou,Lianyungang,Lishui,Quzhou,Chizhou,Anqing,Bengbu,Huangshan,Suzhou (Anhui Province) should be taken as Retained Qualification Area.

Feasible economic strategies to improve screening compliance for colorectal cancer in Korea

ABM: While colorectal cancer (CRC) is an ideal target for population screening, physician and patient attitudes contribute to low levels of screening uptake. This study was carried out to find feasible economic strategies to improve the CRC screening compliance in Korea. METHODS: The natural history of a simulated cohort of 50-year-old Korean in the general population was modeled with CRC screening until the age of 80 years. Cases of positive results were worked up with colonoscopy. After polypectomy, colonoscopy was repeated every 3 years. Baseline screening compliance without insurance coverage by the national health insurance (NHI) was assumed to be 30%. If NHI covered the CRC screening or the reimbursement of screening to physicians increased, the compliance was assumed to increase. We evaluated 16 different CRC screening strategies based on Markov model. RESULTS: When the NHI did not cover the screening and compliance was 30%, non-dominated strategies were colonoscopy every 5 years (COL5) and colonoscopy every 3 years (COL3). In all scenarios of various compliance rates with raised coverage of the NHI and increased reimbursement of colonoscopy, COL10, COL5 and COL3 were non-dominated strategies, and COL10 had lower or minimal incremental medical cost and financial burden on the NHI than the strategy of no screening. These results were stable with sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Economic strategies for promoting screening compliance can be accompanied by expanding insurance coverage by the NHI and by increasing reimbursement for CRC screening to providers. COL10 was a cost-effective and cost saving screening strategy for CRC in Korea.

CHINA'S REGIONAL DISPARITY IN 1981-2000:OPENNESS AND DEVELOPMENT OF NON-STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES AND FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION

While China's economic growth has been impressive since 1978, regional disparity in terms of provincial per capita GDP has been increasing. On the other hand, this rapid but uneven growth was accompanied by China's deepening openness and structural reforms including the development of non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) and fiscal decentralization. Based on quantitative analyses, this paper tries to explore the features of regional disparity in China and the relationships between regional growth and China's openness and economic structure reforms in the period from 1981 to 2000. The paper finds that the catching-up of the coastal region to the initially rich provinces, which are mainly located in inland areas, brought about a convergence of the growth pattern across provinces in the 1980s.The subsequent divergence in the provincial growth rates between the coast and the interior generated an enlarging regional disparity in China in the 1990s. The ever-faster growth in the coastal region was benefited by China's openness and the development of non-state-owned enterprises. The development of non-state-owned enterprises underlies the higher operational efficiency in the coastal region. Additionally, with the insignificant regression results, fiscal decentralization was observed to facilitate faster growth in the coast region. The findings justify the initiative of the 'West Region Development Strategy' and offer some policy implications for China.

A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIYUN RESERVOIR AREA, CHINA

Miyun Reservoir was designated as the water source of Beijing City in 1982. Since that time, socio economic development in Miyun Area has been slowing due to the restriction of severe environmental standards. More and more attention from the public and government has been paid to the regional sustainable development. And an effective planning for the local society management system is urgently desired. In this study, a regional sustainable development system dynamics model, named MiyunSD, is developed for supporting this planning task. MiyunSD consists of dynamic simulation models that explicitly consider information feedback that governs interactions in the system. Such models are capable of simulating the system′s behavior and predicting its developing situation of the future. For the study case, interactions among a number of system components within a time frame of fifteen years are examined dynamically. Three planning alternatives are carefully considered. The base run is based on an assumption that the existing pattern of human activities will prevail in the entire planning horizon, and the other alternatives are based on previous and present planning studies. The different alternatives will get different system′s environmental and socio economic results. Through analyzing these dynamic results, local authorities may find an optimal way to realize the objectives that the regional environment will be well protected and at the same time the economy will be rapidly developed.

Forecasting Model of Coal Requirement Quantity Based on Grey System Theory

The generally used methods of forecasting coal requirement quantity include the analogy method, the outside push method and the cause effect analysis method. However, the precision of forecasting results using these methods is lower. This paper uses the grey system theory, and sets up grey forecasting model GM (1, 3) to coal requirement quantity. The forecasting result for the Chinese coal requirement quantity coincides with the actual values, and this shows that the model is reliable. Finally, this model are used to forecast Chinese coal requirement quantity in the future ten years.

Modification of Costanza's model of valuing ecosystem services and its application in China

In the past,evaluations of ecosystem functions were mostly based on Costanza's model,whereas the spatial,quality and temporal characteristics of regional ecosystems were not considered in the model.Focusing on these issues,coefficients of regional difference,spatial heterogeneity and willingness-to-pay(WTP)were established to modify Costanza's model,and a new comprehensive valuation model of ecosystem functions is proposed.The analytical results indicate that the comprehensive model could evaluate regional ecosystem functions in China accurately and provide more helpful information for decision-making.The empirical study on Zhangbei County in Hebei Province shows that the intensive human activities could limit the provision of ecosystem functions while the planned ecological programs might promote the restoration of ecosystem functions.

R/S AND WAVELET ANALYSIS ON EVOLUTIONARYPROCESS OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC DISPARITY IN CHINA DURING PAST 50 YEARS

This paper shows the dynamic process of regional disparity of economic development in China in the past 50 years from a new insight by using the rescaled range statistic (R/S) analysis and wavelet analysis of the Theil index sequence with different time scales. The main conclusions are: 1) The regional disparity of economic development in China, including the inter-provincial disparity, inter-regional disparity and intra-regional disparity, has existed for many years. Theil index by the comparative price has revealed the true trend for comparative disparity of regional economic development from 1952 to 2000. 2) Decomposition of Theil index indicates that the dynamic trend of comparative inter-provincial disparity in the coastal region is in line with dynamic trend of inter-provincial disparity in the whole China. 3) The R/S analysis results tell us that during 1966-1978, the Hurst exponent H=0.504 approximate to 0.5, which indicates that in that period the evolution of comparative inter-provincial disparity of economic development showed a random characteristic, and in the other periods, i.e. 1952-1965, 1979-1990 and 1991-2000, the Hurst exponent H>0.5, which indicates that in those periods the evolution of the comparative inter-provincial disparity of economic development in China had a long-enduring characteristic. 4) By using wavelet analysis at different time scale, we arrived at a conclusion that the evolutionary process of the disparity of economic development of China is not a simple inverted U shape but a compound of several U shapes. The result tells us that the evolutionary plot of inter-provincial disparity in China follows the inverted U on the whole at the higher scale, 24 ( 16 years). That is to say, the disparity tends to rise in the first stage of economic development, and fall slowly over the peak in the second stage of economic development. However, if we shorten the time scale to 23 ( 8 years), then a link of several U shapes will appear.

Study on the efficacy of the safety incentive mechanisms

Safety incentive mechanism and corresponding motivation avenues are helpful and important for the scientific safety management in coal mine. With the help of modern systematic analysis method, the efficacy of safety incentive mechanisms is discussed in detail. The research shows that more effective avenue to reduce accident is to differently use motivation measures in practice.