Study of evaluation method for the overseas oil and gas investment based on risk compensation

The overseas oil and gas investment evaluation is one of the core tasks in overseas investment of oil and gas companies,among which risk evaluation and benefit evaluation are the most important.This paper sets forth transmission paths of risk factors to the investment benefit by identifying 14 overseas oil and gas investment risks in four categories.On the basis of the concept of risk compensation,different compensation mechanisms specific to each risk are designed.The risk and benefit are integrated objectively to develop a comprehensive evaluation model by correcting the recoverable reserve,adjusting benefit evaluation parameters such as investments on exploration and development,and compensating for the changes in risk factors with time through dynamic discount rate.Moreover,two cases studies,namely the evaluations of Project A in Sudan and comparison among Blocks A–G,are used to describe usage method and applicable scope of such evaluation model,respectively.According to the results,oil price is a key influencing factor for enterprise internal risk and industrial risk.Risk compensation reduces comprehensive benefit of overseas oil and gas investment and undermines the investment feasibility and priority of blocks.The research findings of this paper are free from the effects of some subject factors and avoid multi-objective decision making,and also avoid the undesired repeated calculation of risk factors.

Evaluation and Forecasting of Wind Energy Investment Risk along the Belt and Road Based on a Novel Hybrid Intelligent Model

The timely and effective investment risk assessment and forecasting are of great significance to ensure the investment safety and sustainable development of wind energy along the Belt and Road.In order to obtain the scientific and real-time forecasting result,this paper constructs a novel hybrid intelligent model based on improved cloud model combined with GRA-TOPSIS and MBA-WLSSVM.Firstly,the factors influencing investment risk of wind energy along the Belt and Road are identified fromthree dimensions:endogenous risk,exogenous risk and process risk.Through the fuzzy threshold method,the final input index system is selected.Secondly,the risk evaluation method based on improved cloud model andGRA-TOPSIS is proposed.Thirdly,a modern intelligent model based on MBA-WLSSVMis designed.In modified bat algorithm(MBA),tent chaotic map is utilized to improve the basic bat algorithm,while weighted least squares support vector machine(WLSSVM)adopts wavelet kernel function to replace the traditional radial basis function to complete the model improvement.Finally,an example is given to verify the scientificity and accuracy of themodel,which is helpful for investors tomake fast and effective investment risk forecasting of wind energy along the Belt and Road.The example analysis proves that the proposedmodel can provide reference and basis for investment corpus to formulate the investment strategy in wind energy along the Belt and Road.

Investment risk evaluation of existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO

The investment risk management of the existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO cannot be separated from the scientific risk measurement and evaluation. The investment risk assessment is the basis of investment decision and project implementation. Based on the content analysis and balance of evaluation principle of investment risk evaluation on the existing building energy-saving renovation project, we set up three levels of existing building energy-saving renovation project investment risk evaluation index system, use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the quantitative process, get the scientific assessment of the investment risk of existing building energy-saving renovation project, and support the investment risk response strategy and control measures of existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO.

Evaluation of power market designs on investment incentives and capacity adequacy

Electricity industry restructuring should not sacrifice supply security to pursue economic efficiency. Till now there is no academic consensus on which electricity market design provides the least distorting investment incentives. Alternative approaches that have been adopted around the world for ensuring the appropriate level of investment in electric generation capacity are discussed, and much attention is devoted on the evaluation of capacity payment systems. The finding is that on one hand, capacity payment systems have good effect on reducing spot market price volatility and increasing the volume of generating capacity at the costs of relatively high total electricity prices; on the other hand, however, they are not robust against either the abuse of market power in the energy market or being manipulated.

The Application of Case Method in the Teaching of Investment Project Evaluation

Case Method originated in the 1920s and was initiated by Harvard Business School in the United States.At that time,it adopted a unique style of case study,which was based on real situations or events in business management,in this way,it is helpful to cultivate and develop students’active participation in class discussion.For investment students,specialized courses such as Investment Project Evaluation and corporate finance are concentrated in the upper grades,and in the freshman,sophomore phase has completed the Finance,finance,macroeconomics and other basic courses.On the basis of students’existing knowledge structure,the course“Investment Project Evaluation”needs to fully tap students’potential in learning and train students’practical problem-solving ability,to cultivate students’thinking ability of combining theoretical knowledge with practical cases,to avoid the teaching mode of“I tell you to listen”,and to guide students to think,analyze and solve problems actively.

The Risk Evaluation of Agricultural High-tech Investment Project

The agricultural high-tech investment project (AHIP) is characterized by technology-intensive, high risk and great profit. This article analyzes essential factors of the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the traditional risk evaluation method of agricultural projects. We think that the applications of the sensitivity analysis and probability are defective. Therefore, this article introduces a structural model to evaluate the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the system of the concrete evaluation indexes.

Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment

Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent.By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return,together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent is established.The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.

基于InVEST模型的四川省宜宾市2010—2020年碳承载力评价

[目的]探究城市碳承载力基底,为城市“双碳”目标实现和低碳发展提供科学支撑。[方法]基于2000,2005,2010,2015,2020年四川省宜宾市土地利用数据,通过InVEST模型测度了宜宾市生境质量和碳储存量,构建了宜宾市碳承载力评价指标体系,对宜宾市的碳承载力水平进行深度地分析研究。[结果]宜宾市碳承载力呈现“先提升,后下降,再提升”的变化特征,2000,2005,2010,2015,2020年宜宾市碳承载力得分分别为0.5254,0.6061,0.5064,0.3853,0.5534。生境退化程度持续加深,生境质量指数呈现“先提升,后下降,再提升”的变化特征。碳储存量指数持续上升,碳储存速率持续下降。宜宾市碳承载力复合系统由2000年的失调状态逐渐转变为2020年的中级协调。[结论]宜宾市碳承载力水平整体处于上升趋势,但局部地区碳储量和生境质量下滑较为严重。

Extension Study on Electricity Market of Power Plant Investment Environment

When the global electricity industry has reorganized the structure and introduced competitive market mechanism world widely, China is no exception. Since 2002, “Electricity System Reform Program” was enacted. The mode of the State Power Corporation was divided. It means China's electricity market steps into the mode of Wholesale Competition. The meaning of the evaluation of power plant investment decision is to provide references for the market members when they made the decisions through the comprehensive evaluation of internal performance of Power Plant and the external investment environment, therefore further optimizing the allocation of funds, avoiding the risks, pursuing maximize of the profits.

Rural Public Investment and Benefit in Sichuan's Hilly and Mountainous Areas

Using representative sampling survey data,we take the case of roads,domestic water,irrigation facilities,clinics and schools,to give an overview of the status quo of rural public investment in Sichuan's hilly and mountainous areas in the period 2005 -2008; conduct comprehensive analysis of public investment benefit,from the status quo of supply and demand,social benefit and villagers' satisfaction. The results show that the social benefit arising from the construction of road projects is good,while the social benefit arising from the construction of irrigation facilities is poor; the matching effect of supply and demand of public investment is poor,especially for the investment in irrigation facilities; on the whole,villagers' satisfaction with public investment has been promoted,but most of the villagers are still unsatisfied with the current irrigation facilities. The major capital source of rural public investment is from the government,but from the perspective of the villagers' demand,we should further increase the public financial input.

Investment Risks of Agricultural Listed Companies from Visual Angle of Natural Disasters

The essential feature of agriculture is the interweave- ment of natural reproduction and economic reproduction.In recent years,the natural disasters have become more frequent and badly affect the production management and investment benefits.This problem has been an important risk in managing agricultural listed companies and cannot be ignored.It is of great importance to evaluate and prevent the risks of the natural disasters to enhance the competitive ability and increase the profits of those listed companies,thereby keeping the sustainable development of agri- cultural companies.

Agricultural Investment Environment in Shaanxi Province

The features of ageing,low educational level and female domination on the part of agricultural labor forces,determine that the sustainable development of agriculture can not rely entirely on farmers,who are engaged in dispersed planting and small-scale operation,therefore,improving agricultural investment environment,and taking positive measures to promote diversification of the main body of agricultural investment,is the key to the healthy development of agriculture.From four aspects(the industrial base of agriculture,arable land resource conditions,capital investment capacity,input of means of production),this article establishes evaluation indicator system of agricultural investment environment in Shaanxi Province,and based on this,make recommendations for improvement of agricultural investment environment in Shaanxi.

基于InVEST和生态风险评估模型耦合的湿地生态风险评价——以吉林省为例

湿地是生态系统的重要组成部分,在保护生物多样性和区域经济发展等方面发挥着不可替代的作用。基于生态系统外部危险性和内部脆弱性,选取了21个关键评价指标,耦合InVEST模型产水量模块和生态风险评估模型,构建生态系统评价体系,估算吉林省湿地生态风险指数,实现吉林省湿地生态风险空间分布特征模拟,为湿地生态保护与建设提供建议。结果表明:吉林省湿地生态风险指数从东至西呈现先升后降的趋势,各市的风险指数排序为:四平市>辽源市>长春市>吉林市>松原市>通化市>延边朝鲜自治州>白山市>白城市,高值区主要集中在西南地区;吉林省应采取更具有针对性的政策和措施,加强对较高风险地区的保护,为维护生态平衡和促进区域社会经济发展提供有力保障。

An Investment Decision Support System for Process Industries

Most studies on investment evaluation mainly focus on enterprise economic benefits only, without process operability and sustainability considered. In this paper, we suggest that investment evaluation in process industries should be executed under three strategic objectives--enterprise benefits, social benefits and customer benefits. A systematic investment evaluation and decision-making method with a four-step procedure based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed to evaluate various qualitative and quantitative elements with various criteria. At the first step, the decision hierarchy is constructed under the three strategic objectives. Second, pair-wise comparison is utilized to evaluate the weights of elements and criteria. Third, qualitative elements are quantified by pair-wise comparison and quantitative elements are re-scaled by a uniform criterion. At the last, the best choice is made through synthesizing values upward in the hierarchy. An investment decision support system (DSS) is developed based on Microsoft Excel, and applied to a retrofit investment of united fluid catalytic cracking(FCC) and liquefied gas separation process in a refinery plant.

政府投资基金绩效管理的评价体系构建

对政府投资基金绩效评价研究进行综述,分析当前政府投资基金绩效评价存在的问题,通过引入3E绩效评价理论,结合地方政府实践探索,按照经济性(economy)、效率(efficiency)、效果(effectiveness)目标诉求的绩效指标生成逻辑,进行分级提取,基于多维度、全周期的绩效评价构建体系,以期为各级政府投资基金绩效评价工作提供参考。

个人养老金一周年评估与前瞻——基于一个理论框架的分析

全面建成多层次、多支柱养老保险体系是贯彻落实党中央国务院关于积极应对人口老龄化决策部署的重要举措。在个人养老金正式实施一周年之际,本文试图构建一个理论评估框架,对个人养老金一年来的市场表现做一多维度评估。根据该评估框架提出的“模式评估法”,个人养老金覆盖率的表现超出预期,已基本实现“可替代模式”的制度目标;根据“本土政策评估法”,覆盖率达20.2%,成绩不俗;根据“国际流行评估法”,覆盖率为15.2%,差距不大。与试点五年半的税延型商业养老保险相比,个人养老金覆盖率出现一个质的飞跃。但是,波动的资本市场致使个人养老金制度正陷入一个怠惰性有余、活跃性不足的低效状态,抵消良好的覆盖率表现的制度功能,对未来个人养老金替代率的负面影响将是深远和致命的。个人养老金的制度属性和市场特征意味着,中国养老金体系改革将从完善制度设计的纯粹“单轮驱动”正向完善制度设计与完善资本市场相结合的“双轮驱动”阶段转变,未来可期。