Fourth-Order Predictive Modelling: I. General-Purpose Closed-Form Fourth-Order Moments-Constrained MaxEnt Distribution

This work (in two parts) will present a novel predictive modeling methodology aimed at obtaining “best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties” for the first four moments (mean values, covariance, skewness and kurtosis) of the optimally predicted distribution of model results and calibrated model parameters, by combining fourth-order experimental and computational information, including fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters. Underlying the construction of this fourth-order predictive modeling methodology is the “maximum entropy principle” which is initially used to obtain a novel closed-form expression of the (moments-constrained) fourth-order Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) probability distribution constructed from the first four moments (means, covariances, skewness, kurtosis), which are assumed to be known, of an otherwise unknown distribution of a high-dimensional multivariate uncertain quantity of interest. This fourth-order MaxEnt distribution provides optimal compatibility of the available information while simultaneously ensuring minimal spurious information content, yielding an estimate of a probability density with the highest uncertainty among all densities satisfying the known moment constraints. Since this novel generic fourth-order MaxEnt distribution is of interest in its own right for applications in addition to predictive modeling, its construction is presented separately, in this first part of a two-part work. The fourth-order predictive modeling methodology that will be constructed by particularizing this generic fourth-order MaxEnt distribution will be presented in the accompanying work (Part-2).

Fourth-Order Predictive Modelling: II. 4th-BERRU-PM Methodology for Combining Measurements with Computations to Obtain Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties

This work presents a comprehensive fourth-order predictive modeling (PM) methodology that uses the MaxEnt principle to incorporate fourth-order moments (means, covariances, skewness, kurtosis) of model parameters, computed and measured model responses, as well as fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters. This new methodology is designated by the acronym 4th-BERRU-PM, which stands for “fourth-order best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties.” The results predicted by the 4th-BERRU-PM incorporates, as particular cases, the results previously predicted by the second-order predictive modeling methodology 2nd-BERRU-PM, and vastly generalizes the results produced by extant data assimilation and data adjustment procedures.

Adiabatic Shear Localization for Steels Based on Johnson-Cook Model and Second-and Fourth-Order Gradient Plasticity Models

To consider the effects of the interactions and interplay among microstructures, gradient-dependent models of second- and fourth-order are included in the widely used phenomenological Johnson-Cook model where the effects of strain-hardening, strain rate sensitivity, and thermal-softening are successfully described. The various parameters for 1006 steel, 4340 steel and S-7 tool steel are assigned. The distributions and evolutions of the local plastic shear strain and deformation in adiabatic shear band （ASB） are predicted. The calculated results of the second- and fourth- order gradient plasticity models are compared. S-7 tool steel possesses the steepest profile of local plastic shear strain in ASB, whereas 1006 steel has the least profile. The peak local plastic shear strain in ASB for S-7 tool steel is slightly higher than that for 4340 steel and is higher than that for 1006 steel. The extent of the nonlinear distribution of the local plastic shear deformation in ASB is more apparent for the S-7 tool steel, whereas it is the least apparent for 1006 steel. In fourth-order gradient plasticity model, the profile of the local plastic shear strain in the middle of ASB has a pronounced plateau whose width decreases with increasing average plastic shear strain, leading to a shrink of the portion of linear distribution of the profile of the local plastic shear deformation. When compared with the sec- ond-order gradient plasticity model, the fourth-order gradient plasticity model shows a lower peak local plastic shear strain in ASB and a higher magnitude of plastic shear deformation at the top or base of ASB, which is due to wider ASB. The present numerical results of the second- and fourth-order gradient plasticity models are consistent with the previous numerical and experimental results at least qualitatively.

Establishment of Dynamic Model for Axle Box Bearing of High-Speed Trains Under Variable Speed Conditions

In this study,a dynamic model for the bearing rotor system of a high-speed train under variable speed conditions is established.In contrast to previous studies,the contact stress is simplifed in the proposed model and the compensation balance excitation caused by the rotor mass eccentricity considered.The angle iteration method is used to overcome the challenge posed by the inability to determine the roller space position during bearing rotation.The simulation results show that the model accurately describes the dynamics of bearings under varying speed profles that contain acceleration,deceleration,and speed oscillation stages.The order ratio spectrum of the bearing vibration signal indicates that both the single and multiple frequencies in the simulation results are consistent with the theoretical results.Experiments on bearings with outer and inner ring faults under various operating conditions are performed to verify the developed model.

高职院校订单班人才培养研究与实践——以建筑智能化工程技术专业为例

校企合作、产教融合是高等职业教育发展的趋势及重要组成部分,该文主要研究高职院校订单班培养模式,并以建筑智能化工程技术专业日立电梯订单班为例,详细叙述开展订单班的过程,并对订单班实施经验进行研究与分析;校企合作双方“互利共嬴”是校企合作的宗旨,双方的利益与责任必须高度统一;订单班人才培养模式实现人才的精准培养,降低企业的经营成本,缓解学生的就业压力,加大校企合作的力度,促进教育链、人才链、产业链、创新链的有机结合,应该得到肯定、推广及发展。

基于博弈论组合赋权-云模型的消防员训练损伤风险评估

为降低消防员训练损伤发生率,从个人因素、环境因素和组织管理因素3个方面,提出包含19个指标的消防员训练损伤风险评估指标体系;采用Bonferroni有序加权平均算子(BON-OWA算子)修正层次分析法(AHP)的误差,获得各指标的主观权重;引用基于指标相关性的权重确定法(CRITIC)确定各指标的客观权重;基于博弈论组合赋权法确定各指标的组合权重;引入云模型理论,建立消防员训练损伤风险评估模型,并以河南省某消防救援大队消防员的训练为例,验证该模型的科学性。结果表明:训练装备的战技性能状况指标对消防员的训练损伤风险等级影响最大;该风险评估模型通过数据处理,可以确定消防员训练损伤风险等级;案例中,消防员在5种不同情景下的训练损伤风险等级均为一般风险,这与模糊综合评价法所得结果一致。

基于贝叶斯原理的多维Spike Train分类预测模型

神经元集群编码和spike train分析是神经信息处理的关键问题。该文介绍了一种利用高阶多维泊松模型对spike train进行分类预测的方法,并从spike的强度分布、匹配准确性和集成策略上进行了数学论证。最后利用该方法在大鼠U迷宫实验中选取20组作为训练集进行分类测试,实验结果表明,利用该方法得到的分类准确率在97%左右。

“一带一路”背景下高职院校双语教学改革与实践——以“电气化铁路基础”课程为例

在高质量共建“一带一路”框架下,中国铁路的国际影响力不断扩大,合作吸引力不断增强,对于铁路相关专业双语技术技能人才的需求也不断增大。文章对铁道供电技术专业的专业基础课程“电气化铁路基础”进行双语教学改革与实践研究,针对师资团队、课程资源、教学模式、考核评价等方面存在的问题提出改革和实践方案,分析双语教学改革后的成效,学生成绩优秀率明显增加,专业能力和英语水平得到提升,提高了铁道供电技术专业双语人才的培养质量。

跨企业订单班人才培养的探索

跨企业订单班由不同的企业和学校共同组建,旨在为成员企业培养符合要求的定向人才。相对于传统的订单班而言,跨企业订单班具有育人成本低、育人质量高和符合产业需求等优点。从组建、组织管理、人才培养方案制定与教学实施和订单班的考核与评价等方面介绍了跨企业订单班的实施路径。

混合型订单式人才培养模式下的利益博弈失序及其深层动因——基于N技工院校的多案例研究

在高质量发展背景下,校企协同育人的难点之一是订单式人才培养中多元利益诉求的有效协调。基于多案例研究法对N技工院校中6个校企合作育人专业(共18个订单班)的实证分析显示,订单式人才培养呈现混合化发展趋势,并呈现出“五阶段四主体”的模式特征。该培养模式下的核心利益主体包括技工院校、订单班教师、用人单位和订单班学生,其利益冲突与博弈的交叠影响催生出校—企、校—生、校—师、企—生、企—师、师—生等博弈失序问题,影响人才培养质量及效益。引发博弈失序的深层动因包括制度层面的宏观和微观制度功能缺失与执行失效,法律层面的校企合作订单式育人地位模糊,以及文化层面的就业导向观、利益本位观与个人本位观冲突。为协调多元利益诉求、推动各主体实现良性博弈,应从制度建设与文化整合两个层面入手,围绕“准备阶段—班级组建—班级授课—最终考核—实习就业”的人才培养全链条实现机制优化。

基于均方根容积卡尔曼滤波的船舶操纵运动响应模型参数辨识

为了解决扩展卡尔曼滤波(extended Kalman filter,EKF)算法在船舶操纵运动模型参数辨识中存在辨识精度低、稳定性差和泛化能力弱的问题,提出了一种基于均方根容积卡尔曼滤波(square root cubature Kalman filter,SRCKF)的辨识算法。在CKF框架下将方差矩阵的均方根代替原始方差矩阵,使用三角分解对其进行预测和更新以提高辨识的稳定性。将EKF作为对比算法,利用四阶龙格库塔法解算的数值仿真数据,对舵角符合舵机伺服机构变化的船舶二阶非线性响应模型参数进行辨识,并将得到的辨识模型开展泛化能力验证试验。结果表明:SRCKF算法具有比EKF算法更高的辨识精度、稳定性和泛化能力。

服务新疆能源化工产业发展的“3+1”订单式人才培养模式改革

构建能源强国,人才与科技是至关重要的一个环节。新疆作为中国能源资源禀赋突出的地区,将丰富的能源潜力转变成发展的强劲动能离不开懂工艺、懂设备,具有团队协作意识、创新精神和扎根边疆的高水平应用型人才。新疆理工学院在校企深度合作基础上,以能源化学工程专业和过程装备与控制工程专业为试点,开展校企协同“3+1”订单式人才培养模式的改革与实践。历经三年的实证研究与实践检验后,实现了对学生创新实践能力、工程素养以及团队协作精神的全方位培育,学生和用人单位的满意度不断提高,同时在能源化工行业就业的学生比例也显著增长。面向新疆能源化工产业发展的“3+1”订单式人才培养模式有助于推动创新性、工程性高水平应用型人才培养,从而实现产业升级与发展。

“产教融合,校企合作”人才培养模式的探索——以广汽丰田订单班培养为例

通过对教育教学改革进一步深化,与社会企业力量相结合,将行业企业需求作为基本出发点,坚持“产教融合,校企合作”的基本原则,可以对高层次应用复合型人才进行培养,优化人力资源配置,使就业压力减轻,从而使多方共赢得以实现。因此,本文从“产教融合、校企合作”的运行模式、高职院校人才市场的供需矛盾、“丰田订单班”的启示和模式推广、订单培养在企业人力资源建设中的应用以及校企合作实施订单培养的优点等多个方面进行了探讨,以期提高高职院校的人才培养水平。

A Climatic Sequence Stratigraphic Model in the Terrestrial Lacustrine Basin:A Case Study of Green River Formation,Uinta Basin,USA

In recent years, with the development of terrestrial sequence stratigraphy, more attention has been focused on the study of the terrestrial lacustrine sequence stratigraphic model globally. Different viewpoints are preferred by researchers. Under the guidance of the theory of sequence stratigraphy, the findings of this paper indicate that climate is a major factor controlling the formation of the fourth-order sequence, based upon the study of the sequence stratigraphy in the Green River Formation of the Uinta basin in the USA. It also divides the fourth-order sequence in the terrestrial lacustrine basin into two system tracts： the wet （rising） half-cycle and the dry （falling） half- cycle, establishing a new-style fourth-order sequence stratigraphic model for the terrestrial lacustrine basin, that is, the climate-genetic sequence stratigraphic model. As a result, the theory of sequence stratigraphy is greatly enriched.

Image Denoising Combining the P-M Model and the LLT Model

In this paper, we present a noise removal technique by combining the P-M model with the LLT model. The combined technique takes full use of the advantage of both filters which is able to preserve edges and simultaneously overcomes the staircase effect. We use a weighting function in our model, and compare this model with the P-M model as well as other fourth-order functional both in theory and numerical experiment.

Studying the Impact of Vaccination Strategy and Key Parameters on Infectious Disease Models

In the current work, we study two infectious disease models and we use nonlinear optimization and optimal control theory which helps to find strategies towards transmission control and to forecast the international spread of the infectious diseases. The relationship between epidemiology, mathematical modeling and computational tools lets us to build and test theories on the development and fighting with a disease. This study is motivated by the study of epidemiological models applied to infectious diseases in an optimal control perspective. We use the numerical methods to display the solutions of the optimal control problems to find the effect of vaccination on these models. Finally, global sensitivity analysis LHS Monte Carlo method using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) has been performed to investigate the key parameters in model equations. This present work will advance the understanding about the spread of infectious diseases and lead to novel conceptual understanding for spread of them.

安徽省养老服务人才发展现状、问题与对策

安徽省养老服务行业发展迅速,但是在养老服务人才的发展中还存在着一些问题,如总量缺口、年龄结构不合理、学历较低、专业化程度较低等。建议通过以下措施促进安徽省养老服务人才发展:构建分阶段递进的订单式人才培养模式,加强养老服务人才的培养;调动志愿者的力量,弥补养老服务人才供给的不足;改进薪酬,增加养老服务人才工作的积极性;实行养老服务人才分类培训,提升养老服务人才专业化水平。

含多球铰间隙并联机构动力学建模与响应分析

为了分析多个球铰间隙对并联机构动力学响应的影响,本文以3-SPS-S空间并联机构为研究对象,在Flores法向接触力模型和改进的Coulomb摩擦力模型的基础上,推导出球铰间隙处的碰撞力模型。采用Lagrange乘子法建立了含多个球铰间隙的并联机构动力学模型。利用Matlab软件,通过四阶Runge-Kutta解法求解此模型,分析球铰间隙如何影响机构的动力学响应,并应用ADAMS软件虚拟样机仿真。研究表明:球面副间隙对动平台角加速度和间隙处的碰撞力影响较大,且间隙数量越多,机构稳定性越差。本文为考虑多个球铰间隙并联机构刚体动力学模型的建立和响应分析提供理论依据,对准确的预测和控制含球铰间隙机构的动力学特性具有重要意义。

校企联合下中亚国际贸易人才弹性订单式培养模式创新研究

分析了当前高校通过校企联合采用订单方式培养专业人才的主要模式和存在的问题,从订单企业选择、校企双向选择的订单式培养模式和具有弹性的订单式培养方案三个方面提出了针对现有订单式培养模式的创新路径,以期提高中亚国际贸易人才订单式培养效果。

高职商务英语专业“订单式”人才培养模式的创新与实践——以广东农工商职业技术学院商务英语专业为例

依托与行业协会、企业合作的订单培养项目,针对传统订单培养存在的校企合作层次浅,学生离职率高、就业口径狭窄、评价体系不健全与欠缺持续改进机制等问题,通过“四引”合作途径,建立“五共”校企协同育人机制,构建“一体三阶多元化”职业素养培养课程体系,探索订单培养“一对多”模式和完善多元多维质量评价体系,深化了校企合作,培养了学生职业能力,降低了离职率,拓宽了学生的就业口径,形成了订单培养的可持续改进机制,促进了产教融合,实现精准对接和精准育人。