Reevaluating health metrics:Unraveling the limitations of disabilityadjusted life years as an indicator in disease burden assessment

In 1993,the World Bank released a global report on the efficacy of health promotion,introducing the disability-adjusted life years(DALY)as a novel indicator.The DALY,a composite metric incorporating temporal and qualitative data,is grounded in preferences regarding disability status.This review delineates the algorithm used to calculate the value of the proposed DALY synthetic indicator and elucidates key methodological challenges associated with its application.In contrast to the quality-adjusted life years approach,derived from multi-attribute utility theory,the DALY stands as an independent synthetic indicator that adopts the assumptions of the Time Trade Off utility technique to define Disability Weights.Claiming to rely on no mathematical or economic theory,DALY users appear to have exempted themselves from verifying whether this indicator meets the classical properties required of all indicators,notably content validity,reliability,specificity,and sensitivity.The DALY concept emerged primarily to facilitate comparisons of the health impacts of various diseases globally within the framework of the Global Burden of Disease initiative,leading to numerous publications in international literature.Despite widespread adoption,the DALY synthetic indicator has prompted significant methodological concerns since its inception,manifesting in inconsistent and non-reproducible results.Given the substantial diffusion of the DALY indicator and its critical role in health impact assessments,a reassessment is warranted.This reconsideration is imperative for enhancing the robustness and reliability of public health decisionmaking processes.

适于GlobalAllomeTree国际数据平台的标准化中国主要树种树高-胸径方程研建

GlobalAllomeTree作为共享异速方程的国际网络平台,逐渐受到全球高度关注。当前,为促进该项国际合作,针对当前该平台缺乏中国主要树种生长异速方程的现状,系统性更新标准化中国主要树种树高-胸径方程。由于树冠和下部灌木及草丛遮挡,树高相对于胸径测量具有一定的难度,因此需要使用数学工具进行计算。选取了36个树种为材料构建树高-胸径关系方程,以全国主要树种的二元材积模型、各地区一元材积表为基础材料,以取样径阶为1 cm间隔所生成1692组树高-胸径数据作为建立方程样本,1238组外业调查数据为验证样本。建模结果表明:36个主要树种的1692组树高-胸径数据建立的全国通用性树高-胸径方程拟合相关系数(R2)为0.801,方程拟合结果较好,说明可以通过测定胸径,带入树高(H,m)-胸径(D,cm)方程(H=aDb)预估树高;对36个主要树种的树高-胸径方程进行拟合,决定系数R2值均大于0.916,平均误差(ME)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)相对较小,方程整体精度较高,可广泛推广;将外业采集的1238组树高-胸径数据,根据36个主要树种树高-胸径方程拟合公式及参数估计值a、b进行方程精度验证,方程预测的平均相对误差为16.86%,在误差允许范围内,并且模型形式规范,可为GlobalAllomeTree平台用户提供科学参考。

Influence of mulching and tree shelters on 4-year survival and growth of zeen oak (Quercus canariensis) seedlings

We assessed the effect of mulching and tree shelters on the establishment and early growth of zeen oak(Quercus canariensis Willd.) during the first 4 years after planting in Northwestern Tunisia. Five mulch types(Italian Stone Pine(Pinus pinea L.), Lentisk(Pistacia lentiscus L.),and a combination of Italian Stone Pine and Lentisk(organic mulches), gravel(inorganic mulch) and control), and three tree shelter types(non-vented and vented tree shelters, and control) were tested. An increase in the number of internodes occurred under the gravel mulch, while a reduction in survival was found for the lentisk mulch. Tree shelters had no effect on survival, but increased mean height growth and reduced mean diameter growth during the 4 years(excepting a non-significant effect for vented tree shelter at year four). Comparison of the annual shoots and growth units(GU) between sheltered and unsheltered plants according to year of formation revealed two growth phases. In first phase, shoots were totally or partially inside the shelters; mean length of annual shoots and GU were greater for sheltered plants. The second phase was characterized by shoots emerging from shelters; mean length of annual shoots and GU were similar for all plants, with or without tree shelters. Results suggest that the use of tree shelters, particularly vented shelters, could contribute to the improvement of the artificial regeneration of zeen oak.The use of mulching alone or in combination with tree shelters did not improve zeen oak performance in the field.

Using a Tree Ring δ^(13)C Annual Series to Reconstruct Atmospheric CO_2 Concentration over the Past 300 Years

The annual series of δ13C were measured in tree rings of three Cryptomeria fortunei disks （OF-1, OF-2, and OF- 3） collected from West Tianmu Mountain, Zhejiang Province, China, according to cross-dating tree ring ages. There was no obvious decreasing trend of the δ13C annual time series of CF-2 before 1835. However, from 1835 to 1982 the three tree ring δ13C annual series exhibited similar decreasing trends that were significantly （P ≤ 0.001） correlated. The distribution characteristics of a scatter diagram between estimated δ13C series of CF-2 from modeling and the atmospheric CO2 concentration extracted from the Law Dome ice core from 1840 to 1978 were analyzed and a curvilinear regression equation for reconstructing atmospheric CO2 concentration was established with R2 = 0.98. Also, a test of independent samples indicated that between 1685 and 1839 the reconstructed atmospheric CO2 concentration .using the δ13C series of CF-2 had a close relationship with the Law Dome and Siple ice cores, with a standard deviation of 1.98. The general increasing trend of the reconstructed atmospheric CO2 concentration closely reflected the 10ng-term variation of atmospheric CO2 concentration recorded both before and after the Industrial Revolution. Between 1685 and 1840 the evaluated atmospheric CO2 concentration was stable, but after 1840 it exhibited a rapid increase. Given a longer δ13C annual time series of tree rings, it was feasible to rebuild a representative time series to describe the atmospheric CO2 concentration for an earlier period and for years that were not in the ice core record.

基于自动终止准则改进的kd-tree粒子近邻搜索研究

对于大规模运动模拟问题而言,近邻点的搜索效率将对整体的运算效率产生显著影响。本文基于关联性分析建立kd-tree的最大深度dmax与粒子总数N的自适应关系式,提出了kd-tree自动终止准则,即ATC-kd-tree,同时还考虑了叶子节点大小阈值n_(0)对近邻搜索效率的影响。试验表明,ATC-kd-tree具有更高的近邻搜索效率,相较于不使用自动终止准则的kd-tree搜索效率最高提升46%,且适用性更强,可求解不同N值的近邻搜索问题,解决了粒子总数N发生改变时需要再次率定最大深度dmax的问题。同时,本文还提出了网格搜索法组合坐标下降法的两步参数优化算法GSCD法。通过2维阿米巴虫形状的参数优化试验发现,GSCD法可更为快速地率定ATC-kd-tree的可变参数,其优化效率比网格搜索法最高提升了205%,相较于改进网格搜索法最高提升了90%。研究结果表明,ATC-kd-tree和GSCD法不仅提高了近邻搜索的效率,也为复杂运动中近邻粒子搜索问题提供了一种更为高效的解决方案,能够显著降低计算资源的消耗,进一步提升模拟的精度和效率。

基于FP-tree的新能源汽车产业国际竞争力影响因素关联挖掘算法

为充分挖掘新能源汽车产业国际竞争力影响因素、探究价值增长点,提出了基于FP-tree的影响因素关联挖掘算法。通过构建国际竞争力各指标影响因素的关联规则,分析任意事务数据集中的关联数据,利用最小支持度参数minsup按照从上到下的方式搜索,确定最长的频繁项目集,采用FP-tree关联频繁项目集,设定分支关联性挖掘标准,实现了新能源汽车产业国际竞争力影响因素的挖掘。测试结果表明,设计算法的最小支持度和数据关联挖掘时间较短,置信度分析具有较高的稳定性。

比较YEARS评分与简化Wells联合年龄校正D-二聚体评分用于疑似肺栓塞患者的诊断价值

目的通过前瞻性研究比较YEARS评分与简化Wells联合年龄校正D-二聚体评分(sWells-Age)用于疑似肺栓塞患者的诊断价值。方法纳入2021年3月3日到2022年4月30日于宜宾市第二人民医院就诊且符合纳排标准的可疑肺栓塞病人522名,采用前瞻性观察研究,由临床医师对照YEARS评分收集患者基线信息,计算患者YEARS评分及sWells-Age评分判断其目前肺栓塞临床可能性。所有排除肺栓塞且未进行抗凝治疗的患者进行3个月随访。以CTPA检查结果作为诊断金标准,分别计算YEARS评分及sWells-Age评分敏感度、特异度、κ值等指标,绘制两者ROC曲线并计算AUC值。结果sWells-Age评分及YEARS评分灵敏度分别为85.71%、93.41%(P<0.001),特异度分别为69.23%、56.92%(P<0.001),AUC值分别为0.775(95%CI 0.688~0.816)、0.752(95%CI 0.711~0.838),与CTPA的κ值分别为0.526、0.465,均>0.410,结果一致性均属于中等,两者灵敏度比较(χ^(2)=5.143,P<0.025),差异具有统计学意义,两者特异度比较(χ^(2)=12.500,P<0.001),差异具有显著统计学意义。结论sWells-Age评分优于YEARS评分,但YEARS评分项目少,灵敏度及安全性高,可应用于早期肺栓塞患者的筛查。

Variations in seed size and seed mass related to tree growth over 5 years for 23 provenances of Quercus acutissima from across China

The origin of a seed strongly impacts its traits, and both origin and seed traits influence seed germination and seedling development. However, in many instances, this effect on the seedling does not persist into adulthood, and little is known about how seed traits and original environment affect seedling/tree growth over time. In this study, seed size, seed mass, seedling/tree growth and origins were collected and determined for 23 provenances of Quercus acutissima from across China. Origin variables correlated well with seed size and seed mass. In stepwise multiple regressions, a longitudinal aridity index explained 49.2-68.7% of the total variation in seed size and mass, while only seed width was correlated with seedling/tree height (H) and diameter at the ground (D) from seed traits and origins. The total variance in H and D explained by the models decreased over time, for example, the R 2 value of the models for H declined from 0.477 in the first year to 0.224 in the fourth year; no models was significant in the fifth year. These results indicate that seed size, regulated by the longitudinal aridity index strongly impacted seedling and tree growth, but the strength of the influence decreased over time, and disappeared after 4 years.

Stress-assisted corrosion mechanism of 3Ni steel by using gradient boosting decision tree machining learning method

Traditional 3Ni weathering steel cannot completely meet the requirements for offshore engineering development,resulting in the design of novel 3Ni steel with the addition of microalloy elements such as Mn or Nb for strength enhancement becoming a trend.The stress-assisted corrosion behavior of a novel designed high-strength 3Ni steel was investigated in the current study using the corrosion big data method.The information on the corrosion process was recorded using the galvanic corrosion current monitoring method.The gradi-ent boosting decision tree(GBDT)machine learning method was used to mine the corrosion mechanism,and the importance of the struc-ture factor was investigated.Field exposure tests were conducted to verify the calculated results using the GBDT method.Results indic-ated that the GBDT method can be effectively used to study the influence of structural factors on the corrosion process of 3Ni steel.Dif-ferent mechanisms for the addition of Mn and Cu to the stress-assisted corrosion of 3Ni steel suggested that Mn and Cu have no obvious effect on the corrosion rate of non-stressed 3Ni steel during the early stage of corrosion.When the corrosion reached a stable state,the in-crease in Mn element content increased the corrosion rate of 3Ni steel,while Cu reduced this rate.In the presence of stress,the increase in Mn element content and Cu addition can inhibit the corrosion process.The corrosion law of outdoor-exposed 3Ni steel is consistent with the law based on corrosion big data technology,verifying the reliability of the big data evaluation method and data prediction model selection.

Rising utilization of stable isotopes in tree rings for climate change and forest ecology

Analyses of stable isotopes(C,O,H)in tree rings are increasingly important cross-disciplinary programs.The rapid development in this field documented in an increasing number of publications requires a comprehensive review.This study includes a bibliometric analysis-based review to better understand research trends in tree ring stable isotope research.Overall,1475 publications were selected from the Web of Science Core Collection for 1974-2023.The findings are that:(1)numbers of annual publications and citations increased since 1974.From 1974 to 1980,there were around two relevant publications per year.However,from 2020 to 2022,this rose sharply to 109 publications per year.Likewise,average article citations were less than four per year before 1990,but were around four per article per year after 2000;(2)the major subjects using tree ring stable isotopes include forestry,geosciences,and environmental sciences,contributing to 42.5%of the total during 1974-2023;(3)the top three most productive institutions are the Chinese Academy of Sciences(423),the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest,Snow and Landscape Research(227),and the University of Arizona(204).These achievements result from strong collaborations;(4)review papers,for example,(Dawson et al.,Annu Rev Ecol Syst 33:507-559,2002)and(McCarroll and Loader,Quat Sci Rev 23:771-801,2004),are among the most cited,with more than 1000 citations;(5)tree ring stable isotope studies mainly focus on climatology and ecology,with atmospheric CO_(2) one of the most popular topics.Since 2010,precipitation and drought have received increasing attention.Based on this analysis,the research stages,key findings,debated issues,limitations and direc-tions for future research are summarized.This study serves as an important attempt to understand the progress on the use of stable isotopes in tree rings,providing scientific guid-ance for young researchers in this field.

Comprehensive analyses of the proteome and ubiquitome revealed mechanism of high temperature accelerating petal abscission in tree peony

Tree peony(Paeonia suffruticosa Andrews)is a well-known ornamental plant with high economic value,but the short fluorescence is a key obstacle to its ornamental value and industry development.High temperature accelerates flower senescence and abscission,but the associated mechanisms are poorly understood.In this study,the tandem mass tag(TMT)proteome and label-free quantitative ubiquitome from tree peony cut flowers treated with 20℃for 0 h(RT0),20℃or 28℃for 60 h(RT60 or HT60)were examined based on morphological observation,respectively.Totally,6970 proteins and 1545 lysine ubiquitinated(Kub)sites in 844 proteins were identified.Hydrophilic residues(such as glutamate and aspartate)neighboring the Kub sites were in preference,and 36.01%of the Kub sites were located on the protein surface.The differentially expressed proteins(DEPs)and Kub-DEPs in HT60 vs RT60 were mainly enriched in ribosomal protein,protein biosynthesis,secondary metabolites biosynthesis,flavonoid metabolism,carbohydrate catabolism,and auxin biosynthesis and signaling revealed by GO and KEGG analysis,accompanying the increase of endogenous abscisic acid(ABA)accumulation and decrease of endogenous indoleacetic acid(IAA)level.Additionally,the expression patterns of six enzymes(SAMS,ACO,YUC,CHS,ANS and PFK)putatively with Kub modifications were analyzed by proteome and real-time quantitative RT-PCR.The cell-free degradation assays showed PsSAMS and PsACO proteins could be degraded via the 26 S proteasome system in tree peony flowers.Finally,a working model was proposed for the acceleration of flower senescence and abscission by high temperature.In summary,all results contributed to understanding the mechanism of flower senescence induced by high temperature and prolonging fluorescence in tree peony.

No effect of invasive tree species on aboveground biomass increments of oaks and pines in temperate forests

Prunus serotina and Robinia pseudoacacia are the most widespread invasive trees in Central Europe.In addition,according to climate models,decreased growth of many economically and ecologically important native trees will likely be observed in the future.We aimed to assess the impact of these two neophytes,which differ in the biomass range and nitrogen-fixing abilities observed in Central European conditions,on the relative aboveground biomass increments of native oaks Qucrcus robur and Q.petraea and Scots pine Pinus sylvestris.We aimed to increase our understanding of the relationship between facilitation and competition between woody alien species and overstory native trees.We established 72 circular plots(0.05 ha)in two different forest habitat types and stands varying in age in western Poland.We chose plots with different abundances of the studied neophytes to determine how effects scaled along the quantitative invasion gradient.Furthermore,we collected growth cores of the studied native species,and we calculated aboveground biomass increments at the tree and stand levels.Then,we used generalized linear mixed-effects models to assess the impact of invasive species abundances on relative aboveground biomass increments of native tree species.We did not find a biologically or statistically significant impact of invasive R.pseudoacacia or P.serotina on the relative aboveground,biomass increments of native oaks and pines along the quantitative gradient of invader biomass or on the proportion of total stand biomass accounted for by invaders.The neophytes did not act as native tree growth stimulators but also did not compete with them for resources,which would escalate the negative impact of climate change on pines and oaks.The neophytes should not significantly modify the carbon sequestration capacity of the native species.Our work combines elements of the per capita effect of invasion with research on mixed forest management.

Remaining Useful Life Prediction Method for Multi-Component System Considering Maintenance:Subsea Christmas Tree System as A Case Study

Maintenance is an important technical measure to maintain and restore the performance status of equipment and ensure the safety of the production process in industrial production,and is an indispensable part of prediction and health management.However,most of the existing remaining useful life(RUL)prediction methods assume that there is no maintenance or only perfect maintenance during the whole life cycle;thus,the predicted RUL value of the system is obviously lower than its actual operating value.The complex environment of the system further increases the difficulty of maintenance,and its maintenance nodes and maintenance degree are limited by the construction period and working conditions,which increases the difficulty of RUL prediction.An RUL prediction method for a multi-omponent system based on the Wiener process considering maintenance is proposed.The performance degradation model of components is established by a dynamic Bayesian network as the initial model,which solves the uncertainty of insufficient data problems.Based on the experience of experts,the degree of degradation is divided according to Poisson process simulation random failure,and different maintenance strategies are used to estimate a variety of condition maintenance factors.An example of a subsea tree system is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Risk Assessment of Deep-Water Horizontal X-Tree Installation

Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a modular risk evaluation model based on a fuzzy fault tree.First,through the analysis of the main process oftree down and combining the Offshore&Onshore Reliability Data(OREDA)failure statistics and the operation procedure and the data provided by the job,the fault tree model of risk analysis of the tree down installation was established.Then,by introducing the natural language of expert comprehensive evaluation and combining fuzzy principles,quantitative analysis was carried out,and the fuzzy number was used to calculate the failure probability of a basic event and the occurrence probability of a top event.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of basic events,the basic events of top events significantly affected were determined,and risk control and prevention measures for the corresponding high-risk factors were proposed for subsea horizontal X-tree down installation.

Identification of novel mammalian viruses in tree shrews(Tupaia belangeri chinensis)

The Chinese tree shrew(Tupaia belangeri chinensis),a member of the mammalian order Scandentia,exhibits considerable similarities with primates,including humans,in aspects of its nervous,immune,and metabolic systems.These similarities have established the tree shrew as a promising experimental model for biomedical research on cancer,infectious diseases,metabolic disorders,and mental health conditions.Herein,we used metatranscriptomic sequencing to analyze plasma,as well as oral and anal swab samples,from 105 healthy asymptomatic tree shrews to identify the presence of potential zoonotic viruses.In total,eight mammalian viruses with complete genomes were identified,belonging to six viral families,including Flaviviridae,Hepeviridae,Parvovirinae,Picornaviridae,Sedoreoviridae,and Spinareoviridae.Notably,the presence of rotavirus was recorded in tree shrews for the first time.Three viruses-hepacivirus 1,parvovirus,and picornavirus-exhibited low genetic similarity(<70%)with previously reported viruses at the whole-genome scale,indicating novelty.Conversely,three other viruses-hepacivirus 2,hepatovirus A and hepevirus-exhibited high similarity(>94%)to known viral strains.Phylogenetic analyses also revealed that the rotavirus and mammalian orthoreovirus identified in this study may be novel reassortants.These findings provide insights into the diverse viral spectrum present in captive Chinese tree shrews,highlighting the necessity for further research into their potential for crossspecies transmission.

基于TREE-LSTM算法的船舶汽轮机组变负荷故障诊断

针对船舶汽轮机组变负荷过程故障诊断中的耦合参数时序特征难以捕捉以及正常参数变动的干扰等问题,引入TREE-LSTM神经网络模型以实现复杂非线性系统动态数据分类。首先建立某船舶汽轮机组仿真模型,分析并进行故障仿真;随后进行数据预处理与特征工程;最后训练TREE-LSTM模型进行故障诊断,并与SVM、LSTM等模型进行比较。TREE-LSTM模型对于船舶汽轮机组变负荷过程的故障诊断正确率为98.7%,正确率最高。由于引入时间序列与复杂神经网络拓扑结构,TREE-LSTM在处理非线性系统动态数据分类问题时效果更好。

Bowel preparation protocol for hospitalized patients ages 50 years or older:A randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND The incidence and mortality rate of colorectal cancer progressively increase with age and become particularly prominent after the age of 50 years.Therefore,the population that is≥50 years in age requires long-term and regular colonoscopies.Uncomfortable bowel preparation is the main reason preventing patients from undergoing regular colonoscopies.The standard bowel preparation regimen of 4-L polyethylene glycol(PEG)is effective but poorly tolerated.AIM To investigate an effective and comfortable bowel preparation regimen for hospitalized patients≥50 years in age.METHODS Patients were randomly assigned to group 1(2-L PEG+30-mL lactulose+a lowresidue diet)or group 2(4-L PEG).Adequate bowel preparation was defined as a Boston bowel preparation scale(BBPS)score of≥6,with a score of≥2 for each segment.Non-inferiority was prespecified with a margin of 10%.Additionally,the degree of comfort was assessed based on the comfort questionnaire.RESULTS The proportion of patients with a BBPS score of≥6 in group 1 was not significantly different from that in group 2,as demonstrated by intention-to-treat(91.2%vs 91.0%,P=0.953)and per-protocol(91.8%vs 91.0%,P=0.802)analyses.Furthermore,in patients≥75 years in age,the proportion of BBPS scores of≥6 in group 1 was not significantly different from that in group 2(90.9%vs 97.0%,P=0.716).Group 1 had higher comfort scores(8.85±1.162 vs 7.59±1.735,P<0.001),longer sleep duration(6.86±1.204 h vs 5.80±1.730 h,P<0.001),and fewer awakenings(1.42±1.183 vs 2.04±1.835,P=0.026)than group 2.CONCLUSION For hospitalized patients≥50 years in age,the bowel preparation regimen comprising 2-L PEG+30-mL lactulose+a low-residue diet produced a cleanse that was as effective as the 4-L PEG regimen and even provided better comfort.

基于Extra Tree Classifier的水质安全建模预测

随着工业化和城市化的快速发展,水质安全问题日益受到关注。本研究利用一个包含7999条数据记录的水质分析数据集,涵盖多种化学物质浓度测量值与安全阈值,以及“是否安全”分类变量,运用Extr aTree Classifier模型进行水质安全建模预测及数据分析。本研究目的在于提供一个可靠的模型,以帮助决策者和相关部门更好地监测和维护水质安全,从而保障公众健康和环境可持续发展。

Short lifespan and ‘prime period’ of carbon sequestration call for multi-ages in dryland tree plantations

Enhancing forest cover is important for effective climate change mitigation.Studies suggest that drylands are promising areas for expanding forests,but conflicts arise with increased forest area and water consumption.Recent tree mortality in drylands raises concerns about carbon sequestration potential in tree plantations.Using Chinese dryland tree plantations as an example,we compared their growth with natural forests.Our results suggested plantation trees grew 1.6–2.1 times faster in juvenile phases,significantly shortening time to maturity(13.5 vs.30 years)compared to natural forests,potentially stemming from simple plantation age structures.Different from natural forests,74%of trees in plantations faced growth decline,indicating a short“prime period”for carbon sequestration and even a short lifespan.Additionally,a negative relationship between evapotranspiration and tree growth was observed in tree plantations since maturity,leading to high sensitivities of trees to vapor pressure deficit and soil water.However,this was not observed in natural forests.To address this,we suggest afforestation in drylands should consider complex age structures,ensuring a longer prime period for carbon sequestration and life expectancy in tree plantations.