Does innovative city pilot policy promote urban green growth in China?An analysis of green total factor productivity,2005-2020

The innovative city pilot policy(ICPP)is an essential manifestation of China’s construction of an innovative and green-driven development country.We incorporated urban green total factor productivity(GTFP)growth into the evaluation of ICPP.Based on the panel data of 223 cities in China from 2005 to 2020,we used the difference-in-differences model to empirically assess the influence and mechanism of the ICPP on urban GTFP growth.The main results show that(i)The ICPP has maintained an effectively fluctuating promotion on urban GTFP growth,mainly manifested in the urban green technological progress improvement.(ii)The ICPP has urban heterogeneity in promoting GTFP growth in pilot cities,mainly affecting key cities such as provincial capitals.(iii)The interaction between the agglomeration of producer services and the ICPP inhibits GTFP growth in pilot cities.

Effects of the Trade and Financial Governmental Policies on the Total Investment in Syria （1980-2010）

This paper attempts to investigate the effects of several financial and trade policies on the total investment in Syria, over the period 1980-2010 （before the current war）. The study employs Johansen co-integration test to check the presence of long-term relationship between explanatory and dependent variables. In addition, Vector Error Correction Model （VECM） further studies the causal relationship from dependent variable to independent variables. The Johansen co-integration test indicates a significant long-term relationship among the variables. Moreover, the Vector Error Correction Model also suggests the long run causality from the imports, exports, capital public expenditures, and subsidies to total investment. The study’s result indicates that the imports and the capital public expenditures played a significant role in supporting the total investment in the country before the war, while there was a negative role of exports in the total investment, and there was no impact of subsidies on the total investment. Before the war, foreign investment in Syria was over dominated by European Union. The paper proposes to diversify the target of investment flow to Syria, especially from China and the other BRICS countries that can take advantages from Syria and can support Syria economy after the war by the strategy of “One Road One Belt”. Theseresults may assist Syrian policy makers, after the war, to develop an economic plan that takes into account the effects of these policies to improve the total investment which will help Syria in rebuilding the economy.

Tackling China’s Pension Fund Payment Crisis:Will the “Two-Child Policy” Be the Answer?——An example with the basic pension insurance program for urban employees

Based on the reality that 29 Chinese provinces have already implemented the policy allowing a couple to raise a second child if either parent is an only child, this paper provides an empirical study on the effect of this policy on the financial status of the social pooling fund of basic pension insurance for urban employees. Our study suggests the followings. First, under the previous unchanged family planning policy, current deficits and cumulative deficits will occur in the social pooling fund in the year 2047 and 2063 respectively. Second, if lO% to 50% of qualified couples choose to raise a second child, the financial status of the social pooling fund will improve; relative to the previous unchanged family planning policy, the contribution ratio can decrease from 20% to the range between 18.06% and 19.57% without causing any changes to the original financial status of income and expenditure. Third, if the percentage of couples choosing to raise a second child rises to 60% to 100%, the contribution ratio can even decrease to the range between 16.55% and 17. 7% without causing any changes to the financial status as under the previous unchanged family planning policy. The above conclusions have all passed the sensitivity test. Therefore, the ＂two-child policy＂ for qualified couples is favorable to alleviating the payment pressures of pension insurance but the policy effectiveness is subject to fertility desire and the intensity of government implementation.

Seizures Related to Two-child Policy:A Case Report

From 1979 to 2012,the Chinese government implemented the one-child policy to control population growth.In 2013,families in which either parent was the only one child were allowed to apply for a second child.In 2016,China’s universal two-child policy was finally imposed.As such,many children who had always been the center of their family’s universe due to the unique family structure stemming from the one-child policy era became elder siblings during their adolescence.We report a case of a 9-year-old girl who developed seizures after the birth of her younger sister.The combination of clinical observation,laboratory examinations,and video-electroencephalography was not enough to make a confident diagnosis of epilepsy initially.Given her patient history and follow-up investigation,we speculated the two-child policy was related to her seizures.To our knowledge,this is the first report of seizures strongly related to the two-child policy.

The Influence of the Two-child Policy on Urbanization in China

Family planning has been China's basic national policy since 1980, but it changed from a onechild policy to a two-child policy at the end of 2015 as which will further stimulate the rapid growth of China's population and have a profound impact on the population structure and land use in China. Based on the forecast of total population change in national and provincial dimensions after the two -child policy, the paper forecasted the spatial pattern of China's population and provincial differentiation over the next 15 years, and discussed the far-reaching impact on the future urban and rural land use and planning. Conclusions as follows: the two-child policy will achieve rapid population growth in the next 5 years, then there will be a stable growth phase;the peak of China's population increase will occur in 2030 with a total population of about 1.55 billion people, which will continue the regional differentiation of urbanization, and urbanization level in southeastern region will remain generally higher than that of the northwest. In addition, population growth brings new demands in urban and rural construction land, therefore, more intensive use of land will be the inevitable choice for the future development for China.

Study on the Influence of the the Universal Two-childPolicy on China＇s Pension Payment

In the face of the continuous decline in the birth rate and the aging of the peak of aging, following the implementation of the ＂Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Comprehensively Deepening the Reform of Some Major Issues＂ adopted by the Filth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee on November 15, 2013, the party is the only child. Female couples can have a policy of giving birth to two children. On October 29, 2015, China introduced the ＂two-child policy＂, completely replacing the ＂one-child policy＂ that has been implemented in China for more than 30 years. The ＂two-child comprehensive＂ can alleviate the unfavorable population trend that plagues China＇s social security system to a certain extent. Optimize the age structure of the population and increase the supply of labor. However, for a long time, the financial distress and management dilemma faced by China＇s pension payment still exist, and the loose population birth policy will have a great impact on reducing pension payment, and will gradually appear in the policy implementation. This article combines the ＂comprehensive two-child＂ policy, focusing on the role of the new population birth policy to alleviate the pressure on China＇s pension.

A Study of the Universal Two-child Policy’s Impact on China’s Future Population

The most essential step in adjusting and improving the childbearing policy, the universal two-child policy will produce far-reaching impacts on the future development of China’s population. With its implementation, the country’s total population will peak later, the underage population and its proportion will increase substantially, the working-age population will experience a slower decline, and the aging of China’s population will be eased. However, the drop in the proportion of working-age people over the last 15 years has expedited the reduction of the demographic dividend, the elderly population will remain unaffected over the next 60 years, the aging of the population will continue to deepen, and at the same time, the increased child dependency burden will expand the overall dependency ratio.

The employment impact analysis of Full-scale two-child policy for career women

With the development of China＇s childbearing policy changes in recent years, it causes effects to women＇s social life. Based on the questionnaire survey of influencing factors about professional women＇s intention of second child birth and with two child policy was carry out as the background, summed up the three major factors influencing the working women fertility fertility intention, emotional factors and external security. At the same time using the structural equation model, studies the impact of the influence factors to the career development of working women. The conclusion is that childbearing willing has little effects on the professional women in Shanghai, emotional factors and external security has certain impact on women＇ s employment.

Effects of the New Two-child Policy On Family Old-age Security

This paper analyzes the current situation of the aging population and low fertility rate.lt is found that the aging process is accelerated, the population growth potential is decreased, and the elderly dependency ratio is higher.Secondly, this paper mainly analyzes the impact of the new two-child policy on family pension security from three aspects： population policy, family support and social security.There are two aspects of the effects, the positive effects are：improve fertility, reduce elderly dependency ratio, relieve population aging,enhance the family development： the negative effects are： tremendous pressure on public resources, further inequality in birth right, heavy economic pressure on the family.At last. this paper puts forward the constructive countermeasures against the problems of the policy and the was out of the family old-age security.

The role of R&D and economic policy uncertainty in Sri Lanka’s economic growth

In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)in the country.Using historical time series data(1980–2018),we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka.This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion.We find that,through R&D,EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth,although it is short-lived.Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.

The influence of Chinese population policy change on resources and the environment

Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China.This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population,with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future.This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population,and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model.Drawing upon the results of these two predictions,the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively.Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission,the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side.The findings are as follows:after implementing the universal two-child policy,China's grain,energy consumption,domestic water demand,and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces.To meet the needs arising from future population growth,food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future,while relying more on imports.Stability of the water supply needs to be improved,especially in Beijing,Henan,Jiangsu,Qinghai,and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger.Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.

How China＇s Fiscal Policy Contributes to Investment and Economic Growth： Experience and Lessons

This paper （1） discusses how the two indicators used in official statistics of China, namely total investment in fixed assets and the gross fixed capital formation, reflect changes infixed asset investment and their relationship, （2） analyzes the growth of fixed asset investment and its contribution to changes of economic growth rate since the reform and opening-up, and （3） explains how fiscal policy impacts the growth of fixed asset investment and analyzes in detail the impacts of the two rounds of contractionary fiscal policy, two rounds of expansionary fiscal policy and one round of neutral fiscal policy on China＇ s fixed asset investment growth since reform and opening-up using full and accurate data. Practice shows that the impact of fiscal policy on China＇ s fixed asset investment is direct and obvious, yet sometimes too drastic. In the future, fiscal policy should be used in alignment with other economic policies with appropriate intensity and timing so that it will help stabilize the growth of fixed asset investment.

货币政策不确定性对企业全要素生产率的影响研究

依据2005—2021年A股上市企业数据,运用SVAR-SV模型,逐步分离宏观经济冲击和货币政策水平冲击,构建货币政策不确定性指数,考量货币政策不确定性对企业全要素生产率的影响。结果显示:相较于金融摩擦机制,货币政策不确定性主要通过实物期权和增长期权机制抑制企业全要素生产率增长;受企业异质性影响,货币政策不确定性对国有控股、中小规模和中西部企业全要素生产率的抑制效果更为显著。

产业政策与企业创新:资源获取与信息治理

基于沪深两市A股2007—2019年上市公司面板的经验证据,通过双重差分检验了“十三五”规划的静态效应以及动态效应,结果表明,“十三五”规划的出台能显著提升企业创新水平。对于产业政策与企业创新水平的正相关关系,产权性质发挥了负向调节作用,而市场竞争程度和市场化进程分别发挥了正向调节作用。产业政策主要通过扩大银行贷款、商业信用、降低股权融资成本的融资约束缓解和公司信息透明度提升两条路径来提升企业创新。

链长制政策与中国企业高质量发展——基于产业链供应链韧性视角的考察

在中美贸易摩擦持续升级和慢全球化的新国际环境下,产业链供应链安全与韧性被视为实现以全要素生产率提升为表征的中国企业高质量发展的有效保障。在此背景下,我国部分省份探索性地实施产业链链长制政策,以期增强产业链供应链韧性和企业协同联动能力,促进全要素生产率的释放,助推中国企业高质量发展。基于2014-2022年中国A股上市公司数据,以链长制作为一项政策冲击事件,检验其对全要素生产率的影响。结果表明:链长制政策可以显著提升企业全要素生产率,促进中国企业高质量发展。机制检验发现,链长制主要从供应关系稳定、供需结构优化和主体协同创新三个不同的产业链供应链韧性层面,提升企业全要素生产率。异质性分析发现,链长制对年轻企业、非国有企业、技术密集型企业和产业集聚水平较高地区企业的全要素生产率提升作用更加强烈。因此,要进一步构建完善的链长制政策体系,以产业链供应链全过程为着力点,强化产业链供应链韧性,助力中国企业高质量发展。

四川省科技金融政策执行效果评价

经济发展离不开科技创新,科技创新需要资金支持,金融服务需要政策支持,科技金融政策的效果需要评价,总结经验,发现不足,进一步推进科技金融政策促进科技金融,从而实现科技创新和经济发展。本文通过对四川省科技金融政策的评价,结合四川省科研经费的投入和研发队伍的规模和作用,根据GDP和有效专利受理等产出效应,参照云南省和贵州省科技金融政策效果,运用DEA-Malmquist-Tobit研究方法研究了四川省科技金融政策对四川省全要素生产率的促进作用。研究发现,四川省科技金融政策对四川省生产率的发展和经济进步具有较好的促进作用,同时也发现在科技金融政策的引领下,科研经费的投入也对经济发展起到了积极作用。

基于DSGE模型的科技信贷激励政策研究

通过构建基于全要素生产率厂商异质性的NK-DSGE(新凯恩斯—动态随机一般均衡)模型,模拟科技信贷激励政策的传导机制与政策效果,研究发现政策效果从大到小依次是常规货币政策、政府部门贴息、中央银行再贷款利率、中央银行定向降准、中央银行再贷款抵押率,与我国科技信贷激励政策的实践效果相吻合。进一步研究发现,政府贴息、再贷款利率的外生冲击波动幅度对政策效果影响弹性更大。建议地方政府应和银行加强联动,完善科技信贷风险补偿机制、贷款担保体系;另外,中国人民人行应加强常规货币政策实施精准性,并探索更加灵活的结构型货币政策机制。

高新技术企业税收减免政策对提高全要素生产率的影响研究

文章运用2020—2022年度我国东部一城市的2万多家高新技术企业统计数据,采用固定效应模型,研究以研发加计扣除减免和高新技术企业所得税减免为代表的税收减免政策对高新技术企业全要素生产率的影响效应。基于创新要素投入和创新产出角度研究高新技术企业税收减免政策对全要素生产率的影响路径。研究结果表明:高新技术企业税收减免政策能够显著促进全要素生产率的提升。高新技术企业税收减免政策能够通过促进企业创新要素投入和创新产出,从而提升全要素生产率,相比较而言,创新产出的中介作用偏弱。相对来看,两类税收减免政策对初创期、非盈利组和民营企业的高新技术企业全要素生产率的影响效应较为显著。而在不同认定时限分组情况下,研发加计扣除减免对新晋高新技术企业的全要素生产率影响较大,而高新技术企业所得税减免对老牌高新技术企业的全要素生产率影响较大。

长短期财政政策不确定性、企业创新决策与全要素生产率

笔者通过构建包含财政政策反应函数的成分GARCH模型测度了长期和短期财政政策不确定性,基于中国A股上市公司的面板数据推断了长期和短期财政政策不确定性对全要素生产率的因果效应,并从理论和实证角度分析内在作用机制。研究发现:长期和短期财政政策不确定性对全要素生产率的影响方向不同,长期财政政策不确定性有利于全要素生产率提升,短期财政政策不确定性则降低全要素生产率。其中,企业创新决策是长短期财政政策不确定性影响全要素生产率的重要机制,长期财政政策不确定性鼓励企业选择增加创新的决策,而短期财政政策不确定性导致企业选择推迟创新的决策。短期财政政策不确定性对非国有企业全要素生产率的负面影响更大,而长期财政政策不确定性对不同所有权属性企业全要素生产率的影响无差异。

碳交易试点市场激励型环境规制与企业全要素生产率影响研究

市场激励型环境规制在保护环境的同时对于经济发展会产生一定的影响,文章基于碳交易试点政策来探讨市场激励型环境规制对于企业全要素生产率的影响,以2010—2022年我国沪深A股上市公司数据为基础,通过构建双重差分模型进行实证分析,结果表明:(1)市场激励型环境规制对于企业全要素生产率具有显著的正向影响效果;(2)在碳配额方式采用部分有偿、碳交易价格较低的地区正向影响效果更为明显,除此之外,相比于东部地区,在碳交易政策背景下的中、西部地区市场激励型环境规制对于企业全要素生产率的正向影响效果更显著;(3)通过中介效应模型分析,该环境规制满足“波特假说”的设定,能够激励企业研发创新而提高企业全要素生产率,同时还有降低企业纳税压力或者缓解企业融资约束这两条提升路径。基于上述结论,建议可以从加强传统企业设备升级、增加有偿碳配额方式、维持碳交易价格或者增加企业研发创新活动等来维持企业自身的发展。