Does innovative city pilot policy promote urban green growth in China?An analysis of green total factor productivity,2005-2020

The innovative city pilot policy(ICPP)is an essential manifestation of China’s construction of an innovative and green-driven development country.We incorporated urban green total factor productivity(GTFP)growth into the evaluation of ICPP.Based on the panel data of 223 cities in China from 2005 to 2020,we used the difference-in-differences model to empirically assess the influence and mechanism of the ICPP on urban GTFP growth.The main results show that(i)The ICPP has maintained an effectively fluctuating promotion on urban GTFP growth,mainly manifested in the urban green technological progress improvement.(ii)The ICPP has urban heterogeneity in promoting GTFP growth in pilot cities,mainly affecting key cities such as provincial capitals.(iii)The interaction between the agglomeration of producer services and the ICPP inhibits GTFP growth in pilot cities.

Effects of the Trade and Financial Governmental Policies on the Total Investment in Syria （1980-2010）

This paper attempts to investigate the effects of several financial and trade policies on the total investment in Syria, over the period 1980-2010 （before the current war）. The study employs Johansen co-integration test to check the presence of long-term relationship between explanatory and dependent variables. In addition, Vector Error Correction Model （VECM） further studies the causal relationship from dependent variable to independent variables. The Johansen co-integration test indicates a significant long-term relationship among the variables. Moreover, the Vector Error Correction Model also suggests the long run causality from the imports, exports, capital public expenditures, and subsidies to total investment. The study’s result indicates that the imports and the capital public expenditures played a significant role in supporting the total investment in the country before the war, while there was a negative role of exports in the total investment, and there was no impact of subsidies on the total investment. Before the war, foreign investment in Syria was over dominated by European Union. The paper proposes to diversify the target of investment flow to Syria, especially from China and the other BRICS countries that can take advantages from Syria and can support Syria economy after the war by the strategy of “One Road One Belt”. Theseresults may assist Syrian policy makers, after the war, to develop an economic plan that takes into account the effects of these policies to improve the total investment which will help Syria in rebuilding the economy.

Tackling China’s Pension Fund Payment Crisis:Will the “Two-Child Policy” Be the Answer?——An example with the basic pension insurance program for urban employees

Based on the reality that 29 Chinese provinces have already implemented the policy allowing a couple to raise a second child if either parent is an only child, this paper provides an empirical study on the effect of this policy on the financial status of the social pooling fund of basic pension insurance for urban employees. Our study suggests the followings. First, under the previous unchanged family planning policy, current deficits and cumulative deficits will occur in the social pooling fund in the year 2047 and 2063 respectively. Second, if lO% to 50% of qualified couples choose to raise a second child, the financial status of the social pooling fund will improve; relative to the previous unchanged family planning policy, the contribution ratio can decrease from 20% to the range between 18.06% and 19.57% without causing any changes to the original financial status of income and expenditure. Third, if the percentage of couples choosing to raise a second child rises to 60% to 100%, the contribution ratio can even decrease to the range between 16.55% and 17. 7% without causing any changes to the financial status as under the previous unchanged family planning policy. The above conclusions have all passed the sensitivity test. Therefore, the ＂two-child policy＂ for qualified couples is favorable to alleviating the payment pressures of pension insurance but the policy effectiveness is subject to fertility desire and the intensity of government implementation.

Seizures Related to Two-child Policy:A Case Report

From 1979 to 2012,the Chinese government implemented the one-child policy to control population growth.In 2013,families in which either parent was the only one child were allowed to apply for a second child.In 2016,China’s universal two-child policy was finally imposed.As such,many children who had always been the center of their family’s universe due to the unique family structure stemming from the one-child policy era became elder siblings during their adolescence.We report a case of a 9-year-old girl who developed seizures after the birth of her younger sister.The combination of clinical observation,laboratory examinations,and video-electroencephalography was not enough to make a confident diagnosis of epilepsy initially.Given her patient history and follow-up investigation,we speculated the two-child policy was related to her seizures.To our knowledge,this is the first report of seizures strongly related to the two-child policy.

The Influence of the Two-child Policy on Urbanization in China

Family planning has been China's basic national policy since 1980, but it changed from a onechild policy to a two-child policy at the end of 2015 as which will further stimulate the rapid growth of China's population and have a profound impact on the population structure and land use in China. Based on the forecast of total population change in national and provincial dimensions after the two -child policy, the paper forecasted the spatial pattern of China's population and provincial differentiation over the next 15 years, and discussed the far-reaching impact on the future urban and rural land use and planning. Conclusions as follows: the two-child policy will achieve rapid population growth in the next 5 years, then there will be a stable growth phase;the peak of China's population increase will occur in 2030 with a total population of about 1.55 billion people, which will continue the regional differentiation of urbanization, and urbanization level in southeastern region will remain generally higher than that of the northwest. In addition, population growth brings new demands in urban and rural construction land, therefore, more intensive use of land will be the inevitable choice for the future development for China.

Study on the Influence of the the Universal Two-childPolicy on China＇s Pension Payment

In the face of the continuous decline in the birth rate and the aging of the peak of aging, following the implementation of the ＂Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Comprehensively Deepening the Reform of Some Major Issues＂ adopted by the Filth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee on November 15, 2013, the party is the only child. Female couples can have a policy of giving birth to two children. On October 29, 2015, China introduced the ＂two-child policy＂, completely replacing the ＂one-child policy＂ that has been implemented in China for more than 30 years. The ＂two-child comprehensive＂ can alleviate the unfavorable population trend that plagues China＇s social security system to a certain extent. Optimize the age structure of the population and increase the supply of labor. However, for a long time, the financial distress and management dilemma faced by China＇s pension payment still exist, and the loose population birth policy will have a great impact on reducing pension payment, and will gradually appear in the policy implementation. This article combines the ＂comprehensive two-child＂ policy, focusing on the role of the new population birth policy to alleviate the pressure on China＇s pension.

A Study of the Universal Two-child Policy’s Impact on China’s Future Population

The most essential step in adjusting and improving the childbearing policy, the universal two-child policy will produce far-reaching impacts on the future development of China’s population. With its implementation, the country’s total population will peak later, the underage population and its proportion will increase substantially, the working-age population will experience a slower decline, and the aging of China’s population will be eased. However, the drop in the proportion of working-age people over the last 15 years has expedited the reduction of the demographic dividend, the elderly population will remain unaffected over the next 60 years, the aging of the population will continue to deepen, and at the same time, the increased child dependency burden will expand the overall dependency ratio.

The employment impact analysis of Full-scale two-child policy for career women

With the development of China＇s childbearing policy changes in recent years, it causes effects to women＇s social life. Based on the questionnaire survey of influencing factors about professional women＇s intention of second child birth and with two child policy was carry out as the background, summed up the three major factors influencing the working women fertility fertility intention, emotional factors and external security. At the same time using the structural equation model, studies the impact of the influence factors to the career development of working women. The conclusion is that childbearing willing has little effects on the professional women in Shanghai, emotional factors and external security has certain impact on women＇ s employment.

Effects of the New Two-child Policy On Family Old-age Security

This paper analyzes the current situation of the aging population and low fertility rate.lt is found that the aging process is accelerated, the population growth potential is decreased, and the elderly dependency ratio is higher.Secondly, this paper mainly analyzes the impact of the new two-child policy on family pension security from three aspects： population policy, family support and social security.There are two aspects of the effects, the positive effects are：improve fertility, reduce elderly dependency ratio, relieve population aging,enhance the family development： the negative effects are： tremendous pressure on public resources, further inequality in birth right, heavy economic pressure on the family.At last. this paper puts forward the constructive countermeasures against the problems of the policy and the was out of the family old-age security.

产业政策与企业创新:资源获取与信息治理

基于沪深两市A股2007—2019年上市公司面板的经验证据,通过双重差分检验了“十三五”规划的静态效应以及动态效应,结果表明,“十三五”规划的出台能显著提升企业创新水平。对于产业政策与企业创新水平的正相关关系,产权性质发挥了负向调节作用,而市场竞争程度和市场化进程分别发挥了正向调节作用。产业政策主要通过扩大银行贷款、商业信用、降低股权融资成本的融资约束缓解和公司信息透明度提升两条路径来提升企业创新。

链长制政策与中国企业高质量发展——基于产业链供应链韧性视角的考察

在中美贸易摩擦持续升级和慢全球化的新国际环境下,产业链供应链安全与韧性被视为实现以全要素生产率提升为表征的中国企业高质量发展的有效保障。在此背景下,我国部分省份探索性地实施产业链链长制政策,以期增强产业链供应链韧性和企业协同联动能力,促进全要素生产率的释放,助推中国企业高质量发展。基于2014-2022年中国A股上市公司数据,以链长制作为一项政策冲击事件,检验其对全要素生产率的影响。结果表明:链长制政策可以显著提升企业全要素生产率,促进中国企业高质量发展。机制检验发现,链长制主要从供应关系稳定、供需结构优化和主体协同创新三个不同的产业链供应链韧性层面,提升企业全要素生产率。异质性分析发现,链长制对年轻企业、非国有企业、技术密集型企业和产业集聚水平较高地区企业的全要素生产率提升作用更加强烈。因此,要进一步构建完善的链长制政策体系,以产业链供应链全过程为着力点,强化产业链供应链韧性,助力中国企业高质量发展。

四川省科技金融政策执行效果评价

经济发展离不开科技创新,科技创新需要资金支持,金融服务需要政策支持,科技金融政策的效果需要评价,总结经验,发现不足,进一步推进科技金融政策促进科技金融,从而实现科技创新和经济发展。本文通过对四川省科技金融政策的评价,结合四川省科研经费的投入和研发队伍的规模和作用,根据GDP和有效专利受理等产出效应,参照云南省和贵州省科技金融政策效果,运用DEA-Malmquist-Tobit研究方法研究了四川省科技金融政策对四川省全要素生产率的促进作用。研究发现,四川省科技金融政策对四川省生产率的发展和经济进步具有较好的促进作用,同时也发现在科技金融政策的引领下,科研经费的投入也对经济发展起到了积极作用。

基于DSGE模型的科技信贷激励政策研究

通过构建基于全要素生产率厂商异质性的NK-DSGE(新凯恩斯—动态随机一般均衡)模型,模拟科技信贷激励政策的传导机制与政策效果,研究发现政策效果从大到小依次是常规货币政策、政府部门贴息、中央银行再贷款利率、中央银行定向降准、中央银行再贷款抵押率,与我国科技信贷激励政策的实践效果相吻合。进一步研究发现,政府贴息、再贷款利率的外生冲击波动幅度对政策效果影响弹性更大。建议地方政府应和银行加强联动,完善科技信贷风险补偿机制、贷款担保体系;另外,中国人民人行应加强常规货币政策实施精准性,并探索更加灵活的结构型货币政策机制。

货币政策不确定性对企业全要素生产率的影响研究

依据2005—2021年A股上市企业数据,运用SVAR-SV模型,逐步分离宏观经济冲击和货币政策水平冲击,构建货币政策不确定性指数,考量货币政策不确定性对企业全要素生产率的影响。结果显示:相较于金融摩擦机制,货币政策不确定性主要通过实物期权和增长期权机制抑制企业全要素生产率增长;受企业异质性影响,货币政策不确定性对国有控股、中小规模和中西部企业全要素生产率的抑制效果更为显著。

碳交易试点市场激励型环境规制与企业全要素生产率影响研究

市场激励型环境规制在保护环境的同时对于经济发展会产生一定的影响,文章基于碳交易试点政策来探讨市场激励型环境规制对于企业全要素生产率的影响,以2010—2022年我国沪深A股上市公司数据为基础,通过构建双重差分模型进行实证分析,结果表明:(1)市场激励型环境规制对于企业全要素生产率具有显著的正向影响效果;(2)在碳配额方式采用部分有偿、碳交易价格较低的地区正向影响效果更为明显,除此之外,相比于东部地区,在碳交易政策背景下的中、西部地区市场激励型环境规制对于企业全要素生产率的正向影响效果更显著;(3)通过中介效应模型分析,该环境规制满足“波特假说”的设定,能够激励企业研发创新而提高企业全要素生产率,同时还有降低企业纳税压力或者缓解企业融资约束这两条提升路径。基于上述结论,建议可以从加强传统企业设备升级、增加有偿碳配额方式、维持碳交易价格或者增加企业研发创新活动等来维持企业自身的发展。

长短期财政政策不确定性、企业创新决策与全要素生产率

笔者通过构建包含财政政策反应函数的成分GARCH模型测度了长期和短期财政政策不确定性,基于中国A股上市公司的面板数据推断了长期和短期财政政策不确定性对全要素生产率的因果效应,并从理论和实证角度分析内在作用机制。研究发现:长期和短期财政政策不确定性对全要素生产率的影响方向不同,长期财政政策不确定性有利于全要素生产率提升,短期财政政策不确定性则降低全要素生产率。其中,企业创新决策是长短期财政政策不确定性影响全要素生产率的重要机制,长期财政政策不确定性鼓励企业选择增加创新的决策,而短期财政政策不确定性导致企业选择推迟创新的决策。短期财政政策不确定性对非国有企业全要素生产率的负面影响更大,而长期财政政策不确定性对不同所有权属性企业全要素生产率的影响无差异。

绿色信贷政策会影响企业产品市场竞争力吗?——一个全面成本管理的视角

通过成本驱动效应,绿色信贷政策不仅会激励企业加强全面成本管理,还会激励企业进行研发创新,从而提升其产品市场竞争力。基于2009—2022年我国A股上市企业的数据,本文运用双重差分模型进行实证检验,结果表明绿色信贷政策的确能够显著提升企业产品市场竞争力。机制检验结果显示,绿色信贷政策通过降低全面成本管理成本和提高全要素生产率,对产品市场竞争力产生显著正面影响。异质性检验结果表明,在两职合一、民营企业和小规模的企业样本中,绿色信贷政策对企业的产品市场竞争力的影响更大。由此可见,绿色信贷政策能够助力企业实现绿色转型,有利于企业实现高质量可持续发展。

碳排放权交易政策的资源配置效应--基于资源要素的企业内外“双循环”视角

作为实现“双碳”战略的重要手段,碳排放权交易政策能否在实现碳减排目标的同时改善资源配置,实现环境保护与经济协调发展,是一个值得探究的问题。选取2008-2020年高污染工业企业数据,以2011年碳排放权交易政策出台作为准自然实验,采用双重差分模型和三重差分模型研究该政策对企业内以及企业间资源配置效率的影响。结果表明:碳排放权交易政策可以促进资源在企业内部的循环调整,优化企业内资源配置效率,还能够提高企业市场份额增长率,但同时也弱化了企业之间的资源配置效率,使资源更多地流向了低生产率企业,从而造成低生产率企业的市场份额增长更快。进一步研究表明:碳排放权交易政策对企业内与企业间资源配置效率的影响在异质性企业中呈现出非对称性,主要表现为碳排放权交易政策对非政治关联企业和大规模企业内部资源配置效率的影响更大,并且对非政治关联企业和小规模企业之间资源配置效率产生更显著影响。研究结论为碳排放权交易政策推进经济高质量发展提供了政策启示。

预算绩效管理与财政政策效能提升--作用机理、现实困境和改革路径

作为提高财政资源配置效率和财政资金使用效益的重要手段,预算绩效管理有助于促进财政政策更加精准和可持续,真正做到把有限的财政资金高效地花在正确的地方。本文基于过程与结果相统一视角,从财政政策绩效和财政治理能力维度解析财政政策效能的内涵和构成,并从宏观、中观和微观三个层次探讨预算绩效管理提升财政政策效能的作用机理,厘清预算绩效管理与财政政策效能提升的内在关联。面对预算绩效管理提升财政政策效能的现实困境,应以理念强化、流程优化、要素支撑和公众参与为着力点,进一步深化预算绩效管理改革,从而为财政政策效能提质增效提供工具支持和路径保障。

生育水平与女性劳动参与率的动态关系研究

生育水平变动会影响未来劳动年龄人口供给,但生育水平与女性劳动参与率的相关性研究结论尚有争议。基于我国1970—2021年生育率水平和女性劳动参与率时间序列数据,通过平稳性检验、协整检验以及格兰杰因果检验后,建立向量自回归(VAR)模型对两者之间的变动关系进行实证分析和检验,从宏观角度揭示生育水平变动与女性劳动参与率变化的动态关联性。研究发现,我国生育水平与女性劳动参与率的相关性由1979—1990年的负相关转变为1991—2021年的正相关,生育水平与女性劳动参与率存在长期稳定的均衡关系,总和生育率与女性劳动参与率已总体呈现出一定的格兰杰因果关系;1991—2021年我国总和生育率与女性劳动参与率的互动响应关系显著,女性劳动参与率变动对总和生育率变动的冲击影响呈现滞后性,且影响程度没有总和生育率对女性劳动参与率的冲击影响大。因此,在生育政策调整背景下,我国应充分重视生育水平与女性劳动参与率的互动影响和冲击响应关系,有效保障女性生育和劳动权益,推进性别平等的生育支持体系建设,在提振社会生育水平的同时稳定女性劳动参与率。