Modeling Study of the Evolution of the Climate Crisis over Time

The research proposal has the following scope. In relation to the general objective, the aim is to model the evolution of the climate crisis over time taking as variables global warming, greenhouse gases, atmospheric temperature and ocean temperature, as well as the continuity of the natural phenomena in terms of their measurement, temporality and projection. To achieve the above, the description of the following specific objectives is proposed: - Identify the variables corresponding to the climate crisis, their relationship and correlation between them;- Develop projection models with mathematical and statistical arrangements to project them in a given time and, in this way, - Propose mitigation measures for different unfavorable scenarios. The main variables that are currently directly linked to Climate Change are: CO2, the atmospheric index, precipitation, temperature and wind speed. The correlation that exists between climatic elements is very high, both in historical behavior and projected behavior for 2035, their correlation is estimated at 0.90, 0.95, 0.93 and 91 respectively. The mathematical models used to manipulate the historical and projected analysis of the variables studied: are the normal arrangements, this ensures that the values can be used on a common scale;Then there is the analysis of the historical variables using the linear trend, and finally there is the analysis of the variables projected to the year 2035 using the polynomial trend. In both situations, the direct relationship of greenhouse gases, mainly CO2, is directly related to the variations of the variables over time, which is a very worrying result because we can no longer talk about climate change, but rather about CLIMATE CRISIS. To a large extent, a change in the paradigm of exploitation of the resources of our mother earth is required. Alert in an SOS manner to the great powers, which make reasonable use of technology, for this attenuation measures are proposed.

Film and Television Website Scores Authenticity Verification Based on the Emotional Analysis

Sentiment analysis is a method to identify and understand the emotion in the text through NLP and text analysis. In the era of information technology, there is often a certain error between the comments on the movie website and the actual score of the movie, and sentiment analysis technology provides a new way to solve this problem. In this paper, Python is used to obtain the movie review data from the Douban platform, and the model is constructed and trained by using naive Bayes and Bi-LSTM. According to the index, a better Bi-LSTM model is selected to classify the emotion of users’ movie reviews, and the classification results are scored according to the classification results, and compared with the real ratings on the website. According to the error of the final comparison results, the feasibility of this technology in the scoring direction of film reviews is being verified. By applying this technology, the phenomenon of film rating distortion in the information age can be prevented and the rights and interests of film and television works can be safeguarded.

Construction of Psychological Adjustment Function Model of Music Education Based on Emotional Tendency Analysis

In the face offierce competition in the social environment,mental health problems gradually get the attention of the public,in order to achieve accurate mental health data analysis,the construction of music education is based on emotional tendency analysis of psychological adjustment function model.Design emotional tendency analysis of music education psychological adjustment function architecture,music teaching goal as psychological adjust-ment function architecture building orientation,music teaching content as a foundation for psychological adjust-ment function architecture and music teaching process as a psychological adjustment function architecture building,music teaching evaluation as the key of building key regulating function architecture,Establish a core literacy oriented evaluation system.Different evaluation methods were used to obtain the evaluation results.Four levels of psychological adjustment function model of music education are designed,and the psychological adjust-ment function of music education is put forward,thus completing the construction of psychological adjustment function model of music education.The experimental results show that the absolute value of the data acquisition error of the designed model is minimum,which is not more than 0.2.It is less affected by a bad coefficient and has good performance.It can quickly converge to the best state in the actual prediction process and has a strong con-vergence ability.

Nursing model of midwifery and postural and psychological interventions:Impact on maternal and fetal outcomes and negative emotions of primiparas

BACKGROUND Primiparas are usually at high risk of experiencing perinatal depression,which may cause prolonged labor,increased blood loss,and intensified pain,affecting maternal and fetal outcomes.Therefore,interventions are necessary to improve maternal and fetal outcomes and alleviate primiparas’negative emotions(NEs).AIM To discusses the impact of nursing responsibility in midwifery and postural and psychological interventions on maternal and fetal outcomes as well as primiparas’NEs.METHODS As participants,115 primiparas admitted to Quanzhou Maternity and Child Healthcare Hospital between May 2020 and May 2022 were selected.Among them,56 primiparas(control group,Con)were subjected to conventional midwifery and routine nursing.The remaining 59(research group,Res)were subjected to the nursing model of midwifery and postural and psychological interventions.Both groups were comparatively analyzed from the perspectives of delivery mode(cesarean,natural,or forceps-assisted),maternal and fetal outcomes(uterine inertia,postpartum hemorrhage,placental abruption,neonatal pulmonary injury,and neonatal asphyxia),NEs(Hamilton Anxiety/Depressionrating Scale,HAMA/HAMD),labor duration,and nursing satisfaction.RESULTS The Res exhibited a markedly higher natural delivery rate and nursing satisfaction than the Con.Additionally,the Res indicated a lower incidence of adverse events(e.g.,uterine inertia,postpartum hemorrhage,placental abruption,neonatal lung injury,and neonatal asphyxia)and shortened duration of various stages of labor.It also showed statistically lower post-interventional HAMA and HAMD scores than the Con and pre-interventional values.CONCLUSION The nursing model of midwifery and postural and psychological interventions increase the natural delivery rate and reduce the duration of each labor stage.These are also conducive to improving maternal and fetal outcomes and mitigating primiparas’NEs and thus deserve popularity in clinical practice.

Model considering panic emotion and personality traits for crowd evacuation

Panic is a common emotion when pedestrians are in danger during the actual evacuation, which can affect pedestrians a lot and may lead to fatalities as people are crushed or trampled. However, the systematic studies and quantitative analysis of evacuation panic, such as panic behaviors, panic evolution, and the stress responses of pedestrians with different personality traits to panic emotion are still rare. Here, combined with the theories of OCEAN(openness, conscientiousness,extroversion, agreeableness, neuroticism) model and SIS(susceptible, infected, susceptible) model, an extended cellular automata model is established by the floor field method in order to investigate the dynamics of panic emotion in the crowd and dynamics of pedestrians affected by emotion. In the model, pedestrians are divided into stable pedestrians and sensitive pedestrians according to their different personality traits in response to emotion, and their emotional state can be normal or panic. Besides, emotion contagion, emotion decay, and the influence of emotion on pedestrian movement decision-making are also considered. The simulation results show that evacuation efficiency will be reduced, for panic pedestrians may act maladaptive behaviors, thereby making the crowd more chaotic. The results further suggest that improving pedestrian psychological ability and raising the standard of management can effectively increase evacuation efficiency. And it is necessary to reduce the panic level of group as soon as possible at the beginning of evacuation. We hope this research could provide a new method to analyze crowd evacuation in panic situations.

Artificial emotional model based on finite state machine

According to the basic emotional theory, the artificial emotional model based on the finite state machine（FSM） was presented. In finite state machine model of emotion, the emotional space included the basic emotional space and the multiple emotional spaces. The emotion-switching diagram was defined and transition fimction was developed using Markov chain and linear interpolation algorithm. The simulation model was built using Stateflow toolbox and Simulink toolbox based on the Matlab platform. And the model included three subsystems： the input one, the emotion one and the behavior one. In the emotional subsystem, the responses of different personalities to the external stimuli were described by defining personal space. This model takes states from an emotional space and updates its state depending on its current state and a state of its input （also a state-emotion）. The simulation model realizes the process of switching the emotion from the neutral state to other basic emotions. The simulation result is proved to correspond to emotion-switching law of human beings.

Development of Crisis Management Models Combined with Cloud Computing

Three monitor models of enterprise crisis were introduced,i.e.,the monitoring model of enterprise crisis based on intelligent Meta search,the enterprise crisis management model based on artificial neural network and the combined early-warning model.Combined with the advantages of cloud computing,the prominent crisis management models are improved and more efficient,comprehensive and accurate in enterprise crisis management.Through the empirical study of the models,cloud computing makes the early warning structures of enterprise crisis tend to be more simple and efficient,cloud computing can effectively enhance the recognition ability and learning ability of the crisis management,and cloud computing can keep data information updating and realize the dynamic management of enterprise joint early-warning.At the same time,according to the comparative analysis and the experimental result,the crisis management models based on cloud computing also need some improvements.

Financial crisis early-warning model of listed companies based on predicted value

To establish a financial early-warning model with high accuracy of discrimination and achieve the aim of long-term prediction, principal component analysis (PCA), Fisher discriminant, together with grey forecasting models are used at the same time. 110 A-share companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange are selected as research samples. And 10 extractive factors with 89.746% of all the original information are determined by applying PCA, which obtains the goal of dimension reduction without information loss. Based on the index system, the early-warning model is constructed according to the Fisher rules. And then the GM(1,1) is adopted to predict financial ratios in 2004, according to 40 testing samples from 2000 to 2003. Finally, two different methods, a self-validated and a forecasting-validated, are used to test the validity of the financial crisis warning model. The empirical results show that the model has better predictability and feasibility, and GM(1,1) contributes to the ability to make long-term predictions.

A Dynamic Cross Contagion Model of Currency Crisis between Two Countries

The contagion aspect of the currency crisis is an important research issue today.In this paper, we set up a dynamic differential model of currency crisis cross contagions between two countries by expanding generalized logistics model, and analyze all kinds of possible equilibrium conditions. It is probably a new idea of studying currency crisis contagion mechanism.

Machine Learning Based Depression,Anxiety,and Stress Predictive Model During COVID-19 Crisis

Corona Virus Disease-2019(COVID-19)was reported at first in Wuhan city,China by December 2019.World Health Organization(WHO)declared COVID-19 as a pandemic i.e.,global health crisis onMarch 11,2020.The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns to curb the spread,not only affected the economic status of a number of countries,but it also resulted in increased levels of Depression,Anxiety,and Stress(DAS)among people.Therefore,there is a need exists to comprehend the relationship among psycho-social factors in a country that is hypothetically affected by high levels of stress and fear;with tremendously-limitingmeasures of social distancing and lockdown in force;and with high rates of new cases and mortalities.With this motivation,the current study aims at investigating theDAS levels among college students during COVID-19 lockdown since they are identified as a highly-susceptible population.The current study proposes to develop Intelligent Feature Subset Selection withMachine Learning-based DAS predictive(IFSSML-DAS)model.The presented IFSSML-DAS model involves data preprocessing,Feature Subset Selection(FSS),classification,and parameter tuning.Besides,IFSSML-DAS model uses Group Gray Wolf Optimization based FSS(GGWO-FSS)technique to reduce the curse of dimensionality.In addition,Beetle Swarm Optimization based Least Square Support Vector Machine(BSO-LSSVM)model is also employed for classification in which the weight and bias parameters of the LSSVM model are optimally adjusted using BSO algorithm.The performance of the proposed IFSSML-DAS model was tested using a benchmark DASS-21 dataset and the results were investigated under different measures.The outcome of the study suggests the development of specialized programs to handleDAS among population so as to overcome COVID-19 crisis.

On the Mechanism of CDOs behind the Current Financial Crisis and Mathematical Modeling with Levy Distributions

This paper aims to reveal the mechanism of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and how CDOs extend the current global financial crisis. We first introduce the concept of CDOs and give a brief account of the de-velopment of CDOs. We then explicate the mechanism of CDOs within a concrete example with mortgage deals and we outline the evolution of the current financial crisis. Based on our overview of pricing CDOs in various existing random models, we propose an idea of modeling the random phenomenon with the feature of heavy tail dependence for possible implements towards a new random modeling for CDOs.

The Application of the Emerging Market Score Model in China During the Global Crisis Period： A Countertrend

The global economic crisis that blew up at the end of 2006 in the United States has had extremely negative impacts on the social, political, and economic fields. The countries operating in the most affected macro areas---the United States and Europe---have put through the wringer the domestic trade relationships as well as the international ones, by injecting a chain reaction into the global economic scenario. However, there are countries that seem to be free from the economic and financial contagion overflowing over the past years, as they are moved by an ＂invincible projection toward the growth＂. The present study aims to analyze how much the main emerging market of China has been effectively involved in this vicious circle. More specifically, the study intends to propose an empirical analysis on the real connection between the macroecnnomic data and the strong structure of the Chinese publicly listed companies. This paper investigates the prediction of failure among 3,220 Chinese publicly traded companies （listed companies） during the global crisis period. By analysing the financial accounting data over the past seven years （2008 to 2014）, the emerging market score （EMS） has been adopted in order to investigate the impact of the crisis on financial distress in the main emerging market of China. The results confirm the following hypotheses： On one hand, the great majority of companies have not been suffering the downturn, since 71.93% of the entire samples present no risk of financial distress during the global crisis; on the other hand, only 6.18% have a reasonable risk of financial distress.

Applying Score Reliability Fusion to Bi-Model Emotional Speaker Recognition

Emotion mismatch between training and testing is one of the important factors causing the performance degradation of speaker recognition system. In our previous work, a bi-model emotion speaker recognition (BESR) method based on virtual HD (High Different from neutral, with large pitch offset) speech synthesizing was proposed to deal with this problem. It enhanced the system performance under mismatch emotion states in MASC, while still suffering the system risk introduced by fusing the scores from the unreliable VHD model and the neutral model with equal weight. In this paper, we propose a new BESR method based on score reliability fusion. Two strategies, by utilizing identification rate and scores average relative loss difference, are presented to estimate the weights for the two group scores. The results on both MASC and EPST shows that by using the weights generated by the two strategies, the BESR method achieve a better performance than that by using the equal weight, and the better one even achieves a result comparable to that by using the best weights selected by exhaustive strategy.

Cascaded projection of Gaussian mixture model for emotion recognition in speech and ECG signals

A cascaded projection of the Gaussian mixture model algorithm is proposed.First,the marginal distribution of the Gaussian mixture model is computed for different feature dimensions, and a number of sub-classifiers are generated using the marginal distribution model.Each sub-classifier is based on different feature sets.The cascaded structure is adopted to fuse the sub-classifiers dynamically to achieve sample adaptation ability.Secondly,the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is verified on electrocardiogram emotional signal and speech emotional signal.Emotional data including fidgetiness,happiness and sadness is collected by induction experiments.Finally,the emotion feature extraction method is discussed,including heart rate variability, the chaotic electrocardiogram feature and utterance level static feature.The emotional feature reduction methods are studied, including principle component analysis,sequential forward selection, the Fisher discriminant ratio and maximal information coefficient.The experimental results show that the proposed classification algorithm can effectively improve recognition accuracy in two different scenarios.

On the Crisis of Geotectonical Science in China and the World

The crisis in the present-day geotectonics consists in that leading specialists do not recognize the rotation of the Earth. The absolute majority of tectonists base their constructions on the model of an unmovable Earth. The laws of geodynamics differ essentially from the models of the unmovable or rotating Earth. As the Earth does rotate, it is to be hoped that sooner or later the researchers will be made to use a model of the rotating Earth. But the adoption of a new model is not a simple matter. It is necessary to overcome some traditions so that many tectonical regularities can be established anew on “a clean sheet”.

EEG Emotion Recognition Using an Attention Mechanism Based on an Optimized Hybrid Model

Emotions serve various functions.The traditional emotion recognition methods are based primarily on readily accessible facial expressions,gestures,and voice signals.However,it is often challenging to ensure that these non-physical signals are valid and reliable in practical applications.Electroencephalogram(EEG)signals are more successful than other signal recognition methods in recognizing these characteristics in real-time since they are difficult to camouflage.Although EEG signals are commonly used in current emotional recognition research,the accuracy is low when using traditional methods.Therefore,this study presented an optimized hybrid pattern with an attention mechanism(FFT_CLA)for EEG emotional recognition.First,the EEG signal was processed via the fast fourier transform(FFT),after which the convolutional neural network(CNN),long short-term memory(LSTM),and CNN-LSTM-attention(CLA)methods were used to extract and classify the EEG features.Finally,the experiments compared and analyzed the recognition results obtained via three DEAP dataset models,namely FFT_CNN,FFT_LSTM,and FFT_CLA.The final experimental results indicated that the recognition rates of the FFT_CNN,FFT_LSTM,and FFT_CLA models within the DEAP dataset were 87.39%,88.30%,and 92.38%,respectively.The FFT_CLA model improved the accuracy of EEG emotion recognition and used the attention mechanism to address the often-ignored importance of different channels and samples when extracting EEG features.

Emotional Gait Generation for a Humanoid Robot

In this paper, an emotional mathematical model and affective state probability description space of a humanoid robot are set up on the basis of psycho-dynamics＇ psychological energy and affective energy conservation law. The emotional state transferring process and hidden Markov chain algorithm of stimulating transition process are then studied. The simulation results show that the mathematical model is applicable to the authentic affective state change rule of human beings. Finally, the gait generation experiment results of control signal and electric current tracking wave-form are presented to demonstrate the validity of the proposed mathematical model.

A Comparison of Spillover Effects before, during and after the 2008 Financial Crisis

This paper applies graphical modelling to the S & P 500, Nikkei 225 and FTSE 100 stock market indices to trace the spillover of returns and volatility between these three major world stock market indices before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. We find that the depth of market integration changed significantly between the pre-crisis period and the crisis and post-crisis period. Graphical models of both return and volatility spillovers are presented for each period. We conclude that graphical models are a useful tool in the analysis of multivariate time series where tracing the flow of causality is important.

Emotional inference by means of Choquet integral and λ-fuzzy measurement in consideration of ambiguity of human mentality

Research on human emotions has started to address psychological aspects of human nature and has advanced to the point of designing various models that represent them quantitatively and systematically. Based on the findings, a method is suggested for emotional space formation and emotional inference that enhance the quality and maximize the reality of emotion-based personalized services. In consideration of the subjective tendencies of individuals, AHP was adopted for the quantitative evaluation of human emotions, based on which an emotional space remodeling method is suggested in reference to the emotional model of Thayer and Plutchik, which takes into account personal emotions. In addition, Sugeno fuzzy inference, fuzzy measures, and Choquet integral were adopted for emotional inference in the remodeled personalized emotional space model. Its performance was evaluated through an experiment. Fourteen cases were analyzed with 4.0 and higher evaluation value of emotions inferred, for the evaluation of emotional similarity, through the case studies of 17 kinds of emotional inference methods. Matching results per inference method in ten cases accounting for 71% are confirmed. It is also found that the remaining two cases are inferred as adjoining emotion in the same section. In this manner, the similarity of inference results is verified.

EMOTIONAL SPEECH RECOGNITION BASED ON SVM WITH GMM SUPERVECTOR

Emotion recognition from speech is an important field of research in human computer interaction. In this letter the framework of Support Vector Machines (SVM) with Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) supervector is introduced for emotional speech recognition. Because of the importance of variance in reflecting the distribution of speech, the normalized mean vectors potential to exploit the information from the variance are adopted to form the GMM supervector. Comparative experiments from five aspects are conducted to study their corresponding effect to system performance. The experiment results, which indicate that the influence of number of mixtures is strong as well as influence of duration is weak, provide basis for the train set selection of Universal Background Model (UBM).