The progress made fi＇om Phase 3 to Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP3 to CMIP5） in simulating spring persistent rainfall （SPR） over East Asia was examined from the outputs of nine atmosph...The progress made fi＇om Phase 3 to Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP3 to CMIP5） in simulating spring persistent rainfall （SPR） over East Asia was examined from the outputs of nine atmospheric general circulation models （AGCMs）. The majority of the models overestimated the precipitation over the SPR domain, with the mean latitude of the SPR belt shifting to the north. The overestimation was about 1mm d-1 in the CMIP3 ensemble, and the northward displacement was about 3°, while in the CMIP5 ensemble the overestimation was suppressed to 0.7 mm d-i and the northward shift decreased to 2.5°. The SPR features a northeast-southwest extended rain belt with a slope of 0.4°N/°E. The CMIP5 ensemble yielded a smaller slope （0.2°N/°E）, whereas the CMIP3 ensemble featured an unre- alistic zonally-distributed slope. The CMIP5 models also showed better skill in simulating the interannual variability of SPR. Previous studies have suggested that the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and sensible heat flux over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are important for the existence of SPR. These two ther- mal factors were captured well in the CMIP5 ensemble, but underestimated in the CMIP3 ensemble. The variability of zonal land-sea thermal contrast is positively correlated with the rainfall amount over the main SPR center, but it was found that an overestimated thermal contrast between East Asia and South China Sea is a common problem in most of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Simulation of the meridional thermal contrast is therefore important for the future improvement of current AGCMs.展开更多
利用NCAR的CCM3(The Community Climate Model version 3)辐射模块,对IAP9L-AGCM的辐射计算方案进行了替换,并对改进的结果做了细致的评估。分析表明,新版本的模式在大多数辐射场的空间平均和分布型的模拟上有了较为明显的改进,特别是...利用NCAR的CCM3(The Community Climate Model version 3)辐射模块,对IAP9L-AGCM的辐射计算方案进行了替换,并对改进的结果做了细致的评估。分析表明,新版本的模式在大多数辐射场的空间平均和分布型的模拟上有了较为明显的改进,特别是较好地克服了原模式中陆面净辐射场的偏差。在此基础上,新版本计算的大气温度普遍升高。伴随这种变化,模式中的海平面气压、地表温度、位势高度、风场、降水、比湿等物理量都有了调整,但是变化并不明显,从而对模式的进一步发展和完善提出了新的要求。展开更多
The performances of four Chinese AGCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） in the simulation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation （BSISO） are assessed. The authors ...The performances of four Chinese AGCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） in the simulation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation （BSISO） are assessed. The authors focus on the major characteristics of BSISO： the intensity, significant period, and propagation. The results show that the four AGCMs can reproduce boreal summer intraseasonal signals of precipitation; however their limitations are also evident. Compared with the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation （CMAP） data, the models underestimate the strength of the intraseasonal oscillation （ISO） over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean （IO） during the boreal summer （May to October）, but overestimate the intraseasonal variability over the western Pacific （WP）. In the model results, the westward propagation dominates, whereas the eastward propagation dominates in the CMAP data. The northward propagation in these models is tilted southwest-northeast, which is also different from the CMAP result. Thus, there is not a northeast-southwest tilted rain belt revolution off the equator during the BSISO＇s eastward journey in the models. The biases of the BSISO are consistent with the summer mean state, especially the vertical shear. Analysis also shows that there is a positive feedback between the intraseasonal precipitation and the summer mean precipitation. The positive feedback processes may amplify the models＇ biases in the BSISO simulation.展开更多
The IAP 2-L AGCM is modified by introducing a set of climatological surface albedo data into the model for substituting the model′s original surface albedo parameterization. The comparison between the observations an...The IAP 2-L AGCM is modified by introducing a set of climatological surface albedo data into the model for substituting the model′s original surface albedo parameterization. The comparison between the observations and the simulation results by the modified model shows that the general features of the East Asian summer monsoon can be well reproduced by the modified IAP 2-L AGCM. Especially for the simulation of monsoon precipitation, the modified model can well reproduce not only the monthly mean features of the summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia, but also the stepwise advance and retreat of the East Asian summer monsoon rainbelt. Analysis results demonstrate that the good simulation of the monsoon rainfall is closely related to the reasonable simulation of the large scale general circulation over East Asian region, such as the western Pacific subtropical high, Asian monsoon low and the low level flows. The good performance of the modified model in the rainfall simulation shows its great potential to serve as a useful tool for the prediction of summer drought/flood events over East Asia.展开更多
Recent studies have demonstrated a persistent decreasing trend in the spring sensible heat(SH) source over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) during the past three decades. By comparing simulations from nine state-of-the-art atm...Recent studies have demonstrated a persistent decreasing trend in the spring sensible heat(SH) source over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) during the past three decades. By comparing simulations from nine state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation models(AGCMs) driven by historical forcing fields with both observational data and five reanalysis datasets, the authors found that the AGCMs are unable to reproduce the change in the SH flux over the TP. This deficiency arises because the observed decreasing trend in SH flux depends primarily on the change in surface wind speed according to the bulk formula, whereas in the models it is also influenced largely by changes in the land-air temperature difference related to the systematic cold bias. In addition, an obvious discrepancy exists in other aspects of the diabatic heating simulated by the models, suggesting that a significant improvement is required in the physical schemes associated with land surface processes and diabatic heating over the complicated topography.展开更多
By using IAP 9L AGCM, two sets of long-term climatological integration have been performed with the two different interpolation procedures for generating the daily surface boundary conditions. One interpolation proced...By using IAP 9L AGCM, two sets of long-term climatological integration have been performed with the two different interpolation procedures for generating the daily surface boundary conditions. One interpolation procedure is the so-called “traditional” scheme, for which the daily surface boundary conditions are obtained by linearly interpolating between the observed monthly mean values, however the observed monthly means cannot be preserved after interpolation. The other one is the “new” scheme, for which the daily surface boundary conditions are obtained by linearly interpolating between the “artificial” monthly mean values which are based on, but are different from the observed ones, after interpolating with this new scheme, not only the observed monthly mean values are preserved, the time series of the new generated daily values is also more consistent with the observation. Comparison of the model results shows that the differences of the globally or zonally averaged fields between these two integrations are quite small, and this is due to the compensating effect between the different regions. However, the differences of the two patterns (the global or regional geographical distributions), are quite significant, for example, the magnitude of the difference in the JJA mean rainfall between these two integrations can exceed 2 mm/ day over Asian monsoon regions, and the difference in DJF mean surface air temperature can also exceed 2?C over this region. The fact that the model climatology depends quite strongly on the method of prescribing the daily surface boundary conditions suggests that in order to validate the climate model or to predict the short-term climate anomalies, either the “new? interpolation scheme or the high frequency surface boundary conditions (e.g., daily or weekly data instead of the monthly data) should be introduced. Meanwhile, as for the coupled model, the daily coupling scheme between the different component climate models ( e.g., atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models) is preferred in order to partly eliminate the “climate drift” problem which may appear during the course of direct coupling.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China(973 Program)under Grant No.2010CB951903the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant Nos.41205043,41105054 and 40890054China Meteorological Administration(GYHY201306062)
文摘The progress made fi＇om Phase 3 to Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP3 to CMIP5） in simulating spring persistent rainfall （SPR） over East Asia was examined from the outputs of nine atmospheric general circulation models （AGCMs）. The majority of the models overestimated the precipitation over the SPR domain, with the mean latitude of the SPR belt shifting to the north. The overestimation was about 1mm d-1 in the CMIP3 ensemble, and the northward displacement was about 3°, while in the CMIP5 ensemble the overestimation was suppressed to 0.7 mm d-i and the northward shift decreased to 2.5°. The SPR features a northeast-southwest extended rain belt with a slope of 0.4°N/°E. The CMIP5 ensemble yielded a smaller slope （0.2°N/°E）, whereas the CMIP3 ensemble featured an unre- alistic zonally-distributed slope. The CMIP5 models also showed better skill in simulating the interannual variability of SPR. Previous studies have suggested that the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and sensible heat flux over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are important for the existence of SPR. These two ther- mal factors were captured well in the CMIP5 ensemble, but underestimated in the CMIP3 ensemble. The variability of zonal land-sea thermal contrast is positively correlated with the rainfall amount over the main SPR center, but it was found that an overestimated thermal contrast between East Asia and South China Sea is a common problem in most of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Simulation of the meridional thermal contrast is therefore important for the future improvement of current AGCMs.
文摘利用NCAR的CCM3(The Community Climate Model version 3)辐射模块,对IAP9L-AGCM的辐射计算方案进行了替换,并对改进的结果做了细致的评估。分析表明,新版本的模式在大多数辐射场的空间平均和分布型的模拟上有了较为明显的改进,特别是较好地克服了原模式中陆面净辐射场的偏差。在此基础上,新版本计算的大气温度普遍升高。伴随这种变化,模式中的海平面气压、地表温度、位势高度、风场、降水、比湿等物理量都有了调整,但是变化并不明显,从而对模式的进一步发展和完善提出了新的要求。
基金supported by the National Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (Grant No.2012CB955902)China Meteorological Special Project (Grant Nos.GYHY201206016 and GYHY 201406022)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41125017)the Public science and technology research funds projects of ocean (Grant No.201105019-3)
文摘The performances of four Chinese AGCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） in the simulation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation （BSISO） are assessed. The authors focus on the major characteristics of BSISO： the intensity, significant period, and propagation. The results show that the four AGCMs can reproduce boreal summer intraseasonal signals of precipitation; however their limitations are also evident. Compared with the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation （CMAP） data, the models underestimate the strength of the intraseasonal oscillation （ISO） over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean （IO） during the boreal summer （May to October）, but overestimate the intraseasonal variability over the western Pacific （WP）. In the model results, the westward propagation dominates, whereas the eastward propagation dominates in the CMAP data. The northward propagation in these models is tilted southwest-northeast, which is also different from the CMAP result. Thus, there is not a northeast-southwest tilted rain belt revolution off the equator during the BSISO＇s eastward journey in the models. The biases of the BSISO are consistent with the summer mean state, especially the vertical shear. Analysis also shows that there is a positive feedback between the intraseasonal precipitation and the summer mean precipitation. The positive feedback processes may amplify the models＇ biases in the BSISO simulation.
文摘The IAP 2-L AGCM is modified by introducing a set of climatological surface albedo data into the model for substituting the model′s original surface albedo parameterization. The comparison between the observations and the simulation results by the modified model shows that the general features of the East Asian summer monsoon can be well reproduced by the modified IAP 2-L AGCM. Especially for the simulation of monsoon precipitation, the modified model can well reproduce not only the monthly mean features of the summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia, but also the stepwise advance and retreat of the East Asian summer monsoon rainbelt. Analysis results demonstrate that the good simulation of the monsoon rainfall is closely related to the reasonable simulation of the large scale general circulation over East Asian region, such as the western Pacific subtropical high, Asian monsoon low and the low level flows. The good performance of the modified model in the rainfall simulation shows its great potential to serve as a useful tool for the prediction of summer drought/flood events over East Asia.
基金supported by the Special Scientific Research Fund of the Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China[grant number GYHY01406021]National Key Research and Development Program[grant number 2016YFC0402702]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41575095,41175073]
基金supported jointly by the Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA-05110303)the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (Grant No. 2010CB951703)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41175070)Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (meteorology) administered by the Chinese Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Science and Technology (Grant No. GYHY201406001)Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Ministry of Education (Grand No. KLME1309)
文摘Recent studies have demonstrated a persistent decreasing trend in the spring sensible heat(SH) source over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) during the past three decades. By comparing simulations from nine state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation models(AGCMs) driven by historical forcing fields with both observational data and five reanalysis datasets, the authors found that the AGCMs are unable to reproduce the change in the SH flux over the TP. This deficiency arises because the observed decreasing trend in SH flux depends primarily on the change in surface wind speed according to the bulk formula, whereas in the models it is also influenced largely by changes in the land-air temperature difference related to the systematic cold bias. In addition, an obvious discrepancy exists in other aspects of the diabatic heating simulated by the models, suggesting that a significant improvement is required in the physical schemes associated with land surface processes and diabatic heating over the complicated topography.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41475052,41405058]China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[grant number 2015M571095]Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA11010403]
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA05110200]the Special Scientific Research Fund of the Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China[grant number GYHY201406021]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41575095,41175073,41575062,41520104008]
文摘By using IAP 9L AGCM, two sets of long-term climatological integration have been performed with the two different interpolation procedures for generating the daily surface boundary conditions. One interpolation procedure is the so-called “traditional” scheme, for which the daily surface boundary conditions are obtained by linearly interpolating between the observed monthly mean values, however the observed monthly means cannot be preserved after interpolation. The other one is the “new” scheme, for which the daily surface boundary conditions are obtained by linearly interpolating between the “artificial” monthly mean values which are based on, but are different from the observed ones, after interpolating with this new scheme, not only the observed monthly mean values are preserved, the time series of the new generated daily values is also more consistent with the observation. Comparison of the model results shows that the differences of the globally or zonally averaged fields between these two integrations are quite small, and this is due to the compensating effect between the different regions. However, the differences of the two patterns (the global or regional geographical distributions), are quite significant, for example, the magnitude of the difference in the JJA mean rainfall between these two integrations can exceed 2 mm/ day over Asian monsoon regions, and the difference in DJF mean surface air temperature can also exceed 2?C over this region. The fact that the model climatology depends quite strongly on the method of prescribing the daily surface boundary conditions suggests that in order to validate the climate model or to predict the short-term climate anomalies, either the “new? interpolation scheme or the high frequency surface boundary conditions (e.g., daily or weekly data instead of the monthly data) should be introduced. Meanwhile, as for the coupled model, the daily coupling scheme between the different component climate models ( e.g., atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models) is preferred in order to partly eliminate the “climate drift” problem which may appear during the course of direct coupling.
