The accounting information should help investors and creditors evaluate the amounts, timing, and uncertainty of firms＇ future cash receipts and disbursements. The Financial Accounting Standards Board （FASB） contend...The accounting information should help investors and creditors evaluate the amounts, timing, and uncertainty of firms＇ future cash receipts and disbursements. The Financial Accounting Standards Board （FASB） contends that accrual-based historical earnings are superior to cash flows in predicting future cash flows. But, Bowen, Burgstahler, and Daley （1986） showed that traditional measures of cash flows （net income （NI） plus depreciation and working capital from operations） appear to be better predictors of future cash flows than accrual accounting earnings. Since then, many researchers have articulated the importance of accounting data, especially cash flows and NI, in the predictive and forecasting processes. In this study, we empirically re-examined the ability of cash flows from operating activities （CFO） and accrual-based NI in predicting firms＇ bankruptcy. In the past, the results of this type of research were mixed. Differently from previous research, we focus on the timing of predictive ability, i.e., which indicator, cash flows or NI, is faster in predicting a firm＇s bankruptcy. We also investigate the timing of auditors＇ issuance of a going-concern opinion. The preliminary results show that the accrual-based NI is more accurate and faster than either CFO or audit opinion in predicting firms＇ failures. On average, NI signals a firm＇s bankruptcy 2.41 years before the bankruptcy filing, while CFO signals 1.48 years before filing. Auditors issued a going-concern opinion, another signal for firms＇ failure, to only 16 out of 41 bankrupt firms one year before bankruptcy, and no auditor issued the going-concern opinion two years before bankruptcy.展开更多
文摘The accounting information should help investors and creditors evaluate the amounts, timing, and uncertainty of firms＇ future cash receipts and disbursements. The Financial Accounting Standards Board （FASB） contends that accrual-based historical earnings are superior to cash flows in predicting future cash flows. But, Bowen, Burgstahler, and Daley （1986） showed that traditional measures of cash flows （net income （NI） plus depreciation and working capital from operations） appear to be better predictors of future cash flows than accrual accounting earnings. Since then, many researchers have articulated the importance of accounting data, especially cash flows and NI, in the predictive and forecasting processes. In this study, we empirically re-examined the ability of cash flows from operating activities （CFO） and accrual-based NI in predicting firms＇ bankruptcy. In the past, the results of this type of research were mixed. Differently from previous research, we focus on the timing of predictive ability, i.e., which indicator, cash flows or NI, is faster in predicting a firm＇s bankruptcy. We also investigate the timing of auditors＇ issuance of a going-concern opinion. The preliminary results show that the accrual-based NI is more accurate and faster than either CFO or audit opinion in predicting firms＇ failures. On average, NI signals a firm＇s bankruptcy 2.41 years before the bankruptcy filing, while CFO signals 1.48 years before filing. Auditors issued a going-concern opinion, another signal for firms＇ failure, to only 16 out of 41 bankrupt firms one year before bankruptcy, and no auditor issued the going-concern opinion two years before bankruptcy.
