Projection of the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Delta's potential submerged area due to sea level rise during the 21st century based on CMIP5 simulations

Projections of potential submerged area due to sea level rise are helpful for improving understanding of the influence of ongoing global warming on coastal areas. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is used to adaptively decompose the sea level time series in order to extract the secular trend component. Then the linear relationship between the global mean sea level （GMSL） change and the Zhujiang （Pearl） River Delta （PRD） sea level change is calculated： an increase of 1.0 m in the GMSL corresponds to a 1.3 m （uncertainty interval from 1.25 to 1.46 m） increase in the PRD. Based on this relationship and the GMSL rise projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios （representative concentration pathways, or RCPs, from low to high emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5）, the PRD sea level is calculated and projected for the period 2006-2100. By around the year 2050, the PRD sea level will rise 0.29 （0.21 to 0.40） m under RCP2.6, 0.31 （0.22 to 0.42） m under RCP4.5, and 0.34 （0.25 to 0.46） m under RCP8.5, respectively. By 2100, it will rise 0.59 （0.36 to 0.88） m, 0.71 （0.47 to 1.02） m, and 1.0 （0.68 to 1.41） m, respectively. In addition, considering the extreme value of relative sea level due to land subsidence （i.e., 0.20 m） and that obtained from intermonthly variability （i.e., 0.33 m）, the PRD sea level will rise 1.94 m by the year 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario with the upper uncertainty level （i.e., 1.41 m）. Accordingly, the potential submerged area is 8.57x103 km2 for the PRD, about 1.3 times its present area.

Projections of the Advance in the Start of the Growing Season during the 21st Century Based on CMIP5 Simulations

It is well-known that global warming due to anthropogenic atmospheric greenhouse effects advanced the start of the vegetation growing season （SOS） across the globe during the 20th century. Projections of further changes in the SOS for the 21st century under certain emissions scenarios （Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs） are useful for improving understanding of the consequences of global warming. In this study, we first evaluate a linear relationship between the SOS （defined using the normalized difference vegetation index） and the April temperature for most land areas of the Northern Hemisphere for 1982-2008. Based on this relationship and the ensemble projection of April temperature under RCPs from the latest state-of-the-art global coupled climate models, we show the possible changes in the SOS for most of the land areas of the Northern Hemisphere during the 21st century. By around 2040-59, the SOS will have advanced by -4.7 days under RCP2.6, -8.4 days under RCP4.5, and -10.1 days under RCPS.5, relative to 1985-2004. By 2080-99, it will have advanced by -4.3 days under RCP2.6, -11.3 days under RCP4.5, and -21.6 days under RCP8.5. The geographic pattern of SOS advance is considerably dependent on that of the temperature sensitivity of the SOS. The larger the temperature sensitivity, the larger the date-shift-rate of the SOS.