本文基于卫星遥感的观测海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)数据和自然资源部第一海洋研究所全球0.1°分辨率海浪-潮流-环流耦合数值预报模式(The surface wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model developed by First Ins...本文基于卫星遥感的观测海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)数据和自然资源部第一海洋研究所全球0.1°分辨率海浪-潮流-环流耦合数值预报模式(The surface wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model developed by First Institute of Oceanography,MNR,China,FIO-COM)的预报结果,采用线性回归模型和长短期记忆神经网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)对SST预报结果进行误差校正。利用2016—2021年的数据开展了一系列对比试验,线性回归模型基于局部线性的假设实现对下一时刻误差的预报,LSTM利用2016—2020年共56个月的历史偏差数据训练模型,使用2021年的数据进行检验。结果表明,线性回归模型和LSTM神经网络都可以改善预报结果,LSTM神经网络相对于线性回归模型的效果更好,SST误差降低70%左右;与线性回归模型相比,经LSTM校正后的各点的偏差的概率密度分布集中在0附近。LSTM方法在统计意义上优于线性拟合且结果更稳定,可进一步推广到海洋数值预报多要素偏差校正。展开更多
The SST variability during the summer period in the northeastern tropical Atlantic region (NTA) is characterized by an alternation of warming/cooling which represents 87% of the total variability. The aim of this pape...The SST variability during the summer period in the northeastern tropical Atlantic region (NTA) is characterized by an alternation of warming/cooling which represents 87% of the total variability. The aim of this paper is to study the atmospheric responses as well as the precipitation associated with these oceanic conditions. Based on Reynolds’s SST from 1982 to 2019, a normalized Northern Tropical Atlantic index (NTAI) is computed into the region between 15° - 25°W;12° - 16°N and a composite analysis is then performed. It is shown that the NTAI is significantly correlated with the SST’s first principal component mode (PC1) in this region. Moreover, the composite of SST anomalies and atmospheric parameters exhibits a strong local ocean-atmosphere interaction which highly impacts the large-scale atmospheric circulation in West Africa, particularly in the western Sahel. An in-depth analysis shows that the atmospheric response to the warm (cold) SST is a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation in the lower layers near the West Africa Coast. This cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation strengthens/reduces the moisture transport towards the continent in the low levels. In the middle layers of the atmosphere (500 hPa), the warm (cold) composite is associated with a decrease (increase) in the intensity of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) whereas, in the upper atmosphere (200 hPa), the strengthening (weakening) of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) is observed. With regard to the composite precipitation field, a positive/negative SST anomaly is associated with significantly enhanced/reduced rainfall in the western Sahelian region. It is found that this relationship (correlation) increases as we are closer to the coasts.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42105063]the Youth Training Project of the Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions[project number CAMT-202302]a funded project of Hengyang Normal University[project number 2022QD11].
文摘本文基于卫星遥感的观测海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)数据和自然资源部第一海洋研究所全球0.1°分辨率海浪-潮流-环流耦合数值预报模式(The surface wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model developed by First Institute of Oceanography,MNR,China,FIO-COM)的预报结果,采用线性回归模型和长短期记忆神经网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)对SST预报结果进行误差校正。利用2016—2021年的数据开展了一系列对比试验,线性回归模型基于局部线性的假设实现对下一时刻误差的预报,LSTM利用2016—2020年共56个月的历史偏差数据训练模型,使用2021年的数据进行检验。结果表明,线性回归模型和LSTM神经网络都可以改善预报结果,LSTM神经网络相对于线性回归模型的效果更好,SST误差降低70%左右;与线性回归模型相比,经LSTM校正后的各点的偏差的概率密度分布集中在0附近。LSTM方法在统计意义上优于线性拟合且结果更稳定,可进一步推广到海洋数值预报多要素偏差校正。
文摘The SST variability during the summer period in the northeastern tropical Atlantic region (NTA) is characterized by an alternation of warming/cooling which represents 87% of the total variability. The aim of this paper is to study the atmospheric responses as well as the precipitation associated with these oceanic conditions. Based on Reynolds’s SST from 1982 to 2019, a normalized Northern Tropical Atlantic index (NTAI) is computed into the region between 15° - 25°W;12° - 16°N and a composite analysis is then performed. It is shown that the NTAI is significantly correlated with the SST’s first principal component mode (PC1) in this region. Moreover, the composite of SST anomalies and atmospheric parameters exhibits a strong local ocean-atmosphere interaction which highly impacts the large-scale atmospheric circulation in West Africa, particularly in the western Sahel. An in-depth analysis shows that the atmospheric response to the warm (cold) SST is a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation in the lower layers near the West Africa Coast. This cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation strengthens/reduces the moisture transport towards the continent in the low levels. In the middle layers of the atmosphere (500 hPa), the warm (cold) composite is associated with a decrease (increase) in the intensity of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) whereas, in the upper atmosphere (200 hPa), the strengthening (weakening) of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) is observed. With regard to the composite precipitation field, a positive/negative SST anomaly is associated with significantly enhanced/reduced rainfall in the western Sahelian region. It is found that this relationship (correlation) increases as we are closer to the coasts.
