This research aims to test the housing price dynamics when considering heterogeneous boundedly rational expectations such as naive expectation, adaptive expectation and biased belief. The housing market is investigate...This research aims to test the housing price dynamics when considering heterogeneous boundedly rational expectations such as naive expectation, adaptive expectation and biased belief. The housing market is investigated as an evolutionary system with heterogeneous and competing expectations. The results show that the dynamics of the expected housing price varies substantially when heterogeneous expectations are considered together with some other endogenous factors. Simulation results explain some stylized phenomena such as equilibrium or oscillation, convergence or divergence, and over-shooting or under-shooting. Furthermore, the results suggest that variation of the proportion of groups of agents is basically dependent on the selected strategies. It also indicates that control policies should be chosen carefully in consistence with a unique real estate market during a unique period since certain parameter portfolio may increase or suppress oscillation.展开更多
House price expectations(HPE)is a key factor affecting housing market fluctuations.Taking Beijing as an example,this study innovatively proposes an internet data-based measurement of HPE and text analysis-based quanti...House price expectations(HPE)is a key factor affecting housing market fluctuations.Taking Beijing as an example,this study innovatively proposes an internet data-based measurement of HPE and text analysis-based quantification of media reports from media attention and media attitudes.Regression model is performed to empirically test the impact of media reports on the level and accuracy of HPE.The empirical results show no significant relationship between media attention and the level of HPE,but a significant relationship to the accuracy of HPE.The higher the media attention(i.e.,the more intensive the media reports),the smaller the deviation between HPE and actual housing prices.The attitude of media reports is significantly related to the level and accuracy of HPE.It is easier to guide the formation of HPE through media reports with clear opinions,indicating that media could promote the sustainable development of the real estate market.展开更多
文摘This research aims to test the housing price dynamics when considering heterogeneous boundedly rational expectations such as naive expectation, adaptive expectation and biased belief. The housing market is investigated as an evolutionary system with heterogeneous and competing expectations. The results show that the dynamics of the expected housing price varies substantially when heterogeneous expectations are considered together with some other endogenous factors. Simulation results explain some stylized phenomena such as equilibrium or oscillation, convergence or divergence, and over-shooting or under-shooting. Furthermore, the results suggest that variation of the proportion of groups of agents is basically dependent on the selected strategies. It also indicates that control policies should be chosen carefully in consistence with a unique real estate market during a unique period since certain parameter portfolio may increase or suppress oscillation.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71573244,71532013,71850014)
文摘House price expectations(HPE)is a key factor affecting housing market fluctuations.Taking Beijing as an example,this study innovatively proposes an internet data-based measurement of HPE and text analysis-based quantification of media reports from media attention and media attitudes.Regression model is performed to empirically test the impact of media reports on the level and accuracy of HPE.The empirical results show no significant relationship between media attention and the level of HPE,but a significant relationship to the accuracy of HPE.The higher the media attention(i.e.,the more intensive the media reports),the smaller the deviation between HPE and actual housing prices.The attitude of media reports is significantly related to the level and accuracy of HPE.It is easier to guide the formation of HPE through media reports with clear opinions,indicating that media could promote the sustainable development of the real estate market.
